Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began(cidrap.umn.edu)
cidrap.umn.edu
Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/type-2-diabetes-rates-us-youth-rose-62-after-covid-pandemic-began-study-suggests
152 comments
You should edit your comment to specify that you are referring to Type 2 diabetes. As stated in the article, infection by coronavirus and many other viruses can trigger Type 1 diabetes through autoimmune reactions. (Which I think most people would interpret as "directly causes" for all practical purposes.)
Thank you for your opinion.
As stated in the article:
FWiW I addressed the title and the article's primary focus, Type-2 diabetes, and linked to detailed comparative factor breakdowns for Type-2 diabetes.
As stated in the article:
... and may lead to diabetes.
Additionally, diabetes risk factors may have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic including ...
FWiW I addressed the title and the article's primary focus, Type-2 diabetes, and linked to detailed comparative factor breakdowns for Type-2 diabetes.
Nothing in this paper is anywhere close to establishing causality, it's an interesting observation that merits further study.
We should also note that the authors offer alternative possibilities in the discussion such as increased/early diagnosis.
Interestingly, the 10-19 T1D IRR declines below prepandemic levels in Q4 2021 which would be supportive of this hypothesis for this age group however more follow-up is needed to see how the trend evolves.
We should also note that the authors offer alternative possibilities in the discussion such as increased/early diagnosis.
Interestingly, the 10-19 T1D IRR declines below prepandemic levels in Q4 2021 which would be supportive of this hypothesis for this age group however more follow-up is needed to see how the trend evolves.
My point is that we do know viruses "directly cause" Type 1 diabetes -- which still has lots of interesting research questions -- but they are quite different from questions about the effect of lockdowns on Type 2 diabetes. Lockdowns being the obvious middle step we are all wondering about that connects the virus to the disease "indirectly".
> My point is that we do know viruses "directly cause" Type 1 diabetes
If you mean virus are capable of directly causing T1D in theory and animal models, sure. As to whether this actually happens to humans in real life is as clear as mud.
There is also similarly weak evidence that says viruses have either no or a protective role in the pathogenesis of T1D.
If you mean virus are capable of directly causing T1D in theory and animal models, sure. As to whether this actually happens to humans in real life is as clear as mud.
There is also similarly weak evidence that says viruses have either no or a protective role in the pathogenesis of T1D.
> coronavirus and many other viruses can trigger
Does COVID trigger this at a higher rate than other viruses? Or did the overall rate of viral infection increase due to covid?
I suspect the answers are “we don’t know” and “not substantially”.
Does COVID trigger this at a higher rate than other viruses? Or did the overall rate of viral infection increase due to covid?
I suspect the answers are “we don’t know” and “not substantially”.
Sure. But the point is that as far as casual factors go, the research questions for T1 vs T2 diabetes are going to be fairly different. I personally think it is important to be clear what we are talking about, and that the article itself is written poorly in this regard.
For type 2 I can see the risk factors of limited physical activity, but type 1? Type 1 is generally something attacking the pancreas. I've been a long time T1 diabetic, and was diagnosed after I had a long term persistent lung infection.
https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/diabetes/overvi...
>Type 1 diabetes occurs when your immune system, the body’s system for fighting infection, attacks and destroys the insulin-producing beta cells of the pancreas. Scientists think type 1 diabetes is caused by genes and environmental factors, such as viruses, that might trigger the disease.
While covid may not have caused this T1 discrepency, it does need investigated.
https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/diabetes/overvi...
>Type 1 diabetes occurs when your immune system, the body’s system for fighting infection, attacks and destroys the insulin-producing beta cells of the pancreas. Scientists think type 1 diabetes is caused by genes and environmental factors, such as viruses, that might trigger the disease.
While covid may not have caused this T1 discrepency, it does need investigated.
Conversely the rate of increase in Type 1 was much smaller then Type 2.
> Relative to 2016 to 2019, in 2020 to 2021, the incidence of new-onset type 1 diabetes was 17% higher (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.17). The incidence was higher among patients aged 10 to 19 years (IRR,1.17), boys (IRR, 1.18), and Hispanic patients (1.21).
> Rates of type 2 diabetes were 62% higher (IRR, 1.62) in 2020 to 2021 than in 2016 to 2019. The incidence of type 2 diabetes rose from 14.8 to 24.7 per 100,000 person-years over that time.
> Relative to 2016 to 2019, in 2020 to 2021, the incidence of new-onset type 1 diabetes was 17% higher (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.17). The incidence was higher among patients aged 10 to 19 years (IRR,1.17), boys (IRR, 1.18), and Hispanic patients (1.21).
> Rates of type 2 diabetes were 62% higher (IRR, 1.62) in 2020 to 2021 than in 2016 to 2019. The incidence of type 2 diabetes rose from 14.8 to 24.7 per 100,000 person-years over that time.
I assume the parent comment was only referring to Type 2 diabetes and made a sibling comment to that affect. However, while we're on the topic, I suppose one can ask why some people have the autoimmune reaction that triggers T1D. Presumably there are genetic, lifestyle, or environmental factors that lead to it, just like celiac or Hashimoto's, etc.
I have a friend (fit, healthy male of 28) who suddenly lost a whole lot of weight and then was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes, not too long after having COVID - may have been a coincidence, but it is suspicious...
To be sort of nitpicky: the underlying study [0] does not argue a direct causal connection. This is one of many current observational studies reporting on population level trends and measuring associated incidence ratios/risk ratios/hazard ratios.
That said, dismissing the COVID correlation entirely out of hand also feels wrong here; in part because there are meta analysis in the literature [1] that show risk ratios very comparable to increases here.
To compare from the quote in the article:
> Rates of type 2 diabetes were 62% higher (IRR, 1.62) in 2020 to 2021 than in 2016 to 2019. The incidence of type 2 diabetes rose from 14.8 to 24.7 per 100,000 person-years over that time.
To this in Ssentongo et al:
> Of the 8 studies that characterized the risk of incident diabetes among survivors of COVID-19, the pooled point estimates was 1.66 (95% CI 1.38; 2.00, Fig. 2), implying a 66% higher risk of diabetes.
covid-19 is a complex disease that is correlated to problems with almost every major system in the body (See any of the cites implied by my handle), to suggest it's not a factor at all is very likely incorrect.
[0] Mefford et al, "Incidence of Diabetes Among Youth Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic" https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle... [1] Ssentongo et al, "Association of COVID-19 with diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-24185-7
That said, dismissing the COVID correlation entirely out of hand also feels wrong here; in part because there are meta analysis in the literature [1] that show risk ratios very comparable to increases here.
To compare from the quote in the article:
> Rates of type 2 diabetes were 62% higher (IRR, 1.62) in 2020 to 2021 than in 2016 to 2019. The incidence of type 2 diabetes rose from 14.8 to 24.7 per 100,000 person-years over that time.
To this in Ssentongo et al:
> Of the 8 studies that characterized the risk of incident diabetes among survivors of COVID-19, the pooled point estimates was 1.66 (95% CI 1.38; 2.00, Fig. 2), implying a 66% higher risk of diabetes.
covid-19 is a complex disease that is correlated to problems with almost every major system in the body (See any of the cites implied by my handle), to suggest it's not a factor at all is very likely incorrect.
[0] Mefford et al, "Incidence of Diabetes Among Youth Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic" https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle... [1] Ssentongo et al, "Association of COVID-19 with diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-24185-7
> To be sort of nitpicky: the underlying study [0] does not argue ...
To be sort of nitpicky at the time I made that comment there were only four (IIRC) other comments here all of which were making direct causal connections.
It was less the article I was addressing and more those commenters that felt the need to jump straight into "COVID ate my homework" stories.
I can see that both yourself and I appear to agree that covid-19 is a complex disease with a great many correlations and it certainly factors into to at least some kind of indirect connection.
Of interest, perhaps, is this quote from the link I provided above:
I hope you and I both share a similar degree of wariness towards the conclusions of meta-analysis reviews.
To be sort of nitpicky at the time I made that comment there were only four (IIRC) other comments here all of which were making direct causal connections.
It was less the article I was addressing and more those commenters that felt the need to jump straight into "COVID ate my homework" stories.
I can see that both yourself and I appear to agree that covid-19 is a complex disease with a great many correlations and it certainly factors into to at least some kind of indirect connection.
Of interest, perhaps, is this quote from the link I provided above:
After adjusting for differences in the age structure of the population, the proportion of people living with type 2 diabetes almost doubled between 2000 and 2013, and has remained relatively stable in the last decade.
I hope you and I both share a similar degree of wariness towards the conclusions of meta-analysis reviews.
COVID directly gave me pre-diabetic symptoms that gradually improved over about 12-18 months. It was really a binary healthy, not healthy switch after the most intense day of sickness.
I’m curious. How do you know it was COVID? I too was diagnosed pre-diabetic post-COVID. No longer the case now. However, I’m not sure how I could ever make the direct attribution to COVID?
Sociodemographic factors, average body mass index, fasting and random glucose levels, and hemoglobin A1c concentrations didn't change from 2016 to 2021.
That's especially perplexing.
That's especially perplexing.
Were these communities not affected by the lockdowns?
Surely, remote learning and cancellation of intramural sports, etc, led to worse average fittness.
Surely, remote learning and cancellation of intramural sports, etc, led to worse average fittness.
People also ate out less and had more time to cook meals at home instead of eating highly processed foods bought from supermarkets.
I made countless "boredom orders" that were nothing but junk. I can't be the only one.
[deleted]
“Cooking” at home does not necessarily mean healthier than restaurants.
Home cooking for most people uses tons of sauces/cheeses/creams/butter/chocolate/breads/etc loaded with sugar and sat fats.
Home cooking for most people uses tons of sauces/cheeses/creams/butter/chocolate/breads/etc loaded with sugar and sat fats.
> Home cooking for most people uses tons of sauces/cheeses/creams/butter/chocolate/breads/etc loaded with sugar and sat fats.
A restaurant chef once told me, 'not as much as we do'. I was in a city that required chain restaurants to put sodium quantities (and maybe other data) on the menues. The numbers were eye-watering.
A restaurant chef once told me, 'not as much as we do'. I was in a city that required chain restaurants to put sodium quantities (and maybe other data) on the menues. The numbers were eye-watering.
Former restaurant chef. Indeed, that’s my experience. Especially butter. I’ve never seen so much butter go into a dish. Another that flies under the radar: ingredient quality. Example that comes to mind: the cooking oil for sauce/fry/etc is garbage.
The oil in homes or the oil in restaurants is that bad?
Fat is flavor, after all.
I don’t hate it! Key at home is to not overuse the stuff that’s bad for you and focus on high-quality stuff (as best you can tell)
I don't think anyone defends sugar as good for you, but there is a lot of research showing that dietary saturated fats can actually be good for you. Especially if the concern is diabetes, ketogenic diets can be extremely beneficial as the body is burning primarily fat rather than glucose and glycogen.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5291812/
> A high-fat, high-saturated fat diet decreases insulin sensitivity without changing intra-abdominal fat in weight-stable overweight and obese adults
https://diabetesjournals.org/diabetes/article/63/7/2356/3433...
> Despite comparable weight gain after 49 days, this double-blind trial showed that overeating energy from PUFAs prevented deposition of liver fat and visceral and total fat compared with SFAs. Excess energy from SFAs caused an increase of liver fat compared with PUFAs. Further, the inhibitory effect of PUFAs on ectopic fat was accompanied by an augmented increase in lean tissue and less total body fat deposition compared with SFAs. Thus, the type of fat in the diet seems to be a novel and important determinant of liver fat accumulation, fat distribution, and body composition during moderate weight gain. We also observed fatty acid–dependent differences in adipose tissue gene expression. The significant decrease in pancreatic fat in both groups during weight gain was an unexpected finding that needs confirmation due to the low amounts of pancreatic fat in this lean population.
> A high-fat, high-saturated fat diet decreases insulin sensitivity without changing intra-abdominal fat in weight-stable overweight and obese adults
https://diabetesjournals.org/diabetes/article/63/7/2356/3433...
> Despite comparable weight gain after 49 days, this double-blind trial showed that overeating energy from PUFAs prevented deposition of liver fat and visceral and total fat compared with SFAs. Excess energy from SFAs caused an increase of liver fat compared with PUFAs. Further, the inhibitory effect of PUFAs on ectopic fat was accompanied by an augmented increase in lean tissue and less total body fat deposition compared with SFAs. Thus, the type of fat in the diet seems to be a novel and important determinant of liver fat accumulation, fat distribution, and body composition during moderate weight gain. We also observed fatty acid–dependent differences in adipose tissue gene expression. The significant decrease in pancreatic fat in both groups during weight gain was an unexpected finding that needs confirmation due to the low amounts of pancreatic fat in this lean population.
The crank diet influencers who were previously into saturated fats being good sometimes now think sugar is good because of the influence of a dead crank diet influencer named Ray Peat.
I don't know who Ray Peatis but there are cranks on both sides of any issue. To point to one example that you may have seen and use that to discredit all others isn't doing anyone any good.
I ate keto for a couple years and still generally fall closer to that bucket, though I'm not dealing with any health issues and started eating some breads and carbs again. All the researchers, dieticians, and excercise/fitness coaches I learned from are all still agreed that sugar is bad for you as far as I'm aware. I haven't heard any of them pivot towards saying there are benefits from any meaningful intake of sugars.
I ate keto for a couple years and still generally fall closer to that bucket, though I'm not dealing with any health issues and started eating some breads and carbs again. All the researchers, dieticians, and excercise/fitness coaches I learned from are all still agreed that sugar is bad for you as far as I'm aware. I haven't heard any of them pivot towards saying there are benefits from any meaningful intake of sugars.
Obviously most people do not need that but sugar is good for quick energy.
In general, it is: I know the ingredients, I know what’s in there, I know there is no old oils is used, I know no MSG is used, or soy or other non healthy ingredients, I know the source of the meat, I know my salad is fresh and wasn’t one of those refrigerated bagged ones, Among others. And that’s compared to restaurants we are not even discussing fast food industry.. not to mention how over-priced plus the 25%tip.
Based on what I see in most people’s shopping carts, what you describe is far from the norm.
Especially when “cooking” means heating up frozen pizza.
On the other hand you had more free time, because there was no commute. My fitness went UP due to homeoofice and lockdowns. I also started to eat healthier, simply because I had more and easier control over what I eat.
How so? Ate more healthily at home, walked more, got outside more generally. Physical health likely improved with lockdowns.
That would really depend on where somebody was located.
All across Canada, for example, the government-imposed and "public health"-imposed restrictions were remarkably harmful to the health of the general public.
It varied somewhat by region, but pretty much all fitness facilities, including gyms, were shut down for extended (many months, if not longer) periods of time. Some never reopened. Losing access to facilities like those was a big problem in a country where harsh winters can seriously limit outdoor activities for several months each year.
There were also curfews and other restrictions that prevented or severely limited people from doing exercise and other physical activity outside.
The lockdowns and restrictions also destroyed or seriously harmed many businesses, which resulted in significant stress for the employees, owners, suppliers, and others affected. They suffered financial harm, job losses, business losses, and so on.
The forced masking and forced shots caused significant stress for those who were lucky enough to not lose their jobs or businesses.
Hospitals, medical clinics, and doctors cancelled or significantly delayed huge numbers of procedures and screenings.
Those are just a few examples. It went well beyond those. I didn't touch on the harm from the education-related restrictions, for instance.
Between 2020 and 2023 in Canada, blatantly idiotic "public health" policies caused far more people far more physical and mental harm than any virus did.
All across Canada, for example, the government-imposed and "public health"-imposed restrictions were remarkably harmful to the health of the general public.
It varied somewhat by region, but pretty much all fitness facilities, including gyms, were shut down for extended (many months, if not longer) periods of time. Some never reopened. Losing access to facilities like those was a big problem in a country where harsh winters can seriously limit outdoor activities for several months each year.
There were also curfews and other restrictions that prevented or severely limited people from doing exercise and other physical activity outside.
The lockdowns and restrictions also destroyed or seriously harmed many businesses, which resulted in significant stress for the employees, owners, suppliers, and others affected. They suffered financial harm, job losses, business losses, and so on.
The forced masking and forced shots caused significant stress for those who were lucky enough to not lose their jobs or businesses.
Hospitals, medical clinics, and doctors cancelled or significantly delayed huge numbers of procedures and screenings.
Those are just a few examples. It went well beyond those. I didn't touch on the harm from the education-related restrictions, for instance.
Between 2020 and 2023 in Canada, blatantly idiotic "public health" policies caused far more people far more physical and mental harm than any virus did.
Covid was definitely a healthier time for me - I didn't consume a drop of alcohol for almost a year and my mother (who I was staying with) leaned into cooking so I ended up not eating a single repeated meal for almost 6 months.
Did lots of walks and outdoor workouts, got a tonne of sunlight and vitamin D
On the other hand, just within my own friend group my experiences were quite polar and many of my friends tripled their alcohol intake or ate even more unhealthy take-out food or would start baking cakes and cookies everyday...
Did lots of walks and outdoor workouts, got a tonne of sunlight and vitamin D
On the other hand, just within my own friend group my experiences were quite polar and many of my friends tripled their alcohol intake or ate even more unhealthy take-out food or would start baking cakes and cookies everyday...
Covid and a layoff probably saved my life - quit a serious alcohol habit but ended up very sedentary until I got laid off and basically ended up rehabbing myself by helping my parents out with some construction work. Then had a slow year but now I'm back to the gym and finding out that I'm not as decrepit as I thought and headed towards being in the best shape of my life.
Been a weird couple years for sure.
Been a weird couple years for sure.
Research from all over the world indicates that this isn't the case. At least, not generally. It may be the case for you.
What research?
Lifestyle related research, especially diet, is often low quality but as you asked:
Physical Activity:
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/5/2235
https://bmjopensem.bmj.com/content/bmjosem/7/1/e000960.full....
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000368702...
Diet:
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/15/3494
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41430-021-00897-3
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016762962...
Physical Activity:
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/5/2235
https://bmjopensem.bmj.com/content/bmjosem/7/1/e000960.full....
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000368702...
Diet:
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/15/3494
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41430-021-00897-3
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016762962...
Thanks, that's a lot of reading to get through but it's interesting that we see such changes in activity and diet versus the OP article's finding that major health statistics haven't noticeably moved.
Did they say that? Are you referring to this section or did I miss something, I mostly skimmed the JAMA article:
> In our study, baseline clinical characteristics of patients with incident type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes were not different during nonpandemic and pandemic years. This is consistent with other studies showing similarity in age, HbA1c, and body mass index among patients with incident diabetes before and during the pandemic.
If this is the section you mean that's not discordant, what they're saying is that people with diabetes have similar characteristics during non pandemic and pandemic years. It doesn't comment on whether more people in general have increased BMI therefore placing them at risk for T2DM.
> In our study, baseline clinical characteristics of patients with incident type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes were not different during nonpandemic and pandemic years. This is consistent with other studies showing similarity in age, HbA1c, and body mass index among patients with incident diabetes before and during the pandemic.
If this is the section you mean that's not discordant, what they're saying is that people with diabetes have similar characteristics during non pandemic and pandemic years. It doesn't comment on whether more people in general have increased BMI therefore placing them at risk for T2DM.
I’ve noticed that some of my friends are in better shape, but most are fatter and are in worse shape.
I think lockdowns + wfh pushed most people to one extreme or the other.
I think lockdowns + wfh pushed most people to one extreme or the other.
Same here.
Isn't diabetes defined as a certain A1C?
How could both possibly be true?
How could both possibly be true?
The T2 patients weren’t fatter or more diabetic. There were just 62% more of them.
Which should push average A1C levels up...
> Among youth with type 2 diabetes ... Sociodemographics and, additionally, mean body mass index, fasting and random glucose, and HbA1c levels were not different from 2016 to 2021.
They're talking about these values in the diabetic population, not youth in general. They are simply saying there are more diabetics, but they have similar characteristics as pre-pandemic diabetics. This is expected.
They're talking about these values in the diabetic population, not youth in general. They are simply saying there are more diabetics, but they have similar characteristics as pre-pandemic diabetics. This is expected.
The study shows incidences on the scale of 15-25 cases per 100,000. The relative incidence ratio may have increased significantly but the absolute increase was small enough that the handful of people with higher A1C wouldn't have budged the average.
Ah, thanks. I was confused by that part too.
I mean.. we locked children in their homes for 12-24 months. Quite literally, my kids could not: attend school, take swim lessons, do gymnastics, play soccer for 24 months without severe restrictions. Further, other parents were concerned to the point the sniffles or a covid exposure would limit our ability to get together for 3-14 days. Finally, you had parents also stuck home trying to raise kids in this environment and often would end up eating out / getting pre-packaged meals because there simply wasn't time.
Luckily, we had a yard, so I could at least get my kids outside and we'd play. Eventually, I ended up just moving because 18-20 months into this thing Illinois was still having a mask mandate for 2yr olds plus. I think it was finally lifted from schools after 24 months - https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-illinois-mask-...
I should add, many places still required it, it just wasn't mandated. They still were shutting down the classrooms every for a couple weeks at a time if 1 covid case was identified. This ended up meaning 25%+ of the time my kids were home.
My general point, if you feed kids a bad diet & remove their ability to exercise yeah -- type 2 diabetes.
Luckily, we had a yard, so I could at least get my kids outside and we'd play. Eventually, I ended up just moving because 18-20 months into this thing Illinois was still having a mask mandate for 2yr olds plus. I think it was finally lifted from schools after 24 months - https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-illinois-mask-...
I should add, many places still required it, it just wasn't mandated. They still were shutting down the classrooms every for a couple weeks at a time if 1 covid case was identified. This ended up meaning 25%+ of the time my kids were home.
My general point, if you feed kids a bad diet & remove their ability to exercise yeah -- type 2 diabetes.
My kids were not locked in our home. They were outside literally every day. And I live in a city apartment and we had lockdowns. They socialization did suffer and they missed some sports practice, but they did had enough of healthy physical movement.
Sure, glad you did that. Like I said, we were outside in the yard and very active.
I can easily imagine plenty of peers & neighbors not letting their kids out to play. That’s how it was where I lived. I’m sure play dates were canceled. I’m sure parents staying at home didn’t get their kids as much exercise as gym class. I’m also confident many parents just gave their kids tablets to entertain them.
You mention yourself missed sports practice. At a massive scale many children in the margins do get more overweight and that correlates with increased type 2 diabetes.
I can easily imagine plenty of peers & neighbors not letting their kids out to play. That’s how it was where I lived. I’m sure play dates were canceled. I’m sure parents staying at home didn’t get their kids as much exercise as gym class. I’m also confident many parents just gave their kids tablets to entertain them.
You mention yourself missed sports practice. At a massive scale many children in the margins do get more overweight and that correlates with increased type 2 diabetes.
I do not know anyone who would not have kids going outside. Literally anyone. Yes some socialization was cancelled. Some people kept socializing with one or two friend families. Literally no one I know about kept kids inside 24/7 the way you suggested.
In general, parents who do put less effort into children were also the ones took lockdowns least seriously - meaning their kids were about as usual minus school.
In general, parents who do put less effort into children were also the ones took lockdowns least seriously - meaning their kids were about as usual minus school.
This isn't hard to imagine.
Imagine you're in NYC, school is closed, gyms are closed, swimming is closed, beaches are closed. You have to work and your kids are home. How do you get them activity? You send your 4 year old down the hall to run around? what exactly?
That's an extreme example, but even in the suburbs I saw a dramatic reduction in available activities & children participating in activities.
Even a 25% reduction in activity for marginal kids (i.e. on the kid of getting type 2 diabetes) would probably push a significant portion over the edge and become diabetics.
Imagine you're in NYC, school is closed, gyms are closed, swimming is closed, beaches are closed. You have to work and your kids are home. How do you get them activity? You send your 4 year old down the hall to run around? what exactly?
That's an extreme example, but even in the suburbs I saw a dramatic reduction in available activities & children participating in activities.
Even a 25% reduction in activity for marginal kids (i.e. on the kid of getting type 2 diabetes) would probably push a significant portion over the edge and become diabetics.
We just went to a park or walk. That sort of stuff. Not everything needs to be an organized activity. Maybe the suburbs are in even worst position then city, since you are completely limited to own backyard with nowhere to go if it is nor paid and organized.
I don't think you appreciate just how oppressive and outright stupid the restrictions were in some areas.
> We just went to a park or walk.
At one point, such venues were closed across an entire Canadian province with a population of about 14,000,000 people at the time. To give a sense of scale, that population would make Ontario the 5th-most-populous US state, if it were one.
"Ontario closes all playgrounds, sports facilities and off-leash dog parks"
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-closes-all-playgrounds-sp...
A trip to the park or engaging in outdoor activity could have easily resulted in steep fines in much of Canada.
Here are some examples of such incidents:
"Coronavirus: Oakville, Ont., family hit with $880 ticket after going rollerblading"
https://globalnews.ca/news/6810568/coronavirus-oakville-onta...
"Britannia man fined $880 while walking dog through Britannia Park"
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/britannia-man-fine...
"First Winnipeg public health ticket handed out to scofflaw skateboarder"
https://globalnews.ca/news/6895000/first-winnipeg-public-hea...
"Chin-ups in the park net Toronto man $880 fine as provinces enforce stricter measures"
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/chin-ups-in-the-pa...
"Coronavirus: Man fined $750 for playing basketball in Kitchener park"
https://globalnews.ca/news/6783242/kitchener-basketball-man-...
"Dartmouth man who went to Shubie Park fined for violating state of emergency regulations"
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/dartmouth-man-who-went-to-shubie...
> We just went to a park or walk.
At one point, such venues were closed across an entire Canadian province with a population of about 14,000,000 people at the time. To give a sense of scale, that population would make Ontario the 5th-most-populous US state, if it were one.
"Ontario closes all playgrounds, sports facilities and off-leash dog parks"
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-closes-all-playgrounds-sp...
A trip to the park or engaging in outdoor activity could have easily resulted in steep fines in much of Canada.
Here are some examples of such incidents:
"Coronavirus: Oakville, Ont., family hit with $880 ticket after going rollerblading"
https://globalnews.ca/news/6810568/coronavirus-oakville-onta...
"Britannia man fined $880 while walking dog through Britannia Park"
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/britannia-man-fine...
"First Winnipeg public health ticket handed out to scofflaw skateboarder"
https://globalnews.ca/news/6895000/first-winnipeg-public-hea...
"Chin-ups in the park net Toronto man $880 fine as provinces enforce stricter measures"
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/chin-ups-in-the-pa...
"Coronavirus: Man fined $750 for playing basketball in Kitchener park"
https://globalnews.ca/news/6783242/kitchener-basketball-man-...
"Dartmouth man who went to Shubie Park fined for violating state of emergency regulations"
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/dartmouth-man-who-went-to-shubie...
Good comment. We must never forget the egregious violations of civil rights incurred for seemingly no good reason at all. I remember being kicked off the beach in Chicago, when I was just hanging out _alone_. What does that have to do with public health?
> locked children in their homes for 12-24 months
So you LITERALLY sit at home ALL THE TIME for a year? Even China didn't had 12 Month lockdowns!
> mask mandate lifted from schools after 24 months so locked at home or just mask mandates?
So you LITERALLY sit at home ALL THE TIME for a year? Even China didn't had 12 Month lockdowns!
> mask mandate lifted from schools after 24 months so locked at home or just mask mandates?
> So you LITERALLY
I was using the collective “we”.
My family had a yard and had kids playing outside. We eventually just moved to somewhere not doing any of the restrictions.
BUT where I was living did restrict severely for a prolonged period.
I was using the collective “we”.
My family had a yard and had kids playing outside. We eventually just moved to somewhere not doing any of the restrictions.
BUT where I was living did restrict severely for a prolonged period.
It saddens me to hear so many young people are having such serious health disadvantages. I wish I could do something for them other than post. I think the actual culprit is stress.
I was a stress eater up until late July when I started with strict OMAD/keto. I lost 8kg and reduced waist circumference by 11cm.
I was a stress eater up until late July when I started with strict OMAD/keto. I lost 8kg and reduced waist circumference by 11cm.
> I wish I could do something for them other than post.
You can start by making pariahs out of parents of obese children. They are child abusers, full stop. Do not enable them with your friendship or business, just as you would for anyone you know is beating their kids.
You can start by making pariahs out of parents of obese children. They are child abusers, full stop. Do not enable them with your friendship or business, just as you would for anyone you know is beating their kids.
>I was a stress eater up until late July when I started with strict OMAD/keto. I lost 8kg and reduced waist circumference by 11cm.
Wow! Congratulations. That's an incredible feat. As someone re-starting this journey, I know it's not easy. Good luck to you :)
Wow! Congratulations. That's an incredible feat. As someone re-starting this journey, I know it's not easy. Good luck to you :)
>Rates of type 2 diabetes were 62% higher (IRR, 1.62) in 2020 to 2021 than in 2016 to 2019. The incidence of type 2 diabetes rose from 14.8 to 24.7 per 100,000 person-years over that time.
That is a huge jump. Is it possible there was more widespread testing of at risk populations? If they are simultaneously reporting no notable changes in average BMI, my knee jerk thought is populations cannot change that quickly.
That is a huge jump. Is it possible there was more widespread testing of at risk populations? If they are simultaneously reporting no notable changes in average BMI, my knee jerk thought is populations cannot change that quickly.
> my knee jerk thought is populations cannot change that quickly.
Covid went through the population quickly and has been known to heavily increase the chances of diabetes, so why would that be a surprise?
Covid went through the population quickly and has been known to heavily increase the chances of diabetes, so why would that be a surprise?
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Really the changes in type 1 of 18% should be far more alarming...
> Type 1 diabetes rates climbed from 18.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2016 to 2019 to 22.4 per 100,000 person-years from 2020 to 2021.
T1D is an immune system reaction, commonly caused by viral infection or other autoimmune disorder. If the correlation holds in T1D, then there is highly likely some correlation with the even larger increase in T2D, though lack of exercise will be a comorbidity here.
> Type 1 diabetes rates climbed from 18.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2016 to 2019 to 22.4 per 100,000 person-years from 2020 to 2021.
T1D is an immune system reaction, commonly caused by viral infection or other autoimmune disorder. If the correlation holds in T1D, then there is highly likely some correlation with the even larger increase in T2D, though lack of exercise will be a comorbidity here.
You can be a Type 2 diabetic for a fairly long time before you get a clinical diagnosis though. I wonder if the increased focused on health and seeing the doctor simply hit the throttle on a bunch of people getting the diagnosis sooner rather then later?
Yeah basically surveillance bias, it's mentioned as a possibility in the discussion.
T2D feels like it could be a combination of both, there was certainly an increase in metabolic risk factors as well.
The authors also mention acute stress response may have contributed to increased detection of previously undiagnosed diabetes.
The continuing trend will be interesting to see. For example T1D in the 0-9 group reaches a 5 year low in Q4 2021. I think it's too early to conclude much, we'll better understand the ramifications of the pandemic and virus in another 2-5 years.
> Within KPSC, while there were no initiatives for increased diabetes screening among at-risk patients, the shift to increased virtual care allowed for better electronic monitoring of patients’ health status, which may account for some additional patients with diabetes detected during the pandemic years.
> Acute stress of SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to increase blood glucose levels, and individuals with previously undiagnosed diabetes may receive a diagnosis when presenting to hospitals for infection-related care.
T2D feels like it could be a combination of both, there was certainly an increase in metabolic risk factors as well.
The authors also mention acute stress response may have contributed to increased detection of previously undiagnosed diabetes.
The continuing trend will be interesting to see. For example T1D in the 0-9 group reaches a 5 year low in Q4 2021. I think it's too early to conclude much, we'll better understand the ramifications of the pandemic and virus in another 2-5 years.
> Within KPSC, while there were no initiatives for increased diabetes screening among at-risk patients, the shift to increased virtual care allowed for better electronic monitoring of patients’ health status, which may account for some additional patients with diabetes detected during the pandemic years.
> Acute stress of SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to increase blood glucose levels, and individuals with previously undiagnosed diabetes may receive a diagnosis when presenting to hospitals for infection-related care.
> Is it possible there was more widespread testing
Yes, they mention two variations of this possibility in the discussion.
> If they are simultaneously reporting no notable changes in average BMI,
Why would you expect average BMI of diabetics to change?
Yes, they mention two variations of this possibility in the discussion.
> If they are simultaneously reporting no notable changes in average BMI,
Why would you expect average BMI of diabetics to change?
The rise of society and culture-driven anxiety (this is not related to covid the disease) resulting in seeking food comfort and accompanying type 2 diabetes might also explain this
I know a few people that have had their anxiety shoot up recently. We are more isolated than ever
I know a few people that have had their anxiety shoot up recently. We are more isolated than ever
Let’s fix this. There’s funding already allocated to improve ventilation in schools. Since the coronavirus is endemic we’re going to be dealing with these increased risks for decades. Why can’t we get this done? Let’s actually save the children for once.
I didn’t have COVID even once. Or maybe I did and didn’t notice it. Most of the people I know are in the same boat. My 69 year old morbidly obese father tested positive for COVID but only had sniffles. My 95 year old grandmother had COVID and didn’t really have symptoms.
Since 2022 I don’t use any kind of protection ever and don’t follow up on vaccination. I am somewhat convinced COVID was a tempest in a teapot and the world would have been better off if we never heard about it. Even as it deployed itself into communities.
So, no. No more special measures, please. We’re back to normal and thank goodness for that.
P.S. Better ventilation in schools is great, of course. Just, let’s not make it about COVID. Let’s leave COVID confined to the dumpster heap of history and maybe learn some lessons from the whole episode. Like, fear is never to be trusted.
Since 2022 I don’t use any kind of protection ever and don’t follow up on vaccination. I am somewhat convinced COVID was a tempest in a teapot and the world would have been better off if we never heard about it. Even as it deployed itself into communities.
So, no. No more special measures, please. We’re back to normal and thank goodness for that.
P.S. Better ventilation in schools is great, of course. Just, let’s not make it about COVID. Let’s leave COVID confined to the dumpster heap of history and maybe learn some lessons from the whole episode. Like, fear is never to be trusted.
It's such a strange experience since the pandemic encountering folks like you and some sibling commenters, who, because a few people in their immediate social group, "seem fine", dismiss the outcomes of millions who died, or struggle with Long COVID, or all the accumulating science documenting the post-acute conditions this virus causes. Other viruses cause post-acute complications too, so it's not even new, but for this virus people really need to put it in the box of 'what me worry?' for some reason. Three years ago I would've expected different from the educated and generally cynical/skeptical HN crowd, but no longer I guess.
The virus is endemic and, though we weren't supposed to say this before, will continue to circulate and act much like the common cold. Ventilation in schools would be extraordinarily expensive, would only impact that 8 hour period of each kid's day, and with the state of average school buildings in the US we would never seal them up well enough for a positive pressure system to reliably keep them ventilated.
Unfortunately we can't just throw money at every problem to fix it. There could be more effective avenues if we want to spend that minry though, revisiting the food our kids eat might be more effective at keeping our kids healthy for example.
Unfortunately we can't just throw money at every problem to fix it. There could be more effective avenues if we want to spend that minry though, revisiting the food our kids eat might be more effective at keeping our kids healthy for example.
> would only impact that 8 hour period of each kid's day
That 8 hour period of each kid's day where they're surrounded by dozens of other potential disease vectors. The period before they go home and infect their parents, and potentially kill their grandparents. It's expensive but let's be frank, we're okay with thousands of people dying annually because we don't want to spend the money to do anything about it.
That 8 hour period of each kid's day where they're surrounded by dozens of other potential disease vectors. The period before they go home and infect their parents, and potentially kill their grandparents. It's expensive but let's be frank, we're okay with thousands of people dying annually because we don't want to spend the money to do anything about it.
Especially when they found that only five minutes of exposure to someone else's exhalation was sufficient to transmit covid-19 with that South Korean restaurant case.
> The 8 hours of each kid's day where they're surrounded by dozens of other potential disease vectors.
Would ventilation really stop this though? Kids will still ride on school busses, play during recess, share classroom supplies, eat in the same cafeteria, etc. Ventilation isn't magic, I don't think there are any ventilation systems that could swap out the air so quickly that kids wouldn't be exposing each other. I also haven't seen any studies in which they retrofitted an average school building and tested transmissability, though I'd be very interested if anyone has a source to such a study.
> The period before they go home and infdct their parents, and potentially kill their grandparents.
This isn't how infection works. If a kid is exposed at school they won't go home and immediately infect others. I also feel for any child made to think that if they step out of line at all they would kill their grandparents.
> It's expensive but let's be frank, we're okay with thousands of people dying annually because we don't want to spend the money to do anything about it.
This gets to the question of what gives the most impact for our buck. If saving lives if the question we would first need to decide if all lives are equal and whether there are other causes of death that can be more easily or cheaply mitigated.
If the goal is to save on the scale of thousands of lives, investing in helping our people eat better would almost certainly make a bigger impact, I'm sure there are many other examples that would be more efficient than retrofitting all school buildings with ventilation systems effective enough to show a change in Covid deaths.
Would ventilation really stop this though? Kids will still ride on school busses, play during recess, share classroom supplies, eat in the same cafeteria, etc. Ventilation isn't magic, I don't think there are any ventilation systems that could swap out the air so quickly that kids wouldn't be exposing each other. I also haven't seen any studies in which they retrofitted an average school building and tested transmissability, though I'd be very interested if anyone has a source to such a study.
> The period before they go home and infdct their parents, and potentially kill their grandparents.
This isn't how infection works. If a kid is exposed at school they won't go home and immediately infect others. I also feel for any child made to think that if they step out of line at all they would kill their grandparents.
> It's expensive but let's be frank, we're okay with thousands of people dying annually because we don't want to spend the money to do anything about it.
This gets to the question of what gives the most impact for our buck. If saving lives if the question we would first need to decide if all lives are equal and whether there are other causes of death that can be more easily or cheaply mitigated.
If the goal is to save on the scale of thousands of lives, investing in helping our people eat better would almost certainly make a bigger impact, I'm sure there are many other examples that would be more efficient than retrofitting all school buildings with ventilation systems effective enough to show a change in Covid deaths.
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Stop. Getting. Infected.
There is no living with the pandemic.
There is no living with the pandemic.
Not quite sure what you mean, humans have lives with plenty of viruses that circulate regularly and people don't choose to get infected.
The term pandemic is also pretty specifically defined as the time period where an infection is spreading rapidly through a population. Once it has spread everywhere you can't accurately keep calling it a pandemic, the period of rapid spread is over.
The term pandemic is also pretty specifically defined as the time period where an infection is spreading rapidly through a population. Once it has spread everywhere you can't accurately keep calling it a pandemic, the period of rapid spread is over.
How about do something to help it now instead of claiming it's endemic which it definitely is not. Clean air great. Doing something now to stop the damn spread, better.
There is no living with the pandemic.
There is no living with the pandemic.
It's endemic and impossible to get rid of. This is demonstrably true simply because animals can catch it, and we can't do anything about that.
And, of course, it's still wherever it originally came from.
And, of course, it's still wherever it originally came from.
I am literally advocating for preventing, or at least reducing, spread in schools in this very comment, and as a parent, have skin in the game. Endemic doesn't mean harmless.
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Huh, I used the extra time I had during Covid to educate myself on health, nutrition, exercise.
I lost 15 kg, reached my target BMI and have been replacing fat with muscle since.
I am the healthiest I've ever been in my adult life thanks to Covid.
I am the healthiest I've ever been in my adult life thanks to Covid.
That’s fantastic. Yeah, what is it with all these people who didn’t use their time being boarded up inside their apartments and houses for months at a time for the first and hopefully last time in their lives, to better themselves. Wusses.
Amazing. Great job.
My first thought was that I saw a lot of people attempt to 'party' their way through the pandemic.
https://covid19.nih.gov/news-and-stories/risky-drinking-alco...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335891/
That doesn't mean corona viruses can't also cause type 2 diabetes, but it does muddy things.
https://covid19.nih.gov/news-and-stories/risky-drinking-alco...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335891/
That doesn't mean corona viruses can't also cause type 2 diabetes, but it does muddy things.
I recommend the book "the glucose revolution" by jessie inchauspe. It is a pretty good book to understand blood sugar, and can go a long way to help you prevent diabetes, manage your energy, cravings and weight.
Benjamin Bikman „Why We Get Sick“ is what I can recommend. His book is spot on regarding insulin resistance, discussing consequences and effective prevention strategies.
This isn't surprising. Physical activity primes GLUT-4 in muscles to take in glucose from the blood stream. No physical activity = chronically higher blood glucose.
There is a lot of research linking diabetes to inflammation.
Inflammation is frequently caused by infection. It can also be caused by changes in body chemistry and those changes then tend to foster more infection
Additionally, lack of muscle mass is known to worsen insulin resistance.
Inflammation is frequently caused by infection. It can also be caused by changes in body chemistry and those changes then tend to foster more infection
Additionally, lack of muscle mass is known to worsen insulin resistance.
Fixing this as an individual is not that hard. Stop eating processed foods, eat whole foods. And if you're severely insulin resistant, consider a temporary low carb diet.
On a societal level, screw these giant processed food companies.
Due to the sorry state of journalism, social media, and people's capacity for critical/ethical thinking, I expect the internet to very soon be flooded with "covid vaccines proven to cause diabetes in children".
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From the article itself:
and note that diabetes has increased in very specific groups, not generally at the same rate across everybody that caught Covid.
For a comprehensive picture of multifactor incidence of diabetes see, say, this Australian health release:
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/diabetes/diabetes/contents/t...
lots of graphs showing incidence against age, sex, socioeconimcs, etc.