Chinese airline completes maiden passenger flight with domestically built plane(caixinglobal.com)
caixinglobal.com
Chinese airline completes maiden passenger flight with domestically built plane
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-12-30/china-eastern-unit-completes-maiden-passenger-flight-with-domestically-built-plane-101645055.html?rkey=4jojc%2BU9Dvsngy8ZDEibRfFL%2FE7ci4pK8bNFOzBEfLyZ3HhuWefoyg%3D%3D&cxg=web&Sfrom=twitter
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There was a general claim from the late 80s to 90s that the invisible hand of the market would eventually move Americans to higher paying fields while allowing low wage international competition in manufacturing.
As of 2020 the US has not seen these new jobs materialize outside the upper 5% of wage earners in the economy. The trend also shows that the US is losing the capability to manufacture high-end products such as iphones, planes ( 737-max), and trains. The manufacturing jobs which are returning tend to be making the same things that were made 3 decades ago with both inferior wages and quality to what those workers did previously (see American Factory).
While lifting billions of people out of poverty in China and the developed world is a laudable achievement, and the realization of competitive international products was nigh inevitable - the elimination of domestic manufacturing in the US was largely the result of policy choices which enabled businesses to move out of US environmental and labor regulations while still selling into the US market.
As of 2020 the US has not seen these new jobs materialize outside the upper 5% of wage earners in the economy. The trend also shows that the US is losing the capability to manufacture high-end products such as iphones, planes ( 737-max), and trains. The manufacturing jobs which are returning tend to be making the same things that were made 3 decades ago with both inferior wages and quality to what those workers did previously (see American Factory).
While lifting billions of people out of poverty in China and the developed world is a laudable achievement, and the realization of competitive international products was nigh inevitable - the elimination of domestic manufacturing in the US was largely the result of policy choices which enabled businesses to move out of US environmental and labor regulations while still selling into the US market.
> There was a general claim from the late 80s to 90s that the invisible hand of the market would eventually move Americans to higher paying fields while allowing low wage international competition in manufacturing.
Yeah, that was super short sighted. It boggles the mind that anyone could have believed that replacing many of the core productive bits of the economy with fluff like management (and ownership), finance, and hospitality would lead to anything but weakness. It's not like people in other countries are going to do most of the actual productive work and continue to let Americans lord over them indefinitely. Under that plan, America would just seem to climb until everyone else realizes there's no there there anymore, and then it will fall to a 3rd world economy who's main advantage is people there will be desperate enough to work for low wages for the new wealthy countries. Of course, some Americans will experience wealth over their lifetimes as that happens, but they're basically getting fat and happy by eating their family's seed corn.
Yeah, that was super short sighted. It boggles the mind that anyone could have believed that replacing many of the core productive bits of the economy with fluff like management (and ownership), finance, and hospitality would lead to anything but weakness. It's not like people in other countries are going to do most of the actual productive work and continue to let Americans lord over them indefinitely. Under that plan, America would just seem to climb until everyone else realizes there's no there there anymore, and then it will fall to a 3rd world economy who's main advantage is people there will be desperate enough to work for low wages for the new wealthy countries. Of course, some Americans will experience wealth over their lifetimes as that happens, but they're basically getting fat and happy by eating their family's seed corn.
Turns out following exactly that line of orthodox (Comparative Advantage) is how you get a PhD in economics. The theory makes perfect sense and can be observed to be true in evidence across the world. Where it fails is that governments, politicians and central banks understand the theory as well and can use it to their advantage.
Namely this: you can bankrupt your competition by undercutting them - this is capitalism 101. Turns out you can do this at country-scale too! It is obvious but PhD economists cannot see it happen. They will hold onto their comparative advantage theory all the way to the poorhouse.
One supposed limiting factor to country-level jungle of capitalism is the Impossible Trinity. Quoting wikipedia: "It is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time: 1. a fixed foreign exchange rate 2. free capital movement (absence of capital controls) 3. an independent monetary policy"
Like an undying belief in Comparative Advantage, you cannot move up to the upper echelons of PhD Economist work without a bedrock belief in the Impossible Trinity.
In reality, turns out a dual currency structure is a great way to blow through the limitations of the Impossible Trinity. China is a spectacular success in lifting hundreds of millions of people out poverty. The Chinese people are hard working and innovative. One of their genius moves has been to create a dual-currency structure: the onshore and offshore yuan.
This dual currency structure is an absolutely brilliant solution - it affords the Chinese leadership tremendous opportunity to manage their own growth while circumventing the Impossible Trinity.
What is hard for me understand is why Econ PhDs with obvious evidence in front of them continue to disregard reality.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internationalization_of_the_re...
Namely this: you can bankrupt your competition by undercutting them - this is capitalism 101. Turns out you can do this at country-scale too! It is obvious but PhD economists cannot see it happen. They will hold onto their comparative advantage theory all the way to the poorhouse.
One supposed limiting factor to country-level jungle of capitalism is the Impossible Trinity. Quoting wikipedia: "It is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time: 1. a fixed foreign exchange rate 2. free capital movement (absence of capital controls) 3. an independent monetary policy"
Like an undying belief in Comparative Advantage, you cannot move up to the upper echelons of PhD Economist work without a bedrock belief in the Impossible Trinity.
In reality, turns out a dual currency structure is a great way to blow through the limitations of the Impossible Trinity. China is a spectacular success in lifting hundreds of millions of people out poverty. The Chinese people are hard working and innovative. One of their genius moves has been to create a dual-currency structure: the onshore and offshore yuan.
This dual currency structure is an absolutely brilliant solution - it affords the Chinese leadership tremendous opportunity to manage their own growth while circumventing the Impossible Trinity.
What is hard for me understand is why Econ PhDs with obvious evidence in front of them continue to disregard reality.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internationalization_of_the_re...
> It boggles the mind that anyone could have believed that replacing many of the core productive bits of the economy with fluff like management (and ownership), finance, and hospitality would lead to anything but weakness.
When the decision is largely made by the managerial and financier classes...
All of the "smartest people in the room" come through economics educations based on pat 2-line graphs and ricardian tables that make extremely grand claims about the world, and they all come out thinking the same way. They're not trying to be crooked, they're repeating what they were taught.
When the decision is largely made by the managerial and financier classes...
All of the "smartest people in the room" come through economics educations based on pat 2-line graphs and ricardian tables that make extremely grand claims about the world, and they all come out thinking the same way. They're not trying to be crooked, they're repeating what they were taught.
It's mind-blowing how wrong they have been and yet continue to be turned to for major policy decisions and thought.
Who else you going to turn to? Someone who was drummed out of the club for questioning things that everyone knows?
They haven't been universally "wrong" - just wrong for large segments of the population. Equities in America (which are majority owned by the wealthiest top 1%) have done great and the wealth of those at the top has multiplied several times over.
Given that a quarter of all political contributions are donated by the wealthiest top 0.01% (no, not a typo - and 84% of politicians take more from the top 0.01% than all donors giving less than $200), it is entirely unsurprising to me that our policy reflects their priorities.
Given that a quarter of all political contributions are donated by the wealthiest top 0.01% (no, not a typo - and 84% of politicians take more from the top 0.01% than all donors giving less than $200), it is entirely unsurprising to me that our policy reflects their priorities.
I think crushing organized labor was higher on their priority list than maintaining America’s industrial capacity.
The recommended way to “rise” has been to get a higher education. Or, as the Blair mantra had it: “Education, education, education.” Sandel homes in on a 2013 speech by Obama in which the president told students: “We live in a 21st-century global economy. And in a global economy jobs can go anywhere. Companies, they’re looking for the best-educated people wherever they live. If you don’t have a good education, then it’s going to be hard for you to find a job that pays the living wage.” For those willing to make the requisite effort, there was the promise that: “This country will always be a place where you can make it if you try.” https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/sep/06/michael-sandel...
This manifested in an industrial policy which pushed millions of motivated citizens to mortgage their 20s in favor of english, philosophy, and psychology degrees. Education does not directly translate to remunerative employment.
Working on an automotive line still pays ~2-4x higher than being a manager at a Starbucks, with added benefits like a regular work week and weekends.
Working on an automotive line still pays ~2-4x higher than being a manager at a Starbucks, with added benefits like a regular work week and weekends.
Once the job market for graduates started to saturate they told people they should go into STEM. Once the STEM job market saturated they said people should become programmers.
Looking at college applications now and the struggles of students I'm talking to about it, plus the college admissions scandal, I really don't know if education is the silver bullet claimed. Graduating even with a STEM PhD from a mediocre state school means less than graduating from an Ivy league with a bachelors in literature. In order to get into a prestigious school you have to play an incredibly bullshit game- apparently one significantly influential university this year wanted to know how students would eat a raw potato.
To me, the relationship between education and class is a bit more insidious and doesn't necessarily flow the way that benefits society.
To me, the relationship between education and class is a bit more insidious and doesn't necessarily flow the way that benefits society.
To be fair, deciding to get a STEM PhD isn’t a financial decision at all. At best of the distance between getting a job in that field vs not but you should be cognizant off there being other alternatives.
But if your goal Of to be an academic or researcher (in higher education or industry) the name of the school on your diploma masters. A mediocre Harvard PhD graduate will probably still have Job for life somewhere (depending in the field).
But choosing to get a no name PhD is certainly not a decision optimized for earning potential or job opportunities.
But if your goal Of to be an academic or researcher (in higher education or industry) the name of the school on your diploma masters. A mediocre Harvard PhD graduate will probably still have Job for life somewhere (depending in the field).
But choosing to get a no name PhD is certainly not a decision optimized for earning potential or job opportunities.
Manufacturing requires capital. We’ve had some of the highest effective tax rates on capital in the world for a while, and the Trump tax cuts didn’t help that much.
A California corporation has to pay roughly 30% of its profits to the state and federal government to start. Then it’s shareholders have to pay 25-30% of what’s left to their state and federal government. In practice that’s over a 50% rate, even if the shareholder is a low income retiree. There is little progressivity in taxing investment profits.
No wonder multinational US companies rarely bring profits from foreign subsidiaries back to the US.
A California corporation has to pay roughly 30% of its profits to the state and federal government to start. Then it’s shareholders have to pay 25-30% of what’s left to their state and federal government. In practice that’s over a 50% rate, even if the shareholder is a low income retiree. There is little progressivity in taxing investment profits.
No wonder multinational US companies rarely bring profits from foreign subsidiaries back to the US.
The US is literally printing capital right now, and local governments are willing to hand Billions to corporations which promise to create manufacturing campuses.
Why is lowering interest rates not resulting in increased manufacturing capacity as it did prior to recent years?
Why is lowering interest rates not resulting in increased manufacturing capacity as it did prior to recent years?
Dollars aren’t capital. The fed can double the dollars in circulation tomorrow, but that doesn’t change the amount of manufacturing machinery in the country.
Because China can simply point and say ‘whatever the price is there, it will be cheaper here’ because their population is willing to take huge hits to their purchasing power (because they were recently so poor).
> We’ve had some of the highest effective tax rates on capital in the world for a while, and the Trump tax cuts didn’t help that much.
Source on any of this? I don't think this is true - both effective and statutory corporate tax is lower. When factoring in things like the estate tax on capital, capital gains tax, etc. - all is much lower than during the 20th century.
> In practice that’s over a 50% rate, even if the shareholder is a low income retiree.
Among equity held by American households, the richest 1% own more than 50% of that equity - and the top 5% owns the lion's share (upwards of 3/4s). The "low income retiree" narrative is overstated. Moreover, that retiree could count paid dividends as ordinary income, which is taxed progressively (10% or less effective tax rate) if they are low-income.
Meanwhile, the estate tax is much lower than it was during the majority of the 20th century, despite the fact that more than half of all wealth is not earned but inherited by the wealthiest 5% of all American households (ie. the median dollar in the economy is inherited, not paid as a wage or from capital gains)
Source on any of this? I don't think this is true - both effective and statutory corporate tax is lower. When factoring in things like the estate tax on capital, capital gains tax, etc. - all is much lower than during the 20th century.
> In practice that’s over a 50% rate, even if the shareholder is a low income retiree.
Among equity held by American households, the richest 1% own more than 50% of that equity - and the top 5% owns the lion's share (upwards of 3/4s). The "low income retiree" narrative is overstated. Moreover, that retiree could count paid dividends as ordinary income, which is taxed progressively (10% or less effective tax rate) if they are low-income.
Meanwhile, the estate tax is much lower than it was during the majority of the 20th century, despite the fact that more than half of all wealth is not earned but inherited by the wealthiest 5% of all American households (ie. the median dollar in the economy is inherited, not paid as a wage or from capital gains)
> Manufacturing requires capital. We’ve had some of the highest effective tax rates on capital in the world for a while, and the Trump tax cuts didn’t help that much.
IMHO, that's mistaking a boogeyman for a cause. The real cause here is any policy that allows important productive capability to be moved away in search of short/medium term profit increases. The idea that you'd replace those jobs with higher-paying fluff was just a little sugar to make the poison taste better.
Also, I can't remember exactly where I read it, but some well-known successful businessman candidly said that lower taxes actually make it less likely for him to invest profits back into his business.
IMHO, that's mistaking a boogeyman for a cause. The real cause here is any policy that allows important productive capability to be moved away in search of short/medium term profit increases. The idea that you'd replace those jobs with higher-paying fluff was just a little sugar to make the poison taste better.
Also, I can't remember exactly where I read it, but some well-known successful businessman candidly said that lower taxes actually make it less likely for him to invest profits back into his business.
Much of the EU has similarly high tax rates on capital. I haven’t found figures on China, but I have a hard time believing their growth is simply a matter of tax policy.
Arguing about taxes is a race to the bottom in any case. What matters is returns on capital invested, which of course is affected by tax rates but not exclusively by them. There’s a reason Silicon Valley exists and it’s not because it’s always been cheap to produce there.
Arguing about taxes is a race to the bottom in any case. What matters is returns on capital invested, which of course is affected by tax rates but not exclusively by them. There’s a reason Silicon Valley exists and it’s not because it’s always been cheap to produce there.
It’s not a race to the bottom. Taxes on reinvested capital should be zero, you don’t eat your seed corn. Eating less of it than another country doesn’t hurt them or you.
We should tax distributions that aren’t reinvested, and do it progressively.
We should tax distributions that aren’t reinvested, and do it progressively.
Maybe I don't understand, isn't that already true? Companies pay taxes on net (profit), not gross (revenue), outside of some state tax systems like Washington's.
Profit is the net result of investing capital. Revenues don’t matter.
If your startup turns a profit but still wants or needs to reinvest those profits in hiring more or more equipment, they still have to pay taxes on those earnings and only can reinvest half of them (there are some provisions to shield some reinvested profits from being taxed, but they are limited).
I’m all for taxing dividends and capital gains when investors cash out, I’m just saying don’t do it on profits that are reinvested.
If your startup turns a profit but still wants or needs to reinvest those profits in hiring more or more equipment, they still have to pay taxes on those earnings and only can reinvest half of them (there are some provisions to shield some reinvested profits from being taxed, but they are limited).
I’m all for taxing dividends and capital gains when investors cash out, I’m just saying don’t do it on profits that are reinvested.
> Yeah, that was super short sighted. It boggles the mind that anyone could have believed that replacing many of the core productive bits of the economy with fluff like management (and ownership), finance, and hospitality would lead to anything but weakness.
I would add that the US's apogee was due to it's role on WW2, whose success was due to the US's preexisting industrial infrastructure, not only manufacturing capability but technical and scientific infrastructure that supported it.
Since then the US not only gave up on its main strategic asset but also handed it over on a silver platter to the next world power.
I would add that the US's apogee was due to it's role on WW2, whose success was due to the US's preexisting industrial infrastructure, not only manufacturing capability but technical and scientific infrastructure that supported it.
Since then the US not only gave up on its main strategic asset but also handed it over on a silver platter to the next world power.
Was it even avoidable with global competition putting pressure on price and cost? Americans just don't want to work for the same wages some in China may accept.
The US chooses to allow unlimited competition from China. China allows limited competition from US companies with their nascent industries.
Switzerland is a fascinating example of a country which almost entirely bans foreign competition in anything they can reasonably produce domestically. Costs are high, but wages are higher.
Switzerland is a fascinating example of a country which almost entirely bans foreign competition in anything they can reasonably produce domestically. Costs are high, but wages are higher.
This was probably working while the Swiss people were working and buying their products, but in Zurich Swiss people do banking and non-Swiss people engineering (and the number of non-Swiss people grow exponentially, now maybe 1% of people in Zurich is a Googler). They usually go to the German border for weekend shopping instead of buying the expensive Swiss products.
Do you have some references on how the bans work in Switzerland? I live in EU and have never heard about Swiss having some parasitic relationship with EU (meaning export to EU is ok, but import is not).
This article was on HN recently, and it does a pretty good job of explaining how we did this to ourselves by making the dollar the global reserve currency:
https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/
https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/
To be fair, American wages, outside of the bottom percentile jobs, are much higher than their counterparts in the developed world.
Yes, but not entirely as a policy of the government.
The industrial complex that was built up during world war II was unprecedented, and the post war boom enabled it to grow further, allowing for things like secondary supply chains, "related" niche industries, and creating many very large companies which went beyond manufacturing products into finance, among other things.
The thing is, after the first generation of management of those companies aged out, the second generation didn't have any idea about the unique circumstances that allowed that industrial base to be created.
They chose to believe it was because of American superiority, American know how, etc.
So when they couldn't sustain the levels of growth and profit their predecessors created, the industries started eating themselves, with mergers, acquisitions, corporate raiding (Private Equity) and regulatory capture to allow it all to happen. Achieving short term gains by shipping jobs offshore was just a necessary thing to "get theirs".
Boeing was once one of many, and now it's one of the last.
The US will be unable to rebuild that industrial base for the foreseeable future, because the unique combination of the post war boom, the government sponsored head start in the war, and the emergence of new technologies just don't exist any more.
Jobs going overseas aren't the problem, really, so them coming back makes little difference. The problem is that our huge head start after World War II is gone because it's eaten itself, and now we need to start over.
The industrial complex that was built up during world war II was unprecedented, and the post war boom enabled it to grow further, allowing for things like secondary supply chains, "related" niche industries, and creating many very large companies which went beyond manufacturing products into finance, among other things.
The thing is, after the first generation of management of those companies aged out, the second generation didn't have any idea about the unique circumstances that allowed that industrial base to be created.
They chose to believe it was because of American superiority, American know how, etc.
So when they couldn't sustain the levels of growth and profit their predecessors created, the industries started eating themselves, with mergers, acquisitions, corporate raiding (Private Equity) and regulatory capture to allow it all to happen. Achieving short term gains by shipping jobs offshore was just a necessary thing to "get theirs".
Boeing was once one of many, and now it's one of the last.
The US will be unable to rebuild that industrial base for the foreseeable future, because the unique combination of the post war boom, the government sponsored head start in the war, and the emergence of new technologies just don't exist any more.
Jobs going overseas aren't the problem, really, so them coming back makes little difference. The problem is that our huge head start after World War II is gone because it's eaten itself, and now we need to start over.
Exactly. With supply chain gone, so is the pipeline of training and producing world-class engineers, and of course the ecosystem of innovating in multiple industries. Looking back 100 years, we can see that the British thought that Americans were manufacturing low-end and low-quality stuff, and the glory of their British empire could last forever if their elites could control finance and politics. Well, it turns out what matters is productivity and innovation, and why on earth would the smart people in a country who owns end-to-end supply chains would ask for innovation another country who owns merely "management"?
Building a plane is hard, but possible. With large enough a market, a nation will be able to afford, and more importantly will have every reason to, conducting millions of rigorous experiments to figure out all the key technologies, be it manufacturing process, optimal parameters for air dynamics, or materials.
BTW, in case someone forgets, manufacturing at low cost is the hallmark of industrialization. It makes no sense for Americans to snort that Chinese could make things at a fraction of the cost, just as it makes no sense for the British to despise what American could mass produce 100 years ago.
Building a plane is hard, but possible. With large enough a market, a nation will be able to afford, and more importantly will have every reason to, conducting millions of rigorous experiments to figure out all the key technologies, be it manufacturing process, optimal parameters for air dynamics, or materials.
BTW, in case someone forgets, manufacturing at low cost is the hallmark of industrialization. It makes no sense for Americans to snort that Chinese could make things at a fraction of the cost, just as it makes no sense for the British to despise what American could mass produce 100 years ago.
> economy who's main advantage is people there will be desperate enough to work for low wages
That was Thacher's cunning plan. Break the unions and heavy industry. And then out compete Germany and France in the common market based on lower wages.
Did not work at all.
That was Thacher's cunning plan. Break the unions and heavy industry. And then out compete Germany and France in the common market based on lower wages.
Did not work at all.
> It boggles the mind that anyone could have believed that replacing many of the core productive bits of the economy with fluff like management (and ownership), finance, and hospitality would lead to anything but weakness.
It works well in the micro, but not the macro. Apple is a excellent example of this being ridiculously profitable: management, finance, R&D, engineering and all "high value" work is in the US, and the "boring" manufacturing stuff is handled offshore. This works very well for shareholders, management and skilled employees. The American machinists and die-makers (who don't get a say) lose out, and over time, their skills will be lost as the experienced workers retire without passing on their knowledge - then the whole industry suffers.
It works well in the micro, but not the macro. Apple is a excellent example of this being ridiculously profitable: management, finance, R&D, engineering and all "high value" work is in the US, and the "boring" manufacturing stuff is handled offshore. This works very well for shareholders, management and skilled employees. The American machinists and die-makers (who don't get a say) lose out, and over time, their skills will be lost as the experienced workers retire without passing on their knowledge - then the whole industry suffers.
China's strategy was always to try to dominate the "boring" work on the low end of the value chain and then ratchet their way up the value chain, cutting out foreign competitors at every stage - first in the domestic market and then in foreign markets.
They've now almost reached the top of the value chain after about 30-35 years of diligently following this strategy. They can manufacture phones every bit as good as Apple's without help.
China used to need Apple more than Apple needs China. Now, Apple needs China more than Apple. Apple can't move its supply chain home without eye watering costs.
It won't be long before Apple phones start to lag Chinese phones technologically and it won't be long before China can start threatening sanctions that hurt the US more than they'd hurt China.
They've now almost reached the top of the value chain after about 30-35 years of diligently following this strategy. They can manufacture phones every bit as good as Apple's without help.
China used to need Apple more than Apple needs China. Now, Apple needs China more than Apple. Apple can't move its supply chain home without eye watering costs.
It won't be long before Apple phones start to lag Chinese phones technologically and it won't be long before China can start threatening sanctions that hurt the US more than they'd hurt China.
This has been apparent for a long time, but decision-makers in the US have greatly reduced the horizons of time-periods they care about (very little long-term strategic thinking both politically, especially the executive branch, and for company executives & wall street). So if a tactic works now and brings in results now to ensure the bonus or re-election, then it's implemented regardless of long-term harm, since someone else will deal with that at some point in the future.
China took advantage of America's growing individual greed and short-termism. American companies know this, but they can't help themselves.
China took advantage of America's growing individual greed and short-termism. American companies know this, but they can't help themselves.
I think the degeneration of the salary condition of the working class (including engineers) has two reasons:
1) The decline of Soviet Union. Since the largest opponent is gone, elites of US did not need to suck up the working class as they did not need that many manufactoring power any more, and they could finally throw the working class under the bus because they didn't need to virtual signal their "higher living standard of the working class".
2) The rise of competitive investment banking, including predative M&A and other "unethical" stuffs that blue blood bankers did not do (much) during the 50s and 60s.
1) The decline of Soviet Union. Since the largest opponent is gone, elites of US did not need to suck up the working class as they did not need that many manufactoring power any more, and they could finally throw the working class under the bus because they didn't need to virtual signal their "higher living standard of the working class".
2) The rise of competitive investment banking, including predative M&A and other "unethical" stuffs that blue blood bankers did not do (much) during the 50s and 60s.
>> There was a general claim from the late 80s to 90s that the invisible hand of the market would eventually move Americans to higher paying fields while allowing low wage international competition in manufacturing.
A friend of mine was in business school in the 90s. She told me all that low end production was going to be outsourced to lower cost places, and that the US would be mostly management.
I was stunned that not just a person, but a school could be so stupid. What, did they think the Chinese could make shit but would never learn how to manage things or design them? Worse yet, they can now do design, production, logistics, and the US no longer knows how to make a lot of things.
I've even read that Krugman now sees that as a mistake.
Way to go, followers of Jack Welch.
A friend of mine was in business school in the 90s. She told me all that low end production was going to be outsourced to lower cost places, and that the US would be mostly management.
I was stunned that not just a person, but a school could be so stupid. What, did they think the Chinese could make shit but would never learn how to manage things or design them? Worse yet, they can now do design, production, logistics, and the US no longer knows how to make a lot of things.
I've even read that Krugman now sees that as a mistake.
Way to go, followers of Jack Welch.
"We'll export the factories, but keep all the manufacturing expertise here", is not something you'll often hear, from a manufacturing engineer. I once asked a Harvard Business School professor, how such nonsense could have been believed - did no one ask? He replied, I taught that... "the ideas were in the air".
I've wondered, whether the concern for foreign propaganda, targeting US communities disconnected from reality by group-think, is perhaps misguided, in its focus on populists. Sure, sometimes you target propaganda at troops. But the usual and higher-leverage target for deception, is leadership.
I've wondered, whether the concern for foreign propaganda, targeting US communities disconnected from reality by group-think, is perhaps misguided, in its focus on populists. Sure, sometimes you target propaganda at troops. But the usual and higher-leverage target for deception, is leadership.
> planes (737-max)
Huh? That plane had a design issue, not a manufacturing issue. While the loss of life was tragic, it also wasn't a major design blunder; it's the sort of thing you can fix with a new sensor and a software update. On the other hand, the 787 shows that the US can build planes.
> trains
Bombardier still makes trains in North America, and Alsom builds some trains in the US.
I actually agree with your point, but tech manufacturing moving to East Asia is the bigger story. There's also an argument that the jobs didn't materialize because the workers weren't educated enough for better paying jobs and were too expensive for manufacturing jobs.
Huh? That plane had a design issue, not a manufacturing issue. While the loss of life was tragic, it also wasn't a major design blunder; it's the sort of thing you can fix with a new sensor and a software update. On the other hand, the 787 shows that the US can build planes.
> trains
Bombardier still makes trains in North America, and Alsom builds some trains in the US.
I actually agree with your point, but tech manufacturing moving to East Asia is the bigger story. There's also an argument that the jobs didn't materialize because the workers weren't educated enough for better paying jobs and were too expensive for manufacturing jobs.
> the elimination of domestic manufacturing in the US was largely the result of policy choices which enabled businesses to move out of US environmental and labor regulations while still selling into the US market.
In other words, greed.
In other words, greed.
We can't overlook that the 80s and 90s were 30 years ago and a lot happens in 30 years. The entire political zeitgeist of the US for the last 30 years has not been a focus on building wealth or general prosperity. The government has official policies and occasionally rhetoric that excessive savings are a problem.
Furthermore, speaking for my observations of the West, most of the political focus has been on progressing redistributive and environmental policy. Resisted every step of the way by people screaming that the policies are economic disasters. Mining and manufacturing is simply not easy in the West and doing what China does would be flat out illegal - so it isn't so strange if the States starts falling behind.
There have been a lot of changes in the US for the last 30 years. Are there any that can honestly be said to have been pro-free-market, or even experimentally proven to be good ideas? China has been running constant experiments with free market policies in places like Shenzhen and has been building engines of manufacturing wealth and prosperity. Running experiments with an open mind is a great way to figure out what works.
Furthermore, speaking for my observations of the West, most of the political focus has been on progressing redistributive and environmental policy. Resisted every step of the way by people screaming that the policies are economic disasters. Mining and manufacturing is simply not easy in the West and doing what China does would be flat out illegal - so it isn't so strange if the States starts falling behind.
There have been a lot of changes in the US for the last 30 years. Are there any that can honestly be said to have been pro-free-market, or even experimentally proven to be good ideas? China has been running constant experiments with free market policies in places like Shenzhen and has been building engines of manufacturing wealth and prosperity. Running experiments with an open mind is a great way to figure out what works.
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Both the US and China are good at running experiments. How they handle larger and larger experiments that fail is where both blunder.
>Furthermore, speaking for my observations of the West, most of the political focus has been on progressing redistributive and environmental policy.
I have literally no idea where you're getting this from, at least from the US's perspective. The EPA has been gutted by the GWB and Trump admins, and the courts blocked anything serious the Obama admin tried to do. There was "welfare reform" in the 90s which reduced redistribution. Taxes on the wealthy have fallen a bunch. The bankruptcy reform in the mid 2000s was a disaster.
I have literally no idea where you're getting this from, at least from the US's perspective. The EPA has been gutted by the GWB and Trump admins, and the courts blocked anything serious the Obama admin tried to do. There was "welfare reform" in the 90s which reduced redistribution. Taxes on the wealthy have fallen a bunch. The bankruptcy reform in the mid 2000s was a disaster.
So do you know anything about what you’re talking about? Assembling iPhones is trivial. If that’s your idea of high end manufacture then I have news for you.
Assembly != Manufacture. The US is not able to produce the screens or processors for a modern smartphone. Those are far from trivial.
This would be a good place to share that news. Right now all I see is a low-effort dismissal in response to a comment that might be flawed, but at least has some effort behind it.
> Assembling iPhones is trivial
I think it might be you who doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
Many startups have tried to enter the consumer electronics space because they thought assembly would be “trivial”, only to find that once the first EVT samples start coming back from China it is anything but trivial.
The tolerances on an iPhone are some of the best around. People don’t always appreciate just how strict the tolerances are for hardware assembly until they’ve tried to do it themselves.
I think it might be you who doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
Many startups have tried to enter the consumer electronics space because they thought assembly would be “trivial”, only to find that once the first EVT samples start coming back from China it is anything but trivial.
The tolerances on an iPhone are some of the best around. People don’t always appreciate just how strict the tolerances are for hardware assembly until they’ve tried to do it themselves.
Not to mention the scale of the operation allows them to fit parts with varying tolerances together in a way that causes the best fitment when put together while having less waste.
The problem seems to be that there was a loss of focus on high end manufacturing in the US. Germany and northern Italy are the counter examples but even those countries were not immune to globalization.
Also, it may be that globalization is coming for them next but that they are higher up the hierarchy.
There seems to be a reawakening towards manufacturing in the US with electric cars and rockets. It’s not just Tesla and SpaceX. It’s Rivian, Rocket Lab, Virgin Galactic, etc... I hope it strengthens.
Also, it may be that globalization is coming for them next but that they are higher up the hierarchy.
There seems to be a reawakening towards manufacturing in the US with electric cars and rockets. It’s not just Tesla and SpaceX. It’s Rivian, Rocket Lab, Virgin Galactic, etc... I hope it strengthens.
I hope Rivian thrives. Downstate IL (where their factory is) is struggling and needs the manufacturing jobs to come bac.
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The US has always done high end manufacturing. The difference from the 70s is that it requires a lot fewer humans. Manufacturing output in the US is up ~75% from 1998-2017:
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manu...
Yet employment is down ~4 million people in the same period:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP
Edit: Here's a FRED blog post talking about the same thing: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2014/12/manufacturing-is-gro...
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manu...
Yet employment is down ~4 million people in the same period:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP
Edit: Here's a FRED blog post talking about the same thing: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2014/12/manufacturing-is-gro...
Interestingly, many other parts of an iPhone are built in China. Is each of them trivial?
I think the size and complexity of FoxConn speaks for itself. Manufacture and assembly of an iphone with its constituent parts requires high precision, volume, high quality control, and massive supply chains - hence Tim Cook does not believe it could be done in the US.
They would figure it out if they had to. The technology is not lost and for all the hate it garners the military industrial complex keeps the seeds of industry alive in the US. They would grow if there was an economic demand niche to grow into. Nobody has the stones to make it happen, though.
The labor & environmental arbitrage mafia won the war, so fixing the problem is going to be an uphill battle, rather than merely preventing the market from rolling downhill.
The labor & environmental arbitrage mafia won the war, so fixing the problem is going to be an uphill battle, rather than merely preventing the market from rolling downhill.
> The labor & environmental arbitrage mafia won the war
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyJfOPSS2Uc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyJfOPSS2Uc
Steve Jobs himself said these jobs aren't coming back to America
https://www.heraldtribune.com/article/LK/20120123/News/60519...
https://www.heraldtribune.com/article/LK/20120123/News/60519...
But Tim Cook said he would try, with details & results unclear:
https://money.cnn.com/2017/05/03/technology/apple-tim-cook-a...
https://money.cnn.com/2017/05/03/technology/apple-tim-cook-a...
Lol
Here are some reasons. I'm not familiar enough with aircraft to argue either way though
"Is China’s ARJ21 Just A MD-80 Copy Or Is It The Beginning Of China’s Rise In Commercial Aviation?"
"The ARJ21 is partially built on specs from the old MD80, thanks to the presence of U.S. manufacturers in China. McDonnell Douglas was operating an MD80 manufacturing facility in Shaghai prior to its merger with Boeing, thanks to a lucrative deal inked in the early 90s. During this time period, presses and other parts were shipped from the United States to the Douglas facility. This gave the Chinese access to Western technology.
Once Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas, production of the MD80 ceased, marking the end of an era. After abandoning the final MD80 and MD90 assembly lines in China after about 30 frames, Aviation Industrial Company inherited McDonnell Douglas tooling."
"It did not take long before China was announcing it’s “new” regional airliner project, unveiling a design that was eerily similar to the MD80 design. COMAC officials in Shanghai vehemently defend the ARJ21 as an original design. However, despite COMAC’s protests to the contrary, it is commonly accepted that the ARJ21 is fundamentally a redesign of the DC9. "
https://www.avgeekery.com/is-chinas-arj21-just-a-md-80-copy-...
"Is China’s ARJ21 Just A MD-80 Copy Or Is It The Beginning Of China’s Rise In Commercial Aviation?"
"The ARJ21 is partially built on specs from the old MD80, thanks to the presence of U.S. manufacturers in China. McDonnell Douglas was operating an MD80 manufacturing facility in Shaghai prior to its merger with Boeing, thanks to a lucrative deal inked in the early 90s. During this time period, presses and other parts were shipped from the United States to the Douglas facility. This gave the Chinese access to Western technology.
Once Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas, production of the MD80 ceased, marking the end of an era. After abandoning the final MD80 and MD90 assembly lines in China after about 30 frames, Aviation Industrial Company inherited McDonnell Douglas tooling."
"It did not take long before China was announcing it’s “new” regional airliner project, unveiling a design that was eerily similar to the MD80 design. COMAC officials in Shanghai vehemently defend the ARJ21 as an original design. However, despite COMAC’s protests to the contrary, it is commonly accepted that the ARJ21 is fundamentally a redesign of the DC9. "
https://www.avgeekery.com/is-chinas-arj21-just-a-md-80-copy-...
You should see how Toyota got started. They aren't exactly ashamed of the fact that they reverse engineered a Chevrolet, its displayed quite proudly in their factory museum.
You're right. Many Japanese products started out as copies of products from other companies in the West. However, within a few years, those same Japanese companies were producing original designs with no derivatives of foreign products.
Has China gotten to that point yet? imo, it's really hard to achieve when you have a more collectivist culture vs an individualistic one that's ruled by an authoritarian government.
Has China gotten to that point yet? imo, it's really hard to achieve when you have a more collectivist culture vs an individualistic one that's ruled by an authoritarian government.
I would argue they have and there are plenty of examples though the closest to aviation would be high speed railways.
Their first trainsets were all manufactured with licensed technology (Hexie Hao) and as their demand for, and expertise on, trainsets increased they created new models from scratch (Fuxing Hao) that are consider technologically superior to other alternatives _and_ at a price advantage. (There are many reports on a recent push to start exporting those new Fuxing Hao trainsets that started operating in 2017)
Their first trainsets were all manufactured with licensed technology (Hexie Hao) and as their demand for, and expertise on, trainsets increased they created new models from scratch (Fuxing Hao) that are consider technologically superior to other alternatives _and_ at a price advantage. (There are many reports on a recent push to start exporting those new Fuxing Hao trainsets that started operating in 2017)
About Christmas the news of the rollout of a bullet freight train made the rounds. At 350kph - km/h or about 217mph.
Looked only slightly modified from their passenger trains. One large sliding door in the middle of each car, with a folding out ramp, and where usually the passenger seats were, there is now something like in freight planes, where standardised freight containers easily slide into their positions via slots in the ground and rolls. Automatically!
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-12/24/c_139615873.htm (contains short video showing operations)
That is a real FIRST!
(Yah, Yah! color me impressed. But it IS impressive!)
Looked only slightly modified from their passenger trains. One large sliding door in the middle of each car, with a folding out ramp, and where usually the passenger seats were, there is now something like in freight planes, where standardised freight containers easily slide into their positions via slots in the ground and rolls. Automatically!
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-12/24/c_139615873.htm (contains short video showing operations)
That is a real FIRST!
(Yah, Yah! color me impressed. But it IS impressive!)
I mean, China has working maglev trains. I’ve had the fortune to ride one. That’s certainly far beyond just another train set.
Japan and Korea have collectivist cultures and made that leap in the past 50 years. Singapore has an authoritarian government and also managed the leap.
Has China gotten to that point yet for planes? No, they clearly just started. But they're clearly there for some industries like electronics where Shenzen is the place to be if you're building hardware startups.
Has China gotten to that point yet for planes? No, they clearly just started. But they're clearly there for some industries like electronics where Shenzen is the place to be if you're building hardware startups.
> Japan and Korea have collectivist cultures and made that leap in the past 50 years. Singapore has an authoritarian government and also managed the leap.
Japan and South Korea are both democratic republics. South Korea's economic seemed to transform overnight, once they transitioned from a dictatorship into a democratic republic. Like it or not, the lack of free speech has an economic cost.
> Singapore has an authoritarian government and also managed the leap.
Isn't Singapore more or less a democratic republic now? Singapore is also able to mitigate their own lack of creativity with immigration. I do not believe China has the same views regarding foreigners. I view Singapore more as an Asian Switzerland than a tech leader anyways. I also do not believe that Singapore's leaders believe in Mao style centralist control (of the economy at least)
> Has China gotten to that point yet for planes? No, they clearly just started.
They've been copying Russian aircraft for a while now. They haven't "just started".
Before Xi, China was slowly moving in the right direction for global dominance. China under Xi is moving backwards.
Japan and South Korea are both democratic republics. South Korea's economic seemed to transform overnight, once they transitioned from a dictatorship into a democratic republic. Like it or not, the lack of free speech has an economic cost.
> Singapore has an authoritarian government and also managed the leap.
Isn't Singapore more or less a democratic republic now? Singapore is also able to mitigate their own lack of creativity with immigration. I do not believe China has the same views regarding foreigners. I view Singapore more as an Asian Switzerland than a tech leader anyways. I also do not believe that Singapore's leaders believe in Mao style centralist control (of the economy at least)
> Has China gotten to that point yet for planes? No, they clearly just started.
They've been copying Russian aircraft for a while now. They haven't "just started".
Before Xi, China was slowly moving in the right direction for global dominance. China under Xi is moving backwards.
Not really. Japanese / SKorea success in tech are from massive conglomerates that function effectively the same as Chinese SEOs, see Chaebol, Zaibatsu. These are legacies of their authoritarian history. Free speech doesn't matter when building electronics or military hardware. It won't matter for semiconductors or turbojets. Japan / SKorea both have their indigenous nex-gen fighter programs, F-X2/3 for Japan, KAI KFX for Korea. China's J-20 that started a few years earlier is far more mature. Japan had help from US aviation and realized their indigenous capabilities were insufficient. J20 also ahead of Russian gen5, Su57 in most technical categories except power plant. Pattern is to copy 1 or 2 generations to learn and then indigenize. Maybe free speech matters for commercial cultural products, but the media products China exports like video games would suggest no.
China under Xi is going in the right direction for global dominance for the simple reason that he's one of the first leader since Mao to take military modernization seriously. Chinese money talks, but military hardware gatekeeps whether that conversation to happen in the first place. Which matters more and more now that China containment is official US policy. The alternative to Xi was Bo Xilai who would never have reformed the corrupt and ineffective military old guard. Now China has a massively expanding Navy with growing blue water capabilities, SCS bases, space infrastructure and enough indigenous weapons that even belligerent US under Pompeo doesn't have the guts to sail carrier through the Taiwan strait anymore. Clinton sent two. I use to be a Xi doubter, but it's hard to argue he's not doing an incredible job.
China under Xi is going in the right direction for global dominance for the simple reason that he's one of the first leader since Mao to take military modernization seriously. Chinese money talks, but military hardware gatekeeps whether that conversation to happen in the first place. Which matters more and more now that China containment is official US policy. The alternative to Xi was Bo Xilai who would never have reformed the corrupt and ineffective military old guard. Now China has a massively expanding Navy with growing blue water capabilities, SCS bases, space infrastructure and enough indigenous weapons that even belligerent US under Pompeo doesn't have the guts to sail carrier through the Taiwan strait anymore. Clinton sent two. I use to be a Xi doubter, but it's hard to argue he's not doing an incredible job.
Regarding Japan, their https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_F-2 had the first https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_electronically_scanned_... with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J/APG-1 which is the key part for a modern fighter. Developed by themselves. The rest is more or less exchangable. Could have used some Mirage/Rafale/Gripen/Mig/Sukhoi too.
F-X2 (gen 4+ with stealth), not F-2 (gen 4) which was joint JP/US project.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_X-2_Shinshin
F-X2 was primarily indigenous effort after US refused to export F22s. IIRC another factor was US was not forthcoming with tech/knowledge transfer on F2 project. F-X2 still had some US help, but stopped after demonstrator. Then rebooted into F-X / F-3 Godzilla recently, international project in draft stage. So to date, no tangible gen5 effort.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_X-2_Shinshin
F-X2 was primarily indigenous effort after US refused to export F22s. IIRC another factor was US was not forthcoming with tech/knowledge transfer on F2 project. F-X2 still had some US help, but stopped after demonstrator. Then rebooted into F-X / F-3 Godzilla recently, international project in draft stage. So to date, no tangible gen5 effort.
> Not really. Japanese / SKorea success in tech are from massive conglomerates that function effectively the same as Chinese SEOs, see Chaebol, Zaibatsu.
That's only part of the picture. I'm talking more lower level ie. artists, engineers and scientists
Sure, you need the infrastructure for investment and manufacturing but that doesn't solve the problem of nationally, stunted creativity
> Free speech doesn't matter when building electronics or military hardware
It does matter if you want to build something original and innovative, instead of yet another cheap copy. That requires creativity, which is dependent on free speech. I mean just take a look at mainland entertainment. Most of it consists of movies and shows about the distant past. It's not even close to what could have been done like what you see in Japan or SK. Maybe if China had a more individualist society, you'd have a better argument or even proof beyond one off exceptions like DJI
> China under Xi is going in the right direction for global dominance for the simple reason that he's one of the first leader since Mao to take military modernization seriously... Now China has a massively expanding Navy with growing blue water capabilities, SCS bases, space infrastructure and enough indigenous weapons that even belligerent US under Pompeo doesn't have the guts to sail carrier through the Taiwan strait anymore.
What does this matter when everyone important already has global, ballistic nuclear missiles? One could argue that it's a drain on GDP when it could be spent elsewhere. Most of the US deficit is due to wasteful, military spending.
> The alternative to Xi was Bo Xilai who would never have reformed the corrupt and ineffective military old guard.
How do you even know there are actual reforms vs Xi just having a good excuse for rounding up his enemies like Putin, when there's no free press?
That's only part of the picture. I'm talking more lower level ie. artists, engineers and scientists
Sure, you need the infrastructure for investment and manufacturing but that doesn't solve the problem of nationally, stunted creativity
> Free speech doesn't matter when building electronics or military hardware
It does matter if you want to build something original and innovative, instead of yet another cheap copy. That requires creativity, which is dependent on free speech. I mean just take a look at mainland entertainment. Most of it consists of movies and shows about the distant past. It's not even close to what could have been done like what you see in Japan or SK. Maybe if China had a more individualist society, you'd have a better argument or even proof beyond one off exceptions like DJI
> China under Xi is going in the right direction for global dominance for the simple reason that he's one of the first leader since Mao to take military modernization seriously... Now China has a massively expanding Navy with growing blue water capabilities, SCS bases, space infrastructure and enough indigenous weapons that even belligerent US under Pompeo doesn't have the guts to sail carrier through the Taiwan strait anymore.
What does this matter when everyone important already has global, ballistic nuclear missiles? One could argue that it's a drain on GDP when it could be spent elsewhere. Most of the US deficit is due to wasteful, military spending.
> The alternative to Xi was Bo Xilai who would never have reformed the corrupt and ineffective military old guard.
How do you even know there are actual reforms vs Xi just having a good excuse for rounding up his enemies like Putin, when there's no free press?
Where is evidence of nationally stunted creativity except dogwhistle talking points? There's no shortage of top tier Chinese designers across many fields where subjects tend to be more apolitical. In technical disciplines China is either climbing or on top of innovation / research / patent indexes normalized for quality i.e. not junk. The only thing China is stunted in is team sports. Which is perplexing, I guess too individualist.
>That requires creativity, which is dependent on free speech.
Citation needed. There's more to "entertainment" than mass media subject to rigorous censorship. Chinese entertainment is great if you don't care about politics. Great soviet artists existed under USSR. Chinese cinema tackled politics under CCP pre 90s when political discussion was less restricted. Censorship redirects where creativity goes, Chinese market likes their entertainment fine.
>original and innovative
Those aren't important priorities for military acquisition. Copy what works if it fits needs, innovate where it doesn't. China innovates on rocket force to sink US carriers, hence ahead in hypersonics. It matters because before nuclear war is conventional war. Conventional capability require to solve border disputes, become regional hegemon of a bunch of middle powers without nukes. And at minimum they need conventional capabilities to retake Taiwan.
> actual reforms
CCDI investigated/punished over 1M+ party officials, even Xi doesn't have that many enemies. But of course there was element of power consolidation, and completely justified in retrospect now that CIA confirmed (just this month) how far they've infiltrated CCP under Hu. This was suspected at time of CIA China debacle, but recent confirmation solidified that Xi was the right choice. As for actual reforms, PLAN building more tonnage in new ships per year than entire region combined. Western thinktanks analyze Chinese military modernization to death.
>That requires creativity, which is dependent on free speech.
Citation needed. There's more to "entertainment" than mass media subject to rigorous censorship. Chinese entertainment is great if you don't care about politics. Great soviet artists existed under USSR. Chinese cinema tackled politics under CCP pre 90s when political discussion was less restricted. Censorship redirects where creativity goes, Chinese market likes their entertainment fine.
>original and innovative
Those aren't important priorities for military acquisition. Copy what works if it fits needs, innovate where it doesn't. China innovates on rocket force to sink US carriers, hence ahead in hypersonics. It matters because before nuclear war is conventional war. Conventional capability require to solve border disputes, become regional hegemon of a bunch of middle powers without nukes. And at minimum they need conventional capabilities to retake Taiwan.
> actual reforms
CCDI investigated/punished over 1M+ party officials, even Xi doesn't have that many enemies. But of course there was element of power consolidation, and completely justified in retrospect now that CIA confirmed (just this month) how far they've infiltrated CCP under Hu. This was suspected at time of CIA China debacle, but recent confirmation solidified that Xi was the right choice. As for actual reforms, PLAN building more tonnage in new ships per year than entire region combined. Western thinktanks analyze Chinese military modernization to death.
> Where is evidence of nationally stunted creativity except dogwhistle talking points?
You're asking for evidence, yet you're not providing any either. You're partially right though. With China's gradual opening, there have been more mainland Chinese entering higher tiers in various disciplines. Still, that's not to say that China's creativity isn't crippled by its government. Personally, I feel it's a drop compared to what could be with a more democratic government. Also everything that we've seen so far is due to China opening up and decentralizing. I predict the opposite will happen in the future as Xi reverses the trend. Yes, it's conjecture, and I hope I'm wrong.
> Chinese entertainment is great if you don't care about politics.
This is just personal taste but imo it's terrible. The only works that have freedom are nationalistic in nature like the Three Body Problem, where it's easy to see what it really is once you substitute the West for the "aliens". Everything else is mostly historical fiction set in ancient times, or maybe some time around WWII. My guess for this is because it's easier not to run the ire of the CCP if you're doing fictional work in a setting that happened hundreds of years ago.
> China innovates on rocket force to sink US carriers, hence ahead in hypersonics.
Are they really Chinese innovations or Chinese retrofitted Russian designs? I don't know enough about modern Chinese rockets, so I'm actually asking a question, because historically most Chinese military equipment are variants of Russian models.
> It matters because before nuclear war is conventional war. Conventional capability require to solve border disputes, become regional hegemon of a bunch of middle powers without nukes.
India also has ballistic nuclear weapons, and so does Japan... It's good to know that China's leaders have the same logic as US leadership. For the US, imo our defense budget is a mainly a cover for massive corruption.
> CCDI investigated/punished over 1M+ party officials, even Xi doesn't have that many enemies. But of course there was element of power consolidation, and completely justified in retrospect now that CIA confirmed (just this month) how far they've infiltrated CCP under Hu.
Chinese politics have varying factions which are made up of many members. It's not like anti-corruption drives are a new tactic to remove your rivals in China. I mean you even admit it.
This is not an emotional discussion for me, but I feel that it is for you. If I'm right on this, I'm not looking to insult you, and if continuing this discussion is going to make you angry; I'd rather end it now because it's not going to change anyone's views.
You're asking for evidence, yet you're not providing any either. You're partially right though. With China's gradual opening, there have been more mainland Chinese entering higher tiers in various disciplines. Still, that's not to say that China's creativity isn't crippled by its government. Personally, I feel it's a drop compared to what could be with a more democratic government. Also everything that we've seen so far is due to China opening up and decentralizing. I predict the opposite will happen in the future as Xi reverses the trend. Yes, it's conjecture, and I hope I'm wrong.
> Chinese entertainment is great if you don't care about politics.
This is just personal taste but imo it's terrible. The only works that have freedom are nationalistic in nature like the Three Body Problem, where it's easy to see what it really is once you substitute the West for the "aliens". Everything else is mostly historical fiction set in ancient times, or maybe some time around WWII. My guess for this is because it's easier not to run the ire of the CCP if you're doing fictional work in a setting that happened hundreds of years ago.
> China innovates on rocket force to sink US carriers, hence ahead in hypersonics.
Are they really Chinese innovations or Chinese retrofitted Russian designs? I don't know enough about modern Chinese rockets, so I'm actually asking a question, because historically most Chinese military equipment are variants of Russian models.
> It matters because before nuclear war is conventional war. Conventional capability require to solve border disputes, become regional hegemon of a bunch of middle powers without nukes.
India also has ballistic nuclear weapons, and so does Japan... It's good to know that China's leaders have the same logic as US leadership. For the US, imo our defense budget is a mainly a cover for massive corruption.
> CCDI investigated/punished over 1M+ party officials, even Xi doesn't have that many enemies. But of course there was element of power consolidation, and completely justified in retrospect now that CIA confirmed (just this month) how far they've infiltrated CCP under Hu.
Chinese politics have varying factions which are made up of many members. It's not like anti-corruption drives are a new tactic to remove your rivals in China. I mean you even admit it.
This is not an emotional discussion for me, but I feel that it is for you. If I'm right on this, I'm not looking to insult you, and if continuing this discussion is going to make you angry; I'd rather end it now because it's not going to change anyone's views.
Not emotional, writing style lazy/kurt on mobile.
>personal taste / it's a drop compared / evidence
Mainstream TV/film is trash because of censorship. Ditto with Chinese journalism under Xi, lots of talent left. Point is censorship constraints industries, but not the entire creative talent pool. Rote Chinese education system + current level of censorship is not strong enough to blunt creative outflow in a nation with as much human capita as China, output not a drop but also not close to full potential. There's probably negative per capita affects, but it hasn't stopped China from climbing ranking polls in science, innovation indexes (the evidence) etc, and in terms of strategic global competition that's enough. It will hit future Chinese cultural export and soft power, but I don't see east asian culture substantively competing with Hollywood/US culture, who is simply too strong. Consequence of inertia of being wealthy superpower that can brain drain/poach talent from entire world. It's not just because of democracy, otherwise we'd all be into Norwegian media and Swedish Gripen would be the best fighter in the world.
>Chinese hypersonics
DF missiles started as Soviet R2 & R5 copies designs in 60s. Developments after have been indigenous efforts, there's been many iterations. Chinese hypersonics are ahead of Russian designs. Like Huawei indigenous 5G innovations after copying western vendors. Familiar copy, iternate, innovate pattern. People are still fixated on the copy part when much of Chinese hardware is at iterate or innovate phase.
>defense budget cover for massive corruption
US MIC is big drain. Entrenched interests, pork barrel waste tied to political process etc. But at least enough inertia that US military is largely unrivalled. PLA very corrupt and useless before Xi, less so now. This is evident because Chinese military under Xi reforms is an actual acquisition powerhouse while capabilities are constantly improving (from huge deficit gap), and Chinese military expenditure is ~2% of GDP, aka appropriate NATO commitment. Chinese military is not that exceptional relative to GDP and population. Of course things stretch further in China due to PPP but there hasn't been massive waste. That's why neighbours are shitting bricks, China spending modest amount on military efficiently has disproportionate effect on regional power balance. But the alternative is not modernizing with modest budget, which is an unrealistic expectation. Of course the real issue is there's a bunch of disputes to resolve. Also Japan has no nuclear weapons.
>anti-corruption drives
There is nothing wrong with anti-corruption drives nor political consolidation if it serves purpose. Corruption + incentives is the mechanism that made rapid Chinese development possible. China is the only country where increased corruption correlated with increased growth. Corruption is good. Until it's not. And by Xi, the corrosive effects of corruption outweighed its use as development instrument. So corruption was reigned in because it reached level that destabilized social order and undermined the political system (CIA infiltration). So not just Xi's enemies but literal enemies of the state.
Last point on Xi and I'm disengaging because too much screetime. Leaked US intelligence of Xi, roughly "not very smart, but incorruptible, except maybe by power". Not very smart feels true, but it's hard to argue his policies have largely delivered in areas that matter. Morally incorruptible seems true, Xi believes in socialism a little to hard, which ties back to the not very smart part. Corrupt by power also rings true. These are all terrible qualities, but somehow he's making it work. I say this begrudingly because anti-corruption drive killed the gift-giving industry that some family made livelihood in. Anyway, it's working until it doesn't since he'll be around for a while. But the alternative would have been BoXiLai and US carriers still sailing through Taiwan strait. There was a very small window while US was distracted by ME where China could make gains in the region, but Xi seems to have pulled it off. Doesn't mean things can't be better domestically (i.e. XJ shitshow) but short medium term Xi has priorities right. When people say Xi is causing China to regress, they are typically not cognizant of all the essential things he did for progress, and that the alternative to him would have been much worse, at least for Chinese interests. This is not a position I thought I could hold a couple years ago.
>personal taste / it's a drop compared / evidence
Mainstream TV/film is trash because of censorship. Ditto with Chinese journalism under Xi, lots of talent left. Point is censorship constraints industries, but not the entire creative talent pool. Rote Chinese education system + current level of censorship is not strong enough to blunt creative outflow in a nation with as much human capita as China, output not a drop but also not close to full potential. There's probably negative per capita affects, but it hasn't stopped China from climbing ranking polls in science, innovation indexes (the evidence) etc, and in terms of strategic global competition that's enough. It will hit future Chinese cultural export and soft power, but I don't see east asian culture substantively competing with Hollywood/US culture, who is simply too strong. Consequence of inertia of being wealthy superpower that can brain drain/poach talent from entire world. It's not just because of democracy, otherwise we'd all be into Norwegian media and Swedish Gripen would be the best fighter in the world.
>Chinese hypersonics
DF missiles started as Soviet R2 & R5 copies designs in 60s. Developments after have been indigenous efforts, there's been many iterations. Chinese hypersonics are ahead of Russian designs. Like Huawei indigenous 5G innovations after copying western vendors. Familiar copy, iternate, innovate pattern. People are still fixated on the copy part when much of Chinese hardware is at iterate or innovate phase.
>defense budget cover for massive corruption
US MIC is big drain. Entrenched interests, pork barrel waste tied to political process etc. But at least enough inertia that US military is largely unrivalled. PLA very corrupt and useless before Xi, less so now. This is evident because Chinese military under Xi reforms is an actual acquisition powerhouse while capabilities are constantly improving (from huge deficit gap), and Chinese military expenditure is ~2% of GDP, aka appropriate NATO commitment. Chinese military is not that exceptional relative to GDP and population. Of course things stretch further in China due to PPP but there hasn't been massive waste. That's why neighbours are shitting bricks, China spending modest amount on military efficiently has disproportionate effect on regional power balance. But the alternative is not modernizing with modest budget, which is an unrealistic expectation. Of course the real issue is there's a bunch of disputes to resolve. Also Japan has no nuclear weapons.
>anti-corruption drives
There is nothing wrong with anti-corruption drives nor political consolidation if it serves purpose. Corruption + incentives is the mechanism that made rapid Chinese development possible. China is the only country where increased corruption correlated with increased growth. Corruption is good. Until it's not. And by Xi, the corrosive effects of corruption outweighed its use as development instrument. So corruption was reigned in because it reached level that destabilized social order and undermined the political system (CIA infiltration). So not just Xi's enemies but literal enemies of the state.
Last point on Xi and I'm disengaging because too much screetime. Leaked US intelligence of Xi, roughly "not very smart, but incorruptible, except maybe by power". Not very smart feels true, but it's hard to argue his policies have largely delivered in areas that matter. Morally incorruptible seems true, Xi believes in socialism a little to hard, which ties back to the not very smart part. Corrupt by power also rings true. These are all terrible qualities, but somehow he's making it work. I say this begrudingly because anti-corruption drive killed the gift-giving industry that some family made livelihood in. Anyway, it's working until it doesn't since he'll be around for a while. But the alternative would have been BoXiLai and US carriers still sailing through Taiwan strait. There was a very small window while US was distracted by ME where China could make gains in the region, but Xi seems to have pulled it off. Doesn't mean things can't be better domestically (i.e. XJ shitshow) but short medium term Xi has priorities right. When people say Xi is causing China to regress, they are typically not cognizant of all the essential things he did for progress, and that the alternative to him would have been much worse, at least for Chinese interests. This is not a position I thought I could hold a couple years ago.
Have you seen the TV show "In the Name of the People"?
It's a fictional depiction of investigations of corrupt CCP officials. It's quite good.
China is a place full of contradictions so I would avoid analyzing it through the lens of ideology
It's a fictional depiction of investigations of corrupt CCP officials. It's quite good.
China is a place full of contradictions so I would avoid analyzing it through the lens of ideology
> South Korea's economic seemed to transform overnight, once they transitioned from a dictatorship into a democratic republic. Like it or not, the lack of free speech has an economic cost.
If you look at actual data https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locat... , you'll see that Korea has had high GDP-per-capita growth since as far back as the 1960s, with two years of shrinking: 1980 after the assassination of the dictator Park Chung-hee and 1998 after the Asian Financial Crisis, which was also the first time the ruling party let go of their power after losing a democratic election.
The economic cost of lack of free speech isn't as great as the economic cost of uncertainty (because it discourages investing). Not knowing who the next dictator will be and not knowing who will win the next election are both sources of uncertainty.
If you look at actual data https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locat... , you'll see that Korea has had high GDP-per-capita growth since as far back as the 1960s, with two years of shrinking: 1980 after the assassination of the dictator Park Chung-hee and 1998 after the Asian Financial Crisis, which was also the first time the ruling party let go of their power after losing a democratic election.
The economic cost of lack of free speech isn't as great as the economic cost of uncertainty (because it discourages investing). Not knowing who the next dictator will be and not knowing who will win the next election are both sources of uncertainty.
Another argument would be that SK wouldn't have been able to maintain their GDP-per-capita growth without switching to a democratic republic.
That might seem like a good argument if you only look at the growth rate trending down under the authoritarian regime since the 1970s, but it's actually a bad argument because that trend continued unchanged after the democratic transition.
So if democracy actually has some effect on economic performance, it's not strong enough to overcome broader trends. Which makes sense if you consider that authoritarians like making money, too, so blocking obvious productivity improvements would only be shooting themselves in the foot.
So if democracy actually has some effect on economic performance, it's not strong enough to overcome broader trends. Which makes sense if you consider that authoritarians like making money, too, so blocking obvious productivity improvements would only be shooting themselves in the foot.
Isn't Singapore more or less a democratic republic now?
Not much, no. Single party state, been in power forever, tame opposition parties allowed, ruling party never had anything less than a supermajority, individual leaders stay in power for decades, fines and jail sentences for questioning the independence of the judiciary.
Not much, no. Single party state, been in power forever, tame opposition parties allowed, ruling party never had anything less than a supermajority, individual leaders stay in power for decades, fines and jail sentences for questioning the independence of the judiciary.
>> Japan and Korea have collectivist cultures and made that leap in the past 50 years.
> Japan and South Korea are both democratic republics.
I think we should be crisp on the difference between government systems and culture. East asian culture tends to be very collectivist regardless of the government system. When you originally said "collectivist culture" I assumed you were referring to this culture (tallest hammer gets nailed down, route memorization learning, respect for seniority over ability, etc).
But if you were referring to the political system then that's true now, though this might be putting the cart before the horse. SK, Taiwan, and even Japan all got a lot of economic development done under authoritarian regimes (even if they were democracy in name). Only once economic development came did they transition. Ironically the growth slowed after that so if you think political system is a causal factor of economic growth, it might appear at first glance that democracy is bad for economic growth.
> Isn't Singapore more or less a democratic republic now?
Haha, well, maybe formally. As others have pointed out Singapore has practically single-party-rule. By some accounts, China owes much of its modern success to copying Singapore's flavor of state capitalism. Deng Xiaoping visited Lee Kwan Yew in 1978 and that set the course for China to pivot away from communism to state capitalism. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/lee-kuan-yew-lauded-for-cr...
> Before Xi, China was slowly moving in the right direction for global dominance. China under Xi is moving backwards.
I agree with that statement, though time will tell.
----
To sum up this discussion:
1. if it's ultimately a question of whether democracy is a necessary condition of economic growth or even creativity, I would say no. Plenty of good science was done in Germany in the 40s or the Soviet Union, and economic growth in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan under military dictatorships.
2. Would more creative work have been done with more freedom? Hard to prove or disprove but I intuitively would lean towards yes, especially for disruptive innovation (the kind that the folks in charge wouldn't like or be able to see). I think we agree here.
3. Is democracy a sufficient to create economic growth? I would say no, looking at some of the other non-western democracies out there, or democracies which failed.
I think we should be crisp on the difference between government systems and culture. East asian culture tends to be very collectivist regardless of the government system. When you originally said "collectivist culture" I assumed you were referring to this culture (tallest hammer gets nailed down, route memorization learning, respect for seniority over ability, etc).
But if you were referring to the political system then that's true now, though this might be putting the cart before the horse. SK, Taiwan, and even Japan all got a lot of economic development done under authoritarian regimes (even if they were democracy in name). Only once economic development came did they transition. Ironically the growth slowed after that so if you think political system is a causal factor of economic growth, it might appear at first glance that democracy is bad for economic growth.
> Isn't Singapore more or less a democratic republic now?
Haha, well, maybe formally. As others have pointed out Singapore has practically single-party-rule. By some accounts, China owes much of its modern success to copying Singapore's flavor of state capitalism. Deng Xiaoping visited Lee Kwan Yew in 1978 and that set the course for China to pivot away from communism to state capitalism. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/lee-kuan-yew-lauded-for-cr...
> Before Xi, China was slowly moving in the right direction for global dominance. China under Xi is moving backwards.
I agree with that statement, though time will tell.
----
To sum up this discussion:
1. if it's ultimately a question of whether democracy is a necessary condition of economic growth or even creativity, I would say no. Plenty of good science was done in Germany in the 40s or the Soviet Union, and economic growth in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan under military dictatorships.
2. Would more creative work have been done with more freedom? Hard to prove or disprove but I intuitively would lean towards yes, especially for disruptive innovation (the kind that the folks in charge wouldn't like or be able to see). I think we agree here.
3. Is democracy a sufficient to create economic growth? I would say no, looking at some of the other non-western democracies out there, or democracies which failed.
The advantage of democracy is the ability to correct serious leadership mistakes. China lost decades of growth to Maoism (and obviously a lot more besides), and there wasn’t much they could do beyond waiting for Mao to die. Democratic systems are designed to prevent that.
However: this does not mean that every non-democratic leader is going to make mistakes, and certainly not at all phases of their leadership career. (Mistakes are, however, more probable than not over the long term in the typical authoritarian society. It’s noteworthy that we mostly point to Singapore as the sole counterexample of an economically successful authoritarian regime that didn’t revert to democracy or suffer decades of needless economic self-harm.)
However: this does not mean that every non-democratic leader is going to make mistakes, and certainly not at all phases of their leadership career. (Mistakes are, however, more probable than not over the long term in the typical authoritarian society. It’s noteworthy that we mostly point to Singapore as the sole counterexample of an economically successful authoritarian regime that didn’t revert to democracy or suffer decades of needless economic self-harm.)
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This is such a common practice even today.
Many would be shocked to know that big name brands reverse engineer car brands that perhaps cost a fraction of their own because there is lot to learn. And the risk of competition is very high.
Many would be shocked to know that big name brands reverse engineer car brands that perhaps cost a fraction of their own because there is lot to learn. And the risk of competition is very high.
This is normal. Everyone learns by copying. Look at this as at completing a tutorial.
What's interesting is the possible next steps building upon the experience gained.
What's interesting is the possible next steps building upon the experience gained.
The big question is can they since Xi has come to power? imo Xi is regressing China back to Mao style centralization. Centralization has big costs such as severely stunting creativity.
Here's the chance for the US manufacturing to catch up!
Myth. US manufacturing never went away, US manufacturing JOBS went away. Automation.
It’s easier to sell the fear of some foreign boogeyman, by claiming that foreigners took your jobs away. As opposed to robots that made your job obsolete.
Hey! Vote for me! I’ll bring those jobs back home!
Sound familiar?
Hey! Vote for me! I’ll bring those jobs back home!
Sound familiar?
I buy numerous electronic devices, from laptops down to simple PWM dimmers. Very few of them are not made in China, even fewer proudly made in the US.
I would gladly pay 25% more for devices made on US soil by US robots, but so far the supply of such is pretty limited at best.
I would gladly pay 25% more for devices made on US soil by US robots, but so far the supply of such is pretty limited at best.
This is the kind of stuff people post who get their information about China exclusively from American think tanks. I've worked in China and been in the country multiple times over the last few years.
In Mao's times you had to carry the little red book in your pocket, were put into a factory or lined up against the wall. Today foreigners can go to the country, start a business and you can work where you want. Over the last five years in particular the situation for businesses has gotten better because the courts actually have started to function and address stuff like IP claims. Still slow for foreign business in particular, but if you think modern China, one of the world's most integrated economies, is comparable to the Mao era I truly don't know what to tell you.
China is also, ironically enough, probably one of the most fiscally decentralized economies on the planet. If you look at the degree of economic autonomy regions have, you won't find it really anywhere else.
In Mao's times you had to carry the little red book in your pocket, were put into a factory or lined up against the wall. Today foreigners can go to the country, start a business and you can work where you want. Over the last five years in particular the situation for businesses has gotten better because the courts actually have started to function and address stuff like IP claims. Still slow for foreign business in particular, but if you think modern China, one of the world's most integrated economies, is comparable to the Mao era I truly don't know what to tell you.
China is also, ironically enough, probably one of the most fiscally decentralized economies on the planet. If you look at the degree of economic autonomy regions have, you won't find it really anywhere else.
> This is the kind of stuff people post who get their information about China exclusively from American think tanks. I've worked in China and been in the country multiple times over the last few years.
I'm Chinese. I still have family there.
> In Mao's times you had to carry the little red book in your pocket, were put into a factory or lined up against the wall.
This is funny because Xi is emulating Mao. Instead of a red book, Xi has a yellow book.
> Today foreigners can go to the country, start a business and you can work where you want. Over the last five years in particular the situation for businesses has gotten better because the courts actually have started to function and address stuff like IP claims. Still slow for foreign business in particular, but if you think modern China, one of the world's most integrated economies, is comparable to the Mao era I truly don't know what to tell you.
If you know enough about history, the credit for opening up China to the West goes to Deng Xiaoping and not Xi. Also you're talking past tense. In the present, foreigners are being squeezed out.
> China is also, ironically enough, probably one of the most fiscally decentralized economies on the planet. If you look at the degree of economic autonomy regions have, you won't find it really anywhere else.
I'm not sure what you're reading, but a good percentage of companies are either state sponsored or state owned. Still, you weren't completely off. Continued decentralization of the economy was the trend before Xi, but Xi is reversing it now. I'm speaking of the near future and not the past.
What you've written was largely true a few years ago but not so much now or the near future.
I'm Chinese. I still have family there.
> In Mao's times you had to carry the little red book in your pocket, were put into a factory or lined up against the wall.
This is funny because Xi is emulating Mao. Instead of a red book, Xi has a yellow book.
> Today foreigners can go to the country, start a business and you can work where you want. Over the last five years in particular the situation for businesses has gotten better because the courts actually have started to function and address stuff like IP claims. Still slow for foreign business in particular, but if you think modern China, one of the world's most integrated economies, is comparable to the Mao era I truly don't know what to tell you.
If you know enough about history, the credit for opening up China to the West goes to Deng Xiaoping and not Xi. Also you're talking past tense. In the present, foreigners are being squeezed out.
> China is also, ironically enough, probably one of the most fiscally decentralized economies on the planet. If you look at the degree of economic autonomy regions have, you won't find it really anywhere else.
I'm not sure what you're reading, but a good percentage of companies are either state sponsored or state owned. Still, you weren't completely off. Continued decentralization of the economy was the trend before Xi, but Xi is reversing it now. I'm speaking of the near future and not the past.
What you've written was largely true a few years ago but not so much now or the near future.
I don't really see any evidence for the fact that foreigners are being squeezed out of China. FDI in China is actually up, even American investment in China.[1] under the current administration no less. Number of foreign students in China has steadily risen, and only slowed somewhat down but it's still the fifth most popular country for foreign students[2]. I personally plan to return in the next few years in all likelihood. (I don't have family in the country, and I'm not Chinese for what it's worth, and I rarely had problems).
I see absolutely no evidence in the numbers, or personal experience, but only in narrative that China has become a worse place for foreigners. Business climate is way better than it was mostly due to rule of law improvements. I have no idea to what extent the corruption reforms purged antagonistic party members or whatever, but it wasn't just a stunt, it actually did help private businesses.
I also find the elevation of Deng over Xi odd, given that Deng all his economic reforms aside, also used to roll tanks over students. The current administration doesn't even seem close to go back to the old methods.
[1]https://www.statista.com/statistics/188629/united-states-dir...
[2]https://monitor.icef.com/2019/04/chinas-foreign-enrolment-gr...
I see absolutely no evidence in the numbers, or personal experience, but only in narrative that China has become a worse place for foreigners. Business climate is way better than it was mostly due to rule of law improvements. I have no idea to what extent the corruption reforms purged antagonistic party members or whatever, but it wasn't just a stunt, it actually did help private businesses.
I also find the elevation of Deng over Xi odd, given that Deng all his economic reforms aside, also used to roll tanks over students. The current administration doesn't even seem close to go back to the old methods.
[1]https://www.statista.com/statistics/188629/united-states-dir...
[2]https://monitor.icef.com/2019/04/chinas-foreign-enrolment-gr...
> I don't really see any evidence for the fact that foreigners are being squeezed out of China.
You're not exactly providing good evidence to prove your point either e.g. your article about being 5th most popular destination for students talks about the trend slowing down.
The trend I'm speaking of started about right when Xi assumed power.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wb3Z3w...
> FDI in China is actually up, even American investment in China.
Money from far away, foreign investors are always welcome in almost every country. China is no different. I'm talking about expats who were more permanent than temporary, foreign exchange students.
China still has a xenophobic culture. Has it gotten better? Sure it has, but it
> I also find the elevation of Deng over Xi odd, given that Deng all his economic reforms aside, also used to roll tanks over students.
There's no denying that what Deng did was unthinkable and largely due to paranoia, but that doesn't change the fact that it was he who opened up China and created its current economic machine. Xi has come after that fact. I'm not even sure how what he did is relevant to our discussion since I'm pretty sure Xi supported it.
I have to ask. How long do you stay in China when you visit? Are you fluent? If you're not, you're missing a lot of context.
You're not exactly providing good evidence to prove your point either e.g. your article about being 5th most popular destination for students talks about the trend slowing down.
The trend I'm speaking of started about right when Xi assumed power.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wb3Z3w...
> FDI in China is actually up, even American investment in China.
Money from far away, foreign investors are always welcome in almost every country. China is no different. I'm talking about expats who were more permanent than temporary, foreign exchange students.
China still has a xenophobic culture. Has it gotten better? Sure it has, but it
> I also find the elevation of Deng over Xi odd, given that Deng all his economic reforms aside, also used to roll tanks over students.
There's no denying that what Deng did was unthinkable and largely due to paranoia, but that doesn't change the fact that it was he who opened up China and created its current economic machine. Xi has come after that fact. I'm not even sure how what he did is relevant to our discussion since I'm pretty sure Xi supported it.
I have to ask. How long do you stay in China when you visit? Are you fluent? If you're not, you're missing a lot of context.
>I have to ask. How long do you stay in China when you visit?
I've stayed usually for two to three months per year. I've been in Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Guangzhou mostly around tech folks. It's getting better but I'm not fluent, I can get around. So sure obviously I follow the politics it's of interest to me but mostly I've gotten my impression from work, talking to people and just living there.
And while the atmosphere is tenser maybe, there's more nationalistic tones in particular from very young people and it didn't feel as geopolitical say 8 years ago as it did 2 years ago, it doesn't seem like a fundamentally different place. I can't speak to every machination of the party but I don't think China is going to withdraw from the world, or not let foreigners in or anything like that. People from the very bottom to the top seem to know there's no way back to Mao's days, I don't think more political centralization is going to change that.
There's so much bad press these days you think China is the next Soviet Union, but it's hard to square with lived reality for me which is why responded quite strongly to the original post, there's just so many of them, I don't think it does the diversity in the country justice.
I've stayed usually for two to three months per year. I've been in Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Guangzhou mostly around tech folks. It's getting better but I'm not fluent, I can get around. So sure obviously I follow the politics it's of interest to me but mostly I've gotten my impression from work, talking to people and just living there.
And while the atmosphere is tenser maybe, there's more nationalistic tones in particular from very young people and it didn't feel as geopolitical say 8 years ago as it did 2 years ago, it doesn't seem like a fundamentally different place. I can't speak to every machination of the party but I don't think China is going to withdraw from the world, or not let foreigners in or anything like that. People from the very bottom to the top seem to know there's no way back to Mao's days, I don't think more political centralization is going to change that.
There's so much bad press these days you think China is the next Soviet Union, but it's hard to square with lived reality for me which is why responded quite strongly to the original post, there's just so many of them, I don't think it does the diversity in the country justice.
Especially if that void can be filled with extremely cheap research, namely wholesale theft by the Chinese government.
The FA is simply announcing that an airline has started service with some ARJ21's, nothing to do with C919. The ARJ21 has been in use in other airlines since 2016.
I'm certain that China would have done something like these jets regardless of whether other manufacturers had declined, or if they helped, or whatever. Just as the Soviets/Russians have been making jets and just as in that case it said nothing about Boeing or Airbus.
I'm certain that China would have done something like these jets regardless of whether other manufacturers had declined, or if they helped, or whatever. Just as the Soviets/Russians have been making jets and just as in that case it said nothing about Boeing or Airbus.
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I don't get why this is news.. the ARJ21 has been flying commercially in China since 2016. So another airline bought some and started flying it... and?
Anyway, China still can't make the complex parts, like engines, which I believe it sources from Russia.
Anyway, China still can't make the complex parts, like engines, which I believe it sources from Russia.
They are making their own engines now.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_C...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_C...
Copies of 50/60's engines from France and Russia?
> Copies of 50/60's engines from France and Russia?
You have to start somewhere.
I mean, it's not like new software developers start off writing state of the art programs. They write a hello world program like everyone else, and build up from there. Same thing with spinning up industrial capacity in a new area.
Also, IIRC, a lot of the tricky high tech in jet engine production isn't so much in the engines themselves, but in the manufacturing process of the components and materials. That means reverse engineering will only get you so far.
You have to start somewhere.
I mean, it's not like new software developers start off writing state of the art programs. They write a hello world program like everyone else, and build up from there. Same thing with spinning up industrial capacity in a new area.
Also, IIRC, a lot of the tricky high tech in jet engine production isn't so much in the engines themselves, but in the manufacturing process of the components and materials. That means reverse engineering will only get you so far.
Yeah exactly metallurgy is really hard. There's not really a software equivalence except maybe some magic algorithm could possibly fit but it's a stretch.
As a seemingly simple example it was only a few years ago that china got good enough at metals to make good pen tips: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18...
Edit: metallurgy
As a seemingly simple example it was only a few years ago that china got good enough at metals to make good pen tips: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18...
Edit: metallurgy
>a few years ago that china got good enough at metals to make good pen tips:
IMO this anecdote has been severely misinterpreted by western media. The narrative seems to be lol China only learned to make ball point pen recently, when really it was Premier LiKeQiang politicized importance of precision manufacturing for national security, and 2 years later Chinese industry developed tungsten carbide manufacturing capabilities for advanced munitions. There was no economically sensible reason for domestic ballpoint manufacturing, the entire market dominated by Japan and Swiss was only worth 20M. Zero rationale for Chinese industry to coordinate tons of resources for this project outside of national security. The TLDR should be China is scarily efficient at pursing national security goals.
That said metallurgy for engines is hard. My impressions from following Chinese aviation and semiconductor development is that engines are harder. At least on the military front there has been a lot of movement in domestic turbofans this year, they're sufficiently performant, and exceeds in some categories that it looks like they will be replacing Russian engines going forward.
IMO this anecdote has been severely misinterpreted by western media. The narrative seems to be lol China only learned to make ball point pen recently, when really it was Premier LiKeQiang politicized importance of precision manufacturing for national security, and 2 years later Chinese industry developed tungsten carbide manufacturing capabilities for advanced munitions. There was no economically sensible reason for domestic ballpoint manufacturing, the entire market dominated by Japan and Swiss was only worth 20M. Zero rationale for Chinese industry to coordinate tons of resources for this project outside of national security. The TLDR should be China is scarily efficient at pursing national security goals.
That said metallurgy for engines is hard. My impressions from following Chinese aviation and semiconductor development is that engines are harder. At least on the military front there has been a lot of movement in domestic turbofans this year, they're sufficiently performant, and exceeds in some categories that it looks like they will be replacing Russian engines going forward.
> Yeah exactly metrology is really hard.
I'm a little confused. Do you mean metallurgy?
I'm a little confused. Do you mean metallurgy?
Metrology is the science of measurement. In context, it means machining very, very precise parts with super-tight tolerances.
I just used the wrong word. It was a typo and I fixed it.
Yes I'll edit my comment.
And maintenance. The biggest differentiator between American and Russian aircraft is that the American aircraft were better maintained. The Russian aircraft were likely more reliable for their given level of maintenance... but they were very, very poorly maintained.
No, right until the fall of USSR, Aeroflot fleets were properly maintained.
American aviation had technological advantage at any point in history.
American aviation had technological advantage at any point in history.
I would suspect that materials science is underfunded in the West as is any endeavor that takes long investment for long term payoff. China and Japan have been extremely good at patient long-view investment.
Their latest copies are of the CFM56, which is 70s/80s. The CJ-1000A is a mix of the CFM56 and the CFM LEAP, so if it works it will bring them to 2000s' level of engine tech.
Well, they still didn't manage to replicate the AL-31 despite massive leaks of documentation _and_ it being a late-70-s design.
What makes you think they would fare better with the CFM56 which is of the same vintage?
There was much boasting for the last ten years, but nothing actually serviceable.
What makes you think they would fare better with the CFM56 which is of the same vintage?
There was much boasting for the last ten years, but nothing actually serviceable.
The AL-31 was first put into service in 1981, and of course that isn't the same version that is being built under licence (not stolen - they bought the rights to it).
That being said, the WS-10 is thought to now be operational, and has been fitted on operational airplanes successfully for almost a decade. So that fits perfectly with them being at 70s/80s level of tech for established, used engines.
That being said, the WS-10 is thought to now be operational, and has been fitted on operational airplanes successfully for almost a decade. So that fits perfectly with them being at 70s/80s level of tech for established, used engines.
> and has been fitted on operational airplanes successfully for almost a decade
Sort of hard to believe this given the Chinese were buying AL-31FNs by the thousands since early 2010s.
As it is, I think they hit the metallurgical problems with the hot part from the get go and are struggling with them ever since.
Given that the hot part (final compressor stages, combustion and the turbines) aren't that dissimilar from the cores of commercial turbofans I'm inclined to think it's all hot air as is was for the last 10-20 years.
Sure they can assemble some CFM56 derivatives around imported cores and that's it.
Sort of hard to believe this given the Chinese were buying AL-31FNs by the thousands since early 2010s.
As it is, I think they hit the metallurgical problems with the hot part from the get go and are struggling with them ever since.
Given that the hot part (final compressor stages, combustion and the turbines) aren't that dissimilar from the cores of commercial turbofans I'm inclined to think it's all hot air as is was for the last 10-20 years.
Sure they can assemble some CFM56 derivatives around imported cores and that's it.
New batch J10s have switched to indigenous WS-10B, the AL31 replacement, early this year. WS-10s was being used on twin engine J16s and J11 years before that.
So just like the majority of private US aviation then. Nothing says progress like manufacturing "new" Cessna and Robinson aircrafts in 2020 using unchanged designs from the fifties.
[deleted]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_Engine_Corporation_of_Chi...
The United States Department of Defense believes the AECC is linked to the People's Liberation Army.[5] In November 2020, Donald Trump issued an executive order prohibiting any American company or individual from owning shares in companies that the United States Department of Defense has listed as having links to the People's Liberation Army, which included Aero Engine Corporation of China.[6][7][8]
Err... LOL? And the the US MIC isn't? Their TLAs aren't using espionage to outbid competitors?
/me giggles...
The United States Department of Defense believes the AECC is linked to the People's Liberation Army.[5] In November 2020, Donald Trump issued an executive order prohibiting any American company or individual from owning shares in companies that the United States Department of Defense has listed as having links to the People's Liberation Army, which included Aero Engine Corporation of China.[6][7][8]
Err... LOL? And the the US MIC isn't? Their TLAs aren't using espionage to outbid competitors?
/me giggles...
It won’t take them long to develop that capability. So far there hasn’t been anything they can’t do.
If I understand correctly the news is about their new plane the C919.
Chances are China might still not be able to make complex engine in the next 20 years with focuses on AI and decline of manufacturing. IT/Engineers positions earns 5x more and there are lots more positions than mechanic engineer
China has over a billion people in rapidly improving material conditions. I suspect they will be able to make a complex engine in 20 years.
I hope USA leadership realizes manufacturing and supply chain independence outside military needs is as important as food and energy independence.
If you don't make stuff, you eventually lose the ecosystem and knowledge.
Can't simply coast on the dollar forever.
If you don't make stuff, you eventually lose the ecosystem and knowledge.
Can't simply coast on the dollar forever.
I think that was made obvious in the early days of the pandemic when we realized we depended on China for basic PPE equipment, and I hope that lesson is not forgotten.
I'm not too worried about that in the aviation sphere though. The US & Europe are very dominant in that space, with Boeing & Airbus owning a combined 91% of the global market share in airliners.
I'm not too worried about that in the aviation sphere though. The US & Europe are very dominant in that space, with Boeing & Airbus owning a combined 91% of the global market share in airliners.
>Boeing & Airbus owning a combined 91% of the global market share in airliners
I would be careful here since this is true today, and maybe for a decade or two, but not for long. China seems to be laser focused on improving their domestic capabilities and moving up the value chain. They already have Africa in their hands as a major export market.
I would be careful here since this is true today, and maybe for a decade or two, but not for long. China seems to be laser focused on improving their domestic capabilities and moving up the value chain. They already have Africa in their hands as a major export market.
Airplanes are a notoriously hard industry though. Particularly making the high-tech, fuel efficient ones that are the things airlines actually want, at a unit cost that is not very expensive.
Airbus A350 program cost was €11 billion. Boeing 787 Dreamliner was $32 billion. Bombardier threw in the towel this year and Embraer almost sold to Boeing. Russia has tried to build an airliner for export and failed. So has Japan. You can throw a lot of money at the problem and still never come out on top. And even for the big two times are tough; the 787 program needs 1300-2000 planes to sell to break even. Depending on how you do the accounting Airbus A380 never broke even.
Which leads to the other problem; product market fit. Airlines are notoriously fickle and it's hard to figure out market fit, particularly if a requesting airline changes its mind after reviewing their strategy or the aircraft's characteristics once in production. McDonnell Douglass had to merge with Boeing because the MD-11 was not performing as expected and then nobody wanted to buy it. Lockheed exited the civil aviation business because it nearly bankrupted them after they couldn't build a plane to the promised spec. Convair stopped making entire planes after the failure of their 880 and 990 because it turns out "slightly faster but smaller" wasn't a real market niche. Everyone got cold feet around Concorde and the various SSTs. And even Airbus almost folded; its first aircraft did not sell anything between December 1975 and May 1977.
Airbus A350 program cost was €11 billion. Boeing 787 Dreamliner was $32 billion. Bombardier threw in the towel this year and Embraer almost sold to Boeing. Russia has tried to build an airliner for export and failed. So has Japan. You can throw a lot of money at the problem and still never come out on top. And even for the big two times are tough; the 787 program needs 1300-2000 planes to sell to break even. Depending on how you do the accounting Airbus A380 never broke even.
Which leads to the other problem; product market fit. Airlines are notoriously fickle and it's hard to figure out market fit, particularly if a requesting airline changes its mind after reviewing their strategy or the aircraft's characteristics once in production. McDonnell Douglass had to merge with Boeing because the MD-11 was not performing as expected and then nobody wanted to buy it. Lockheed exited the civil aviation business because it nearly bankrupted them after they couldn't build a plane to the promised spec. Convair stopped making entire planes after the failure of their 880 and 990 because it turns out "slightly faster but smaller" wasn't a real market niche. Everyone got cold feet around Concorde and the various SSTs. And even Airbus almost folded; its first aircraft did not sell anything between December 1975 and May 1977.
> I'm not too worried about that in the aviation sphere though. The US & Europe are very dominant in that space, with Boeing & Airbus owning a combined 91% of the global market share in airliners
Famous last words. Im sure Westinghouse, Philco, RCA and Zenith said the same thing about world TV market in the sixties.
Frontline: Coming From Japan [The Fall Of The US Television Industry] (1992) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aesJTsZqm6c
"September 30, 1990. HOW DID Japan destroy the American television industry? The secret history of that strategy reveals how Japanese manufacturers and the Japanese government first created an anti-competitive cartel ..." https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:iVdEh3...
Direct assault on the entire American electronics industry as a form of revenge for ww2.
and the late limp dick non responses leading to total collapse of whole sector https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1987-04-23-870131...
Japan even had foreign currency quota and ownership limits just like China does today. "MITI'S SUCCESSES AND FAILURES IN CONTROLLING JAPAN'S TECHNOLOGY IMPORTS" https://www.jstor.org/stable/43294946
Famous last words. Im sure Westinghouse, Philco, RCA and Zenith said the same thing about world TV market in the sixties.
Frontline: Coming From Japan [The Fall Of The US Television Industry] (1992) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aesJTsZqm6c
"September 30, 1990. HOW DID Japan destroy the American television industry? The secret history of that strategy reveals how Japanese manufacturers and the Japanese government first created an anti-competitive cartel ..." https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:iVdEh3...
Direct assault on the entire American electronics industry as a form of revenge for ww2.
and the late limp dick non responses leading to total collapse of whole sector https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1987-04-23-870131...
Japan even had foreign currency quota and ownership limits just like China does today. "MITI'S SUCCESSES AND FAILURES IN CONTROLLING JAPAN'S TECHNOLOGY IMPORTS" https://www.jstor.org/stable/43294946
> Production of both the ARJ21 and C919 have relied on foreign suppliers for parts to build the braking system, engines and hydraulic pressure components. Chinese manufacturers have been able to make the less essential components, according to industry observers, but they are seen as likely to require more maintenance and incur additional costs.
How long before China also challenged the turbine and avionics market? They aren’t there yet but I feel like they have the economic capability to get there.
How long before China also challenged the turbine and avionics market? They aren’t there yet but I feel like they have the economic capability to get there.
>> Production of both the ARJ21 and C919 have relied on foreign suppliers for parts to build the braking system, engines and hydraulic pressure components. Chinese manufacturers have been able to make the less essential components, according to industry observers, but they are seen as likely to require more maintenance and incur additional costs.
> How long before China also challenged the turbine and avionics market? They aren’t there yet but I feel like they have the economic capability to get there.
I don't know, but I think they'll get there sooner rather than later.
IMHO, China's "more advanced" economic competitors have established a pattern of self-assuredly resting on their laurels in some area (and focusing too much on ideological purity re: economic theory) until their leading positions have been undermined and they lose.
> How long before China also challenged the turbine and avionics market? They aren’t there yet but I feel like they have the economic capability to get there.
I don't know, but I think they'll get there sooner rather than later.
IMHO, China's "more advanced" economic competitors have established a pattern of self-assuredly resting on their laurels in some area (and focusing too much on ideological purity re: economic theory) until their leading positions have been undermined and they lose.
>> focusing too much on ideological purity re: economics
I hate how people take Economic theories as some irrefutable fact even though they're all proven wrong in the real world. I mean look at any economic study or forecasting from any of the major firms and the one thing that they're consistent on is being wrong.
I swear Economists are just like modern day shamans/seers, filling the role that was once held by court wizards. While modern economists may not cut the heads off chickens or consult the stars they do have bogus "models" and secretive proprietary forecasting tools they use to fool idiots into thinking they have special insights. And this is very dangerous too since Economists tend to be very dogmatic, stubborn and seem to double down even when their theories fail, it's like a religion, and they refuse to ever admit their world view is wrong.
I hate how people take Economic theories as some irrefutable fact even though they're all proven wrong in the real world. I mean look at any economic study or forecasting from any of the major firms and the one thing that they're consistent on is being wrong.
I swear Economists are just like modern day shamans/seers, filling the role that was once held by court wizards. While modern economists may not cut the heads off chickens or consult the stars they do have bogus "models" and secretive proprietary forecasting tools they use to fool idiots into thinking they have special insights. And this is very dangerous too since Economists tend to be very dogmatic, stubborn and seem to double down even when their theories fail, it's like a religion, and they refuse to ever admit their world view is wrong.
> it's like a religion
The parallels run pretty deep. Smith's "invisible hand" most likely referred to the hand of God, but I guess these days blind faith in that concept somehow qualifies as secular and scientific.
The parallels run pretty deep. Smith's "invisible hand" most likely referred to the hand of God, but I guess these days blind faith in that concept somehow qualifies as secular and scientific.
Okay, I have to throw out my naive theory here: I believe economy is actually function as religion for governing a modern society. Religion has been keeping society work, stay stable, and find purpose for citizens in history; modern economy does exactly the same, it meets our needs for fulfillment, lead people to behave in certain manner, and keep countries stable. They are vital for our society. You can tell when economy is good, everything is rosy, and people are nice, there was no polarization. It ignites our greed and then fulfils it, we feel happy and willing to follow its lead.
Also, their bogus computer “models”, were generated in Microsoft Excel.
And once in a while, they go: Oops, my computer made a mistake.
And once in a while, they go: Oops, my computer made a mistake.
[deleted]
That's what's supposed to happen though right?
People start making products. They get better and better at it. They move up the value chain. Etc. That's market capitalism.
China is only doing it as fast as they are because we take ill advised actions like declaring, "We won't give you X anymore." As if that will stop a nation like China from figuring out how to manufacture the X's they need to make Y's. Naturally, they start successfully manufacturing X's a lot sooner than experts expect because they have greedy businessmen who want to continue making money selling Y's.
People start making products. They get better and better at it. They move up the value chain. Etc. That's market capitalism.
China is only doing it as fast as they are because we take ill advised actions like declaring, "We won't give you X anymore." As if that will stop a nation like China from figuring out how to manufacture the X's they need to make Y's. Naturally, they start successfully manufacturing X's a lot sooner than experts expect because they have greedy businessmen who want to continue making money selling Y's.
Certification will be a big issue for them. That's where the US/Europe will try to stop them.
>That's where the US/Europe will try to stop them.
I'm sure they're shaking in their boots at the thought.
I'm sure they're shaking in their boots at the thought.
For the last hundred years or so, for a country to be militarily powerful it must be able to produce four key vehicles from domestic designs: cars, planes, ships, and launch vehicles. However, it's threatening to focus this capacity on military production, so all countries with powerful militaries also happen to have massive civilian industries that produce those four as well. If you can produce these four vehicle classes you can build tanks, fighters, bombers, transport aircraft, battleships, aircraft carriers, and missiles, and ICBMs.
The civilian industries for those four classes build expertise, education programs, finance, and all the other wonderful things that create the environment for high-class military production programs. If you don't have a large domestic capacity for those four classes of vehicles, the military struggles and this sets the foreign policy posture for a country -- as the military is one of the tools of diplomacy.
It's useful to look at a counter example, Brazil -- long wanting to be a major regional power. But it has only the most minimal domestic auto, plane, ship and space industries and most of its heavy military equipment is imported. This means that if Brazil were to ever get in a protracted war with...well anybody, it can only last as long as it has inventory.
Contrast this with a NATO power, who has factories to endlessly churn out tanks, planes, ships, and missiles. And has the domestic capacity to scale up by simply taking over existing domestic infrastructure and turning a factory that makes axles for trucks into one that makes barrels for tanks. These countries also have the domestic intellectual capacity to design improvements, new generations, and seek efficiencies in later generations. They can often source most of the materials to build the materiel themselves, and can, factorio-like, crank out vehicles of all classes faster than domestic training programs can push recruits through a cursory training pipeline to drive them.
These countries will eventually win most wars against countries that do not have this industrial capacity because they can treat their equipment as expendable. Whereas Brazil can't engage in actions that deplete its inventory.
The Chinese government understands this, and has all of the foundational heavy industries in place to build a war factorio, but not yet the expertise. It has raw materials, smelters, metallurgy, chemists, on up the value chain. But it still struggles quality at volume needed to build domestic engines, avionics, sonar, etc. It has a large and capable electronics industry, but is behind state-of-the-art in semiconductors (but catching up). It has a fully capable and high-end software industry, including state-of-the-art work in AI/ML.
This airframe, even if there's still foreign sources bits and pieces in it, is a demonstration, a feeling-out, of native domestic production capacity and understanding where it lacks capacity. I have no doubt those areas will become major national pushes (or already are) over the next 5-10 years enabling China to achieve a NATO-like capacity and no longer be a Brazil-like.
The civilian industries for those four classes build expertise, education programs, finance, and all the other wonderful things that create the environment for high-class military production programs. If you don't have a large domestic capacity for those four classes of vehicles, the military struggles and this sets the foreign policy posture for a country -- as the military is one of the tools of diplomacy.
It's useful to look at a counter example, Brazil -- long wanting to be a major regional power. But it has only the most minimal domestic auto, plane, ship and space industries and most of its heavy military equipment is imported. This means that if Brazil were to ever get in a protracted war with...well anybody, it can only last as long as it has inventory.
Contrast this with a NATO power, who has factories to endlessly churn out tanks, planes, ships, and missiles. And has the domestic capacity to scale up by simply taking over existing domestic infrastructure and turning a factory that makes axles for trucks into one that makes barrels for tanks. These countries also have the domestic intellectual capacity to design improvements, new generations, and seek efficiencies in later generations. They can often source most of the materials to build the materiel themselves, and can, factorio-like, crank out vehicles of all classes faster than domestic training programs can push recruits through a cursory training pipeline to drive them.
These countries will eventually win most wars against countries that do not have this industrial capacity because they can treat their equipment as expendable. Whereas Brazil can't engage in actions that deplete its inventory.
The Chinese government understands this, and has all of the foundational heavy industries in place to build a war factorio, but not yet the expertise. It has raw materials, smelters, metallurgy, chemists, on up the value chain. But it still struggles quality at volume needed to build domestic engines, avionics, sonar, etc. It has a large and capable electronics industry, but is behind state-of-the-art in semiconductors (but catching up). It has a fully capable and high-end software industry, including state-of-the-art work in AI/ML.
This airframe, even if there's still foreign sources bits and pieces in it, is a demonstration, a feeling-out, of native domestic production capacity and understanding where it lacks capacity. I have no doubt those areas will become major national pushes (or already are) over the next 5-10 years enabling China to achieve a NATO-like capacity and no longer be a Brazil-like.
What if in 1920 someone told you that looking back 100 (or even 200) years, you needed a strong agrarian society with a lot of service age men and horses to win wars?
Technology has changed so much since 1920 I somehow doubt it's useful to look that far back for specific strategies.
If you don't care to boss around non-nuclear states, you just need a credible mutually assured destruction scenario.
Technology has changed so much since 1920 I somehow doubt it's useful to look that far back for specific strategies.
If you don't care to boss around non-nuclear states, you just need a credible mutually assured destruction scenario.
Even if you do care to boss around non-nuclear states, coercion is most effective when it is low-cost/high-impact - cyberattacks and economic warfare fit that bill better than sending in the tanks.
Like, the reasons Brazil hasn't invaded Venezuela have little to do with its lack of a car industry.
Like, the reasons Brazil hasn't invaded Venezuela have little to do with its lack of a car industry.
Good observation, however I would point out that china is already there with military production capabilities. What china is trying to do now is enter consumer market where there is a lot of price sensitivity. That means things have to more more efficient and optimized.
Wow good write up. Also connecting it with the comment below, these are the core targets of the Trump sanctions.
Not really, as far as I know even their best plane J-20 uses Russian engines. They were planning to replace it with a domestically developed engine but I am not sure if that is done yet. The domestic engine was developed from either French or Russian family of engines, I think.
my understanding was they use russian engines because it's still more cost effective, so it's better for use in peace time for training purposes. but they do have domestic variants ready in case of actual war, where having things is more important than having things cheaply.
This kind of war is largely irrelevant for first world countries. Financial engineering is more relevant. If you prefer brute force, there are weapons that makes military that involves human largely obsolete. What you describe was relevant for WWII . The army and so on are only used in later phases when most of the defenses of the opponent are neutralized.
I am sad to read about how many people here underestimate china. What other country has lifted a BILLION people out of poverty in 30 years? What other country built the worlds biggest high speed rail network in 15 years? What other country is both the biggest producer of steel and iphones? I say this as someone who has a great admiration for western values and lifestyle. A western level university system or free press will probably not be coming there anytime soon. When it comes to building new things china is #1 by far.
For domestic use, China-built aircraft will likely be quite successful. They have competent research and engineering resources, as well as an enormous market.
A serious concern in the West will be how much the government pushes domestic built aircraft as an export product. Chinese industry and consumers can't push back on government initiatives and goals as easily as they can in the west, and corners may be cut to achieve mileposts set by powerful bureaucrats.
A serious concern in the West will be how much the government pushes domestic built aircraft as an export product. Chinese industry and consumers can't push back on government initiatives and goals as easily as they can in the west, and corners may be cut to achieve mileposts set by powerful bureaucrats.
How competitive and safe are these compared to Boeing and Airbus equivalent planes?
For the most part, Boeing and Airbus don't produce equivalent airplanes because they aren't involved in regional jet business. The direct competitors include Bombardier CRJ900, Embraer E175-E2 or Mitsubishi MRJ90, according to Wikie[1]. However, with sale of CS 100 by Bombardier to Airbus as Airbus 220, competition is more direct, especially if future extensions of ARJ21 are realized. ARJ21 bears some resemblance to McDonnel Douglas MD-90, which China assembled under license last century, but they are not really in the same class, with MD-90 competing directly with B737.
A few things about Comac ARJ21 that make it unlikely that the aircraft will ever fly in the West. First, it is only certified by CAAC in China and there is no plan to try certification by FAA or EASA. Second, the aircraft is designed for hot climate and high altitude airports in Tibet. As a result, it is overweight and expensive to operate elsewhere. Third, there was a multi-year delay to certification, so the aircraft is now considered obsolete.
Although China owns IP rights to the aircraft design, engines and avionics are supplied by Western companies. Western parts suppliers had to shoulder more design work than normal for subcontractors. This aircraft is considered a learning experience for Comac, which is now designing C919, a competitor of B737 and A320; and C929, a wide-body aircraft in the same class as B787 and C330. Because of Western components, it is unlikely to be converted into military aircraft, which along with limited international sales means Comac will lose money with ARJ21.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_ARJ21
A few things about Comac ARJ21 that make it unlikely that the aircraft will ever fly in the West. First, it is only certified by CAAC in China and there is no plan to try certification by FAA or EASA. Second, the aircraft is designed for hot climate and high altitude airports in Tibet. As a result, it is overweight and expensive to operate elsewhere. Third, there was a multi-year delay to certification, so the aircraft is now considered obsolete.
Although China owns IP rights to the aircraft design, engines and avionics are supplied by Western companies. Western parts suppliers had to shoulder more design work than normal for subcontractors. This aircraft is considered a learning experience for Comac, which is now designing C919, a competitor of B737 and A320; and C929, a wide-body aircraft in the same class as B787 and C330. Because of Western components, it is unlikely to be converted into military aircraft, which along with limited international sales means Comac will lose money with ARJ21.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_ARJ21
Regarding your second, I think South-America around the Andes would have some use for something like that, also around Phoenix, AZ and similar places in the CONUS. And finally China can play the certification game too, and simply deny anything which it doesn't like landing rights, or just entering their ADIZ for "safety reasons". I mean, 737-Max anyone? Show us the effing source code for your avionics, or FO. Could happen, don't you think so?
/me giggles
/me giggles
It won’t get adopted in the West. Because of protectionism.
What countries like America will do, is to turn up their media FUD to the max. They’ll accuse the Comac airplanes of spying on you while you fly, or having hidden cameras and microphones all over the plane, to record your private conversations, and to watch you take a piss in the lavatory.
Examples:
1. American politicians accuse Chinese train makers of spying.
2. American politicians accuse Chinese bus makers of spying.
3. American politicians accuse Huawei of spying. Then continues to neuter their semiconductor business, their cell phone business, and their 5G business.
4. American politicians accuse TiKTok of spying, and forcing Bytedance to sell their very profitable business to American companies for pennies on the dollar. (Still pending)
5. American politicians accuse ZTE of spying, or violating American sanctions by conducting business with Iran, and fines them $1.4 billion dollars USD. This was so easy, and these Chinese companies are so full of cash, that it was like taking candy from a baby. Expect more shenanigans like this in the future, as all these Chinese companies are ready for the reaping by American politicians.
Interestingly enough, in the 1980s, American politicians accused Japanese semiconductor makers, like Toshiba, of playing unfair, and prevented their semiconductor CPUs and memory chips from being used in America. Thus, eviscerating their business, and allowed Intel and other American companies to dominate the industry.
This sounds exactly like what America is doing now with Huawei’s 5G.
So, expect them to do the same thing with Comac’s C919.
This is American Exceptionalism. But they prefer to call it “Free market capitalism”.
What countries like America will do, is to turn up their media FUD to the max. They’ll accuse the Comac airplanes of spying on you while you fly, or having hidden cameras and microphones all over the plane, to record your private conversations, and to watch you take a piss in the lavatory.
Examples:
1. American politicians accuse Chinese train makers of spying.
2. American politicians accuse Chinese bus makers of spying.
3. American politicians accuse Huawei of spying. Then continues to neuter their semiconductor business, their cell phone business, and their 5G business.
4. American politicians accuse TiKTok of spying, and forcing Bytedance to sell their very profitable business to American companies for pennies on the dollar. (Still pending)
5. American politicians accuse ZTE of spying, or violating American sanctions by conducting business with Iran, and fines them $1.4 billion dollars USD. This was so easy, and these Chinese companies are so full of cash, that it was like taking candy from a baby. Expect more shenanigans like this in the future, as all these Chinese companies are ready for the reaping by American politicians.
Interestingly enough, in the 1980s, American politicians accused Japanese semiconductor makers, like Toshiba, of playing unfair, and prevented their semiconductor CPUs and memory chips from being used in America. Thus, eviscerating their business, and allowed Intel and other American companies to dominate the industry.
This sounds exactly like what America is doing now with Huawei’s 5G.
So, expect them to do the same thing with Comac’s C919.
This is American Exceptionalism. But they prefer to call it “Free market capitalism”.
I agree, but my conclusion isn't that it won't happen, just that it will take a while. Initially Americans refused to fly on Airbus.
Time will tell. The 737 max debacle doesn't inspire blind confidence in the West though.
I don't know that I would throw that paint on the entire West.
Is there a completely justifiable reluctance to give blanket credence to answers to technical questions given by American authorities? Absolutely, and as an intellectually honest American I'm big enough to admit that we earned that skepticism all by ourselves. The decision making apparatus of the US and its major industrial sectors have been saturated with so many ideological type people that it can no longer be depended upon to reliably answer certain questions in general.
That does not necessarily mean that EU authorities are not reliable. European regulatory authorities still have their acts together for the most part. Technical responses free of political influence can be found given technical questions. Are there issues in the EU? Yes, but in my experience, the issues are nothing like what you see in the US or China.
Is there a completely justifiable reluctance to give blanket credence to answers to technical questions given by American authorities? Absolutely, and as an intellectually honest American I'm big enough to admit that we earned that skepticism all by ourselves. The decision making apparatus of the US and its major industrial sectors have been saturated with so many ideological type people that it can no longer be depended upon to reliably answer certain questions in general.
That does not necessarily mean that EU authorities are not reliable. European regulatory authorities still have their acts together for the most part. Technical responses free of political influence can be found given technical questions. Are there issues in the EU? Yes, but in my experience, the issues are nothing like what you see in the US or China.
The fact that we actually know about it is proof that we can't be blinkered about the differences between the west and elsewhere, surely?
Didn't Boeing leadership try everything they could to deflect the issue?
Exactly, but we are lucky that in the West the truth usually gets out both thanks to regulators and a free-ish market.
Well, mainly the truth came out because two planes crashed and hundreds of people were killed. That's something even Boeing couldn't sweep under the rug.
>The 737 max debacle doesn't inspire blind confidence in the West though.
That's a rather peculiar argument. Most people wouldn't think twice about boarding an Airbus or any non-MAX plane from Boeing.
That's a rather peculiar argument. Most people wouldn't think twice about boarding an Airbus or any non-MAX plane from Boeing.
Nobody cares. The C919 can be as reliable as nothing else in the market, people will still prefer flying Western airplanes over the Comac.
Shitty bias is shitty.
Shitty bias is shitty.
Somewhat relevant is Chinese Civil Aviation Administration was the first to ground Max fleet which spurred everyone else to. There's going to be bad blood for a long time.
Competitive: not at all currently.
Safety: as safe as safety culture allows, which in terms of Chinese aviation and national prestige projects is extremely. High chance of disaster if exported in current state. Much heavier maintenance burden that penny pinching carriers from developing countries would skimp on. West would probably not adopt these planes ever.
Safety: as safe as safety culture allows, which in terms of Chinese aviation and national prestige projects is extremely. High chance of disaster if exported in current state. Much heavier maintenance burden that penny pinching carriers from developing countries would skimp on. West would probably not adopt these planes ever.
Are the Comac planes much more efficient than Boeing/Airbus of the same size/capacity? Are they much cheaper?
What's the appeal for a non-China airline to bet on these?
What's the appeal for a non-China airline to bet on these?
COMAC was one of the targets of Trump's latest China sanctions:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3111666/d...
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3111666/d...
Which makes sense: if it would speed up China's production of, let's say, military planes used in harassing or plain invading neighbors like Taiwan, it's in the US best interests not to make it any easier. Maybe not for this model, but the expertise will surely be applied to military complex: it's not the first time the CCP "rotates" key personnel.
are they good with hybrid alloys? from my understanding the whole reason the US is top dog here is because they know how to do this well.
I know a lot of parts for many items I use are made in China including the iphone but one thing I do notice is pretty much everything I buy that is entirely Chinese is crap that breaks in short order. I wouldn't go near a Chinese built plane.
Lol what a crazy position to have. My own Volvo XC60 was built in China and it's the most well put together car I've ever had. Especially compared to my previous German-built Mercedes where I can guarantee you there wasn't a single plastic that didn't rattle.
Volvo XC60’s rank low on reliability metrics for their price range. So, uhh what have you been driving?
A GLA45 AMG - it was actually just as much money as the XC60, and in the 4 years I had it I would visit the workshop probably 6-8 times per year, for minor and larger issues. Sooo many elements had to be replaced/adjusted due to rattling, creaking, falling off, had to have the entire gearbox replaced after a year. Would not recommend, not for this amount of money anyway. Btw, it had nothing to do with relability - apart from the gearbox issue, it was very reliable, just extremely poorly put together.
I've had this XC60 since brand new for a year now and literally had zero issues with it. Nothing.
I've had this XC60 since brand new for a year now and literally had zero issues with it. Nothing.
Just an anecdote but when I was backpacking in Munich, I ran across these young Irish backpackers. They were on the way to work at the German car factories. This was quite awhile ago but I suspect not much has changed.
No offense to those guys who seemed bright but poor, but it isn’t a bunch of well educated German craftsmen and craftswomen working those factories.
No offense to those guys who seemed bright but poor, but it isn’t a bunch of well educated German craftsmen and craftswomen working those factories.
I guess they did some low level jobs in the holiday season.
Car manufactoring pays way to good to give these jobs to irish travelers.
Your point is well taken but that generation GLA/CLA as sold in the US is perhaps the worst recent Mercedes - they do currently make some solidly built cars. An XC60 is an upgrade in every way other than horsepower.
>>An XC60 is an upgrade in every way other than horsepower.
Weeeeell, this particular one is(GLA45 was 381bhp, the XC60 T8 is 390bhp). But yeah, it's not really comparable, these two have very different use cases.
Weeeeell, this particular one is(GLA45 was 381bhp, the XC60 T8 is 390bhp). But yeah, it's not really comparable, these two have very different use cases.
Ok, that makes sense. I know people live them, but that’s a brand that’s going to spend some time in the shop.
I think you meant to say "I do notice is pretty much everything I buy that is entirely cheap is crap that breaks in short order"
There're scams and various levels of quality, but price is a pretty ok indicator of quality. If you buy something cheap, it'll break. Doesn't matter if it's cheap Chinese or European or American crap.
There're scams and various levels of quality, but price is a pretty ok indicator of quality. If you buy something cheap, it'll break. Doesn't matter if it's cheap Chinese or European or American crap.
What kind of items you typically buy? How are their prices looks like compared to items manufactured from other places (USA EU etc)?
I often heard YouTube comments claim that one got crappy Chinese products because of they paid cheap price. I don't have much experience in buying items directly from China (I bought a drill and impact drive from AliExpress, have been OK); want to learn your experience.
I often heard YouTube comments claim that one got crappy Chinese products because of they paid cheap price. I don't have much experience in buying items directly from China (I bought a drill and impact drive from AliExpress, have been OK); want to learn your experience.
Nearly anything that costs under $100, is not a consumable/personal care item/detergent/etc, and is above the fold on Amazon search results will have been made in China.
> I often heard YouTube comments claim that one got crappy Chinese products because of they paid cheap price. I don't have much experience in buying items directly from China (I bought a drill and impact drive from AliExpress, have been OK); want to learn your experience.
I think that's the nuance that other people miss. Cheap stuff is cheap for a reason and they break. We have all purchased expensive Chinese stuff that work well but we don't attribute them to China because of the shiny non-Chinese logo on them (i.e. Apple, etc.) Anker is a new generation of Chinese companies that is trying to build a brand and move up market. Their stuff have been superb but aren't bargain bin prices.
I think that's the nuance that other people miss. Cheap stuff is cheap for a reason and they break. We have all purchased expensive Chinese stuff that work well but we don't attribute them to China because of the shiny non-Chinese logo on them (i.e. Apple, etc.) Anker is a new generation of Chinese companies that is trying to build a brand and move up market. Their stuff have been superb but aren't bargain bin prices.
This is a constant misunderstanding of supply and products origin. Just because an iPhone is "made" in China does not mean it's a Chinese phone. Apple have rigorous standards of quality control and factory management, they have oversight.
A Chinese product, would be something that is designed in China and also made by Chinese production. Those are the Chinesium that have little to no quality control and are Chinese products. iPhones are not Chinese products, they are being built in China to Apple standards.
I would agree with you that Anker seem to make nice products of a higher quality.
BOE display (Chinese company) recently started supplying display panels for iPhone. Since the panel is one of the most expensive components of the phone, value added part for China is increasing.
There is a name for that. It's called Chinesium.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Chinesium/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Chinesium/
> There is a name for that. It's called Chinesium.
That reminds me of a scene in Back to the Future where 1955 Doc Brown mocks a failed Japanese-made component based solely on his stereotypes, and 1985 Marty corrects him and says the Japanese make the best stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1QcjsjjtRc
That reminds me of a scene in Back to the Future where 1955 Doc Brown mocks a failed Japanese-made component based solely on his stereotypes, and 1985 Marty corrects him and says the Japanese make the best stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1QcjsjjtRc
Is there any economical incentive for China to produce higher quality goods?
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Yes. Higher profit margins. Whereas before you were making bad copies of $50 goods, now you make a good copy of $1500 goods. Those more expensive goods carry higher margins.
Obviously. Higher end products attract higher margins and a reputation for quality is a good differentiator compared to competing on price.
For example, Huawei is (or was...) going after Apple in the high end smartphone market and they produce extremely good quality products.
For example, Huawei is (or was...) going after Apple in the high end smartphone market and they produce extremely good quality products.
Not quite sure where the hate is coming from. The US is consistently eroding their manufacturing capability, and if there's one fact of business it's a void will fill itself...