American Apathy: Our Declining Interest in Covid-19 Cases and Deaths(blog.thefactual.com)
blog.thefactual.com
American Apathy: Our Declining Interest in Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
https://blog.thefactual.com/american-apathy-our-declining-interest-in-covid-19-cases-and-deaths
87 comments
I agree, I am totally drained of everything covid, its been 24/7 news saturation since March(exceptions being election, BLM protests). Once I get my shots and my family gets theirs I am going to take a much needed and extended break from the news.
The lack of major outbreaks post-BLM was something that made me go "Hmmm."
B117 variant wasn't circulating then, and we've known for a while that while it's not "no risk" outdoor activity is "lower risk". (EDIT: I'm not suggesting that meeting people outside is a good idea, I think lockdowns are needed, especially with B117 around).
Here's a respected not-idiot virologist talking about it.
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1348771251758784517?s=2...
Here's a respected not-idiot virologist talking about it.
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1348771251758784517?s=2...
That person didn’t seem to weigh in on outdoor group transmission at the time.
(Infect OR disease) (from:mugecevik) until:2020-06-30 since:2020-05-01
(Infect OR disease) (from:mugecevik) until:2020-06-30 since:2020-05-01
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At one stage I was to some degree modulating the amount of caution I exhibited based on the case numbers both nationally and in my area.
I was trying to do a rough cost/benefit analysis in my head whenever there was social pressue to do something other than stay the hell out of everyone's way.
(Things have got bad enough in the UK since then that I'm now able to do the simpler thing - which is just stay the hell out of everyone's way. Much less taxing on the brain)
I was trying to do a rough cost/benefit analysis in my head whenever there was social pressue to do something other than stay the hell out of everyone's way.
(Things have got bad enough in the UK since then that I'm now able to do the simpler thing - which is just stay the hell out of everyone's way. Much less taxing on the brain)
I'm always skeptical of people telling me what I should think or feel. It's almost never for my own benefit
I question the supposition. We are interested. Since November, many I know went from occasionally seeing friends outside socially distant to keeping to themselves. People don’t need to google about it, we know it’s bad. Of courses search metrics will decline.
Emotionally, I think we feel defeated. We’re counting down the days till a functional government can be put in place and forestall disaster. It feels like everyday we need to wait causes more needless death. But sadly there’s little we can do about this.
Emotionally, I think we feel defeated. We’re counting down the days till a functional government can be put in place and forestall disaster. It feels like everyday we need to wait causes more needless death. But sadly there’s little we can do about this.
I also wonder if there is better reporting of the data, so searches are not necessary. For example, I can read my local news online, and get the appropriate daily numbers for both the country and my county.
That's what I was wondering as well. I can't imagine it applies to everyone in every region, but after Jan/Feb 2020, I personally didn't need to search Google (or wherever) for this info because it became a prominent feature on the landing page of the NYT and other news outlets I check fairly frequently.
The trend is pronounced enough that there's likely more at play than just "see on website instead of searching" but "I already know it's bad so I don't bother looking it up" and "I already see this data regularly on other outlets without specifically searching for it" surely combine to cause some of this result.
The trend is pronounced enough that there's likely more at play than just "see on website instead of searching" but "I already know it's bad so I don't bother looking it up" and "I already see this data regularly on other outlets without specifically searching for it" surely combine to cause some of this result.
Exactly, I already have my sources for updates and I don't need to search anymore.
I'm not sure what a future government can do.
Early on, some crucial things come to mind (Federal mask mandate, directing Federal funds to rapid testing and PPE), but, now, the wildfire rages everywhere. Making vaccines free, including for illegal immigrants (it's incredibly stupid and self-defeating to deny it to them, as some places have purportedly done), and directing a lot of resources toward distribution and education are the only obvious things to me.
Like in an RPG, some countries put points into skill trees that lets them handle this kind of problem very well. If the U.S. has a weakness, culturally, legally, economically, and geographically, a pandemic is it; it's just not the kind of thing it ever specced to handle.
Early on, some crucial things come to mind (Federal mask mandate, directing Federal funds to rapid testing and PPE), but, now, the wildfire rages everywhere. Making vaccines free, including for illegal immigrants (it's incredibly stupid and self-defeating to deny it to them, as some places have purportedly done), and directing a lot of resources toward distribution and education are the only obvious things to me.
Like in an RPG, some countries put points into skill trees that lets them handle this kind of problem very well. If the U.S. has a weakness, culturally, legally, economically, and geographically, a pandemic is it; it's just not the kind of thing it ever specced to handle.
> Federal mask mandate
I'm not sure what difference that would make since masks are already mandated everywhere by state and local authorities. The real issue with masks is that (a) many people don't wear them properly (I routinely see people with it only over their mouth, not their nose, or with a huge gap between their face and the mask) and (b) anything that covers your face qualifies as a "mask", no matter how coarse the weave of whatever material it is made of.
I'm not sure what difference that would make since masks are already mandated everywhere by state and local authorities. The real issue with masks is that (a) many people don't wear them properly (I routinely see people with it only over their mouth, not their nose, or with a huge gap between their face and the mask) and (b) anything that covers your face qualifies as a "mask", no matter how coarse the weave of whatever material it is made of.
People say this but the obvious point is that flu numbers are much lower if not vanishingly small, suggesting people are in fact largely complying with mitigation efforts.
So the only argument I see otherwise is that there's some radical difference in the R number between the viruses such that masks only lower substantially enough for flu and not SARS-CoV-2. But that's a much more specific argument that I don't see being argued much less substantiated and proven.
So the only argument I see otherwise is that there's some radical difference in the R number between the viruses such that masks only lower substantially enough for flu and not SARS-CoV-2. But that's a much more specific argument that I don't see being argued much less substantiated and proven.
> flu numbers are much lower if not vanishingly small, suggesting people are in fact largely complying with mitigation efforts
The flu viruses are a different class of virus (rhinovirus) from SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) and could be expected to be affected differently by mitigation efforts. I don't know that the much lower flu numbers tell us that people are wearing masks properly; they could be due simply to social distancing and people staying home. Also, AFAIK there is not significant evidence of transmission of flu by asymptomatic people, whereas there is for COVID-19, so it is easier for people to avoid transmitting flu by self-isolating if they have symptoms.
The flu viruses are a different class of virus (rhinovirus) from SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) and could be expected to be affected differently by mitigation efforts. I don't know that the much lower flu numbers tell us that people are wearing masks properly; they could be due simply to social distancing and people staying home. Also, AFAIK there is not significant evidence of transmission of flu by asymptomatic people, whereas there is for COVID-19, so it is easier for people to avoid transmitting flu by self-isolating if they have symptoms.
News organizations bombard us with negative coverage 24/7 for months on end. Endless wall to wall coverage.
And now journalists are writing about American apathy.
Give me a break. The front page of virtually every major news site is littered with Covid data. On an individual level, what more do you want from me? I wear a mask, haven't visited elderly relatives, haven't traveled much, etc.
It feels like journalists and news organization can only survive on constant outrage. And if we aren't outraged enough, they still complain.
And now journalists are writing about American apathy.
Give me a break. The front page of virtually every major news site is littered with Covid data. On an individual level, what more do you want from me? I wear a mask, haven't visited elderly relatives, haven't traveled much, etc.
It feels like journalists and news organization can only survive on constant outrage. And if we aren't outraged enough, they still complain.
Idiotic article with horrible conclusions.
I stopped searching for COVID because I don't have to.
Every page I visit, every news site I load, has COVID numbers and news at the top of the page.
It's thrown in our face every where. Even the google home page has a COVID link.
I'm not apathetic at all, idiot. I'm overloaded with COVID info and numbers and death,
I can't escape it.
I believe a lot of the things that got cancelled due to covid-19 didn't really need to be. There is somewhat of a cult centered around shutting everything down without any sense of nuance. Not enough respect has been given to the ability of people to decide for themselves what is in their best interests.
Even worse is when everything isn't shut down, but some places (probably politically connected) are inexplicably left open. If absolutely everything was shut down there'd be a certain (warped) sense of fairness at least.
In my town the swimming pool in my condo complex was shut down when COVID-19 began and never reopened. I was the only one who ever used it. They could've just made it maximum capacity 2 or something. Meanwhile, the bar down the street was left open until it became a superspreader event. Anecdotally, I think we've all seen the idiocy and inconsistency at all levels of government which adds to the cynicism and apathy.
In my town the swimming pool in my condo complex was shut down when COVID-19 began and never reopened. I was the only one who ever used it. They could've just made it maximum capacity 2 or something. Meanwhile, the bar down the street was left open until it became a superspreader event. Anecdotally, I think we've all seen the idiocy and inconsistency at all levels of government which adds to the cynicism and apathy.
My apathy wore out once N95 masks became cheap and available - Costco will ship them to your door for $2.70 each.
I wear N95 all the time in public, and if you don’t want to get this or spread it, it’s basically entirely in your power.
The only excuse is that someone is mentally deficient or almost unable to draw breath.
I wear N95 all the time in public, and if you don’t want to get this or spread it, it’s basically entirely in your power.
The only excuse is that someone is mentally deficient or almost unable to draw breath.
I live in a country with a mask obligation, but I have now joined so many of my fellow citizens in wearing my mask badly or often taking it off when I can get away with it in public. Why is this?
It is because we cannot ignore the rules completely (that might attract fines), but mass lax observance of the rules might communicate to elected officials and potential candidates for office that people are getting tired of lockdowns and restrictions after nearly a year and we want some other approach. (For example, as someone already advanced in years, I personally feel that the rights of people now in their teens and early twenties to enjoy normal coming of age things like big group events and the usual courtship rituals takes higher priority than the most vulnerable COVID demographic – half of our deaths have been in care homes.) A candidate who looks at how willing the public is to accept the restrictions imposed on them, and who offers to change the state of affairs, might get my and others’ vote.
Now that we know so much about the virus, there is a large subjective element to whether an approach to the epidemic is “right” or “wrong”, and an electorate has the right to push its elected officials towards the course of action which they feel is preferable.
It is because we cannot ignore the rules completely (that might attract fines), but mass lax observance of the rules might communicate to elected officials and potential candidates for office that people are getting tired of lockdowns and restrictions after nearly a year and we want some other approach. (For example, as someone already advanced in years, I personally feel that the rights of people now in their teens and early twenties to enjoy normal coming of age things like big group events and the usual courtship rituals takes higher priority than the most vulnerable COVID demographic – half of our deaths have been in care homes.) A candidate who looks at how willing the public is to accept the restrictions imposed on them, and who offers to change the state of affairs, might get my and others’ vote.
Now that we know so much about the virus, there is a large subjective element to whether an approach to the epidemic is “right” or “wrong”, and an electorate has the right to push its elected officials towards the course of action which they feel is preferable.
I have a super snotty nose and live in a cold place so I don’t wear it outside. I walk away or cover mouth when someone gets close. But I’ve read articles that give numbers ie. x% chance of getting it if you are within y feet for z minutes in an enclosed room, so I think me walking outside without a mask is not an issue, despite the dirty looks from lots of people.
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My opinion - you should consider wearing a light weight cloth mask outside to keep your plume of potentially infectious air closer to you.
Strong breath during exercise can travel quite a distance.
Strong breath during exercise can travel quite a distance.
I honestly don't see that on any reputable retailer I could find
Costco is good about vetting their suppliers - and I've followed the paper trail to the FDA registration. Sadly, they're made in China but I can vouch for their quality - passed our bitter-smoke fit test.
https://www.costco.com/niosh-n95-round-respirator%2C-100-mas...
https://www.costco.com/niosh-n95-round-respirator%2C-100-mas...
1- Your first sentence implies you stopped being apathetic, which seems to run contrary to your implied point.
2- "if you don't want to get this or spread it..." that's fine, except untrue. If joe super-spreader is running around super-spreading, he's going to get kids. If you think kids suddenly stopped being high-spreading vectors, I don't think you understand children. People are stuck making tough choices (especially in the US) because they have little financial support in order to make spread-minimizing decisions. Blaming anyone who gets sick on stupidity isn't fair. A lot of people are being forced to make choices between going to a job that encourages spreading behavior or going into financial ruin.
That said, a vast majority of spread is due to very stupid (or just plain reckless) people making decisions for their community.
That said, a vast majority of spread is due to very stupid (or just plain reckless) people making decisions for their community.
Your correct - I should care more about people that need to put food on the table.
However they too can wear an N95 resperator for less than $3. A supply of ten lasts about two months of rotated use.
A good use of our tax dollars would be to supply them public with them.
However they too can wear an N95 resperator for less than $3. A supply of ten lasts about two months of rotated use.
A good use of our tax dollars would be to supply them public with them.
Think it has something to do with the ubiquitous breakdown of mental health, leading to cultural war and inevitable cultural Balkanization, at a minimum?
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> humans have a hard time comprehending large numbers ... the difference between no one dying and one person dying is quite large, but the difference between the 100th and 101st death is far less impactful.
I think this data illustrates the exact opposite of what the researchers claim: people are actually pretty good at intuiting danger. A new danger that's never been seen is worthy of attention in a way that the 101st death is not.
There's plenty of studies about the ways humans fail at assessing risk, I just think the above is not one of them.
Also, news is just one type of item on everyone's data feed that's mixed with fake IG posts, fake news and dishonest ads. That approach makes as much sense as buying your groceries at the sewage treatment plant.
I think this data illustrates the exact opposite of what the researchers claim: people are actually pretty good at intuiting danger. A new danger that's never been seen is worthy of attention in a way that the 101st death is not.
There's plenty of studies about the ways humans fail at assessing risk, I just think the above is not one of them.
Also, news is just one type of item on everyone's data feed that's mixed with fake IG posts, fake news and dishonest ads. That approach makes as much sense as buying your groceries at the sewage treatment plant.
IMO what the author call "Apathy" we call "focus in trying to survive" and "accepting the new normal". That's exactly the same feeling and reaction that people living in Syria and Iraq have after living years in a War environment.
Some people look at the science and numbers, and aren't that worried about it. Nothing to do with politics. Death rates have just passed 1 in 1000 people, skewing older and with co-morbidities. Double or triple that and this should burn itself out [0]. For a lot of people that is not enough risk to justify wanting to upend their lives for a year or two. New diseases are part of nature.
[0] https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...
[0] https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...
Regardless of the topic is this not how interest in any such time duration based event works on the human level? Given everything in the world is now perceived as "real-time" most can only consume so much before having no more interest for any such topic. Foregoing listing other time duration based current events here, of which globally there are many, could it also be stated that people are showing 'fatigue' for several other major issues as well? A separate topic which comes to my mind and is applicable to what I stated above is that of cybersecurity.
Eh, count me in those stats I guess. I don't know if apathy is the right term though. I searched for stats fairly frequently but not anymore. We have a vaccine, the story isn't likely to change much for a while. I will continue distancing in relative isolation which has kept me from getting ill for a year now. Maybe it won't in the next few months, but I kind of doubt it.
What exactly would I learn from searching about the latest COVID death stats? We're beyond the point of arguing with others about on takes on it. It's no longer a political issue of paramount importance.
Things are likely to get worse for a month or two and then gradually get significantly better.
What exactly would I learn from searching about the latest COVID death stats? We're beyond the point of arguing with others about on takes on it. It's no longer a political issue of paramount importance.
Things are likely to get worse for a month or two and then gradually get significantly better.
Agreed. Without looking at the stats I can tell you new cases and deaths are pretty much the highest they’ve ever been.
>>It's no longer a political issue of paramount importance.
Found the guy who can afford to pay his rent/bills and buy food!
Found the guy who can afford to pay his rent/bills and buy food!
How does me debating COVID now help anyone pay their bills?
I'd argue that if anything, people who have difficulties paying bills and buying groceries have even less capacity to perform daily online searches for COVID deaths.
Something can be important without it being politically important.
COVID was very politically important when we were choosing a president. Now the gameplan seems more or less settled.
COVID was very politically important when we were choosing a president. Now the gameplan seems more or less settled.
It's not surprising, and it's disingenuous to accuse people of apathy. In several flu seasons, hospitals have been overwhelmed, tent beds set up, etc, and most people don't care because the flu is 'normal'. COVID is becoming 'normal', which is good, because it's not going away, so we all need to learn to deal with it.
This is like accusing those in the 50s for being apathetic about polio, because they didn't upend their entire life to protect their children from this incredibly deadly and disfiguring disease. When humans are confronted with a problem they simply cannot meaningfully prevent, they tend to ignore it and get on with their lives.
This is like accusing those in the 50s for being apathetic about polio, because they didn't upend their entire life to protect their children from this incredibly deadly and disfiguring disease. When humans are confronted with a problem they simply cannot meaningfully prevent, they tend to ignore it and get on with their lives.
Everyone is tired of COVID. I stopped looking at the numbers daily, but still take a look at least once a week.
We have a baby, it is hard to see doctors/dentists as we don't want to take him there. We never go to stores together and someone needs to watch him. Daycare doesn't seem safe yet for us, so we are doing our best.
Majority of parents work, many kids now study from home. This is putting an insane pressure on the parents.
I'm not suffering from "psychic numbing", by now I know the risks, I am just TIRED physically and mentally. What else can an average citizen do? Distance, wear a mask, suck it up and wait for your turn to get a vaccine. Searching COVID daily does nothing.
We have a baby, it is hard to see doctors/dentists as we don't want to take him there. We never go to stores together and someone needs to watch him. Daycare doesn't seem safe yet for us, so we are doing our best.
Majority of parents work, many kids now study from home. This is putting an insane pressure on the parents.
I'm not suffering from "psychic numbing", by now I know the risks, I am just TIRED physically and mentally. What else can an average citizen do? Distance, wear a mask, suck it up and wait for your turn to get a vaccine. Searching COVID daily does nothing.
My wife is pregnant so I want to avoid complications and that's why I've been stricter on social distancing - but assuming your baby is more mature and you don't have preexisting conditions/are in 30s why would you be avoiding doctor/dentist - it seems excessive.
From what I understand under 30 there's a greater risk of complications from flu sideeffects than COVID. You shouldn't be visiting risk groups anyway and I'm not saying go out to party but avoiding useful activities seems excessive.
My wife won't be vaccinated till she starts breastfeeding and neither will my infant buy I won't avoid doctor appointments because of it.
From what I understand under 30 there's a greater risk of complications from flu sideeffects than COVID. You shouldn't be visiting risk groups anyway and I'm not saying go out to party but avoiding useful activities seems excessive.
My wife won't be vaccinated till she starts breastfeeding and neither will my infant buy I won't avoid doctor appointments because of it.
We are not avoiding doctors or dentists. We just don't want to take our baby with this makes scheduling quite difficult. Covid can be dangerous with 0 pre-existing conditions. I'm not talking about survival rates here. Many are having ongoing issues with breathing months after covid.
If every individual did only the essential things, and cut down on unnecessary contact, US would not be where it is today.
If every individual did only the essential things, and cut down on unnecessary contact, US would not be where it is today.
Out of interest, how much general awareness is there that a more infectious strain is now the dominant version in the Uk, and the situation is likely to get significantly worse in the US quite quickly?
I don't get the sense that people realize how much more problematic it is.
They've heard on the news that it spreads faster, but they haven't digested how much faster or what that means when health resources are already taxed.
They've heard on the news that it spreads faster, but they haven't digested how much faster or what that means when health resources are already taxed.
Well, all I can say is to the people about 6 months ago (on hacker news) that said the death rate was now under control because of things we were doing. I told you so. It was the natural vitamin D that helped during the summer.
All we can do now is try to encourage doctors and hospitals to start administering cholecalciferol at large bolus doses.
https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/
All we can do now is try to encourage doctors and hospitals to start administering cholecalciferol at large bolus doses.
https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/
If the death rate was reduced due to sun exposure leading to more vitamin D in people's systems, then wouldn't the southern hemisphere show an opposite cycle to the northern hemisphere? I'm not seeing that in the current data.
if was just Vitamin D, Brazil wouldn't be among the top 3 countries. Specially the Northeast from Brazil - where you have 365 days/year of Sun - has one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 infections. Unfortunately isn't so easy like that.
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Its because people are not getting enough vit. D. I take 2000iu daily, drink a glass of milk almost daily(along with a protein mix, for workouts). Eat Chicken|Beef|Fish daily and run almost 5 days a week in the middle of the day to get maximum sunlight in Southern California. I had a blood test a few weeks ago thinking I was over-doing it on vit. D and guess what, my levels were slightly lower than average(though not deficient).
People are not getting enough in general, I would strongly suggest to request a blood test from your Dr. and up your levels via supplements or proper foods/sunlight exposure. I think in general humans are meant to be outside alot and being forced indoors has not been a good thing for us as a species.
People are not getting enough in general, I would strongly suggest to request a blood test from your Dr. and up your levels via supplements or proper foods/sunlight exposure. I think in general humans are meant to be outside alot and being forced indoors has not been a good thing for us as a species.
I don't know guys I give up. It seems like I am trying to shout this from the rooftops and it's just skepticism. I don't know if the people replying are just cynical. I can't seem to reach any doctors. There's just a shit-ton of research in that link and I just don't get why everyone is just so skeptical from all the PhD's listed.
Maybe this will help:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2mLz-Xdpg
or
https://vitamindforall.org/letter.html
Maybe this will help:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2mLz-Xdpg
or
https://vitamindforall.org/letter.html
In many European countries the infection curve literally plummeted in May, long before anyone could have possibly replenished their levels naturally, some being under strict lockdown.
What is the mechanism by which Vitamin D production is blocked in Florida, Texas, and California?
People stuck indoors combined with insulin resistance, poor diet, high stress. You only get about 1000 IU's of D3 synthesis per hour for type 3 skin, 2000 IU's for types 1 and 2 skin and that is assuming decent body exposure. It is even lower with type 4 and 5 skin. Most people in that latitude have types 3 and 4 skin. D3 is also measured incorrectly. Medical facilities measure 25-hydroxy which is not showing how much is then converted by the kidneys to 1 25-dihydroxy, the active form of the D3 hormone. People with diabetes and pre-diabetes can't convert the 25 hydroxy as efficiently thus needing higher intake. People with kidney damage can't convert the 25 hydroxy to 1 25-dihydroxy as effeciently. Diabetes and insulin resistance can cause dysfunction in the kidneys. About 80 million Americans are pre-diabetic [1] and about 77% of them don't even know it. Here [2] is some further discussion on that topic which believe it or not, ties into deficiencies in many nutrients but that is a bigger topic for another thread.
[1] - https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p0718-diabetes-repor...
[2] - https://youtu.be/5LTWJOi3bCo?t=3 [video] skipping rude intro
[1] - https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p0718-diabetes-repor...
[2] - https://youtu.be/5LTWJOi3bCo?t=3 [video] skipping rude intro
It's hard to grasp the fact 4,000 Americas are dying each and every day from COVID.
When 3,000 died in 9/11 it was an outrage, but now it's more than that each and every day and everyone has become numb to it.
When 3,000 died in 9/11 it was an outrage, but now it's more than that each and every day and everyone has become numb to it.
About 7,700 people die on any average day in America. Roughly 1,800 a day from heart disease, 1500 from cancer, and 450 from accidents.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
I imagine people would act a bit differently if we had heart disease charts and graphs plastered on the front of every major news site.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
I imagine people would act a bit differently if we had heart disease charts and graphs plastered on the front of every major news site.
Absolutely, though I think the numbers prove my point.
What single cause has resulted in 4,000 daily deaths, day in and day out for weeks on end? (and likely for many more months to come)
What single cause has resulted in 4,000 daily deaths, day in and day out for weeks on end? (and likely for many more months to come)
It hasn't caused 4k daily until recently and it isn't clear how long it will continue at that rate. The below chart shows its rank in daily deaths and shows that the death rate is very very serious.
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/
What single cause has resulted in 4k daily for weeks on end? German invasion of the USSR. There are 1417 days between 22 Jun 1941 - 09 May 1945. According to Russian government figures, USSR losses within postwar borders now stand at 26.6 million, including 8 to 9 million due to famine and disease.[0] So, 17.6m / 1417 = 12,420.6 people per day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties
https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/
What single cause has resulted in 4k daily for weeks on end? German invasion of the USSR. There are 1417 days between 22 Jun 1941 - 09 May 1945. According to Russian government figures, USSR losses within postwar borders now stand at 26.6 million, including 8 to 9 million due to famine and disease.[0] So, 17.6m / 1417 = 12,420.6 people per day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties
I don't know of any, but I am also not sure that the distinction of "single cause" is important.
The deaths above expected will tell the full story. How many days were there 4,000+ deaths above expected? Probably quite a few, but less than people think.
The deaths above expected will tell the full story. How many days were there 4,000+ deaths above expected? Probably quite a few, but less than people think.
Yeah I don’t need to google and stare at dashboards to have some situational awareness. Usually it comes up in texts or conversation “yeah we’re at 1.5 9/11s a day now”. Which sadly is likely to be true for some time and not change :(. It’s depressingly normal.
It's depressingly normal, and it doesn't feel like there's much you can do to help it. Wear a mask, avoid social gatherings, etc, but beyond that I'm at a loss as to what an individual can really do to help, hence the apathy.
People dying is normal. An event like 9/11 isn't.
People dying of "old age" is normal. Just wait until the UK strain (which seems to affect the young more[1]) makes its presence known this side of the Atlantic.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-31/faster-sp...
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-31/faster-sp...
"Excess deaths" measures the deviation from "normal." When that gets up into thousands per day, overtaking causes like cancer and heart disease, it's not "normal."
About 655k die every year from heart disease. Covid hasn't reached half that number in the same time.
Covid has been terrible but you shouldn't cherry pick stats to tell a story that isn't true.
Covid has been terrible but you shouldn't cherry pick stats to tell a story that isn't true.
Cherrypicking? I was referring to the daily death rate. If it had been 2k/day all year, which has been fairly common in recent weeks, then about 700k would have died. But that would be ridiculous, because the virus took a long time to reach the saturation level we're at today. The stat you picked is quite incomparable.
Masks sell easier to people with limited self control than salads.
People dying prematurely from a preventable pandemic is not normal and should never be considered so.
You've been oversold if you think the pandemic was completely preventable.
Many deaths are preventable but eventually you die.
500k "preventable" deaths every single year in the USA from smoking. Many others could be "prevented" by eating healthier food or getting more exercise.
Many deaths are preventable but eventually you die.
500k "preventable" deaths every single year in the USA from smoking. Many others could be "prevented" by eating healthier food or getting more exercise.
Yes, I am almost totally apathetic after being forced to sacrifice myself to protect the very same class/group of people who when they were younger, voted for and made the policies that got us into the messes we are in today (climate change, unaffordable homes/land, wars, etc.) for their own benefit. I'm glad Boomer Joe and Mary got to live their last few years together, but also a bit miffed that I and many of my generation have no future to speak of.
I think about the Vietnam war, my parents telling me the TV news used to broadcast the names of those who died. On the one hand, it was the first time the nation had the capability to do something like this, "the first televised war"[1]. At the same time I can't help but wonder if that was what it took, if that was the only way to get through people's me-ness, their smallness, their insular, far apart lives, and to inject some sense of the global massive proportion of what was afoot all around them, that their state was engaged in. The media took the time to attend, to focus the nation on what was happening, with the daily namings, running on and on and on, of lives lost. The media socialized the problem by _paying attention to it,_ in direct tribute to it, to the horrible costs.
All these years of this administration, it has been constant relentless merciless assault on our _attention._ We talk about the attention economy? All media has been fixed on the ongoing cavalcade of schlock emitting from 1600 Pennsylvania, non stop lying[2] & affrontery right out of the gate.
It makes it hard to sustain any kind of caring or thoughtfulness, when there's madcap bedlam & lying deceitful insanity working hand in hand with Senate to both pass incredible executive acts & bring in all kinds of wild completely unqualified public servants. The show keeps changing, breakneck pace of whatever three delusional soul crushing things are going to happen today.
We passed the number of US military deaths of the Vietnam war in late April. Heavens, that is so long ago; it feels like we'd just started this long war then. By July we were up to a death count topping most modern wars excluding WWII[3]. But the slow rolling incremental nature of it, the jaw dropping antics & childishness & lying all about us... it's been hard. Real hard. I don't want to tell us to chin up, carry on, because this is dark days, dark material, truly a national disaster of the grandest scale. But with context, I understand some of why this our interests have not been as rapt & focused as they might have been.
[1] https://prologue.blogs.archives.gov/2018/01/25/vietnam-the-f...
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/13/president...
[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/07/30/fac...
All these years of this administration, it has been constant relentless merciless assault on our _attention._ We talk about the attention economy? All media has been fixed on the ongoing cavalcade of schlock emitting from 1600 Pennsylvania, non stop lying[2] & affrontery right out of the gate.
It makes it hard to sustain any kind of caring or thoughtfulness, when there's madcap bedlam & lying deceitful insanity working hand in hand with Senate to both pass incredible executive acts & bring in all kinds of wild completely unqualified public servants. The show keeps changing, breakneck pace of whatever three delusional soul crushing things are going to happen today.
We passed the number of US military deaths of the Vietnam war in late April. Heavens, that is so long ago; it feels like we'd just started this long war then. By July we were up to a death count topping most modern wars excluding WWII[3]. But the slow rolling incremental nature of it, the jaw dropping antics & childishness & lying all about us... it's been hard. Real hard. I don't want to tell us to chin up, carry on, because this is dark days, dark material, truly a national disaster of the grandest scale. But with context, I understand some of why this our interests have not been as rapt & focused as they might have been.
[1] https://prologue.blogs.archives.gov/2018/01/25/vietnam-the-f...
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/13/president...
[3] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/07/30/fac...
It's not apathy, it's fatigue. It's been 10 months of terror and horror and people use whatever mental tricks they can to stay sane.
> It's not apathy, it's fatigue.
I absolutely agree.
> It's been 10 months of terror and horror
I blame this squarely on the saturation coverage it has been given by media networks. People need time to hear themselves think or they'll go nuts. Politicians haven't been terribly helpful either.
I personally find it hard to get too worked up over it anymore.
When my neighbor caught it in July, I was very concerned for him. He was the first person I knew personally to catch it and I was worried for his health. Thankfully him an his wife and kid got through it fine.
Then in September another neighbor caught it, I checked in with him daily to make sure he was coming through it okay.
In October, my 98 year old grandma caught it. I thought great, this is finally the time. She's going to die from it. And then she got over it just fine.
In December, I had an aunt and uncle catch it, both in their late 60s. Both got over it just fine.
I learned the other day the reason I hadn't heard much out of one of my best friends is that just before Christmas him and his wife caught it. They also got over it just fine.
Heard this weekend that another of my neighbors had it in their house. Also getting over it perfectly fine.
I don't say all that to discount the tragedy for those who have died from it. It's a terrible thing and I wish it hadn't happened.
But we were sold Ebola by the media, and we got an unusually deadly seasonal flu.
I absolutely agree.
> It's been 10 months of terror and horror
I blame this squarely on the saturation coverage it has been given by media networks. People need time to hear themselves think or they'll go nuts. Politicians haven't been terribly helpful either.
I personally find it hard to get too worked up over it anymore.
When my neighbor caught it in July, I was very concerned for him. He was the first person I knew personally to catch it and I was worried for his health. Thankfully him an his wife and kid got through it fine.
Then in September another neighbor caught it, I checked in with him daily to make sure he was coming through it okay.
In October, my 98 year old grandma caught it. I thought great, this is finally the time. She's going to die from it. And then she got over it just fine.
In December, I had an aunt and uncle catch it, both in their late 60s. Both got over it just fine.
I learned the other day the reason I hadn't heard much out of one of my best friends is that just before Christmas him and his wife caught it. They also got over it just fine.
Heard this weekend that another of my neighbors had it in their house. Also getting over it perfectly fine.
I don't say all that to discount the tragedy for those who have died from it. It's a terrible thing and I wish it hadn't happened.
But we were sold Ebola by the media, and we got an unusually deadly seasonal flu.
It's the knock on effects we're concerned about. The extra strain on the healthcare system:
- endangers the lives of healthcare workers (they're absolutely burnt out at this point) - makes people not go to the doctor for necessary health issues - causes other emergencies to not be serviced
- endangers the lives of healthcare workers (they're absolutely burnt out at this point) - makes people not go to the doctor for necessary health issues - causes other emergencies to not be serviced
Thats a series of anectdata, which will happen in any data set.
>But we were sold Ebola by the media, and we got an unusually deadly seasonal flu.
The current death toll is after lockdowns, social distancing, mask wearing, staggered hospitalizations etc. Without those the death toll would be in the millions, how is that just a unusually deadly seasonal flu? A bad flu season is 65k deaths. Current death toll is ~400k.
>But we were sold Ebola by the media, and we got an unusually deadly seasonal flu.
The current death toll is after lockdowns, social distancing, mask wearing, staggered hospitalizations etc. Without those the death toll would be in the millions, how is that just a unusually deadly seasonal flu? A bad flu season is 65k deaths. Current death toll is ~400k.
Ebola actually killed less in the world in total than a single flu season in the US.
With all the talk about it is almost sounds like Covid-19 is a death sentence. It is not, it is a statistical increase. GP know 8 Covid-19 mild cases and zero severe. Let's estimate the chance of severe Covid-19 over reported cases to about 1/10. That's a probability of 43%, GP's experience is typical.
One interesting bit of stats I've seen is that catching Covid-19 roughly doubles your chances of dying this year, regardless of your age. It is a lot but still in the realm of statistics.
And as you probably know, we are very bad at judging statistics instinctively, and for most of us, it is all we have. Otherwise, most people would stop smoking. If Covid-19 can (statistically) cost you one year of your life, smoking costs you 10.
With all the talk about it is almost sounds like Covid-19 is a death sentence. It is not, it is a statistical increase. GP know 8 Covid-19 mild cases and zero severe. Let's estimate the chance of severe Covid-19 over reported cases to about 1/10. That's a probability of 43%, GP's experience is typical.
One interesting bit of stats I've seen is that catching Covid-19 roughly doubles your chances of dying this year, regardless of your age. It is a lot but still in the realm of statistics.
And as you probably know, we are very bad at judging statistics instinctively, and for most of us, it is all we have. Otherwise, most people would stop smoking. If Covid-19 can (statistically) cost you one year of your life, smoking costs you 10.
> how is that just a unusually deadly seasonal flu
A smaller percentage of a very large number is still a very large number.
In March / April, people were claiming something on the order of a >10% fatality rate. We are much closer to 1%, and it drops off down to practically nothing once you get to anyone below middle-age.
A smaller percentage of a very large number is still a very large number.
In March / April, people were claiming something on the order of a >10% fatality rate. We are much closer to 1%, and it drops off down to practically nothing once you get to anyone below middle-age.
I don't know what news outlets you were following, but medical reports were indicating a case fatality rate around 0.3% by April. This works out to something like 1 in 300.
Since the fatalities skew heavily toward the elderly, in practice this means if everyone catches Covid, most people are unlikely to have a close personal friend or relative who dies as a result of the disease. Sounds not too bad, right?
A fatality rate of 0.3% also means that if everyone in the United States catches it, a million people will die. We're coming up on the equivalent of a 9/11 every day (though again, skewing heavily toward the elderly). You can't rely on personal experience to put these kinds of numbers into perspective.
Since the fatalities skew heavily toward the elderly, in practice this means if everyone catches Covid, most people are unlikely to have a close personal friend or relative who dies as a result of the disease. Sounds not too bad, right?
A fatality rate of 0.3% also means that if everyone in the United States catches it, a million people will die. We're coming up on the equivalent of a 9/11 every day (though again, skewing heavily toward the elderly). You can't rely on personal experience to put these kinds of numbers into perspective.
> This works out to something like 1 in 300.
> A fatality rate of 0.3% also means that if everyone in the United States catches it, a million people will die
Exactly.
The first sounds completely acceptable. The second sounds unacceptable. They are exactly the same number, just worded differently for effect.
If you go with "Dunbar's Number" of 150 people that a single person can meaningfully maintain a social relationship with, that means if everyone in the US caught coronavirus, statistically you would have a 50% chance of knowing someone that died of it. Those seem like perfectly acceptable odds.
I think that cuts to the core of it. It's a tragic situation, but it is unclear whether it is catastrophic. That means we should be unsurprised that society is pretty evenly split over whether the measures we've taken have been too much or too little.
> A fatality rate of 0.3% also means that if everyone in the United States catches it, a million people will die
Exactly.
The first sounds completely acceptable. The second sounds unacceptable. They are exactly the same number, just worded differently for effect.
If you go with "Dunbar's Number" of 150 people that a single person can meaningfully maintain a social relationship with, that means if everyone in the US caught coronavirus, statistically you would have a 50% chance of knowing someone that died of it. Those seem like perfectly acceptable odds.
I think that cuts to the core of it. It's a tragic situation, but it is unclear whether it is catastrophic. That means we should be unsurprised that society is pretty evenly split over whether the measures we've taken have been too much or too little.
"Covid-19" doesn't exist. That's why there is not much interest.
Can you imagine the thoughts going on in these people on their death beds. Fully aware there is a vaccine and there's nothing that can help them now, if only someone had thought of THEM, helping THEM. I know this doesn't really help anything. It's just super sad. I do feel it daily.
Unfortunately too part of the problem is so little actually helpful information is being distributed. What your average Joe hears is
1. death count - useful.
2. Vaccine - useful up to a point - they won't be able to get it for a while.
3. Wear a mask - useful.
I think beyond this we need to make sure people know that:
1. Most cases are because of contact with asymptomatic people (AND Before that one HN person replies with that doesn't exist - it absolutely does - antibody tests are also confirming this)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-spread...
2. Vitamin D is NOT your Trump conspiracy cure. It actually works and is backed up by 2 gold standard studies. We don't have more research in this area because no one is funding it. There are many other studies (not randomized/placebo) but ones looking at old people that were already previously taking vitamin D (because of their existing regimen before the pandemic) with massively better outcomes. Someone posted this link that does a nice job summarizing:
https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/
Unfortunately too part of the problem is so little actually helpful information is being distributed. What your average Joe hears is
1. death count - useful.
2. Vaccine - useful up to a point - they won't be able to get it for a while.
3. Wear a mask - useful.
I think beyond this we need to make sure people know that:
1. Most cases are because of contact with asymptomatic people (AND Before that one HN person replies with that doesn't exist - it absolutely does - antibody tests are also confirming this)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-spread...
2. Vitamin D is NOT your Trump conspiracy cure. It actually works and is backed up by 2 gold standard studies. We don't have more research in this area because no one is funding it. There are many other studies (not randomized/placebo) but ones looking at old people that were already previously taking vitamin D (because of their existing regimen before the pandemic) with massively better outcomes. Someone posted this link that does a nice job summarizing:
https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca/
Vitamin D is healthful (even outside of COVID), and many many people do not have adequate Vitamin D, and a person with COVID will most likely fare better with adequate Vitamin D than not.
That doesn't make Vitamin D a cure or and end to the pandemic.
That doesn't make Vitamin D a cure or and end to the pandemic.
Totally, but the research in that link is suggesting that death rates would drop dramatically. I don't know what they're doing in the hospitals, but the research points to a helpful direction.
At some point, everyone made up their mind, made their plans, voted for their politicians, what is the point of continuing to spin the wheels on this one?