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Substrate X-Ray Lithography, a New American Foundry

newsletter.semianalysis.com
2 points·by jrk·قبل 8 أشهر·0 comments

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jrk
·الشهر الماضي·discuss
It's not that you need to turn on some extra library backends and rebuild, it's that the abstractions themselves are fundamentally at odds with hitting peak performance on many things so you have to rewrite your code.

Individual image processing operations are often very low arithmetic intensity. If you don't combine them into much larger subroutines—which are necessarily less generic and orthogonal—you spend all your time waiting on memory between every little op.
jrk
·قبل شهرين·discuss
To make "next to nothing" concrete: MIT EECS PhD students are currently paid about $4700/mo. This is substantially less than they'd make in industry, but it's around the US median personal income across all working-age adults, and well above the average 24 year-old. They frequently make a substantial extra at summer internships, putting them well above US median in the years when they do.

Also: it is school, not just a job. They are developing deep expertise and specialized skills. As a result, among other things, their earning potential tends to be significantly higher coming out of the PhD than out of undergrad.
jrk
·قبل 5 أشهر·discuss
The 1TW is the rated peak power output. It's essentially the same in space. The thing that changes is the average fraction of this sustained over time (due to day/night/seasons/atmosphere, or the lack of all of the above).

It's still the same 1TW theoretical peak in space, it's just that you can actually use close to that full capacity all the time, whereas on earth you'd need to over-provision substantially and add storage, so 1TW of panels can only drive perhaps a few hundred GW of average load.
jrk
·قبل 6 أشهر·discuss
The PyTorch version is using the GPU (with Metal Performance Shaders); this C version is currently using (in the docs I saw) a single CPU core, with AMX (via Apple Accelerate BLAS) but not yet with OpenMP for parallelism. It’s not slow because LLM code is bad, but because it’s not running on the same hardware. That said, it’s also not as fast as it is because of the LLM—all the critical code is in kernel libraries it calls (the same as for PyTorch).
jrk
·قبل 7 أشهر·discuss
Why are GPUs necessarily higher latency than TPUs? Both require roughly the same arithmetic intensity and use the same memory technology at roughly the same bandwidth.
jrk
·قبل 7 أشهر·discuss
Not sure when you last tried, but Gemini, Claude, and ChatGPT have all supported pretty effective PDF input for quite a while.
jrk
·قبل 8 أشهر·discuss
It is not only not that much more complex, it is often less complex.

Higher-level services like PaaS (Heroku and above) genuinely do abstract a number of details. But EC2 is just renting pseudo-bare computers—they save no complexity, and they add more by being diskless and requiring networked storage (EBS). The main thing they give you is the ability to spin up arbitrarily many more identical instances at a moment’s notice (usually, at least theoretically, though the amount of the time that you actually hit unavailability or shadow quotas is surprisingly high).
jrk
·قبل 8 أشهر·discuss
You know that AWS will come back up. You definitely don’t know whether your own instances will come back or if you’ll need to redeploy it all.
jrk
·قبل 8 أشهر·discuss
Yes but you can also do the same thing with autoregressive models just by making them smaller. This tradeoff always exists, the question is whether the Pareto curve for diffusion models ever crosses or dominates the best autoregressive option at the same throughput (or quality).
jrk
·قبل 8 أشهر·discuss
I think they weren’t asking “why can’t Gemini 3, the model, just do good transcription,” they were asking “why can’t Gemini, the API/app, recognize the task as something best solved not by a single generic model call, but by breaking it down into an initial subtask for a specialized ASR model followed by LLM cleanup, automatically, rather than me having to manually break down the task to achieve that result.”
jrk
·قبل 9 أشهر·discuss
I think the point was not that gem-grade synthetic diamonds are ugly, but that, as industry masters gem-grade production, presumably below-gem-grade production (“ugly synthetic diamonds”) would become cheap enough to deploy in more engineering settings where diamond’s other unique properties were the key concern.
jrk
·قبل 9 أشهر·discuss
This is an established, though advanced, idea.

Sourcegraph Amp (https://sourcegraph.com/amp) has had this exact feature built in for quite a while: "ask the oracle" triggered an O1 Pro sub-agent (now, I believe, GPT-5 High), and searching can be delegated to cheaper, faster, longer-context sub-agents based on Gemini 2.5 Flash.
jrk
·قبل 9 أشهر·discuss
It is a few generations behind: Blackwell is still on N4, which is an N5 variant. Meanwhile TSMC has been shipping N3 family processes in large volume products (Apple) for more than 2 years already, and is starting to ramp the next major node family (N2) for Apple et al. next year.

NVIDIA has often lagged on process, since they drive such large dies, but having the first major project demo wafer on N4 now is literally 2 generations behind Taiwan.
jrk
·قبل 9 أشهر·discuss
If you go just a few posts back in Peter's own blog he has a video of himself doing exactly this:

https://steipete.me/posts/2025/live-coding-session-building-...

He has posted others over the past few months, but they don't seem to be on his blog currently.

As @simonw mentions in a peer comment, Armin Ronacher also has several great streams (and he's less caffeinated and frenetic than Peter :)
jrk
·قبل 9 أشهر·discuss
People of course often do read (and even modify) the model-generated code, but doing so is specifically not “vibe coding” according to the original definition, which was not meant to encompass “any programming with an LLM” but something much more specific: https://simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/19/vibe-coding/
jrk
·قبل 10 أشهر·discuss
Many people see top-line rate increases and assume the issue is supply cost, but transmission and distribution have become over 50% of cost everywhere I’ve lived, and are growing fast, regardless of underlying generation or fuel costs. Distribution alone (the neighborhood/local grid) is now roughly matching the supply cost on my MA bill, and though I last lived in CA in 2019, I would be surprised if PG&E weren’t similar.
jrk
·قبل 10 أشهر·discuss
eInk devices are very much not converging to 16:9 or wider aspect ratios. This device is intentionally the size and shape of a reporter's notebook, but there are virtually no other eInk tablets which diverge significantly from more common paper aspect ratios – they all (ReMarkable, Supernote, Boox, Kindle, etc.) are and continue to be exactly what you say you want.
jrk
·قبل 11 شهرًا·discuss
The OP is talking about fabrication technology, not end products. Even years into their delays getting to 10nm, Intel had more advanced fabrication technology than TSMC until N7 reached volume in 2018.