Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW(asia.nikkei.com)
asia.nikkei.com
Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-finds-electronics-6-years-ahead-of-Toyota-and-VW2
457 comments
A lot of the tech in the Tesla vehicles is truly innovative. Look at the seemingly simple cooling bottle they use, which is the best in the entire automotive industry (and patented by them):
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3s-superbottle-easter-e...
I keep hearing people talk about fit and finish problems with Tesla vehicles, but I simply don't see it. I was so paranoid when I took delivery of mine that I literally brought a measuring tape. They've long since fixed the body panel problems and it manifested itself more with older Model S/X and the very first batch of Model 3s. This "problem" is pretty much gone, and this argument is like beating a dead horse.
Disclaimer: own a Model 3 and have since Nov 2018
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3s-superbottle-easter-e...
I keep hearing people talk about fit and finish problems with Tesla vehicles, but I simply don't see it. I was so paranoid when I took delivery of mine that I literally brought a measuring tape. They've long since fixed the body panel problems and it manifested itself more with older Model S/X and the very first batch of Model 3s. This "problem" is pretty much gone, and this argument is like beating a dead horse.
Disclaimer: own a Model 3 and have since Nov 2018
Even Bob Lutz thinks Tesla has good fit and finish now.
"But, when next to the car, I was stunned. Not only was the paint without any discernible flaw, but the various panels formed a body of precision that was beyond reproach. Gaps from hood to fenders, doors to frame, and all the others appeared to be perfectly even, equal side-to-side, and completely parallel. Gaps of 3.5 to 4.5mm are considered word-class. This Model 3 measured up."
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/a28008116/tesla-model-...
"But, when next to the car, I was stunned. Not only was the paint without any discernible flaw, but the various panels formed a body of precision that was beyond reproach. Gaps from hood to fenders, doors to frame, and all the others appeared to be perfectly even, equal side-to-side, and completely parallel. Gaps of 3.5 to 4.5mm are considered word-class. This Model 3 measured up."
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/a28008116/tesla-model-...
Agreed, I have a 2019 Model 3. My car does have a few panel gaps that are not the exact same width from one side of the car to the other, but you are literally talking about a millimeter or two here or there, no one would ever notice. I've never heard of anyone complaining about the paint job on a Tesla, the paint on ours looks perfect. The interior seats are super comfortable, probably the most comfortable car seats I've ever sat in, and I've never seen any defects with the seats either.
Overall Tesla's customer satisfaction is really, really high. Most owners are extremely satisfied with their cars, even if they have a few warts. They really are the Apple of the automotive world.
Overall Tesla's customer satisfaction is really, really high. Most owners are extremely satisfied with their cars, even if they have a few warts. They really are the Apple of the automotive world.
> Overall Tesla's customer satisfaction is really, really high
That's because most of the owners have new cars.
Wait until they need to have their car serviced by Tesla or until their batteries degrade and are subject to a forced OTA "upgrade" that removes capacity i.e. Model S.
https://electrek.co/2019/10/04/tesla-software-updat-battery-...
That's because most of the owners have new cars.
Wait until they need to have their car serviced by Tesla or until their batteries degrade and are subject to a forced OTA "upgrade" that removes capacity i.e. Model S.
https://electrek.co/2019/10/04/tesla-software-updat-battery-...
I've had mine serviced a couple times, and it's been an absolute pleasure compared to my Audi or Porsche.
There are horror stories as recently as today in r/teslamotors. Some of the service centers are quite good, some are just terrible.
I'm not sure how this is unique to Tesla
Aye, I've dealt with Ford and Mazda dealerships that were utterly abysmal. Others were better. Hit or miss quality of dealerships and service centers is not a surprise and not a flaw of the brand per se.
"But Tesla is a luxury model that competes with Porsche and should make me feel fancy and be super nice etc etc" ...eh kinda, but not really, IMO. The S model does but future models are aimed at a more down-market segment and are going mainstream.
"But Tesla is a luxury model that competes with Porsche and should make me feel fancy and be super nice etc etc" ...eh kinda, but not really, IMO. The S model does but future models are aimed at a more down-market segment and are going mainstream.
It's still pretty variable, actually. Mine is pretty good (built 9/19), with only a few discernible misalignment. But other people who have taken delivery in just the last couple months have had terrible alignment. Maybe most are perfectly acceptable, but it is incorrect to suggest it is a completely solved problem.
Does it really matter long-term? A lot of people seem fixated on it. I get it if you are buying a car at the moment. Then there’s an innovation vs. quality issue. For the company though, it seems like it should be far easier to catch up on the quality of the trim as it’s purely executing on something many OEMs have already figured out, and there are proven, known ways to fix those types of issues?
Less than 0.5% of owners say they are dissatisfied with the exterior appearance of their Tesla (including paint issues)[0]. And quality has continued to improve since then.
That is, by far, the most extensive and reliable source we have on this topic but please point to any other study that might say the contrary.
[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey...
That is, by far, the most extensive and reliable source we have on this topic but please point to any other study that might say the contrary.
[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey...
Pretty strong selection bias here, if people were turned away by the lacking build quality they wouldn't be an owner. Also a pretty huge post-hoc rationalization gap here
When was the last time you went and looked? Build quality has improved substantially since first Model 3 deliveries.
Just saw a 2020 top spec model 3 that still has a few misaligned gaps and bunching seals in the doors. The leather around the back where it was punched out is creased. It's a great car, but the for and finish sadly still has a ways to go.
Yea, Tesla is selling cars sight unseen which makes minor cosmetic issues a very low priority for them. It says less about build quality than their sales model.
Personally I doubt most customers notice or care, but it’s an obvious thing to criticize.
Personally I doubt most customers notice or care, but it’s an obvious thing to criticize.
Here in Brazil for quite a few years it's been standard to not see a new car for days to weeks after buying it, even on traditional brick-and-mortar dealers where you can test-drive a different car of the same model before buying yours. I don't know about the luxury market.
I have an early VIN (004xxx series) model 3 from 2018. One of the earliest non employee deliveries. There are some panel gaps.
Judging a Tesla by the panel gaps is reminiscent of the Blackberry execs judging early iPhones by battery life (ironically). The game has changed.
Or, in other words:
Judging a Tesla by the panel gaps is reminiscent of the Blackberry execs judging early iPhones by battery life (ironically). The game has changed.
Or, in other words:
No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.
I chuckled, as I remember reading that comment then
I was skeptical of Tesla, I didn't buy it when all my friends got it. The car seemed bland inside, devoid of any fashion/art/decor etc. The panel gaps .. ughh..
I test drove it 3 times. Hated it the first time in 2018. Late 2019, I used auto-pilot on 880 and 101. I was sold. There isn't a car available now that can drive on Autopilot with that confidence. I don't let it drive on auto over 30mph, and under it is where it really shines, takes the edge off of bumper to bumper traffic. I bought it.
I took delivery on the last day of year, was a little pissed off at Tesla, that they left me with little choice if there were any issues with it. I got home, saw no issues and felt relieved. I now love the car. The Audio is turned on the moment I open the door. The temperature is set to my liking and I glide with one finger press. There are no keys, and my car knows I go to work in the morning, so the directions are set. I get on the freeway, usually bumper to bumper, set autopilot, chill out and listen to radio. I think I am a much happier person now.
I test drove it 3 times. Hated it the first time in 2018. Late 2019, I used auto-pilot on 880 and 101. I was sold. There isn't a car available now that can drive on Autopilot with that confidence. I don't let it drive on auto over 30mph, and under it is where it really shines, takes the edge off of bumper to bumper traffic. I bought it.
I took delivery on the last day of year, was a little pissed off at Tesla, that they left me with little choice if there were any issues with it. I got home, saw no issues and felt relieved. I now love the car. The Audio is turned on the moment I open the door. The temperature is set to my liking and I glide with one finger press. There are no keys, and my car knows I go to work in the morning, so the directions are set. I get on the freeway, usually bumper to bumper, set autopilot, chill out and listen to radio. I think I am a much happier person now.
I live in a rainy area of the country. Periodically my car annoys me to the point of cursing, because the auto wipers are extremely stupid. And because there is only one non-touch/voice control for them, you're kinda stuck.
I also wish it would not refuse to unlock about 10% of the time. I may just get the fob.
I also wish it would not refuse to unlock about 10% of the time. I may just get the fob.
Agreed. The wipers could be better. I haven’t encountered the unlocking problem though. What did Tesla say?
I haven't bothered asking Tesla to explain the unreliable unlocking, since it seems to happen to almost everyone else periodically, and some people quite a lot. I just take the phone out of my pocket and hold the door handle open for a while until it figures it out. After 10 or 15 seconds I usually just take out my wallet and use the RFID.
I also started using sentry mode even in my garage, which helps tremendously, because it seems like the root cause is the car going to sleep.
I also started using sentry mode even in my garage, which helps tremendously, because it seems like the root cause is the car going to sleep.
Usually for me it's unreliable only when line of sight from phone to car is blocked. That's with an iPhone. I hear Android devices have more issues.
Edit: And the new fob is awesome. Different tech from the old one as you've probably heard, with different security/convenience tradeoffs. (With the old one being more secure, but to an insane level, and the new one being ever so slightly less secure but still very good in my admittedly fuzzy understanding of it). No issues whatsoever since getting that.
Edit: And the new fob is awesome. Different tech from the old one as you've probably heard, with different security/convenience tradeoffs. (With the old one being more secure, but to an insane level, and the new one being ever so slightly less secure but still very good in my admittedly fuzzy understanding of it). No issues whatsoever since getting that.
Do you kill the Tesla app on the phone regularly? It takes a bit for it to unlock the phone in that case. Did you try changing your phone? (Not to be offensive, just curious)
Yes this is a good point too. It makes sense that there might be some delay added when the OS has to start the app in the background to respond to an event the app has registered for (...didRangeBeacons...) and maybe one of the reasons they recommend against killing the app!
It does annoy me that my Mazda takes forever to go from turning the car on to Spotify playing via CarPlay. There’s even a pointless popup warning you not to get distracted that you have to click through.
Total non-sense; this might have been true about the first ones off the line 2 years ago but hasn't been the case for some time. They also seem to be selling them faster than they can make them so even if true which it isn't the market doesn't seem to care.
The market will care when it comes to upgrading to the new model in a few years.
People have been upgrading Tesla for years already. There are been some very extensive surveys about Tesla reliability (about all kinds of defects) and owners say they are overwhelming satisfied, overall: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey...
I hear this fit and finish critique of Tesla often. But the whole package of a Tesla is clearly compelling to people, who are willing to pay a luxury price for it.
High end Volvo’s are a good example of old-school quality — gorgeous interiors, beautiful trim. But they’re still predominantly internal combustion engine era designs. The height of it from a luxury finish standpoint. But, Tesla’s different.
Maybe it’s that petro cars reached a peak, and the only way to really differentiate has come down to “door sound” and body panel alignment measured in nanometers.
High end Volvo’s are a good example of old-school quality — gorgeous interiors, beautiful trim. But they’re still predominantly internal combustion engine era designs. The height of it from a luxury finish standpoint. But, Tesla’s different.
Maybe it’s that petro cars reached a peak, and the only way to really differentiate has come down to “door sound” and body panel alignment measured in nanometers.
Fit and Finish are exterior indicators of the quality of the entire vehicle. If they don’t care enough to make the panels line up, what assurances do we have that they do care enough to torque all of the bolts correctly, to ensure that the motor is mounted correctly, to ensure that the suspension has been properly calibrated?
Also, the condition of the body and the interior matter more to the vehicle’s resale value than the condition of the rest of the car - again they are indicators of the quality and care taken with the rest of the car.
Also, the condition of the body and the interior matter more to the vehicle’s resale value than the condition of the rest of the car - again they are indicators of the quality and care taken with the rest of the car.
It's a heuristic not a rule.
Is it? Getting the spacing down so its not noticeable by humans is doing manufacturing and assembly with tolerances measured in whole millimeters. It’s easily the largest possible tolerances allowed within the manufacture and assembly of the car. It should be some of the easiest manufacturing and assembly to be done.
If they can’t manage tolerances measured in millimeters, how can they manage manufacturing and assembly tolerances measured in the thousandths of a millimeter?
If they can’t manage tolerances measured in millimeters, how can they manage manufacturing and assembly tolerances measured in the thousandths of a millimeter?
> Is it?
Yes.
Internal combustion engines require intense tolerances. If your cylinder head is 1mm out of spec you're going to have serious problems.
But if the wire winding bundle for the electric motor is 5mm out of spec? You'll be fine.
The areas in a Tesla where tolerances are actually important- the batteries and PCBs- are subject to completely different engineering practices. Nobody's going to get cross trained from fitting door panels to placing SMCs... which is done by a robot anyway.
Do you (literally) kick the tires of a car before you buy it?
Yes.
Internal combustion engines require intense tolerances. If your cylinder head is 1mm out of spec you're going to have serious problems.
But if the wire winding bundle for the electric motor is 5mm out of spec? You'll be fine.
The areas in a Tesla where tolerances are actually important- the batteries and PCBs- are subject to completely different engineering practices. Nobody's going to get cross trained from fitting door panels to placing SMCs... which is done by a robot anyway.
Do you (literally) kick the tires of a car before you buy it?
Engines aren't built on the body assembly line, they are also subject to completely different engineering practices, and have their own set of workers. And robots, too!
If they wiring bundle is 5mm out, you're going to have a bad day, shits going to burn.
If the doors are misaligned it either means the chassis is deformed, or at best the hinges are misaligned.
That doesn't bode well to what happens in a crash, or if it rains. Are the seals oversized to account for slop? what happens when they get old?
If I'm dropping $100k on a new car, I want to make bloody sure its built well. That doesn't mean that people won't buy them, far from it.
Look, I get it, Tesla is new and shiny. But lets not over-rate them. They have parts that are very well built. but the software, chassis and interior are not part of that.
If the doors are misaligned it either means the chassis is deformed, or at best the hinges are misaligned.
That doesn't bode well to what happens in a crash, or if it rains. Are the seals oversized to account for slop? what happens when they get old?
If I'm dropping $100k on a new car, I want to make bloody sure its built well. That doesn't mean that people won't buy them, far from it.
Look, I get it, Tesla is new and shiny. But lets not over-rate them. They have parts that are very well built. but the software, chassis and interior are not part of that.
This is like saying they must not have computer chips in the car because of door tolerances and yet clearly they do. Maybe they just don't care about exterior fit and finish?
"But they’re still predominantly internal combustion engine era designs"
This is implicitly saying that what matters is not even the specific car you are buying, but the image of the company and their entire lineup being electric.
This cuts in the opposite direction for me - it is a significant reason why I wouldn't buy a Tesla (other than the price). The company is so tied to Elon that if some sort of scandal happened to him, it would instantly taint owners of the cars.
This is implicitly saying that what matters is not even the specific car you are buying, but the image of the company and their entire lineup being electric.
This cuts in the opposite direction for me - it is a significant reason why I wouldn't buy a Tesla (other than the price). The company is so tied to Elon that if some sort of scandal happened to him, it would instantly taint owners of the cars.
The power of marketing is incredible.
No one else could get away with Tesla quality at luxury pricing, but they sell vehicles.
No one else could get away with Tesla quality at luxury pricing, but they sell vehicles.
Tesla has never done commercials, they don't do ads in magazines, they don't pay people at football games to talk them up. They have a website, they make blog posts. Imagine if Ford never paid for those endless car ads. Or your local chevy dealer stopped advertising all the time. Tesla doesn't do marketing in the sense that they don't pay for ads.
Imagine if they did, what their sales would be.
Imagine if they did, what their sales would be.
Do you think "build quality" has achieved its apparent importance (to some) without marketing?
For many drivers other issues take precedence.
For many drivers other issues take precedence.
I don't care about minor paint and panel spacing errors. It takes all of 5 minutes to get scratches after driving off the lot.
I personally hate cars but still have to drive, like the environment, want less pollution and hate car maintenance even though I can do it.
When other car's can recognize stop lights the panel spacing might be a factor.
I personally hate cars but still have to drive, like the environment, want less pollution and hate car maintenance even though I can do it.
When other car's can recognize stop lights the panel spacing might be a factor.
Let's take a look at the economic models again that assume all consumers are rational agents...
Save for the small detail that 33k USD for an electric vehicle is not luxury pricing at all.
* Nissan Leaf: 31k
* Kia Soule EV: 33k
* Chevrolet Bolt: 38k
* Nissan Leaf: 31k
* Kia Soule EV: 33k
* Chevrolet Bolt: 38k
Where are you getting the 33k number? The model 3 is more like 40k base price.
in the article: "This is the takeaway from Nikkei Business Publications' teardown of the Model 3, the most affordable car in the U.S. automaker's all-electric lineup, starting at about $33,000."
Looking at very low mileage 2019 Teslas for sale on Autotrader, in the $40-50K range is about right. The cheapest used 2019 model 3 in the whole US is more than $33K. And the only 2020 examples are much more expensive.
You can argue forever about technicalities, but $33K is not an apples-to-apples comparison. In fact, I would say if you are comparing brand new 2020 cars, $50K+ for the model 3 is more realistic, and you should take into account the discounts other cars have.
You can argue forever about technicalities, but $33K is not an apples-to-apples comparison. In fact, I would say if you are comparing brand new 2020 cars, $50K+ for the model 3 is more realistic, and you should take into account the discounts other cars have.
they have a 35k model available by special order. But you have to go out of your way to specifically ask for it. https://www.motortrend.com/news/the-35k-tesla-model-3-is-fin...
That shows that Nikkei did not do their research. $33k is Tesla's deceptive advertising of "Price after Est. Savings". The cheapest car actually costs $40,000 plus tax.
It's actually ~$36k (without savings), but it is "off menu":
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a28691921/tesla-model-3-st...
author forgot to click the "purchase price" slider and instead rounded down the "price after potential fuel savings"
The Chevy Bolt is priced the same as the Tesla Model 3 and has less 'luxary' features. For example if you want leather in the Bolt that's extra where as it is standard on the 3. Other things the Bolt doesn't have at that price are Autopilot, DC Fast Charging, etc...
The Bolt is not priced the same as the Model 3. Examples:
https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?mdId=362...
https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?mdId=362...
MSRP is exactly the same as Model 3. The fact that they have to offer them 40% off MSRP because no one wants them isn't a good thing.
And yet, miraculously, the Bolt is cheaper.
The Bolt is the best value for money EV in the world at the moment. It's untouchable in price for range.
The Bolt is the best value for money EV in the world at the moment. It's untouchable in price for range.
Sure, it is cheaper in the same way everything at a going out of business sale is cheaper.
Recognizing traffic lights is worth more than the cost difference.
As someone whose car recognizes traffic lights (though not with perfect accuracy), it is the most useless feature I've ever seen. Right along with recognizing garbage cans. I would not pay a dime extra for the visualizations, especially since they're quite inaccurate in many cases. So, many, cones, even when there aren't really any cones.
Does it stop for traffic lights and start for green?
There’s no leather in the Model 3. But the seat material (“vegan leather”) is very nice.
I don’t think of the money spent as buying luxury. What it’s buying are the other amazing aspects of the car. Performance, range, efficiency, connectivity, updates, safety, etc. which may have some overlap with features of luxury cars, but it’s better to think of it as a next generation car where you are paying for that new tech, and any luxury touches you may get, while not measuring up to a teak wood console in some other car, are bonuses. Instead of the teak wood and alligator leather cigar holder or whatever, you are getting AWD that beats the pants off Subaru, Audi quattro, or anyone else, and all the other amazing things Tesla gives you.
I don’t think of the money spent as buying luxury. What it’s buying are the other amazing aspects of the car. Performance, range, efficiency, connectivity, updates, safety, etc. which may have some overlap with features of luxury cars, but it’s better to think of it as a next generation car where you are paying for that new tech, and any luxury touches you may get, while not measuring up to a teak wood console in some other car, are bonuses. Instead of the teak wood and alligator leather cigar holder or whatever, you are getting AWD that beats the pants off Subaru, Audi quattro, or anyone else, and all the other amazing things Tesla gives you.
The leather is tied to the range in the model 3.
No it's not. All Model 3's produced have the same exact seats (besides the minor revisions).
You may be thinking of the originally proposed SR/SR+ half leather and half linen or whatever they were talking about. They scrapped that.
You may be thinking of the originally proposed SR/SR+ half leather and half linen or whatever they were talking about. They scrapped that.
False, you cannot buy a Model 3, or any Tesla for that matter that doesn't have leather. There was a planed cloth seat for the model 3 but they scrapped that.
Is it real animal skin? As someone who opts out of leather interiors in cars, and knowing that Tesla sells well to the SV crowd, I'm surprised that there'd be no way to buy a tesla without killing some cattle.
3 and Y are vegan leather. The others had a cloth option, but for the new ones the leather will be vegan.
"vegan leather"
So, plastic.
So, plastic.
Yes, polyurethane, which according to testing, performs better than real leather in the rubbing/scratching tests. Durability in general is superior on actual 'premium' leatherette/vegan leather offerings.
Sure, you can make crap leatherette material that is way too hot and sticky and feels like cheap vinyl, but that's not what this is.
Sure, you can make crap leatherette material that is way too hot and sticky and feels like cheap vinyl, but that's not what this is.
Hopefully more like "I can't believe it's not leather".
[deleted]
>The power of marketing is incredible.
Tesla doesn’t advertise.
Guess who does? The car companies that you seem to think have a better price/value offering. Hmm, so yes, the power of marketing is incredible indeed.
Tesla doesn’t advertise.
Guess who does? The car companies that you seem to think have a better price/value offering. Hmm, so yes, the power of marketing is incredible indeed.
Fixed: Tesla's marketing is so powerful, that they don't even need to advertise.
Fixed: Tesla's products are so good, they don't even need to advertise.
Oh yeah, they are at VW level regarding marketing!
These seem like legitimate but insignificant issues.
As long as it is functionally sound, I don't think minor cosmetic issues will materially impact public opinion. The general public is unaware of body panel alignment as a concept.
As long as it is functionally sound, I don't think minor cosmetic issues will materially impact public opinion. The general public is unaware of body panel alignment as a concept.
That's what Detroit car companies said when Japanese car quality started taking off.
The worst fit and finish I ever saw was my sister's 1980 Dodge Aspen.
The worst fit and finish I ever saw was my sister's 1980 Dodge Aspen.
Agreed. There is a reason that the Camry has been the best selling car in the US just about every single year since 1997. Boring reliability is very attractive to a lot of consumers. Enthusiasts will put up with Tesla quality in order to have the technology, but appliance car buyers are much less willing to accept that.
Sorry can you clarify your point? I am lost in a bit of ambiguity in the syntax.
"I don't think minor cosmetic issues will materially impact public opinion" is exactly the opinion of the Detroit car companies before they started losing market share to the Japanese companies. They've never recovered. The Japanese were widely regarded to be higher quality machines, and the fit/finish was a big part of that perception.
Ah thanks.
I’d add my impression was that the mechanical reliability and price were the key factors.
It would also be important for us to agree on what truly is minor cosmetics versus total negligence or awful design and material quality.
I’d add my impression was that the mechanical reliability and price were the key factors.
It would also be important for us to agree on what truly is minor cosmetics versus total negligence or awful design and material quality.
Did you personally see this? Or are you just repeating what you saw somewhere. I gave my model 3 a close look before I bought it and found none of the mentioned problems.
There have been some pretty egregious examples posted in the last month or so on r/teslamotors. So it still happens, though I don't know why. Mine is basically fine, though I'd say it isn't quite up to the level of fit and finish as my Camaro.
Yes, tesla showroom, in a major shopping centre in the UK, in december 2019
I was _very_ skeptical of people talking about fit and finish. I was assuming its people trash talking.
However, I have now seen it with my own eyes.
I was _very_ skeptical of people talking about fit and finish. I was assuming its people trash talking.
However, I have now seen it with my own eyes.
And yet, Tesla costumers constantly poll as the most satisfied of all new car owners. Maybe there are more important things than bumps in the paint?
Just guessing, I don't own a car.
Just guessing, I don't own a car.
> And yet, Tesla costumers constantly poll as the most satisfied of all new car owners.
I wonder what the demographics are exactly of people who buy Model 3's, is it their first $40k+ vehicle?
One thing is abundantly clear, the people who are super excited about "new" tech in Teslas aren't following motor news. People seem to have no clue whatsoever that a lot of the tech you can get in a Tesla exists in other cars as well. Tesla is definitely at the top of the pack, but they're not ahead of the pack.
It looks exactly like when Apple announce a "new" feature, and all the Android owners moan and bitch that their phones have had this feature for years, yet all the apple owners are super happy about their new iPhone with this new cool feature that they've never seen before.
They "shouldn't" be happy, but due to marketing warping people's perceptions, they are. I suspect something like that might apply to Teslas and the people who buy them. If you've never owned or driven a BMW 3-series or similar, and then switched to a Tesla Model 3, I perfectly understand why you think your Tesla is the best car you've ever had.
I wonder what the demographics are exactly of people who buy Model 3's, is it their first $40k+ vehicle?
One thing is abundantly clear, the people who are super excited about "new" tech in Teslas aren't following motor news. People seem to have no clue whatsoever that a lot of the tech you can get in a Tesla exists in other cars as well. Tesla is definitely at the top of the pack, but they're not ahead of the pack.
It looks exactly like when Apple announce a "new" feature, and all the Android owners moan and bitch that their phones have had this feature for years, yet all the apple owners are super happy about their new iPhone with this new cool feature that they've never seen before.
They "shouldn't" be happy, but due to marketing warping people's perceptions, they are. I suspect something like that might apply to Teslas and the people who buy them. If you've never owned or driven a BMW 3-series or similar, and then switched to a Tesla Model 3, I perfectly understand why you think your Tesla is the best car you've ever had.
What is the marketing and hype that tesla is doing? they don't have paid ads. The make announcements and blog posts. Meanwhile, every other legacy car company pays millions a year in paid ads, my local dealers must spend 100k plus a year. What car has the web browser like my tesla that lets me use tesla-waze? What car has the apps that tesla does? Sure, there are some cars with a few things. No electric car until this year has the features that my 2012 tesla model s 85 has, including range but also including all the tech. 6 years ahead, some specifics:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-...
> What is the marketing and hype that tesla is doing? they don't have paid ads.
That is exactly my point, yet their announcements always make it to the tech press, because they are the darling of the tech world.
> Meanwhile, every other legacy car company pays millions a year in paid ads
When was the last time you saw an ad for a Mercedes S-class, Audi A8 or BMW 7-series?
I'm betting never, because those companies don't really advertise their most advanced cars to a mass market. And when they advertise them, they highlight the luxury and sophistication, and shut up about all the tech. So people generally don't know about all the stuff they have, and those cars are loaded.
> Sure, there are some cars with a few things.
I don't think you know what the state of the art is among the other car companies. Mercedes launched automatic lane changes before Tesla did, for example. Audi had stop&go cruise control before Tesla even launched Model S. BMW has had night vision pedestrian detection for years, Teslas don't have that. You can't even get a HUD on any Tesla, yet pretty much every other car brand offers that as an option on some of their models.
> No electric car until this year
That's a bit unfair considering the other car makers haven't really put out any electric cars with the same looks and features as their existing gas cars before now.
> 6 years ahead, some specifics:
1) Yeah, I already read the article that this post was about, not just the HN comments.
2) There are zero specifics in that article, it talks about a single thing, and that is that the core processing unit of Teslas are way ahead of the competition. Cool, but not exactly informative or specific.
That is exactly my point, yet their announcements always make it to the tech press, because they are the darling of the tech world.
> Meanwhile, every other legacy car company pays millions a year in paid ads
When was the last time you saw an ad for a Mercedes S-class, Audi A8 or BMW 7-series?
I'm betting never, because those companies don't really advertise their most advanced cars to a mass market. And when they advertise them, they highlight the luxury and sophistication, and shut up about all the tech. So people generally don't know about all the stuff they have, and those cars are loaded.
> Sure, there are some cars with a few things.
I don't think you know what the state of the art is among the other car companies. Mercedes launched automatic lane changes before Tesla did, for example. Audi had stop&go cruise control before Tesla even launched Model S. BMW has had night vision pedestrian detection for years, Teslas don't have that. You can't even get a HUD on any Tesla, yet pretty much every other car brand offers that as an option on some of their models.
> No electric car until this year
That's a bit unfair considering the other car makers haven't really put out any electric cars with the same looks and features as their existing gas cars before now.
> 6 years ahead, some specifics:
1) Yeah, I already read the article that this post was about, not just the HN comments.
2) There are zero specifics in that article, it talks about a single thing, and that is that the core processing unit of Teslas are way ahead of the competition. Cool, but not exactly informative or specific.
Indeed. Great headlights (without paying for the upgrade that much of the competition requires), great safety, great acceleration, great stereo, great nav, great handling, etc.
Don't look at my GMC then. Panel gaps are bad. Paint so thin you can see through it. Rattles and squeaks everywhere. And the electronics are of course garbage.
> Look at the doors of the model three. Note that they don't line up.
I'm not in the US but people in my region comment how all US vehicles have poor panel quality. I've spoken to paint shop employees and garage mechanics who say the panels of US cars have gaps that are embarrassingly large. In the mind of a buyer that makes you question overall quality.
And never buy a white car either they rust because the panels don't get warm enough to drive out moisture.
I'm not in the US but people in my region comment how all US vehicles have poor panel quality. I've spoken to paint shop employees and garage mechanics who say the panels of US cars have gaps that are embarrassingly large. In the mind of a buyer that makes you question overall quality.
And never buy a white car either they rust because the panels don't get warm enough to drive out moisture.
It's all relative, in the American southwest nearly every car is white, it's the only color that's livable. Moisture is the least of their concerns there.
I had never heard this about white cars! This must apply to any car maker and maybe other light colors?
anytime I go to a tropical country, almost all the cars are white for precisely this reason
I've bought two white cars from the southewest and used them in the northeast.
One had body panels that were mostly plastic, and lasted 18 years. The other is five years old. Neither shows any sign of rust.
One had body panels that were mostly plastic, and lasted 18 years. The other is five years old. Neither shows any sign of rust.
I think you’re missing the point of what consumers find valuable about Tesla cars. It’s not the body or fancy interiors. The tech is what people want and because of that, cosmetic issues is an ok tradeoff. Of course, as other companies catch up on the Tech side, they’ll need to fix those issues, but they’ve got time.
It's true that people who have brought Teslas have accepted Tesla's current build quality. But it's the people who haven't brought Teslas where the company's growth will come from!
The worry with things like gaps between panels isn't just cosmetic - it's that the process control to achieve "reliably waterproof even after 15 years" is harder than "visibly perfect"
There was a time when a sunroof was a liability on a car as they so often developed leaks. People who can remember this time aren't looking to return to it :)
The worry with things like gaps between panels isn't just cosmetic - it's that the process control to achieve "reliably waterproof even after 15 years" is harder than "visibly perfect"
There was a time when a sunroof was a liability on a car as they so often developed leaks. People who can remember this time aren't looking to return to it :)
You seem to think that disposing cars like iPhones is a problem. Sure, it's an environmental problem, and not what people who drive a Corolla for 20 years would prefer, but is it a practical problem for Tesla, or a huge opportunity? You know, look at Apple. They don't have to have everyone be a customer as long as it seems like the best people are and they make ungodly profits from each of them.
You can buy a car for one focus or another though. I think it is fair to assume technology is the main focus of buying a Tesla.
In the 90s there were a myriad of pragmatic sports cars built, with the focus on performance over fine details.
Door gaps has been a funny development, it's important aesthetically of course, but I think unfairly it has become a shorthand for a car's overall build quality.
In the 90s there were a myriad of pragmatic sports cars built, with the focus on performance over fine details.
Door gaps has been a funny development, it's important aesthetically of course, but I think unfairly it has become a shorthand for a car's overall build quality.
People like tangible, easily understood, and (typically) one-dimensional metrics for assessing product quality. Look at: Mega-pixels for cameras back in the day, and sheet thread-count. Neither of those things is telling the whole story nor are they even directly related to quality. But people latch on to them because they’re a single number, and easy to compare.
No one understands what’s actually inside a car and what physically distinguishes a good car from a bad one, so they latch onto the one parameter they can actually see and touch and understand: body panel alignment and paint quality.
No one understands what’s actually inside a car and what physically distinguishes a good car from a bad one, so they latch onto the one parameter they can actually see and touch and understand: body panel alignment and paint quality.
Is this purely an aesthetic thing or is it an actual structural problem that has an appreciable effect on the day to day operation or reliability of the car.
Or is your argument more that if they can't fix the 'easy' things then that is an indication of more systemic problems with the integrity of the car
Or is your argument more that if they can't fix the 'easy' things then that is an indication of more systemic problems with the integrity of the car
I see Teslas daily and while they don't match the German Big Three (European built ones at least) on fit and finish, they aren't that far from your typical imported American car.
Nevertheless buyers don't seem to care that much about this.
Nevertheless buyers don't seem to care that much about this.
I just checked my garage. It looks fine. Which one of us is lying?
>Even a budget Kia has better build quality than this.
Is this a recent thing or do you mean the $20k+ as budget in this context? The last budget (cheap manual) Kia I sat in felt like a tin can deathtrap.
Is this a recent thing or do you mean the $20k+ as budget in this context? The last budget (cheap manual) Kia I sat in felt like a tin can deathtrap.
I'm not a Tesla owner. In fact, I find the company's hype driven marketing annoying.
That being said, your info is out of date. The fit and finish isn't an issue anymore.
That being said, your info is out of date. The fit and finish isn't an issue anymore.
People still have problems. I hang out on r/teslamotors periodically, and I own a recently built Model 3. They have gotten better, but some people have significant issues to this day.
unless they've changed the stock in the showroom in the last 2 months, then this is a false assertion.
Exactly. If x chip can do the job and then some, who cares if they have one 4 times as powerful? The car has many parts...
The showroom comments are true for the US cars, but the China made ones are impeccable.
2018
Even 10 years ago, normal cars had doors that line up, and proper paint jobs.
Turns out that the average consumer of $40k+ EVs doesn’t give a shit about minor cosmetic issues if the rest of the car is years ahead of the competition. Maybe there is a lesson in there about always questioning priorities to ensure they are inline with the market.
There are other good EVs, and more in the pipeline. I think it would be more accurate to say that Tesla fans don't care much about minor cosmetic issues, because ... they're fans. This makes sense.
Drive a Tesla, I bet you'll find things you like that are way more important than minor cosmetic issues, which seems unlikely.
Sure when making cars at 5k a week or more, there's some mistakes. A friend had a piece of trim misaligned. Tesla came out, on site, and fixed it. He's pretty happy.
Sure when making cars at 5k a week or more, there's some mistakes. A friend had a piece of trim misaligned. Tesla came out, on site, and fixed it. He's pretty happy.
This is a brand new car company that has built manufacturing from scratch. 10 years ago, car companies had been manufacturing cars for decades. This stuff doesn't happen overnight.
Ah ok, this justifies luxury prices then. I mean early adopter surcharges.
I don’t plan on buying a Tesla anytime soon, but the amount of critics that seem to hate everything they do is stunning to me. They are producing an electric car you can buy. They basically forced other companies to produce electric cars you can buy. It’s awesome. Be a little kid again for just a minute...
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"They are producing an electric car you can buy. They basically forced other companies to produce electric cars you can buy. It’s awesome. Be a little kid again for just a minute..."
This seems like a proverbial "reality distortion field" to me. The Tesla model 3 came out about 7 years after the Nissan Leaf, didn't it? And given a reasonable budget, it's arguably still not an example of a car "you can buy".
Yes, there were Teslas before the model 3, but there were also electric cars from other manufacturers for many years.
This seems like a proverbial "reality distortion field" to me. The Tesla model 3 came out about 7 years after the Nissan Leaf, didn't it? And given a reasonable budget, it's arguably still not an example of a car "you can buy".
Yes, there were Teslas before the model 3, but there were also electric cars from other manufacturers for many years.
TBH, I think the idea that the Leaf from 7 years ago is in the same segment requires some distortion of reality. The Leaf is not nearly as sporty, had a much lower range, and also had a much less reliable battery.
The modern Leaf fixes these problems by being as expensive as a Model 3, and its still slower.
The modern Leaf fixes these problems by being as expensive as a Model 3, and its still slower.
It's not in the same segment, but it's in the segment people pretend the model 3 is in - an electric car for the ordinary person.
The modern leaf is close to $10,000 cheaper than a Model 3. $31600 vs $39990.
At $31k, the Leaf does not have fast charging and has a range of 149 miles. Want "Quick" charging at a peak rate of 50KW? That's the $34k Leaf, which still has a range of 149 miles. Granted, this comes with a tax break, but comparing MSRP to MSRP, the SR Model 3 looks like the better deal at 220 miles of range.
To get to 226 miles of range with the Leaf puts you at $38k. To also get intelligent cruise (standard on the SR+ Model 3 at 40k), you will need another couple thousand dollars on the Leaf.
The tax break and dealer negotiation do make the Leaf cheaper, but the list price alone really doesn't.
To get to 226 miles of range with the Leaf puts you at $38k. To also get intelligent cruise (standard on the SR+ Model 3 at 40k), you will need another couple thousand dollars on the Leaf.
The tax break and dealer negotiation do make the Leaf cheaper, but the list price alone really doesn't.
It's absolutely an early-adopter surcharge. At luxury prices, because that's the only way to start a completely new car manufacturer at this scale.
Most new car companies are small affairs that hand-build fairly simple cars at luxury prices from their garage. They get away with it because they offer something unique. So does Tesla, only they try to do it at scale.
Most new car companies are small affairs that hand-build fairly simple cars at luxury prices from their garage. They get away with it because they offer something unique. So does Tesla, only they try to do it at scale.
It's not like this wasn't a publicly known fact, a strategy they officially wrote about.
Pretty sure the Roadster and the Model S were the luxury cars, and the Model 3 was supposed to be the affordable, non-luxury one.
Roadster 1.0 definitely was not a luxury car. It was just a proof of concept to show that an EV could be made that doesn't suck. It got attention and investors to fund the development of the Model S.
It’s in the same price range as an Audi A4, Mercedes C300, BMW i3, Audi TT, and Lexus ES. It’s an entry level luxury car. It’s twice as expensive as a Volkswagen Jetta, Toyota Corolla, or Honda Civic.
Yes, true. But generally electrics are much cheaper to own. Assume 12k miles a year and figure the cost to own for 10 years. Might be higher than the corolla or civic, but similar or better than the accord or camry. Generally it will be quicker, quieter, and safer than the competition and most (that can) would rather plug in at home than regularly visit gas stations.
So model 3 might be a luxury car, but the cost to own is clearly lower than any of the luxury cars you mention, except the BMW i3.
So model 3 might be a luxury car, but the cost to own is clearly lower than any of the luxury cars you mention, except the BMW i3.
A Camry costs around $24,000. $16,000 worth of gas, at $2.4 per gallon, times the EPA 34mpg combined gas mileage of the 2020 Camry, is good for over 200,000 miles. And that's assuming that the power to charge your car is completely free--it isn't, even though it's less than the price of gas on a per-mile basis.
Around $24k, good luck finding one of those on the lot. At toyota.com the Camry pictured is $35,555.
Over 200k miles How much will you spend on brake pads? Brake Discs? Gas? How about the scheduled 40 Oil changes?
How about things outside of the regular maintenance? Belts? Catalytic converts? Timing chain? Engine mounts? Head gaskets? Spark plugs? Clutch?
How many miles will you burn driving to/from gas stations?
How much of your time worth finding, using, and returning from gas stations? Do you really want to visit a smelly gas station covered with signs about the cancer it causes (in California anyways)?
Sure a Tesla over 200k miles will burn a fair amount of power around 50,000 kwh (75 kwh per 300 miles or so). But the other consumables are few. Sure wipers, tires (replacement and rotation), cabin filters, windshield fluid, etc. But generally the electric motors have few parts, are extremely reliable, and don't require any regularly scheduled maintenance.
I've had 2 Subarus and a low end Acura Integra. And most maintenance I've had (except tires/and wipers) was for something that didn't exist on an electric car. Timing chains, spark plugs, oil changes, head gasket, catalytic converter, engine mounts, clutch, etc.
Over 200k miles How much will you spend on brake pads? Brake Discs? Gas? How about the scheduled 40 Oil changes?
How about things outside of the regular maintenance? Belts? Catalytic converts? Timing chain? Engine mounts? Head gaskets? Spark plugs? Clutch?
How many miles will you burn driving to/from gas stations?
How much of your time worth finding, using, and returning from gas stations? Do you really want to visit a smelly gas station covered with signs about the cancer it causes (in California anyways)?
Sure a Tesla over 200k miles will burn a fair amount of power around 50,000 kwh (75 kwh per 300 miles or so). But the other consumables are few. Sure wipers, tires (replacement and rotation), cabin filters, windshield fluid, etc. But generally the electric motors have few parts, are extremely reliable, and don't require any regularly scheduled maintenance.
I've had 2 Subarus and a low end Acura Integra. And most maintenance I've had (except tires/and wipers) was for something that didn't exist on an electric car. Timing chains, spark plugs, oil changes, head gasket, catalytic converter, engine mounts, clutch, etc.
And the Model 3 can run up to almost $60k so let’s be fair and talk about the base model for each, okay? We’re talking about a price difference of $16,000 over a $24,000 car, and if you think a Toyota of all brands is going to require $16,000 worth of maintenance more than the Model 3, I would really like to know what that number is based upon.
Since 2006, in fact, if I remember correctly.
What is your time estimate for a company to fix their assembly alignment and paint issues versus the technologies being years behind in a car? That’s the point here.
I don't know much about cars manufacturing, but it sounds easier to source powerful/recent chips than ensuring all of your factories produce high quality mechanical parts.
> Even a budget Kia has better build quality than this.
Perhaps ironically, Kia has really upped their game in the past few years, to the point where I'd argue they aren't a good example for this comparison.
Perhaps ironically, Kia has really upped their game in the past few years, to the point where I'd argue they aren't a good example for this comparison.
Yet most cars you buy today don't even have Wifi - a technology that's been around for over 20 years. There's no API for controlling them apart from a CAN bus which is barely documented, not wireless, not routable over networks, can't even deliver video feeds, and dates from 1986.
It feels like car technology stopped when the generation of those born in the 40's retired. Ever since then, younger generations have been focussed on the internet, computers and phones, and the car has become a tool like a pencil - it works well enough, and new models only see incremental changes.
It feels like car technology stopped when the generation of those born in the 40's retired. Ever since then, younger generations have been focussed on the internet, computers and phones, and the car has become a tool like a pencil - it works well enough, and new models only see incremental changes.
> There's no API for controlling them apart from a CAN bus which is barely documented, not wireless,
The fact that the CAN bus is not wireless is rather a feature in terms of safety.
The fact that the CAN bus is not wireless is rather a feature in terms of safety.
They also do weird stuff like having on bus for the safety critical systems and another for fun stuff like the window lifter. Sometimes the infotainment uses a third bus! /s
Most modern luxury cars have wireless diagnostics don't they? I believe BMW does at least. Should we shy away from them?
> Yet most cars you buy today don't even have Wifi (...). There's no API for controlling them apart from a CAN bus which is barely documented, not wireless, not routable over networks, can't even deliver video feeds, and dates from 1986.
On the one hand - and thank God; routing car controls over networks by default sounds like a tremendously bad idea.
On the other hand - while a lucky accident in case of cars, modern electronic devices also don't have these, but for different reasons. When was the last time you could make your phone call people and send text messages over wireless connection, via an API built into the phone? Last time I remember being able to easily do it was in the feature phone era.
Modern hardware is increasingly controllable through hidden, restricted, undocumented APIs, or public APIs that require installing third-party software, go through third-party servers, and involve signing some contract or accepting some ToS. That same API-providing-software then proceeds to exfiltrate any and all data it can get its hands on. I do not want any of that in a car.
On the one hand - and thank God; routing car controls over networks by default sounds like a tremendously bad idea.
On the other hand - while a lucky accident in case of cars, modern electronic devices also don't have these, but for different reasons. When was the last time you could make your phone call people and send text messages over wireless connection, via an API built into the phone? Last time I remember being able to easily do it was in the feature phone era.
Modern hardware is increasingly controllable through hidden, restricted, undocumented APIs, or public APIs that require installing third-party software, go through third-party servers, and involve signing some contract or accepting some ToS. That same API-providing-software then proceeds to exfiltrate any and all data it can get its hands on. I do not want any of that in a car.
I do remember talking about routing CAN messages over wireless in automotive standards meetings about 20 years ago. You would need to do something like this if we wanted to increase traffic density by creating linked "road trains" of cars that would all brake together. There was also the feeling that California might require a wireless connection to be able to do continuous emissions monitoring.
> There's no API for controlling them apart from a CAN bus which is barely documented, not wireless, not routable over networks, can't even deliver video feeds, and dates from 1986.
Is it ironic that this post was posted using tcp/ip dating from much before 1986.
Yes, it would be nice if it was open sourced or documented outside obd2 interpreters. (Though much of it is documented for an industry insider paying fees) or if it openly supported higher bandwidth.
No reason why a 20'x8' low voltage system needs wireless, especially given that similar systems often exist < 1' a way.
Is it ironic that this post was posted using tcp/ip dating from much before 1986.
Yes, it would be nice if it was open sourced or documented outside obd2 interpreters. (Though much of it is documented for an industry insider paying fees) or if it openly supported higher bandwidth.
No reason why a 20'x8' low voltage system needs wireless, especially given that similar systems often exist < 1' a way.
>It feels like car technology stopped when the generation of those born in the 40's retired. Ever since then, younger generations have been focussed on the internet, computers and phones, and the car has become a tool like a pencil - it works well enough, and new models only see incremental changes.
What kind of "car technology" are you talking about? It sounds like you're talking about traditional tech, not tech that increases the ability of the driver on the road.
What kind of "car technology" are you talking about? It sounds like you're talking about traditional tech, not tech that increases the ability of the driver on the road.
> Yet most cars you buy today don't even have Wifi
Every single GM, but who is counting. And I bet other manufacturers as well.
Every single GM, but who is counting. And I bet other manufacturers as well.
Article praises Tesla's custom AI chip. It is something many criticize as a waste of development resources, while they could have used off-the-shelf components for the same task.
Tesla's real advantage is their battery production. No one else can compete with them on battery price or production volume at a similar quality: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/teslas-competitors-play-catc...
Tesla's real advantage is their battery production. No one else can compete with them on battery price or production volume at a similar quality: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/teslas-competitors-play-catc...
> they could have used off-the-shelf components for the same task.
They did use off-the-shelf components. They performed poorly and they resulted to developing a custom die with the right components to handle the task of computer vision. They explicitly stated this in multiple interviews. The off-the-shelf solution was crap.
They did use off-the-shelf components. They performed poorly and they resulted to developing a custom die with the right components to handle the task of computer vision. They explicitly stated this in multiple interviews. The off-the-shelf solution was crap.
AI/ML components change rapidly. What happens if they decide to use an entirely different approach. They develop a new chip? Still seems excessive to develop custom chips for unfinished/experimental tech like self-driving: https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/24/18514308/tesla-full-self-...
Point is they are doing it. Tesla does it. Apple does it. Microsoft does it. They are all developing their on hardware, and it's paying off, especially in Apple's and Tesla's use case. Research and development is the cornerstone of new innovation. Who cares if it's new tech. Not sure what you mean by "unfinished". They have a product that works. It's new and could use improvements, but Point is, they are doing it and winning. We can't sit around and wait for Ford and GMC, but these guys are being ran by dinosaurs. Stuck in the stone age, waiting for ICE to make a comeback. Here's the crutch of it all, ICE is pretty much out, with the old waterfall model, dead, old tech, EV is far more simple and a heck of a lot better. This whole ICE mentality where you release a car and it's "complete", has to go. This is why we have 'recalls'. Your car should continue to receive updates and improve as you drive it off the lot. Security updates are necessary, UI updates are necessary, performance and economy updates are necessary.
> This is why we have 'recalls'. Your car should continue to receive updates and improve as you drive it off the lot. Security updates are necessary, UI updates are necessary, performance and economy updates are necessary.
Did you ever try to rollout change to millions of units of anything, with individual owners of each item, operating in vastly different environments and with additional modifications from those owners?
Rolling updates is A HUGE issue, if you need reliability. It’s not a random app. It’s, for majority of the people, second most expensive purchase in their live (only behind a house). Messing up with that is very very risky.
Did you ever try to rollout change to millions of units of anything, with individual owners of each item, operating in vastly different environments and with additional modifications from those owners?
Rolling updates is A HUGE issue, if you need reliability. It’s not a random app. It’s, for majority of the people, second most expensive purchase in their live (only behind a house). Messing up with that is very very risky.
This is less of a risk than it might appear. To be sure, it would be expensive to replace the computer part of the entire installed fleet. But the (potentially) full self-driving option is very richly priced, and sells with an incremental margin of 100% when component replacements are excluded. The sensor & computer package are included with all production cars, regardless of whether the FSD option is purchased.
Additionally, Tesla still grows their sales and customer base exponentially. This means that most significant changes in strategy during the production ramp-up will require (in the form of deprecation of now-obsolete production resources) only a small fraction of the investments required to achieve their full, steady-state production capacity.
The same argument holds for the potential case of major changes in battery technology. (Replacements of current fleet excluded, which would not happen for batteries). If Tesla's current battery technology is obsolete in 5-10 years, that's not a very big deal as their sales are expected to be a multiple of today's by then, and the new technology would be phased in during the expected production ramp. (If Tesla fails to grow by a multiple of today's sales, they have largely failed).
Additionally, Tesla still grows their sales and customer base exponentially. This means that most significant changes in strategy during the production ramp-up will require (in the form of deprecation of now-obsolete production resources) only a small fraction of the investments required to achieve their full, steady-state production capacity.
The same argument holds for the potential case of major changes in battery technology. (Replacements of current fleet excluded, which would not happen for batteries). If Tesla's current battery technology is obsolete in 5-10 years, that's not a very big deal as their sales are expected to be a multiple of today's by then, and the new technology would be phased in during the expected production ramp. (If Tesla fails to grow by a multiple of today's sales, they have largely failed).
Once you cross the 1+ million chip threshold, custom chips stop being such a big deal.
Based on their AI chip presentation, the important thing is that they have a software/hardware integrated design relationship. Your comment assumes they do this once and never again.
I seriously doubt Tesla is not actively improving the chip, and if they need a fundamentally new software approach, then they have the process/iteration loop established.
I seriously doubt Tesla is not actively improving the chip, and if they need a fundamentally new software approach, then they have the process/iteration loop established.
[deleted]
If it was so bad, why did tesla claim for years that all their cars were shipping with sufficient onboard capability for eventual "full self driving?"
They didn't. They had been saying for years that it would require a computer upgrade that could be done with a service visit, and that the service visit would be free for people who purchased the "FSD" option.
They absolutely did, and then changed the story when they announced they were building HW3.
> All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
> Oct 19, 2016
> To make sense of all of this data, a new onboard computer with more than 40 times the computing power of the previous generation runs the new Tesla-developed neural net for vision, sonar and radar processing software
^ this refers to the nvidia thing 'onepremise says was too bad for the job.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now...
https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13340938/tesla-autopilot...
> All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
> Oct 19, 2016
> To make sense of all of this data, a new onboard computer with more than 40 times the computing power of the previous generation runs the new Tesla-developed neural net for vision, sonar and radar processing software
^ this refers to the nvidia thing 'onepremise says was too bad for the job.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now...
https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13340938/tesla-autopilot...
It is a fair point that they didn't say it on day 1. Having said that, they've been talking about the potential for computer upgrades since at least 2017: https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/9/16119746/tesla-self-drivin...
I don't have time to dig it all up, but they were talking about the potential for computer upgrades as far back as 2016 as well: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/789008557341454336 (though not for pre-2016 vehicles).
I can see where people who don't follow the company closely wouldn't have been aware of this, though. And, obviously there have been plenty of false and misleading statements made in this area.
I don't have time to dig it all up, but they were talking about the potential for computer upgrades as far back as 2016 as well: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/789008557341454336 (though not for pre-2016 vehicles).
I can see where people who don't follow the company closely wouldn't have been aware of this, though. And, obviously there have been plenty of false and misleading statements made in this area.
What was wrong with using FPGAs?
Power and capability. Custom silicon means they can build the chip with all of the chip's surface being used for things their software needs (ie. extra surface for parallel computing and zero surface for unneeded features). They can also tune the chip with ops/watt in mind. Nvidia has touted their A.I. chips being x10 more powerful, but they also took twice the power to do it [1]. For an electric vehicle that lives on only the charge stored in its batteries, you want to use exactly as much power as you need to get the job done and no more.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19732974
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19732974
Oh, the article gives numbers!
Tesla: $158/kWh Competitors: "more than" $200/kWh
Model 3 SR+ has a 54 kWh battery.
Tesla advantage = (200 - 158) * 54 = $2268 per car.
Yes, an advantage today, but not too bad.
Tesla: $158/kWh Competitors: "more than" $200/kWh
Model 3 SR+ has a 54 kWh battery.
Tesla advantage = (200 - 158) * 54 = $2268 per car.
Yes, an advantage today, but not too bad.
Volkswagen is paying less than $100 per kWh for their MEB cars:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/08/business/volkswagen-trade...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/08/business/volkswagen-trade...
I don't know if it's true. People tend to conflate the price for cells with those of modules and entire battery packs. IIRC, the holy grail is < $100/kWh for a battery pack.
The Maxwell Technologies battery technology is allegedly 10x cheaper to manufacture due to no oven or liquids and as a result, and also lighter. Elon says the "holy grail" of batteries is being able to develop an automotive grade battery at <= $100/kWh. The Maxwell tech looks to be below that, but we'll find out specifics on the upcoming Battery Investor day.
Fingers crossed that the rumours are accurate. There are a lot of "coming soon" battery improvements that aren't nearly as impressive when (if) they finally arrive.
Be lovely for one to actually live up to them.
For the Tesla Semi and Cybertruck to not be huge loss leaders for Tesla, they have to have made a fundamental breakthrough in battery cost. I'm anxious to see what they come up with.
Just the super capacitor allows for much better durability of all battery technology, especially in normal driving conditions.
Maxwell made ultracapacitors not supercapacitors. Elon has stated that those weren't useful at all for Tesla, but their dry battery electrode manufacturing process stands to be the holy grail. This is what I was referring to.
Is it though? When they started development, there was no such chip specialized for NN tasks. NVIDIA chips are more general purpose and uses a lot more power. The FSD chip has an instruction set of around 18 instructions and is highly specialized.
I would argue this is Tesla's real business - battery production. I don't believe they intend to stay in the auto market forever. They're in the market to create demand for quality electric cars, goad the traditional auto makers into making them, and then selling those traditional auto makers the batteries they need to make them work well. I believe that is Tesla's long-term business plan.
Batteries are a commodity, so I doubt Tesla would want to reduce themselves to an OEM and shrink their margins. Their energy business might eventually be bigger than their automotive one, but either way I think they will continue selling vertically integrated products.
Cars are a commodity, the real money is in providing the finance for them.
Batteries with 20% more watt hours for the weight than the rest of the market are certainly not a commodity.
Are batteries a commodity or are we just assuming that?
batteries are absolutely not a commodity at this time. every other manufacturer is held back by not enough battery capacity. Even the biggest companies are held back.
Yeah, until batteries are traded the same way actual commodities are they are not commodities. A good way to tell whether something is a commodity or not is whether there are strong brands in the space. I can’t go onto a major exchange and speculatively trade lithium battery cells.
Battery production seems like a problem that can be solved right now with money. VW and Toyota could partner with a 3rd party (like Tesla and Panasonic) and build factories.
Custom silicon seems like a much harder problem for VM/Toyota. Unless a supplier can build something for them I don’t see either company innovating like Tesla. Basically Tesla’s secret sauce is the Tech not the EV components.
Custom silicon seems like a much harder problem for VM/Toyota. Unless a supplier can build something for them I don’t see either company innovating like Tesla. Basically Tesla’s secret sauce is the Tech not the EV components.
It isn't just production, but is also the chemistry. Tesla has the lowest amount of cobalt and nickel in their batteries of any battery manufacturer in the world. It makes their batteries cheaper, but also use less rare earth minerals (which are difficult to get ahold of at their scales). Tesla isn't sharing their chemistry, which is demonstrably better than anything LG Chem or Samsung, etc has been able to come up with. As a result, their batteries are actually better.
You can scale up manufacturing of inferior batteries, but you still will have an inferior product.
You can scale up manufacturing of inferior batteries, but you still will have an inferior product.
No one _wants_ Tesla's chemistry. Tesla is the only automaker using the NCA chemistry. Sure, they're improving NCA quite admirably, but every other automaker would rather use and develop NMC.
Traditional automakers would rather have batteries that don't easily overheat or catch fire when damaged (NMC) than cheaper batteries (NCA).
Traditional automakers would rather have batteries that don't easily overheat or catch fire when damaged (NMC) than cheaper batteries (NCA).
tesla has proven by time that their batteries are excellent, last longer than competitors and have superior battery heating, cooling, and safety systems. Any car can catch on fire (they are all designed and built by humans).
It's just one example, but here is a new porsche ev that caught fire https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/porsche-taycan-fire-burning-g.... Does porsche use nmc batteries? What is the problem with nca, where from experience the overall product is superior to all comers?
It's just one example, but here is a new porsche ev that caught fire https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/porsche-taycan-fire-burning-g.... Does porsche use nmc batteries? What is the problem with nca, where from experience the overall product is superior to all comers?
> Tesla isn't sharing their chemistry
Isn't it Panasonic that manufactures the batteries and sells them to Tesla? Can't they sell the same batteries to everyone else too?
Isn't it Panasonic that manufactures the batteries and sells them to Tesla? Can't they sell the same batteries to everyone else too?
Tesla develops the chemistry and has Panasonic manufacture the cells. Tesla builds the battery packs from Panasonic cells.
The intellectual property for the chemistry is 100% Tesla’s and can not be reused by Panasonic for other manufacturers. In places where Panasonic builds batteries for other manufacturers, they use more traditional chemistry that includes more rare earth metals. Tesla’s chemistry is patented and can’t be duplicated. It is one of their several “moats”.
The intellectual property for the chemistry is 100% Tesla’s and can not be reused by Panasonic for other manufacturers. In places where Panasonic builds batteries for other manufacturers, they use more traditional chemistry that includes more rare earth metals. Tesla’s chemistry is patented and can’t be duplicated. It is one of their several “moats”.
And right now Tesla / Panasonic is maxed out in their battery production (still a scale that all other manufacturers fundamentally don't have the ability to do, much less profitably).
If/when Tesla increases battery production beyond its storage and car/semi lines of business, they will probably acquire/merge other car companies on the cheap.
The only thing that can eliminate Tesla's advantage is a catch-up solid battery tech that everyone has access to, and even then Tesla will have lots of infrastructure advantages.
If/when Tesla increases battery production beyond its storage and car/semi lines of business, they will probably acquire/merge other car companies on the cheap.
The only thing that can eliminate Tesla's advantage is a catch-up solid battery tech that everyone has access to, and even then Tesla will have lots of infrastructure advantages.
That’s not true. Panasonic disagreed with you in their latest earnings call. They’re ramping up for more production. I think Elon has stated they can ramp up 30-50% with the existing space.
Volkswagen is paying less than $100 per kWh for the batteries in their MEB cars. The mid-range Volkswagen ID.3 achieves slightly greater range at a lower price point than a Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus.
The supposed battery advantage isn't really there. So hopefully the Maxwell stuff is better.
The supposed battery advantage isn't really there. So hopefully the Maxwell stuff is better.
>Custom silicon seems like a much harder problem for VM/Toyota
What evidence is there that custom silicon has any advantage in the self-driving race, let alone in cost competitiveness?
What evidence is there that custom silicon has any advantage in the self-driving race, let alone in cost competitiveness?
None. And this is exactly the problem: Tesla might have a nice piece of silicon there, but that doesn't solve the problem of still being far, far away from having a working algorithm for level 5 self driving. They have a supercomputer in their cars, but can only run minesweeper on it, so to speak.
Their hardware (maybe, at best) solves one of the easy pieces of the self-driving puzzle. It doesn't get them any closer to solving the hard parts. But it sure helps from a marketing perspective, which is kind of important if you want to continue selling a $6000 feature that essentially is just a promise for the future and thus requires buyers to "believe".
Their hardware (maybe, at best) solves one of the easy pieces of the self-driving puzzle. It doesn't get them any closer to solving the hard parts. But it sure helps from a marketing perspective, which is kind of important if you want to continue selling a $6000 feature that essentially is just a promise for the future and thus requires buyers to "believe".
It’s both.
Continued improvements to battery tech will bring the costs down for Tesla which is important for them to do if they want to succeed.
Custom hardware and software will also give them cost advantage and help them in the long term.
Continued improvements to battery tech will bring the costs down for Tesla which is important for them to do if they want to succeed.
Custom hardware and software will also give them cost advantage and help them in the long term.
Both problems could be solved with money, but according to the article it seems the giants are refusing to move due to historical relationships (which tesla does not have).
> Unless a supplier can build something for them I don’t see either company innovating like Tesla.
Mobileye?
Mobileye?
tesla used mobileye early, then intel bought mobileye so t doesn't use them anymore
Tesla doesnt use mobileye after their unauthorized firmware modifications cut drivers head. Mobileye was the party backing out of the deal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mobileye-ends-partnership-with-...
" Mobileye NV said it would no longer provide its computer chips and algorithms to Tesla after a current contract ends due to disagreements about how the technology was deployed. Mobileye provides core technology for Tesla’s Autopilot system, which allows cars to drive themselves in limited conditions."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mobileye-ends-partnership-with-...
" Mobileye NV said it would no longer provide its computer chips and algorithms to Tesla after a current contract ends due to disagreements about how the technology was deployed. Mobileye provides core technology for Tesla’s Autopilot system, which allows cars to drive themselves in limited conditions."
Off the shelf parts can beat a custom ASIC? That is news to me.
Remember this isn't about the power of the ASIC processing, it is about minimizing the power consumption of the chip so the EV range is affected as little as possible.
Remember this isn't about the power of the ASIC processing, it is about minimizing the power consumption of the chip so the EV range is affected as little as possible.
>Tesla's real advantage is their battery production
Battery pack production. Tesla purchases batteries from Panasonic and LG (and thus is susceptible to that supply).
Battery pack production. Tesla purchases batteries from Panasonic and LG (and thus is susceptible to that supply).
They also produce the cells (though it might be Panasonic's tech): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Nevada
> the production rate of battery cells in the Gigafactory had reached 3.5 million '2170' cells per day.
> the production rate of battery cells in the Gigafactory had reached 3.5 million '2170' cells per day.
The gigafactory is a joint venture with Panasonic. There is literally a line on the floor that denotes the Tesla side and the Panasonic side.
Tesla will make their own cells soon.
plus superchargers, engine efficiency, not being held back by supporting legacy car service (aka dealer profit center), no dealers, billions more miles to train their ml models on self driving, customer satisfaction
Isn't Tesla getting batteries from Panasonic? because I had the impression tesla has now a scale advantage.
Gigafactor is also producing the battery cells (though it might be Panasonic's tech) as well as the packs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Nevada
> the production rate of battery cells in the Gigafactory had reached 3.5 million '2170' cells per day.
> the production rate of battery cells in the Gigafactory had reached 3.5 million '2170' cells per day.
6 years ahead electronics here means AI ASICs.
I thought that was weird, I know Toyota cars have radar and I’m not sure about Teslas. IMO as an armchair observer the sensor array is far more interesting than any of this.
Personally, if I were to buy another car (and hopefully I don’t have to any time soon) I’d want the processing electronics to be off the shelf not weird custom stuff that’s going to have all kinds of corporate social crap attached to it.
Edit: to make it clear, I’m not saying one manufacturer is better than the other. I’m upset about this because it’s (IMO) more of a marketing thing (and maybe a way to have some leverage over 3rd party repair shops) and not really a technical improvement. There’s been a lot of weird social stuff masquerading as technological advancements everywhere. these have resulted in some small groups of people abusing computers to manipulate everyone else and once you recognize that pattern you get very cynical with articles like op.
I thought that was weird, I know Toyota cars have radar and I’m not sure about Teslas. IMO as an armchair observer the sensor array is far more interesting than any of this.
Personally, if I were to buy another car (and hopefully I don’t have to any time soon) I’d want the processing electronics to be off the shelf not weird custom stuff that’s going to have all kinds of corporate social crap attached to it.
Edit: to make it clear, I’m not saying one manufacturer is better than the other. I’m upset about this because it’s (IMO) more of a marketing thing (and maybe a way to have some leverage over 3rd party repair shops) and not really a technical improvement. There’s been a lot of weird social stuff masquerading as technological advancements everywhere. these have resulted in some small groups of people abusing computers to manipulate everyone else and once you recognize that pattern you get very cynical with articles like op.
> the sensor array is far more interesting than any of this.
8 cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors, and 1 forward-facing radar.[0]
[0] https://www.tesla.com/autopilot
8 cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors, and 1 forward-facing radar.[0]
[0] https://www.tesla.com/autopilot
Even with all that, it still ping-pongs with some regularity and has trouble with on- and off-ramps. And no top-down camera view, which even a Nissan Rogue has!
I'm not bitter, though. I knew what I was getting into when I dropped nearly 60K on this thing. But still, would like them to catch up in some areas they are lagging in.
I'm not bitter, though. I knew what I was getting into when I dropped nearly 60K on this thing. But still, would like them to catch up in some areas they are lagging in.
all this and they still routinely rear end parked cars
automotive electronics has a different set of requirements from normal electronics. Most ecus are designed by Bosch, Delphi or some big company in the field.
It’s eight cameras, you can’t stream a million cars times 8 cameras at full resolution times 24 hours a day, back to the mothership over 4G. It’d be way too expensive.
You need to do your learning on the car and stream back the error component to the mothership.
You need to do your learning on the car and stream back the error component to the mothership.
>I’m upset about this because it’s (IMO) more of a marketing thing (and maybe a way to have some leverage over 3rd party repair shops) and not really a technical improvement.
The number of "tech people" that think Tesla has some chip building advantage over the likes of companies like NVIDIA is astonishing.
Tesla's marketing compares their chip to older NVIDIA boards. NVIDIA has better tech available off-the-shelf:
https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-fires-back-at-tesla-c...
The number of "tech people" that think Tesla has some chip building advantage over the likes of companies like NVIDIA is astonishing.
Tesla's marketing compares their chip to older NVIDIA boards. NVIDIA has better tech available off-the-shelf:
https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-fires-back-at-tesla-c...
Yeah, tesla is dancing at to many marriages. AI chips, self-driving, automation. Instead of focusing on mass-producing EVs. had they done just that, developing a top notch EV (which they did) and leverage centuries worth of automotive massproduction for everything not purely EV related we would never have had any discussion about short sellers. But they didn't, so the jury is still out on it if ask me.
I have no idea what they should do/should have done, but if your advice was correct, then it seems like existing manufacturers could have done the same. If so, then how would Tesla compete? If they couldn't, as they seem to have struggled, why would Tesla be different?
Maybe the secret is marketing, and the extra engineering is kind of like a MacGuffin. Essential, but the details don't matter.
Maybe the secret is marketing, and the extra engineering is kind of like a MacGuffin. Essential, but the details don't matter.
Traditional car makers have to develop a decent EV, there Tesla has had a huge head start. Tesla has to figure out automotive mass production, there the situation is the other way round.
Now, traditional car maker are catching up in terms of EVs. While Tesla is improving on the production side. So Tesla's window of opportunity is closing, slowly but surely. Marketing obviously has an impact in that as well.
So Tesla risks, and has risked, a huge window of opportunity. Simply by ignoring the hard learned automotive lessons because of disruption, Musks genius and such. Which was a stupid thing to do, Tesla had the automotive world on EV tech, throwing that away... is stupid.
Now, traditional car maker are catching up in terms of EVs. While Tesla is improving on the production side. So Tesla's window of opportunity is closing, slowly but surely. Marketing obviously has an impact in that as well.
So Tesla risks, and has risked, a huge window of opportunity. Simply by ignoring the hard learned automotive lessons because of disruption, Musks genius and such. Which was a stupid thing to do, Tesla had the automotive world on EV tech, throwing that away... is stupid.
Where you're defining better as faster, however, it uses enormously more energy, which impacts overall driving range. It doesn't need to be faster past a certain point. They've already got enough bandwidth to run the entire set of self driving neural networks in duplicate at production speed on the current FSD hardware version 3 computer. There is a point of diminishing returns wrt speed and I think we're quickly approaching if not already surpassing it. Now it is down to efficiency, which the Nvidia solution gets utterly spanked by Tesla's computer on. Ever ran CUDA simulations? GPUs always use enormous amounts of power to do anything, but they're incredible at floating point math.
It that just enormously more energy if it was running in a portable device or is that actually enormously more energy when running off half a metric ton of traction battery? Nvidia has plenty of experience in scaling their chips down to a wide range of performance/energy tradeoffs.
And nvidia’s faster neural network solution they say is faster than Tesla’s
Chip still uses loads more power than Tesla’s chip does.
Does Tesla really care that much about efficiency? Sentry mode chews through about 1 mile of range for every single hour it is active. My doorbell camera takes significantly less power to do motion detection than my Model 3 does.
Does your doorbell camera have one or eight cameras? The Model 3 has eight cameras. You’re comparing apples to orangutans.
You're fanboying for Tesla. The car is pulling as much juice as a gaming rig. The doorbell uses like three orders of magnitude less power.
And what do I get for all that power it's consuming? It routinely misses cars and people literally inches away. Sometimes it records, sometimes it doesn't. And lately my car has decided 90% of the time not to turn on the dashcam, though sentry mode activates pretty reliably. It's half-assed. Tesla needs fans to hold them accountable instead of white-knighting for them.
And what do I get for all that power it's consuming? It routinely misses cars and people literally inches away. Sometimes it records, sometimes it doesn't. And lately my car has decided 90% of the time not to turn on the dashcam, though sentry mode activates pretty reliably. It's half-assed. Tesla needs fans to hold them accountable instead of white-knighting for them.
You sidestepped my questions. Does your doorbell have one or eight cameras? Even if tesla did it as efficiently as your camera, it would be, at a minimum, eight times more energy. If they do anything fancy with a neural network (which they almost certainly do), they it might be another 2x the power. Then you have 10x the power which is one order of magnitude.
Quit making false comparisons to your crappy doorbell. It is very different and they're designed for very different things. They don't work the same.
Quit making false comparisons to your crappy doorbell. It is very different and they're designed for very different things. They don't work the same.
> You sidestepped my questions.
No they didn't. First off it doesn't need to use all eight cameras, but "three orders of magnitude" is obviously way more than 8x.
> If they do anything fancy with a neural network (which they almost certainly do), they it might be another 2x the power.
If it takes more power to do the same calculations, that's a bad thing, not a defense.
> Then you have 10x the power which is one order of magnitude.
"It does it super inefficiently, and then uses 10x power on top of that somehow" is awful!
Also you're rounding way down.
The comparison to the doorbell makes a lot of sense, and "not working the same" is irrelevant to the complaint.
No they didn't. First off it doesn't need to use all eight cameras, but "three orders of magnitude" is obviously way more than 8x.
> If they do anything fancy with a neural network (which they almost certainly do), they it might be another 2x the power.
If it takes more power to do the same calculations, that's a bad thing, not a defense.
> Then you have 10x the power which is one order of magnitude.
"It does it super inefficiently, and then uses 10x power on top of that somehow" is awful!
Also you're rounding way down.
The comparison to the doorbell makes a lot of sense, and "not working the same" is irrelevant to the complaint.
Perhaps that's the case but Nvidia can't compete in thermal efficiency.
"I’d want the processing electronics to be off the shelf not weird custom stuff that’s going to have all kinds of corporate social crap attached to it."
Off the shelf electronics are mutually exclusive of "all kinds of corporate social crap"? I would think the former is the most expedient way to deliver the latter.
Off the shelf electronics are mutually exclusive of "all kinds of corporate social crap"? I would think the former is the most expedient way to deliver the latter.
That’s my point yes.
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After Tesla's recent secondary offering perhaps they'll hire some experts away from the big automakers and build a new line to automaker standards. Teslas built to Japanese or European fit and finish standards with their already ahead and ever improving electronics would (IMHO) be unbeatable.
This has already happened at least once, I wouldn't expect revolutionary change from a repetition.
Note that the "we cannot do it" quote is not referring to the technology itself, but rather to the fact that to adopt Tesla's pattern, the legacy auto companies would need to ditch their supply chains. That's not something they can do without pissing off a lot of people.
I think they could easily piss off a lot of people, if it was important for the company.
What they can't do is become another kind of organization.
If new nimble competitors working in a new way appear, old companies, with vastly more money but a settled bureaucracy, just slowly die, rather than adapt.
What they can't do is become another kind of organization.
If new nimble competitors working in a new way appear, old companies, with vastly more money but a settled bureaucracy, just slowly die, rather than adapt.
They're not going to want to piss people off because it's viewed as an inherently destructive act. Instead they'd look for more positive resolutions. I can only speak for one Big Japanese Car Company having worked in their corporate office in the decision-making department.
- They'll use Microsoft Sharepoint and Microsoft OneDrive for file and document management, not because they're better products but because Microsoft wishes that they don't use a competitor's products and Big Japanese Car Co respects the desires of their partners.
- After a demo between a new company with superior in-car tech and an old partner with inferior in-car tech, BJCC chooses the old in-car tech because once you're a partner with BJCC, BJCC takes care of you through the good and the bad.
- If you direct a meeting, whether small or large and you say something incorrect, the one person in the crowd that noticed your mistake won't say anything and will actually nod their head in agreement and respect. This is due to the saving-face aspect of the culture.
- Bringing others on board with a decision when you don't have access to the primary data or analytics is much easier when it involves copying a competitor. It also diffuses responsibility if things go south. Saying we did secret teardowns of a Tesla model 3s and are basing our design decisions off these teardowns means you can say it was Tesla's decision, not "my" decision.
On the other hand, BJCC has historically cared a lot more about not pissing off car owners by making more reliable vehicles at fair prices that are less likely to break down. For that reason, at the end of the day, I buy a BJCC car.
It's the old argument of individualism vs. collectivism. The right balance is probably some amount of both.
- They'll use Microsoft Sharepoint and Microsoft OneDrive for file and document management, not because they're better products but because Microsoft wishes that they don't use a competitor's products and Big Japanese Car Co respects the desires of their partners.
- After a demo between a new company with superior in-car tech and an old partner with inferior in-car tech, BJCC chooses the old in-car tech because once you're a partner with BJCC, BJCC takes care of you through the good and the bad.
- If you direct a meeting, whether small or large and you say something incorrect, the one person in the crowd that noticed your mistake won't say anything and will actually nod their head in agreement and respect. This is due to the saving-face aspect of the culture.
- Bringing others on board with a decision when you don't have access to the primary data or analytics is much easier when it involves copying a competitor. It also diffuses responsibility if things go south. Saying we did secret teardowns of a Tesla model 3s and are basing our design decisions off these teardowns means you can say it was Tesla's decision, not "my" decision.
On the other hand, BJCC has historically cared a lot more about not pissing off car owners by making more reliable vehicles at fair prices that are less likely to break down. For that reason, at the end of the day, I buy a BJCC car.
It's the old argument of individualism vs. collectivism. The right balance is probably some amount of both.
That's very interesting, but I think it says more about Japan than about big companies.
> What they can't do is become another kind of organization.
That's a big problem many companies are facing in this day and age.
For example traditional newspapers companies are transitioning to digital publishing. This not only impacts how content is published but also how content is produced for a different medium.
I heard a podcast a couple fo years ago with (I believe) the CTO of the NYT. He said that the digital part of the NYT was almost a different company altogether. In the past years I worked at a paper publishing/education company and that was my experience as well. I was in charge of the digital product dept and we were like a black box inside the company. Nobody there really understood how we worked.
That's a big problem many companies are facing in this day and age.
For example traditional newspapers companies are transitioning to digital publishing. This not only impacts how content is published but also how content is produced for a different medium.
I heard a podcast a couple fo years ago with (I believe) the CTO of the NYT. He said that the digital part of the NYT was almost a different company altogether. In the past years I worked at a paper publishing/education company and that was my experience as well. I was in charge of the digital product dept and we were like a black box inside the company. Nobody there really understood how we worked.
The biggest problem of old companies is that even their cash advantage is getting less useful as their market cap is going down relative to Tesla's.
Tesla with its valuation can afford to scale up aggressively as long as it can continue decreasing manufacturing prices with Wright's law.
Tesla with its valuation can afford to scale up aggressively as long as it can continue decreasing manufacturing prices with Wright's law.
The answer to this, I would think, would be to have a small part of the company whose soul purpose is to disrupt the larger company. Then Toyota and VW might have built Tesla in house without supply chain worries. When their in-house Tesla-like company proved a success, they could reasonably afford to upend their old supply chain: self-disruption.
Toyota has this with Toyota Connected, a wholly-owned subsidiary that's pushing software/mobility/advanced applications across the Toyota product lines.
They make it quite clear in their public conversations that Tesla-style innovation rates are the goal, but in private conversations lament that they're stuck working in a 3-year product cycle due to the innovation rates in their supply chains (as most of the specs and hardware are generated in collaboration with external suppliers).
As a sibling comment mentions, this structure also creates lots of resentment in some of the traditional Toyota departments who are being disrupted by this.
They make it quite clear in their public conversations that Tesla-style innovation rates are the goal, but in private conversations lament that they're stuck working in a 3-year product cycle due to the innovation rates in their supply chains (as most of the specs and hardware are generated in collaboration with external suppliers).
As a sibling comment mentions, this structure also creates lots of resentment in some of the traditional Toyota departments who are being disrupted by this.
When companies try to do this, the other divisions attempt to smoother the new division in the crib and typically succeed. If you had good internal politics, they wouldn't do this, but if you had good internal politics, you wouldn't need a new division either.
> but if you had good internal politics, you wouldn't need a new division either.
I don't know if I agree with this unless you mean to define "good internal politics" as internal politics that drives a company to self-disrupt.
As shown by the article, self-disruption isn't possible as a big company because the friction of changing things like supply chains and other capital. You really need to start another company that, in a sense, competes (and sometimes at least for a time complements) the larger company. Good internal politics would help to not squash internal competition, but it isn't, I think, enough to purposefully set up that competition.
I don't know if I agree with this unless you mean to define "good internal politics" as internal politics that drives a company to self-disrupt.
As shown by the article, self-disruption isn't possible as a big company because the friction of changing things like supply chains and other capital. You really need to start another company that, in a sense, competes (and sometimes at least for a time complements) the larger company. Good internal politics would help to not squash internal competition, but it isn't, I think, enough to purposefully set up that competition.
Maybe worth noting that GM tried this with it's Saturn brand - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_Corporation
It’s still a big deal to the wider auto industry to have an entire supply chain disrupted. Even if that doesn’t mean much to the end consumer when the big car companies switch to off the shelf computing.
Considering how much money went into the making of the real Tesla, is that really something these big auto-makers could have afforded?
Most of that money went into things the big auto makers already had rather than anything particularly unique to Tesla.
On the whole, fair point.
In particular, the article talk about supply line disruption. Rebuilding your supply lines means you can't use the existing ones, and that's certain not to be cheap either.
In particular, the article talk about supply line disruption. Rebuilding your supply lines means you can't use the existing ones, and that's certain not to be cheap either.
This is often referred to as a "skunkworks" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skunk_Works
So Tesla is doing what Clayton predicted twenty years back.
I don't know if he predicted that electric cars would follow the disruption pattern, but yes Clayton's theory seems to apply here in some sense.
For these sorts of problems I love to break out a comparison of Netflix vs Blockbuster. Blockbuster was incapable of competing with Netflix because of competing internal and external pressure. Blockbuster at its heart was a franchise, and to compete with Netflix they’d have to abandon their franchisees, and cut them out of deal.
Toyota is too dependent on their supply chain to piss them off by bringing too much in-house. Eventually they will get there but it’s going to be a slow delicate transition, because I don’t see Toyota taking a massive leap and reshaping the way they do things from top to bottom.
Toyota is too dependent on their supply chain to piss them off by bringing too much in-house. Eventually they will get there but it’s going to be a slow delicate transition, because I don’t see Toyota taking a massive leap and reshaping the way they do things from top to bottom.
This feels very much like a marketing fluff piece pushed by Tesla PR.
Take this gem: "Young companies like Tesla, on the other hand, are not shackled to suppliers and are free to pursue the best technologies available."
Try the automated windscreen wipers on any big car brand, they're mostly made by Bosch and they work, even on a 15 year old car. Then Tesla came along with their own approach, guess what, they didn't work for more than a year on any second generation model S because they switched from buying a working module to creating their own in software.
After having driven a model S for a while I'm very much a Tesla sceptic. Because I noticed I was accepting a lot of things from them that I would never have from BMW or Audi. When the "this is a cool innovation" feeling goes away, you're looking at a very mediocre car that can't compete in the price range that it's in.
Take this gem: "Young companies like Tesla, on the other hand, are not shackled to suppliers and are free to pursue the best technologies available."
Try the automated windscreen wipers on any big car brand, they're mostly made by Bosch and they work, even on a 15 year old car. Then Tesla came along with their own approach, guess what, they didn't work for more than a year on any second generation model S because they switched from buying a working module to creating their own in software.
After having driven a model S for a while I'm very much a Tesla sceptic. Because I noticed I was accepting a lot of things from them that I would never have from BMW or Audi. When the "this is a cool innovation" feeling goes away, you're looking at a very mediocre car that can't compete in the price range that it's in.
I used to be a BMW driver and then have been driving a model S for 4 years. I would say I receive WAY more things from Tesla that I ever did from BMW. My car today is actually better than the one I bought 4 years back. I remember when I bought my X5, the map was outdated the minute I stepped out of the dealer lot and needed a $200 CD based upgrade. BMW never improved a single feature in 4 years of ownership. The voice recognition sucked, the driver assistant didn't improve beyond basics, acceleration, efficiency didn't change, no new infotainment features were added etc etc. The story is fluff, but Tesla provides so much more to its customers than traditional branda
I don't think it is, there was an article a year or so ago where a famous detroit car expert, that specialised in tearing down cars and inspecting them did so for the Tesla.
What he said was that the electronics were light years ahead anything he had seen before, but he wasn't surprised given its a silicon valley car. The chassis on the other hand was way behind the likes of Toyoda.
I can understand that your mileage may have varied but this was through visually inspecting the electronics, not using them in action.
What he said was that the electronics were light years ahead anything he had seen before, but he wasn't surprised given its a silicon valley car. The chassis on the other hand was way behind the likes of Toyoda.
I can understand that your mileage may have varied but this was through visually inspecting the electronics, not using them in action.
I don't disagree that they've put much more advanced chips in their car, the point I disagree with is that it's "ahead by 6 years" and "others can't keep up due to supply chains" because Tesla's super advanced chips couldn't get something as simple as my automatic windscreen wipers to work while every other brand has them working fine.
The difference is that everyone just buys a simple moisture sensor and Tesla decided to go with a needlessly complex setup based on their cameras. Sure that requires a way more advanced image processing chip, an impressive software achievement in image processing etc.
However, from the consumer perspective (that matters much more if you sell millions of cars to the masses instead of a few hundred thousand to enthusiasts): They had no working automatic windscreen wipers, that puts them 15 to 20 years behind the others. Not 6 years ahead.
They really need to get better at the basics of car making quickly, before the likes of Ford, BMW, Volkswagen etc get good at building electric cars. I guess they have several years left to do it because the big guys move slow, but in their current state they're going to be in trouble no matter how advanced their CPU is.
The difference is that everyone just buys a simple moisture sensor and Tesla decided to go with a needlessly complex setup based on their cameras. Sure that requires a way more advanced image processing chip, an impressive software achievement in image processing etc.
However, from the consumer perspective (that matters much more if you sell millions of cars to the masses instead of a few hundred thousand to enthusiasts): They had no working automatic windscreen wipers, that puts them 15 to 20 years behind the others. Not 6 years ahead.
They really need to get better at the basics of car making quickly, before the likes of Ford, BMW, Volkswagen etc get good at building electric cars. I guess they have several years left to do it because the big guys move slow, but in their current state they're going to be in trouble no matter how advanced their CPU is.
I agree with you this is mainly a fluff piece and must be taken with a grain of salt.
I also agree that Tesla overcomplexifies some aspects of their cars and I would appreciate a simpler efficient design. After all, its the simplicity of an electric drivetrain that appealed to me.
That being said, I'm puzzled when you say its mediocre in comparison. My 3 got smashed and I have a Mercedes replacement for a few days during repairs and it really feels like a big, loud and clumsy car with an obnoxious amount of chrome. Maybe its the difference in price range, the 3 completes at a much lower price point.
That being said, I'm puzzled when you say its mediocre in comparison. My 3 got smashed and I have a Mercedes replacement for a few days during repairs and it really feels like a big, loud and clumsy car with an obnoxious amount of chrome. Maybe its the difference in price range, the 3 completes at a much lower price point.
Prices here are incomparable to the US due to tax, but a model S starts at 90k if you accept it being only available in white (nobody does at that price). If you pick any other color, reasonable rims and a "luxury interior" as you would expect on cars in this price range it's 110k to 120k euro. That's more than a full option BMW 5 series or Audi A6 and comparable to a very high-end Audi A8 or BMW 7 series.
Not sure about Mercedes, but I guess they gave you an A or B class without much luxury options as a loaner. I've seen those as rental cars as well, not great compared to their higher end cars. That would be a 30-40k kind of car here, the model 3 starts at 64k if you pick anything but white and want long range (not performance), and that's excluding autopilot.
So in my opinion they're pricing themselves into a market their cars can't really compete in.
Not sure about Mercedes, but I guess they gave you an A or B class without much luxury options as a loaner. I've seen those as rental cars as well, not great compared to their higher end cars. That would be a 30-40k kind of car here, the model 3 starts at 64k if you pick anything but white and want long range (not performance), and that's excluding autopilot.
So in my opinion they're pricing themselves into a market their cars can't really compete in.
Yes. The A and B class Mercedes are like they're made by a different manufacturer compared to the S class or something like the Mercedes-AMG GT.
Exactly. It makes some sense because they're also in a different price range, but Mercedes is risking the quality reputation of their brand of this is your first encounter with their cars.
True, but it’s been like that for a long time with the A/B class. It’s quite surprising - I can’t think of another brand that has such a wide quality differential between the low end models and the mid range (let alone high end).
Standard range is $40k, AWD long range is $50k. Paint is $1000 extra for anything but black, $2000 for red. Where are you getting $64k?
> Because I noticed I was accepting a lot of things from them that I would never have from BMW or Audi.
Could you elaborate a bit, please? I'd like to know what I'd miss if I chose Tesla.
Could you elaborate a bit, please? I'd like to know what I'd miss if I chose Tesla.
Interior:
- Quality in general with a lot of rattling sounds and cheap materials. Asked them to fix a few of these, service was super friendly, but they never really got it fixed. Not easy to describe but the magnitude of this is really worse than a low-end VW. Which is super annoying if you live in a place with non-perfect streets. (And the engines being quite makes it worse because it's more noticeable)
- Seats were not what other brands offer in adjustability etc. I didn't mind so much in the test drive, but it's annoying if you drive a lot (this has been fixed in the newer generations so you should be fine now).
Software:
- Automatic windscreen wipers just not working, for which they promised an update. Took almost a year for them to work.
- Entertainment system crashes, had to sort of reboot it sometimes to get things back to work.
Mechanical:
- Adjustable suspension failed twice, about a year apart. They claimed it was my fault for driving over speedbumps, but our other car (BMW 5 GT) is older, has the same system, and never failed.
- One door handle failed, which I think was a build quality issue, it just didn't come out anymore.
- Sunroof was leaking after winter, which took them multiple attempts to fix. And after that it had annoying wind noise at highway speed as if something was misaligned. Did not bring it back again after that because I was a bit done with it, just bought another brand as a next car.
- Quality in general with a lot of rattling sounds and cheap materials. Asked them to fix a few of these, service was super friendly, but they never really got it fixed. Not easy to describe but the magnitude of this is really worse than a low-end VW. Which is super annoying if you live in a place with non-perfect streets. (And the engines being quite makes it worse because it's more noticeable)
- Seats were not what other brands offer in adjustability etc. I didn't mind so much in the test drive, but it's annoying if you drive a lot (this has been fixed in the newer generations so you should be fine now).
Software:
- Automatic windscreen wipers just not working, for which they promised an update. Took almost a year for them to work.
- Entertainment system crashes, had to sort of reboot it sometimes to get things back to work.
Mechanical:
- Adjustable suspension failed twice, about a year apart. They claimed it was my fault for driving over speedbumps, but our other car (BMW 5 GT) is older, has the same system, and never failed.
- One door handle failed, which I think was a build quality issue, it just didn't come out anymore.
- Sunroof was leaking after winter, which took them multiple attempts to fix. And after that it had annoying wind noise at highway speed as if something was misaligned. Did not bring it back again after that because I was a bit done with it, just bought another brand as a next car.
Thank you for the list.
This is the industry that took years to adopt the CD player, it’s not that hard to be technologically ahead of them. Whether that actually translates into more sales of cars is a different question.
Assuming that was the case, it wouldn't surprise me that might have something to do with the reliability of early CDs across a wide range of temperature conditions and use given vibrations, potholes, etc.
The aftermarket filled the hole quickly and with the full range of quality available. Many people put the early "discman" portable players on the dash and used FM modulators to get that signal to the car radio.
When "factory CD" units started to appear they were multiples of the price of aftermarket units, and initially of such low quality initially that the FM modulators sounded better. The disc handling on some of the early units was ludicrous, too: "just get my CD out please" was common.
* edit: also people used "CD to cassette adapters" which are worth mentioning because of how ingenious they are. Its a headphone plug on one end and a cassette shell on the other, the headphones drive coils that excite the tape player's read head.
Source: installed car audio as a sideline in the late 80s early 90s.
When "factory CD" units started to appear they were multiples of the price of aftermarket units, and initially of such low quality initially that the FM modulators sounded better. The disc handling on some of the early units was ludicrous, too: "just get my CD out please" was common.
* edit: also people used "CD to cassette adapters" which are worth mentioning because of how ingenious they are. Its a headphone plug on one end and a cassette shell on the other, the headphones drive coils that excite the tape player's read head.
Source: installed car audio as a sideline in the late 80s early 90s.
The development lifecyle of vehicles used to be much longer than consumer electronics and software. It's still longer, but they're improving.
Fortunately ubiquitous smartphones (together with systems like CarPlay) make at least entertainment and nav systems more modular and less locked in to both development lifecycles and operational lifetimes. I never use my car's base-level entertainment system except to plug in my iPhone output and it doesn't have a factory nav system.
The next issue is/will be assistive driving systems which will become more sophisticated and common--perhaps up to even full self-driving under some conditions. We'll probably reach a point where cars that are otherwise perfectly operational will lack what are considered table-stakes (or even legally required) convenience/safety systems in new vehicles.
The next issue is/will be assistive driving systems which will become more sophisticated and common--perhaps up to even full self-driving under some conditions. We'll probably reach a point where cars that are otherwise perfectly operational will lack what are considered table-stakes (or even legally required) convenience/safety systems in new vehicles.
Yea ESP didn't come about until the 90's
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_skip_protection
Even then it could be horrible on bad roads where it doesn't get a chance to skip ahead.
It's also a lot harder to change a CD while you're driving than a tape. And until CD burners were around you couldn't do mixed tapes for road trips on CDs.
It's also a lot harder to change a CD while you're driving than a tape. And until CD burners were around you couldn't do mixed tapes for road trips on CDs.
We had analog skip protection that worked pretty well... shock absorbing trays you would mount your discman on.
As opposed to portable music CD players? I remember 25 minute "skip protection" as a feature on my siblings' players.
I just bought a 2018 Ford and the CD player skips when it's cold out.
Software with a battery pack (and no headache of a drivetrain).
Luckily for Tesla, most of the other car companies disdain software engineering and see it beneath them and mechanical engineering. My friend had sold his software company to BMW in 2008 and they didn’t even ask him to join BMW. Even more shocking they used the same software for over ten years with NO upgrades and updates.
Luckily for Tesla, most of the other car companies disdain software engineering and see it beneath them and mechanical engineering. My friend had sold his software company to BMW in 2008 and they didn’t even ask him to join BMW. Even more shocking they used the same software for over ten years with NO upgrades and updates.
You are misleaded. VW sees itself as mainly software company now. They don't do engines nor drivetrains, but they do heavy SW. This way they think they can control the technicians.
> VW sees itself as mainly software company now.
Emission-cheating software?
Emission-cheating software?
You are forgotting that the emission cheating SW came from Bosch and was implemented and distributed by Bosch.
No, really, VW sees itself as mainly SW company. Told directly from one of its outsourced development houses.
No, really, VW sees itself as mainly SW company. Told directly from one of its outsourced development houses.
In other words, Tesla teardown finds remote bricking capability 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW.
In seriousness, it's no surprise that older vendors will incrementally upgrade their hardware and work with suppliers rather than starting from scratch and obsoleting all suppliers. Likewise, I assume $startup_du_jour has a tech stack "6 years ahead" (whatever that means) of more established players.
edit: s/de jure/du jour. Thanks lorenzhs
In seriousness, it's no surprise that older vendors will incrementally upgrade their hardware and work with suppliers rather than starting from scratch and obsoleting all suppliers. Likewise, I assume $startup_du_jour has a tech stack "6 years ahead" (whatever that means) of more established players.
edit: s/de jure/du jour. Thanks lorenzhs
I agree, the article focuses on the "they built their own AI chip" thing a bit too much for my taste. It also doesn't explain why reducing the number of ECUs would upset supply chains to the degree claimed, there is a lot of other stuff that goes into making a car.
Off-topic, but I think you meant "du jour" (of the day) instead of "de jure" (by law) :)
Off-topic, but I think you meant "du jour" (of the day) instead of "de jure" (by law) :)
I did mean du jour. This is what I get for writing comments before I drink enough coffee :)
I'm perplexed by this article what so special about tesla hardware except some custom ASICs , few days ago there was article disusing the software side of Tesla cars didnt took traction on HN , its just Ubuntu based linux with fail save boot feature, a bunch of shell scripts and QT based user interface. The interesting questions is, is it viable someone to make fully open source linux distro for tesla cars and how legal is it to install alternative software for Tesla cars , just like a PC, customer buys the hardware but have a choice to install what ever software he wants.
What stands out from this article for me; I own a model 3; is that they are suggesting that suppliers may hold back some manufacturers who do not wish to damage their relationship with those suppliers by wholesale changing up how cars are done.
one area they suffer not highlighted is that each supplier maintains its own code base and while I bet they are obligated to share that with the automobile manufacturer it is still a separate team that does not integrate with other suppliers, all this meaning that since Tesla codes all their own ECU and everything feeds up they have a much easier time adapting to new tech and also fixing issues as they come along
OTA alone is a major headache for any traditional manufacturer to implement because they don't make all the electronics so they have to rely on the suppliers coming on board. Worse they also have to convince the dealer network this is a good change because it will take work from them. BMW just recently demonstrated their ability to OTA with some improvements sent up which allow customization of non driving related functions. We know that Audi supports limited OTA for eTron and the Chevrolet Bolt while it has the ability no one seems to report it being use.
for the most part the article is a bit too fanboi for me, after all Tesla riding this edge is just as likely to have issues with hardware that does not stand up to the abuse an automobile can give it
one area they suffer not highlighted is that each supplier maintains its own code base and while I bet they are obligated to share that with the automobile manufacturer it is still a separate team that does not integrate with other suppliers, all this meaning that since Tesla codes all their own ECU and everything feeds up they have a much easier time adapting to new tech and also fixing issues as they come along
OTA alone is a major headache for any traditional manufacturer to implement because they don't make all the electronics so they have to rely on the suppliers coming on board. Worse they also have to convince the dealer network this is a good change because it will take work from them. BMW just recently demonstrated their ability to OTA with some improvements sent up which allow customization of non driving related functions. We know that Audi supports limited OTA for eTron and the Chevrolet Bolt while it has the ability no one seems to report it being use.
for the most part the article is a bit too fanboi for me, after all Tesla riding this edge is just as likely to have issues with hardware that does not stand up to the abuse an automobile can give it
While I don't expect the results to be that much different, I feel like Tesla teardown should be compared to a BMW, Audi, or Lexus teardown. The cutting edge electronics stuff is usually tried first on the luxury brands before it trickles down into economy models.
A brand like Toyota or VW has to ship at magnitudes greater scale and at much lower price points. Manufacturers have much less breathing room for component failure on a Golf or Corolla, so they choose battle-tested parts or either from prior generations or whatever they've found works well on their luxury brands.
A brand like Toyota or VW has to ship at magnitudes greater scale and at much lower price points. Manufacturers have much less breathing room for component failure on a Golf or Corolla, so they choose battle-tested parts or either from prior generations or whatever they've found works well on their luxury brands.
Absolutely, scaling is one of the imho two keys here: As per [1], in 2019 Tesla sold 158k Model 3 in the US (pop ~329M). Local news[2] said VW sold 204k Golf in 2019, in Germany (pop ~83M), and they have many more well selling cars on the SAME platform across multiple brands.
2nd: Car tech was traditionally slow moving, which has a lot to do with a strong focus on safety (at least from my experience with automotive customers).
[1] http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-... [2] https://www.heise.de/autos/artikel/Deutschlands-meistverkauf...
2nd: Car tech was traditionally slow moving, which has a lot to do with a strong focus on safety (at least from my experience with automotive customers).
[1] http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-... [2] https://www.heise.de/autos/artikel/Deutschlands-meistverkauf...
At least in comparison to the i3 the Tesla was way more advanced. Its all in the Munro teardown, and the i3 was billions of $ investment for BMW.
I agree! But newer BMWs have some hands-free driving and driverless parking features along with traffic jam and lane keep assist plus a good chunk of interior and drivetrain/suspension tech, things you won't find to that extent in a ~$20k-ish range vehicle.
I expect that they're behind Tesla on most electronics, but my complaint was that comparing an economy brand like Toyota or VW with Tesla isn't an apples-to-apples comparison for a lot of reasons.
I expect that they're behind Tesla on most electronics, but my complaint was that comparing an economy brand like Toyota or VW with Tesla isn't an apples-to-apples comparison for a lot of reasons.
The doubt is whether stopping reading the article at:
>It could end the auto industry supply chain as we know it.
or just on pargraph later at:
>One stunned engineer from a major Japanese automaker examined the computer and declared, "We cannot do it."
>It could end the auto industry supply chain as we know it.
or just on pargraph later at:
>One stunned engineer from a major Japanese automaker examined the computer and declared, "We cannot do it."
[deleted]
Care to share what about those sentences caused you to lose focus?
Sure, no problem.
The first sentence is apodictical and catastrophic.
The second one is meaningless and sensationalistic.
No need to read further an article that is clearly a "plug" and that - besides and as per comments here on HN - is also factually inaccurate.
The first sentence is apodictical and catastrophic.
The second one is meaningless and sensationalistic.
No need to read further an article that is clearly a "plug" and that - besides and as per comments here on HN - is also factually inaccurate.
> The computer powers the cars' self-driving capabilities as well as their advanced in-car "infotainment" system.
Now I'm scared. I hope it is mistake of Nikkei and these two subsystems doesn't have anything in common, including power supplies.
Now I'm scared. I hope it is mistake of Nikkei and these two subsystems doesn't have anything in common, including power supplies.
No, the "self driving computer" is independent and it actually runs itself in parallel for redundancy and error checking.
The infotainment system runs a custom linux distribution running on ARM (MCU1) or intel atom (MCU2).
They talk to each other but they are independent.
The infotainment system runs a custom linux distribution running on ARM (MCU1) or intel atom (MCU2).
They talk to each other but they are independent.
It's false. The infotainment computer (MCU) is separate from the autopilot computer. You can even reboot the MCU while driving on autopilot and autopilot will keep chugging along happily--though I very much don't recommend doing this since you lose all your feedback from the car (speedometer, audio, ...) while it's rebooting.
There are two versions of the MCU and 3 or 4 versions, depending on how you count, of the autopilot computer.
There are two versions of the MCU and 3 or 4 versions, depending on how you count, of the autopilot computer.
They are wrong. The ECU driving the car is separate from the computer running neural net inference (either the NVIDIA drive PX or their newer FSD computer), which is in turn separate from the display or "MCU" which controls the entertainment system which is based on an Intel Atom CPU.
Auto pilot still works when you restart the infotainment and display system (holding two buttons on the steering wheel down), so the systems aren’t powered by the same OS.
It is only half of the story. I was almost sure, that ECU and Infotaiment runs on different CPUs under different OSes. Question is, what do they share? Same bus? Some memory area? Or only something like I2C?
I could imagine situation, when hacked infotaiment system overloads power supply, and if power supply is shared, it takes down ECU too, for example.
I hope, Tesla's engineers better than that.
I could imagine situation, when hacked infotaiment system overloads power supply, and if power supply is shared, it takes down ECU too, for example.
I hope, Tesla's engineers better than that.
> that ECU and Infotaiment runs on different CPUs under different OSes. Question is, what do they share? Same bus? Some memory area? Or only something like I2C?
That's not how auto engineering works. Read up on Controller Area Network (CAN)Bus. Tesla MCUs (Touchscreen) are on a completely separate sub-system from the power-train/braking systems.
> I hope, Tesla's engineers better than that. Sure. Most of Tesla engineers came from other auto manufacturers. Lot's of them were form the UK during the development of the Model S.
That's not how auto engineering works. Read up on Controller Area Network (CAN)Bus. Tesla MCUs (Touchscreen) are on a completely separate sub-system from the power-train/braking systems.
> I hope, Tesla's engineers better than that. Sure. Most of Tesla engineers came from other auto manufacturers. Lot's of them were form the UK during the development of the Model S.
Yep to put it a different way they seem to be saying that having Spotify running on the same ECU as the driving AI is what puts them 6 years ahead.
This is absolutely false. The new FSD chip is specifically made for Neural net inference tasks. It has a custom instruction set with ~18 instructions. Even before that, they used an NVIDIA Drive PX unit for NN inference.
The in-car entertainment system is run on a separate Intel Atom based computer. The ECU controlling the car itself is completely separate from both of these. You can reboot the main display of the car while driving on Autopilot and it will still perform the same.
The in-car entertainment system is run on a separate Intel Atom based computer. The ECU controlling the car itself is completely separate from both of these. You can reboot the main display of the car while driving on Autopilot and it will still perform the same.
I'd really like to see a simple EV for a change. No screens, no AI, no Autopilot, just a 5-seat vehicle with a reasonable range (400+ km) and AC.
So, a Chevy Bolt?
It does have an infotainment screen, but otherwise: no AI, no Autopilot, 5 seat vehicle, Air Conditioning, and a 416km range
It does have an infotainment screen, but otherwise: no AI, no Autopilot, 5 seat vehicle, Air Conditioning, and a 416km range
If they made them for the UK I’d have one already.
I drive a plug in Prius -- it has an EV range of 40 km and a gas range of 800 km, I enjoy having a silent EV most of my in town driving, but if I want to do a day trip with 6 hours of driving in a day I don't have to plan where I'm going to park it. It's still pretty computerized of course, lane keep assist and radar cruise control.
I also have wanted an EV truck that's more old fashioned -- it's not like you need ASICs and GPUs to move charge between wheels and a battery. For getting something that's built to last and won't make decisions for you I would check out Bollinger -- I read somewhere they were keeping it as much of a self-service architecture as possible to appease customers who need to maintain the vehicle 'in the field'
From their website: "the Bollinger B1 might well be the last truck you’ll ever need to buy"
https://bollingermotors.com/
I also have wanted an EV truck that's more old fashioned -- it's not like you need ASICs and GPUs to move charge between wheels and a battery. For getting something that's built to last and won't make decisions for you I would check out Bollinger -- I read somewhere they were keeping it as much of a self-service architecture as possible to appease customers who need to maintain the vehicle 'in the field'
From their website: "the Bollinger B1 might well be the last truck you’ll ever need to buy"
https://bollingermotors.com/
Unless you want a box that costs way too much money, the Bollinger B1 just seems silly. It's the Hummer H1 of EVs... in fact it's so heavy it legally isn't mandated to have airbags.
If that old-school minimalist aesthetic really appeals to you, more power to you... but it definitely doesn't seem to be meant for the majority of folks.
If that old-school minimalist aesthetic really appeals to you, more power to you... but it definitely doesn't seem to be meant for the majority of folks.
I mean even more than that I would love something like the 70s vw bugs -- simple to maintain and cheap to build, but the market for a back to basics small EV seems to be even more niche than Hummer H1s !
If you ask me, Bollinger is competing with Mercedes G wagons and Lamborghini LM002 in creating a status symbol, like the Tesla Roadster did -- at small volumes you have to pick an audience that will be happy to pay up.
If you ask me, Bollinger is competing with Mercedes G wagons and Lamborghini LM002 in creating a status symbol, like the Tesla Roadster did -- at small volumes you have to pick an audience that will be happy to pay up.
Sure, low volume status symbols are a thing. But neither the G wagon nor the Lambo Urus are what anyone would consider low-maintenance/easily maintainable vehicles though.
As for simple to maintain... isn't that the appeal of EVs already? Unless you have to do maintenance on the battery or motor... but that isn't going to change any time soon. 400V isn't anything to mess around with.
As for simple to maintain... isn't that the appeal of EVs already? Unless you have to do maintenance on the battery or motor... but that isn't going to change any time soon. 400V isn't anything to mess around with.
What advantages are you looking to get for a super stripped down EV? Less potential maintenance cost? Cheaper?
It's pretty clear for more car buyers the market has spoken and folks want more infotainment/screens/AI/whatever, so it seems that type of vehicle is definitely going to become less and less common.
It's pretty clear for more car buyers the market has spoken and folks want more infotainment/screens/AI/whatever, so it seems that type of vehicle is definitely going to become less and less common.
I don't think there are any strict advantages to such an EV with respect to day-to-day use. In fact, there are probably some disadvantages
Mantainability is a plus. But the big feature would be not worrying about your car getting remotely bricked for some arbitrary reason, or losing some essential function because your OEM's servers are down.
If a company is capable of constantly monitoring your machine, and updating it OTA, I don't doubt that their liability with respect to whatever you do to your car increases significantly.
Depending on how you like to drive, and where you drive, not fighting the smart driver 'assist' features of vehicles could be a feature as well. I read a commenter on HN some time ago about GPS-assisted headlamps preventing them from providing much needed illumination to something (wrecked vehicle, iirc) off the side of the road.
Personally, I've played enough Assassin's Creed and GTA to know I wouldn't trust a smart system to predict my intent in a life/death scenario.
Mantainability is a plus. But the big feature would be not worrying about your car getting remotely bricked for some arbitrary reason, or losing some essential function because your OEM's servers are down.
If a company is capable of constantly monitoring your machine, and updating it OTA, I don't doubt that their liability with respect to whatever you do to your car increases significantly.
Depending on how you like to drive, and where you drive, not fighting the smart driver 'assist' features of vehicles could be a feature as well. I read a commenter on HN some time ago about GPS-assisted headlamps preventing them from providing much needed illumination to something (wrecked vehicle, iirc) off the side of the road.
Personally, I've played enough Assassin's Creed and GTA to know I wouldn't trust a smart system to predict my intent in a life/death scenario.
If you really want to remove the 'big corp spying on you' aspect of Teslas, you can always pull the SIM card or ask for the non-SIM version.
It's apparently an off-menu option, but you can request one without a SIM card, so effectively all the cell network stuff is disabled. Then, if you are worried about updates bricking something... just don't update it and never connect it to the WiFi? Seems like that gets you most of the way there.
It's apparently an off-menu option, but you can request one without a SIM card, so effectively all the cell network stuff is disabled. Then, if you are worried about updates bricking something... just don't update it and never connect it to the WiFi? Seems like that gets you most of the way there.
I think it's less a privacy concern, and more a durability concern.
By way of example, I once found myself stranded at 3am about 45 miles from anyone I could get help from with a cracked radiator, no radiator cap, a gimp alternator, and no cell reception. I was too poor to afford a tow, had work the next day, and was in no position to get the vehicle properly fixed in a timely manner.
The answer to the problem was a soda can, an oil rag, a backup battery, a few rolls of duct-tape, and periodic stops to replenish my watered-down coolant whenever the engine began to redline.
Doubtless there was a more elegant solution to my problem. But that's what I came up with, and that's what I used in spite of my check engine light's protests.
A smarter vehicle might well have noted how much damage I was doing to it, and refused to even start for me.
The problem itself probably wouldn't turn up in an EV. But knowing with confidence that I can jury rig my car with 'incompatible' but available parts, or limp it home without triggering a safety mechanism that can only be reset by an authorized mechanic has become important to me, even if my commutes are broadly limited to city limits anymore, and I can afford a mechanic now.
Similarly, it's important to know that your car can be worked on by unlicensed mechanics in a pinch. Part of that is being confident that you won't lose that option in an OTA update, and that your car won't actively look for open WiFi hotspots in order to check for that (smart TV's are rumored to do this, I would assume a car is at least that advanced).
There are also issues of trust to be had around cameras replacing mirrors without offering a good fallback to the driver.
The market has spoken, it doesn't really care about these things, so ultimately I don't think a dumb car'll be an option going forward. But those are what I believe to be reasons to want one.
By way of example, I once found myself stranded at 3am about 45 miles from anyone I could get help from with a cracked radiator, no radiator cap, a gimp alternator, and no cell reception. I was too poor to afford a tow, had work the next day, and was in no position to get the vehicle properly fixed in a timely manner.
The answer to the problem was a soda can, an oil rag, a backup battery, a few rolls of duct-tape, and periodic stops to replenish my watered-down coolant whenever the engine began to redline.
Doubtless there was a more elegant solution to my problem. But that's what I came up with, and that's what I used in spite of my check engine light's protests.
A smarter vehicle might well have noted how much damage I was doing to it, and refused to even start for me.
The problem itself probably wouldn't turn up in an EV. But knowing with confidence that I can jury rig my car with 'incompatible' but available parts, or limp it home without triggering a safety mechanism that can only be reset by an authorized mechanic has become important to me, even if my commutes are broadly limited to city limits anymore, and I can afford a mechanic now.
Similarly, it's important to know that your car can be worked on by unlicensed mechanics in a pinch. Part of that is being confident that you won't lose that option in an OTA update, and that your car won't actively look for open WiFi hotspots in order to check for that (smart TV's are rumored to do this, I would assume a car is at least that advanced).
There are also issues of trust to be had around cameras replacing mirrors without offering a good fallback to the driver.
The market has spoken, it doesn't really care about these things, so ultimately I don't think a dumb car'll be an option going forward. But those are what I believe to be reasons to want one.
Pretty sure most vehicles (even Tesla's) will let you drive them in some sort of limp mode even with coolant or battery issues. Not sure how that's any different.
Anything beyond that (e.g. motor or battery problems) aren't going to be fixed like that no matter what EV you buy. Also, those pretty much all can't be hot-serviced on the side of the road anyways on modern cars since everything is more compact, less accessible, etc.
Anything beyond that (e.g. motor or battery problems) aren't going to be fixed like that no matter what EV you buy. Also, those pretty much all can't be hot-serviced on the side of the road anyways on modern cars since everything is more compact, less accessible, etc.
It's still a big pile of black-box systems where it's unclear what kind of data they collect and where they send it to whenever you connect it to a network. Never connecting it at all does defeat most of the points people like about Teslas.
Sure, but OP was asking about a stripped down EV without any of that stuff.
Also, besides traffic navigation and streaming stuff, what do you actually miss by not connecting it to the internet?
Also, besides traffic navigation and streaming stuff, what do you actually miss by not connecting it to the internet?
Has the market really spoken, though? If it's literally impossible to buy an EV that doesn't have all these gimmicky screens and AI features in 'em, then there's no way for the market to actually speak.
That might be the case in the EV space, but the ICE space is pretty well documented. All the major car brands are striving to increase the infotainment segment of their cars more and more. Compare a 2020 Camry to a 2008 one.
You almost can't buy a car without at least a 6" screen for the infotainment outside of the cars trying extra hard to appeal to the budget market.
You almost can't buy a car without at least a 6" screen for the infotainment outside of the cars trying extra hard to appeal to the budget market.
> You almost can't buy a car without at least a 6" screen for the infotainment outside of the cars trying extra hard to appeal to the budget market.
That's exactly my point. Your only options are "nice car with touchscreen" or "mediocre car without". There's no opportunity for the market to, you know, actually speak.
That's exactly my point. Your only options are "nice car with touchscreen" or "mediocre car without". There's no opportunity for the market to, you know, actually speak.
Because the market already spoke a long time ago. It used to be the fancy infotainment screen was extra on cars. Turns out the take rate on those is high enough, so it just became standard.
But that's the thing: because the market spoke once a decade ago, does that mean there's no room for revisiting that discussion? Tastes change, technology changes, the economy changes, people change, everything changes.
It's much like the current 4k TV market. Once upon a time, The Market™ spoke in favor of putting "smart" functionality in TVs, and so manufacturers added computers with greater and greater complexity and visual pizazz and apps and such.
Then, the Chromecast and Roku and Fire TV and such became popular, and - better yet - ended up being much easier to upgrade as technology marched on (you only have to replace a $35-or-so dongle or box instead of having to replace a whole multi-hundred-or-thousand-dollar TV). On top of that, the cable companies started to dip their toes in offering these "smart" features in their own set top boxes, as did Nintendo/Microsoft/Sony with their gaming consoles, and there were and still are zero TVs able to replace either category of device. So now you have a bunch of TVs with smart features that go entirely unused (or, worse, actually break, taking the TV with it) because other devices offer better versions of those features and can actually be upgraded without replacing the entire TV.
Unfortunately, since The Market™ has already spoken, there is now to my knowledge exactly one 4k TV manufacturer that offers consumer-grade TVs without smart features (Sceptre), and certainly not on store shelves (I had to buy mine on Amazon, with all the risk of damage and theft that entails, and the only Prime-eligible one was the 50"). Literally every other 4k TV - including any at a brick-and-mortar store, be it Best Buy or Fry's or Wal-Mart or what have you - has smart features that cannot be removed and that are either 1) already outperformed by $20-100 devices on those same exact shelves or 2) going to be outperformed within a year because technology marches on and no TV offers a way to upgrade the computational hardware.
It's much like the current 4k TV market. Once upon a time, The Market™ spoke in favor of putting "smart" functionality in TVs, and so manufacturers added computers with greater and greater complexity and visual pizazz and apps and such.
Then, the Chromecast and Roku and Fire TV and such became popular, and - better yet - ended up being much easier to upgrade as technology marched on (you only have to replace a $35-or-so dongle or box instead of having to replace a whole multi-hundred-or-thousand-dollar TV). On top of that, the cable companies started to dip their toes in offering these "smart" features in their own set top boxes, as did Nintendo/Microsoft/Sony with their gaming consoles, and there were and still are zero TVs able to replace either category of device. So now you have a bunch of TVs with smart features that go entirely unused (or, worse, actually break, taking the TV with it) because other devices offer better versions of those features and can actually be upgraded without replacing the entire TV.
Unfortunately, since The Market™ has already spoken, there is now to my knowledge exactly one 4k TV manufacturer that offers consumer-grade TVs without smart features (Sceptre), and certainly not on store shelves (I had to buy mine on Amazon, with all the risk of damage and theft that entails, and the only Prime-eligible one was the 50"). Literally every other 4k TV - including any at a brick-and-mortar store, be it Best Buy or Fry's or Wal-Mart or what have you - has smart features that cannot be removed and that are either 1) already outperformed by $20-100 devices on those same exact shelves or 2) going to be outperformed within a year because technology marches on and no TV offers a way to upgrade the computational hardware.
Mazda is currently purging touchscreens from their vehicle lineup, which is, IMO, the correct approach to in-car UX.
I feel strongly enough about it that I'd support a regulatory approach for eliminating touchscreens in cars.
I feel strongly enough about it that I'd support a regulatory approach for eliminating touchscreens in cars.
Keyword being touchscreen. Mazda isn't going away from a 6"+ screen, you're just going to have to use a knob to navigate on it.
Regardless of your preference on in-car UX, screens displaying most of the info are here to stay.
Regardless of your preference on in-car UX, screens displaying most of the info are here to stay.
It feels to me like there is a symmetry of arrogance here.
Traditional car companies are finding that making an electric car is hard (emphasis on electric)
Tesla is finding that making an electric car is hard (emphasis on car)
Traditional car companies are finding that making an electric car is hard (emphasis on electric)
Tesla is finding that making an electric car is hard (emphasis on car)
Car companies aren't finding making an electric car hard at all.
Taycan is by most reviews the best EV car out there. And we have EVs from BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, Volvo, VW etc already being sold today in pretty sizeable numbers.
The problem is (a) getting enough battery supply, (b) convincing consumers to buy them, (c) getting the costs down and (d) the somewhat lacklustre growth in EV demand.
Taycan is by most reviews the best EV car out there. And we have EVs from BMW, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, Volvo, VW etc already being sold today in pretty sizeable numbers.
The problem is (a) getting enough battery supply, (b) convincing consumers to buy them, (c) getting the costs down and (d) the somewhat lacklustre growth in EV demand.
> Taycan is by most reviews the best EV car out there
Citation needed.
Citation needed.
Interesting, but why would you think any of them ever thought that making an electric car would be easy?
Good question, and I don't know that easy/hard is the correct dimension here.
They do seem to be been caught off guard by some combination of how quickly the electric car market has taken off, and what is possible to build.
There seems to have been a reliance on the argument that people need a range of X and because that isn't achievable the market will be small.
I think that complacency and/or conservatism may be the real issues here.
It's not entirely dissimilar to the slow response of the American car industry to the rise in quality of Japanese cars. But that also provides a model for how they might (albeit slowly) rise to the challenge
They do seem to be been caught off guard by some combination of how quickly the electric car market has taken off, and what is possible to build.
There seems to have been a reliance on the argument that people need a range of X and because that isn't achievable the market will be small.
I think that complacency and/or conservatism may be the real issues here.
It's not entirely dissimilar to the slow response of the American car industry to the rise in quality of Japanese cars. But that also provides a model for how they might (albeit slowly) rise to the challenge
My view of the economics is that most recently Tesla knows how to make a car. The battery pack is still more expensive than an ICE drivetrain, but that is a matter of time.
My view of that is based on the rapid construction of the China gigafactory, and the sooner-than-expected Model Y deliveries.
The only company with proper prioritization of EV development outside of Tesla is VW. GM would be next, but they still are going too slow and clearly don't have full C-level executive buyin
My view of that is based on the rapid construction of the China gigafactory, and the sooner-than-expected Model Y deliveries.
The only company with proper prioritization of EV development outside of Tesla is VW. GM would be next, but they still are going too slow and clearly don't have full C-level executive buyin
> The only company with proper prioritization of EV development outside of Tesla is VW
That is simply not true.
All of the manufacturers apart from say Toyota have made EV the number one priority for their companies. Mainly because of the impending EU regulations on emissions.
Porsche has the best EV car on the market. BMW sacked their CEO because of a lack of EV progress, Mercedes has most of their innovation going into the EQC series. There are stories everywhere on how the companies are rapidly shifting to EV.
That is simply not true.
All of the manufacturers apart from say Toyota have made EV the number one priority for their companies. Mainly because of the impending EU regulations on emissions.
Porsche has the best EV car on the market. BMW sacked their CEO because of a lack of EV progress, Mercedes has most of their innovation going into the EQC series. There are stories everywhere on how the companies are rapidly shifting to EV.
I keep seeing people in these comments saying that the Taycan is better than the Model S, but I'm not sure what they're seeing. It has a razor-thin acceleration advantage and can manage that more than once on a charge, but it does that at the cost of being a very expensive and cramped sports car design. If you're optimizing for track performance, sure, but that's not a very common use case, as opposed to the usefulness of a longer range, more spacious, cheaper sedan.
It’s just the one commenter repeating themselves, not “people”. And they are just making things up. The Taycan is not better reviewed than the Model S or the Model 3.
I thought there was, though, previous discussion of Tesla using non-automotive grade electronics in places. Using stuff that's rated for the heat, moisture, vibration, etc, implies lag time as opposed to "latest/greatest".
The big screen is the common example of this, as they couldn't source an automative-grade screen that big. It's suffered several issues due to heat and UV exposure.
The screen is automotive grade. The yellow discoloration has been traced back to a supplier changing the adhesive chemistry on the LCD panel to save cost.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/yellow-borders-on-ma...
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/mcu-touch-screen-yello...
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/yellow-borders-on-ma...
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/mcu-touch-screen-yello...
The screen is not automotive grade [1].
If the adhesive that holds the screen together is not automotive grade then the whole unit is not automotive grade.
[1] https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
If the adhesive that holds the screen together is not automotive grade then the whole unit is not automotive grade.
[1] https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
Seems like they made a calculated tradeoff here to sacrifice some reliability in further-toward-the-fringe conditions (extremes of heat & humidity) in order to get some wow factor with the screen.
They did make a calculated tradeoff.
They also made a calculated decision not to recall the device nor properly replace the screens for those affected. Forums are littered with stories of people who suffer from the yellowing and are forced to live with it.
They also made a calculated decision not to recall the device nor properly replace the screens for those affected. Forums are littered with stories of people who suffer from the yellowing and are forced to live with it.
The yellowing is a purely cosmetic issue. The more serious earlier problems were fixed under warranty.
Lots of people have had success getting the yellowing fixed without charge after going through arbitration. I'd prefer if they would fix it under warranty, obviously, but it's not a huge deal.
Lots of people have had success getting the yellowing fixed without charge after going through arbitration. I'd prefer if they would fix it under warranty, obviously, but it's not a huge deal.
Indeed, years ago. Keep in mind the model S started in 2012!
Everyone is good at something. Tesla is good at electronics, Toyota is good at manufacturing and quality control. A collaboration would be beneficial for both.
A Toyota-Tesla collaboration would never happen, except that it did. We live in a truly strange world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV#Second_generati...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV#Second_generati...
Tesla fans regualrly speak about how the company doesnt advertise at all.
After articles like this, I remain unconvinced.
After articles like this, I remain unconvinced.
By definition, advertising is paid for.
You’re thinking of PR, which by definition is unpaid.
You’re thinking of PR, which by definition is unpaid.
They didn't really need to tear down a model 3 to see the HW3 computer, they could have just watched last years Tesla presentation. Also I don't know how they calculate 6 years - Nvidia will probably have something comparable they can buy within a year or so.
>Nvidia will probably have something comparable they can buy within a year or so.
NVIDIA already did, at the time the Tesla chip was publicized:
It’s not useful to compare the performance of Tesla’s two-chip Full Self Driving computer against NVIDIA’s single-chip driver assistance system. Tesla’s two-chip FSD computer at 144 TOPs would compare against the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Pegasus computer which runs at 320 TOPS for AI perception, localization and path planning.
And more in the pipe...
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2019/04/23/tesla-self-driving/
NVIDIA already did, at the time the Tesla chip was publicized:
It’s not useful to compare the performance of Tesla’s two-chip Full Self Driving computer against NVIDIA’s single-chip driver assistance system. Tesla’s two-chip FSD computer at 144 TOPs would compare against the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Pegasus computer which runs at 320 TOPS for AI perception, localization and path planning.
And more in the pipe...
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2019/04/23/tesla-self-driving/
Tesla didn't do this to do one chip, they did it to have the need knowledge to build a new one every year. And not a generic one but a very specific one to their need.
My brand new Toyota C-HR comes with an entertainment screen that is not Retina display. Technology that has been out for half a decade and is found in the dirt cheapest of smart phones. It honestly doesn’t surprise me that the rest of their tech is so far behind.
Automotive grade components have to survive greater temperature extremes and vibration for 10+ years. Disposable consumer products don't operate in the same sphere. Tesla has been burned by using consumer grade screens.
Why would someone need an incredibly pixel dense infotainment display in their car anyway? Does it show all the information I need? Does it have an easy to navigate UI? Will it last a long time and be inexpensive to repair or replace if needed? That's all I really care about for a screen that I look at maybe 5% of the time I'm in my car, because for the most part I'm looking at, y'know, the road and cars around me.
When using the screen for navigation, clarity and contrast of the map being shown is of upt-most importance, especially with the "glancing" nature one would view the map. A high-density screen could help aid this.
It has been burned, but the solution was to control the temperature of the car, not be behind by 10 years. Both have pros and cons.
It just usually sucks to pay a lot of money for a car that's so far behind all the cheap devices that I have.
It just usually sucks to pay a lot of money for a car that's so far behind all the cheap devices that I have.
You can't control the temperature in a car all the time. A car left outside in the south-west US will get very hot. Often up to 80 degrees C (170F). It's a greenhouse.
Likewise a car parked outside in Montreal in winter might reach -40 degrees C (-40F) inside.
Your electronics need to work through that entire temperature range, cope with repeatedly thermally cycling between extreme and room temperature and then keep doing it for more than 10 years.
Likewise a car parked outside in Montreal in winter might reach -40 degrees C (-40F) inside.
Your electronics need to work through that entire temperature range, cope with repeatedly thermally cycling between extreme and room temperature and then keep doing it for more than 10 years.
Tesla's come by default with something called cabin overheat protection. The car will protect itself at something like 105F. It costs power of course, but I doubt many owners disable this feature.
Similarly if plugged in (which I do when I'm below -20F and not driving) it will heat thing to protect itself.
Similarly if plugged in (which I do when I'm below -20F and not driving) it will heat thing to protect itself.
I spent a summer in Texas where my car would hit 185F if parked in the sun during the day. Light tan Corolla with tinted rear windows, so not even near optimal in terms of retaining heat.
I baked cookies on the dash one day. Not hot enough for caramelization though so the flavor was lacking.
Surely I had covered parking most of the time.
I baked cookies on the dash one day. Not hot enough for caramelization though so the flavor was lacking.
Surely I had covered parking most of the time.
Seriously... it’s just some extra pixels?! The have picked cheap components, plain and simple.
I tried looking for automotive grade LCDs with high DPI. Couldn't find all that much, but came across this press release from Mitsubishi[1], indicating they released something that starts to approach retina only last summer.
As mentioned, in a car you really want automotive grade components, at least due to the heat and vibration it needs to sustain.
[1]: https://www.mitsubishielectric.com/news/2019/0423-b.html
As mentioned, in a car you really want automotive grade components, at least due to the heat and vibration it needs to sustain.
[1]: https://www.mitsubishielectric.com/news/2019/0423-b.html
This used to be a good excuse, but somehow it starts to ring hollow. Ipads are as near indestructible as any hardware I've seen - drop'em, scratch'em, give'em to toddlers to play with. By comparison a car screen kinda lives a sheltered life.
Cars see radically different temperatures. Park a car in Phoenix for 8 hours in the sun, or let it sit overnight in Anchorage. My iPhone can’t be left on the dash in sunny weather without overheating. Even in the Bay Area, commuting home with Waze forced me to mount it on an AC blower with the case off.
A car screen will take hundreds of thousands of kilometers worth of vibration over the expected decade+ of use, lots of direct sunlight exposure, wildly varying humidity, temperatures of anywhere between -35C and +80C and it will work just the same. What you're describing is nothing compared to that.
-Toyota is rather conservative with regards to new technology, which IMHO is part of the reason they tend to score very well on all kinds of reliability barometers.
(An almost fanatical devotion to quality and process control being another major factor!)
Chances are you will still be able to buy that entertainment screen in 15-20 years' time.
(An almost fanatical devotion to quality and process control being another major factor!)
Chances are you will still be able to buy that entertainment screen in 15-20 years' time.
(An almost fanatical devotion to quality and process control being another major factor!)
They even wrote a book in it, "The Toyota Way".
My car has a monochrome segmented LCD and physical controls that I can manipulate without looking. My friend’s low res color touch LCD is bad enough, I just know the people building these UIs now unconstrained by the physical DPI would include features that require long careful looks in order to resolve.
Glancing at the big, high-dpi navigation map and getting the info you need quickly is a pretty major feature. The Model 3 screen has a bit of this issue with buttons around the edges, but where it's important, like speed, autopilot controls, and the map, they've done well.
Every decision made on a car like that is based on cost. The C-HR is a low cost car and I'm sure the retina display is one of hundreds of cost savings decisions made. The Tesla OTOH costs about 1.5-2xx as much as what I see as the base price for the C-HR - so I'd expect more expensive components.
The touchscreen system of my Honda HRV from that I bought in 2016 is ridiculously bad.
I think the new models come with Android or Apple Car integration but mine has a UI that looks and feels from 20 years ago. Not only it's fugly, but it's slow and unresponsive. Bluetooth disconnects randomly. Sometimes the phone connects but not the audio. The volume control is a fucking touchscreen slider which is totally unresponsive. Jesus, the team that did that had no idea what they were doing.
I think the new models come with Android or Apple Car integration but mine has a UI that looks and feels from 20 years ago. Not only it's fugly, but it's slow and unresponsive. Bluetooth disconnects randomly. Sometimes the phone connects but not the audio. The volume control is a fucking touchscreen slider which is totally unresponsive. Jesus, the team that did that had no idea what they were doing.
Touch screens in Subarus, BMWs, Lexus, and Fords (the ones I've personally tried) are laughably bad. Like 10 year old phones, of even older tables like the Nokia 770 tablet (2004 ish).
The Tesla was the first UI I tried that felt as good or better than this years phones. Nice large, clear, color display. Fast UI, pinch and zoom, etc. I do wish they spent a bit more on ram/SSD to keep a better local cache. Seems silly to zoom in, then zoom out and have to wait for the infill.
The Tesla was the first UI I tried that felt as good or better than this years phones. Nice large, clear, color display. Fast UI, pinch and zoom, etc. I do wish they spent a bit more on ram/SSD to keep a better local cache. Seems silly to zoom in, then zoom out and have to wait for the infill.
Automotive grade matters:
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
How often do you replace your phone? How often do you replace your car?
That works the other direction - because of this reason, cars need to have high-end components (in e.g. display resolution) in order to be future proof; because if your phone resolution is horribly obsolete you just replace the phone, but if your car built-in screen is horribly obsolete, then you're still stuck with it. It's unacceptable for a brand new car to use obsolete tech because it won't be replaced any time soon.
Exactly that my point. My car is brand new, the model is brand new, yet it’s screen looks like it’s out the bargain basement of an LCD factory. In 5 to 10 year’s time when I replace the car, it’ll look even worse!
> In 5 to 10 year’s time when I replace the car, it’ll look even worse!
Not to be pedantic, but it will be the same usable screen, you will just have been sold higher expectations by then. An unfortunate byproduct of progress. Things are good enough until one day they aren't :)
Not to be pedantic, but it will be the same usable screen, you will just have been sold higher expectations by then. An unfortunate byproduct of progress. Things are good enough until one day they aren't :)
why not just make the screen a module that can be replaced or upgraded, such as by inserting a fresh iPad every few years.
Larry Ellison and Tesla definitely want you to replace your car like your phone.
Should have buy a Tesla Model 3
But also is probably 6 years ahead in problems and issues related to bugs in design and software. Ie, recent news about wearing SSD that is causing already and will brick every Tesla model available, problems with updates, etc.
Also, security risks have to be considered with such vehicle.
It's not that Toyota or VW can't afford in software/hardware research - because they have more than enough resources for this. Those are the biggest car manufacturers in the world. They simply price more reliability. Especially Toyota is good example for that, their models are usually 3-5 years in "gadgets" behind VW group or Korean makers, but their cars offer solid reliability and usually they simply drive for years without much troubles.
Another example of how Tesla is ahead: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30361800/tesla-model-3-lo... >Not only is this the first time we've ever had a long-term car suffer a catastrophic failure while parked, it's also an extraordinarily rare case of any car leaving us stranded, something unacceptable for any new vehicle, particularly one that costs $57,690 and with merely 5286 miles on the odometer. Even our problem-prone Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio was at least able to limp to the dealer following each one of its numerous issues.
It's not that Toyota or VW can't afford in software/hardware research - because they have more than enough resources for this. Those are the biggest car manufacturers in the world. They simply price more reliability. Especially Toyota is good example for that, their models are usually 3-5 years in "gadgets" behind VW group or Korean makers, but their cars offer solid reliability and usually they simply drive for years without much troubles.
Another example of how Tesla is ahead: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30361800/tesla-model-3-lo... >Not only is this the first time we've ever had a long-term car suffer a catastrophic failure while parked, it's also an extraordinarily rare case of any car leaving us stranded, something unacceptable for any new vehicle, particularly one that costs $57,690 and with merely 5286 miles on the odometer. Even our problem-prone Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio was at least able to limp to the dealer following each one of its numerous issues.
> recent news about wearing SSD that is causing already and will brick every Tesla model available
Unless you're describing something else, that issue is limited to older Teslas:
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-...
> Not only is this the first time we've ever had a long-term car suffer a catastrophic failure while parked
Any other car "being parked and then later failing to start" is not newsworthy. It was interesting in this case because it was detected and the owner notified via push notification that it occurred.
Obviously it shouldn't have happened, especially since it's a newer car. But it's the push notification that made it newsworthy. "My car wouldn't start and had to be towed to a dealer to get fixed for an incredibly rare issue that happened to me" could be written for any car, and nobody would care.
Unless you're describing something else, that issue is limited to older Teslas:
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/flash-memory-wear-killing-...
> Not only is this the first time we've ever had a long-term car suffer a catastrophic failure while parked
Any other car "being parked and then later failing to start" is not newsworthy. It was interesting in this case because it was detected and the owner notified via push notification that it occurred.
Obviously it shouldn't have happened, especially since it's a newer car. But it's the push notification that made it newsworthy. "My car wouldn't start and had to be towed to a dealer to get fixed for an incredibly rare issue that happened to me" could be written for any car, and nobody would care.
> Industry insiders expect such technology to take hold around 2025 at the earliest.
there's many interpretations. the most obvious is that industry insiders were wrong about their expectations, since the technology has reached the market this early. the other is that the 6 years estimate is way too generous, given production units exists, and late adoption cycle is usually two years. the third is this is a "my darling tesla" advertisement.
somehow I am more inclined to sit between position one and two, especially since the productization of ai chips is already in the works[1], but still.
[1] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613305/this-chip-was-demo...
there's many interpretations. the most obvious is that industry insiders were wrong about their expectations, since the technology has reached the market this early. the other is that the 6 years estimate is way too generous, given production units exists, and late adoption cycle is usually two years. the third is this is a "my darling tesla" advertisement.
somehow I am more inclined to sit between position one and two, especially since the productization of ai chips is already in the works[1], but still.
[1] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613305/this-chip-was-demo...
So Toyota and VW are concerned about the other companies, which currently supply their ECU's, having to lay off staff if they (Toyota and VW) switched over to Teslaesque style control modules. REALLY?! I find that laughable on its face.
It might be related to the fact that Toyota championed "Just-in-time manufacturing" which requires tight control over the supply chain. You have to be able to trust your suppliers to deliver what you need on time and in high quality. So you must cultivate close relations with your suppliers over many years. They almost become your partners. You can't just stop working with one supplier and switch to another on a whim.
"Toyota believes in developing mutually beneficial, long-term relationships based on mutual trust with all suppliers. To foster that trust, we pursue close and wide-ranging communication to share our business knowledge to enhance our business relationship." (https://www.toyotauk.com/toyota-in-the-uk/supplier-relations...)
"Toyota believes in developing mutually beneficial, long-term relationships based on mutual trust with all suppliers. To foster that trust, we pursue close and wide-ranging communication to share our business knowledge to enhance our business relationship." (https://www.toyotauk.com/toyota-in-the-uk/supplier-relations...)
I think the real meat of this story is down towards the bottom.
> The real reason for holding off? Automakers worry that computers like Tesla's will render obsolete the parts supply chains they have cultivated over decades, the engineer said.
> The real reason for holding off? Automakers worry that computers like Tesla's will render obsolete the parts supply chains they have cultivated over decades, the engineer said.
Duplicate discussion with far more comments:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22347806
> https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/htt...
Strikes me as a typical low-reliability design. Would be surprised if this unit lasts ten (or even five) years.
Strikes me as a typical low-reliability design. Would be surprised if this unit lasts ten (or even five) years.
How's that less reliable than many parts that can fail independently? Cars don't have much redundancy.
They are already breaking. The flash chips are wearing out because teslas obsessively log everything you do.
And that's been fixed in newer firwmare versions, per the hacker who fixes those in the first place.
I think the unwillingness of ICE companies to get involved in the production of batteries is the biggest problem.
Right now everyone is worrying that batteries will become a commodity market soon and all the investments in building a battery factory will become worthless. However, the reality is that existing car manufacturers get left behind without access to batteries. Tesla is building Gigafactories everywhere and doesn't suffer from this major problem.
Right now everyone is worrying that batteries will become a commodity market soon and all the investments in building a battery factory will become worthless. However, the reality is that existing car manufacturers get left behind without access to batteries. Tesla is building Gigafactories everywhere and doesn't suffer from this major problem.
I actually like having discrete control units for different components in cars. Recently I upgraded the suspension control computer in my sports car to a much more advanced aftermarket one that calculates and controls each shock absorber dynamically. This wouldn't be possible with a "monolithic" control unit like the Tesla has.
Oh it’s about self driving and computers. When it comes to car electronics I care more about how the parking sensors and power windows will work in 10 years than how many watts of outdated neural processor it has.
On an electric car I do care about battery management electronics though. That’s where I thought Tesla had the important edge over the competition.
On an electric car I do care about battery management electronics though. That’s where I thought Tesla had the important edge over the competition.
I am a bit skeptical. Remember when Tesla ventured outside of the typical automotive supply chain to obtain large screens in their cars?
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27989/teslas-screen-saga-shows...
Exactly. And unlike this AI module thingamabob, a touchscreen doesn't have the power to fatally slam me into a wall at 70MPH going down the 101.
I'd rather wait for the likes of Toyota to do things right with automotive-grade components and automotive-grade programming and automotive-grade testing than trust my life to whatever hackery Tesla wants to brogrammer into its ASICs.
The article's probably right about some Japanese engineer saying "I can't do this". Not because that engineer doesn't know how to do it, or because of some relationship with component manufacturers, but because doing so would be ethically questionable at best.
I'd rather wait for the likes of Toyota to do things right with automotive-grade components and automotive-grade programming and automotive-grade testing than trust my life to whatever hackery Tesla wants to brogrammer into its ASICs.
The article's probably right about some Japanese engineer saying "I can't do this". Not because that engineer doesn't know how to do it, or because of some relationship with component manufacturers, but because doing so would be ethically questionable at best.
Automotive grade programming is a joke. There have been numerous posts here including one a couple days ago about the auto accelerating Toyota’s and it was pretty clear that the problem was with Toyota’s programming as well as their lack of testing. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10437117
Not to mention the numerous ways current automotive manufacturers fail at cyber security. Stuff like OnStar and being able to shut down cars remotely.
Not to mention the numerous ways current automotive manufacturers fail at cyber security. Stuff like OnStar and being able to shut down cars remotely.
You'd rather wait for Toyota of all people? Toyota is infamous for the bad quality of their software/firmware. Not that I'd expect much better from other established car makers.
> You'd rather wait for Toyota of all people?
Even Toyota has a better track record than Tesla here.
Even Toyota has a better track record than Tesla here.
>One stunned engineer from a major Japanese automaker examined the computer and declared, "We cannot do it."
Ouch
Ouch
Read further. It roughly translates to "we can't do it because we already invested in a different supply chain strategy that comes with considerable advantages".
Latecomer advantages.
Latecomer advantages.
I'd read that as "cannot do this in a sensible timeframe while still following Automotive SPICE".
The big question for me is whether they reused it for SpaceX Starlink. The satellites are in low enough orbit that common COTS should work without any issue, and the automotive grade HW is usually well suited in these environment. And they would benefit from volumes.
I fail to see how a custom AI computer will "invalidate the supply chain".
It's not like Tesla manufactured the chips and components in house unless I'm not aware that Tesla now has its own PCBA and component factory.
It's not like Tesla manufactured the chips and components in house unless I'm not aware that Tesla now has its own PCBA and component factory.
Tight control of the hardware and software reminds me of Apple.
With Larry Ellison on the board it reminds me of Oracle.
Wait, Ellison is on the board of Tesla? That's one good reason to hate the company I guess.
Yes, he’s also donating millions of dollars to a well known climate change denier.
https://ir.tesla.com/board-directors/larry-ellison
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-15/larry-elli...
https://ir.tesla.com/board-directors/larry-ellison
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-02-15/larry-elli...
With red on the logo, it reminds me of Coca-Cola.
Are some of the board seats allocated by people trying to counterbalance Elon though?
Hum that is "information" for investors, nothing technical, except that oh wait they use an ASIC!!! How great ...
So all the electronics in the car are more centralized? Doesn't that mean there's only one point of failure now?
Companies like that are basically work creation schemes.
Does anyone know if Tesla are using SiFive[1] for their custom silicon design?
[1] https://www.sifive.com
[1] https://www.sifive.com
Meanwhile, my 2019 Volvo runs windows CE.
Those “AI chips” are produced by NVIDIA... (NVIDIA PX2) So, any car manufacturer could get the same in a short amount of time.
Src: Working in that field
Not true for Tesla HW3, since April 2019.
It's easy to get ahead when you're not concerned with lifing and having automotive grade components that will last 20 years.
I am reading this on my 8 year old computer
They haven't beaten anyone by 6 years when you can't even use that feature.
They have if you need to collect 6 years of “fleet scale” data before you can get the feature certified.
Is Tesla still controlled just from one tablet-like surface in the center?
Meaning you can't adjust anything while driving?
Meaning you can't adjust anything while driving?
Please downmod more:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/6/21127243/tesla-model-s-aut...
Looks like we're talking about the same Tesla that disables features remotely on your car.
It doesn't even matter who was in the right on that incident, looks like a dangerous car to me. And I did used to envy the US for having it available...
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/6/21127243/tesla-model-s-aut...
Looks like we're talking about the same Tesla that disables features remotely on your car.
It doesn't even matter who was in the right on that incident, looks like a dangerous car to me. And I did used to envy the US for having it available...
Model 3s have hardware buttons on the steering wheel.
Seems like these components were authorized at the height of the self driving hype cycle as a way of future proofing the cars--that is, the owner could download a self-driving software update and the hardware would already be ready for it. In retrospect, this looks foolish: doing self driving without a LIDAR is borderline unethical.
I wouldn't be surprised if newer models do away with these ASICs until the software is further along.
I wouldn't be surprised if newer models do away with these ASICs until the software is further along.
Huh? Even without full level 5 self-driving, these chips allow Tesla to control steering and breaking in many situations.
Humans don’t have lidar and we are able to navigate the world. If the windows of the car was replaced by a low latency screen, showing exactly what we’d see if we looked out the window, we could drive just fine, so cameras do provide enough data to self drive. You just need a smart processor.
Humans don’t have lidar and we are able to navigate the world. If the windows of the car was replaced by a low latency screen, showing exactly what we’d see if we looked out the window, we could drive just fine, so cameras do provide enough data to self drive. You just need a smart processor.
No, you would lack depth perception. It is possible to drive, but it would probably be significantly more difficult. I have a friend with a dysfunctional eye. He has a drivers license, but really doesn't like driving or catching things out of the air.
But while humans can successfully correct for this issue through extended interpretation of perceived images and training, it becomes almost a necessity for a stupid computer. I believe a fast and efficient stereoscopy would make identifying objects much easier. But it isn't neither trivial to implement, nor very performant to my knowledge.
A Lidar would be an alternative of course.
But while humans can successfully correct for this issue through extended interpretation of perceived images and training, it becomes almost a necessity for a stupid computer. I believe a fast and efficient stereoscopy would make identifying objects much easier. But it isn't neither trivial to implement, nor very performant to my knowledge.
A Lidar would be an alternative of course.
The bar is not "being able to navigate the world". The bar is doing so 10x more safely than a human, and currently the human deaths-in-car-crash rate is something like 1.2 per 100 million miles driven [0]. For scale, that is the same distance from the Earth to the sun, and equivalent to 4000 trips around the equator. I understand it is theoretically possible to beat this without a LIDAR but you are seriously understating the difficulty of this task when you say you just need a smart processor.
[0]: https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...
[0]: https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...
Injury rate / accident rate is a good proxy for deaths, so you don’t need as much data as 1.2 in 100M would imply.
Also, given humans drive a lot, even with those astronomical odds, if you drove 15k a year for 60 years, you’d have an almost 1% chance of dying in an auto accident.
Also, given humans drive a lot, even with those astronomical odds, if you drove 15k a year for 60 years, you’d have an almost 1% chance of dying in an auto accident.
Realistically though, Tesla will got bought out by one of these larger companies, so they can integrate (while undoubtedly making worse) the underlying tech.
Tesla hasn’t show any capacity to deliver quality cars at scale, nor provide service to them, whatever their ambitions. Combined with all their SEC problems, it’s reminiscent of Preston Tucker’s car company:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_Tucker
Tesla hasn’t show any capacity to deliver quality cars at scale, nor provide service to them, whatever their ambitions. Combined with all their SEC problems, it’s reminiscent of Preston Tucker’s car company:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_Tucker
Tesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019
(as of mid-January) Tesla's market capitalization is $93 billion, compared to $50 billion for General Motors and $37 billion for Ford
No other car company is going to be buying them out unless they crash very very badly
(as of mid-January) Tesla's market capitalization is $93 billion, compared to $50 billion for General Motors and $37 billion for Ford
No other car company is going to be buying them out unless they crash very very badly
A result of the cancer that is continuously floating silicon valley companies in perpetuity despite them not making a profit for years.
Tesla is overvalued simply by name. Same with Apple. Autonomous driving is still years out and their custom AI chip apparently doesn't do much in the way of helping that yet.
That and the most obvious reality that love the guy or hate him, Tesla isn't Tesla without Elon. Unlike SpaceX, Tesla has to Gwynne Shotwell. It is Musk who drives the engineering (and causes an enormous amount of turnover as a result). It would be a hard sell for a lot of share holders (including Elon and Kimbal Musk) to take the temporary raise in share price of a buyout knowing it would tank the max upside of the company in the long term.
Disagree, Tesla is over the hump. They need Elon to go to 1T but they can get to Toyota-scale just grinding on the current strategy.
Toyota’s market cap is more than twice that of Tesla, around 200 billion, and they sold 10 million cars last year.
I do expect Tesla’s is dramatically inflated, I have no idea if Toyota would buy them, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. If Toyota could successfully integrate all the Tesla stuff into their vehicles, it would also have a greater impact than anything Tesla will likely accomplish on their own.
I do expect Tesla’s is dramatically inflated, I have no idea if Toyota would buy them, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. If Toyota could successfully integrate all the Tesla stuff into their vehicles, it would also have a greater impact than anything Tesla will likely accomplish on their own.
As of this very moment, the market caps of both are as follows:
Toyota: 228.41 Billion
Tesla: 144.2 Billion
That Tesla’s market cap is anywhere close to Toyota’s should give you pause, given the difference in scale and market penetration of the two companies.
Look, I’m a firm believer in the “market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent” and especially in our post-2008, QE money printing, Saudi sovereign wealth fund, unmoored-from-reality present. So honestly, who knows how it will all pan out. Maybe we now just live in a hyperreal future where Musk’s marketing shenanigans are materially equivalent to the solid fundamentals and record of a company like Toyota. Could very well be.
Look, I’m a firm believer in the “market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent” and especially in our post-2008, QE money printing, Saudi sovereign wealth fund, unmoored-from-reality present. So honestly, who knows how it will all pan out. Maybe we now just live in a hyperreal future where Musk’s marketing shenanigans are materially equivalent to the solid fundamentals and record of a company like Toyota. Could very well be.
Tesla isn't just an auto manufacturer. It is also a distribution network, a direct dealer network, service network, and fueling station system. They aren't displacing the market opportunity of just Toyota / VAG / etc. They are displacing the market opportunity of much more of the value chain.
The Toyota engineer worried about jobs in the supply chain is just the tip of the ice berg. ICE cars are substantially more complex and require much more regular maintenance (all the way down to increased tire and brake wear).
Incumbent auto makers not only have to worry about resistance to change upstream, they need to worry about downstream too.
[I hold no equity short or long position on Tesla now, have not over the past few years, and do not plan to going forward. My personal investing is outside of public markets in general.]
The Toyota engineer worried about jobs in the supply chain is just the tip of the ice berg. ICE cars are substantially more complex and require much more regular maintenance (all the way down to increased tire and brake wear).
Incumbent auto makers not only have to worry about resistance to change upstream, they need to worry about downstream too.
[I hold no equity short or long position on Tesla now, have not over the past few years, and do not plan to going forward. My personal investing is outside of public markets in general.]
Tesla is valued according to fundamentals. Look at their growth trajectory and do the math.
Sounds like you expect their growth to plateau in the next few years. That’s an fine theory, but it’s not “more fundamentals-based” than the theory it will continue for another 10 years.
Sounds like you expect their growth to plateau in the next few years. That’s an fine theory, but it’s not “more fundamentals-based” than the theory it will continue for another 10 years.
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I'm entirely with you on Tesla's market cap defying reality, but the idea that Toyota is going to buy a company with a market cap that is 75% of its own market cap it utterly ridiculous.
> Tesla hasn’t show any capacity to deliver quality cars at scale, nor provide service to them, whatever their ambitions. Combined with all their SEC problems, it’s reminiscent of Preston Tucker’s car company
What universe are you living in? Can't be the same one I'm in ... pretty cool, though, that HN has implemented a multiverse-spanning internet forum.
What universe are you living in? Can't be the same one I'm in ... pretty cool, though, that HN has implemented a multiverse-spanning internet forum.
> What universe are you living in? Can't be the same one I'm in ...
I feel the same when I see people falling for all the marketing hype around Musk and his companies.
He’s definitely inherited Jobs’ capacity for reality distortion. But Apple is still chugging on long on that, despite years of quality and design problems, so who know how it will all pan out.
I feel the same when I see people falling for all the marketing hype around Musk and his companies.
He’s definitely inherited Jobs’ capacity for reality distortion. But Apple is still chugging on long on that, despite years of quality and design problems, so who know how it will all pan out.
If you want to argue that Tesla is overvalued, there are perfectly reasonable arguments to be made in that vein. But comparing them (well on their way to half a million vehicles delivered) in the general sense with a company that folded after selling 50 cars is just absurd, and makes you look like a crank. It overshadows any trace of validity in whatever you're saying.
What about SpaceX? Their technical achievements are literally unprecedented, and they are dominating a market that has been the sole domain of an increasingly consolidated handful of incumbent military-industrial giants for the better part of a century. Dismissing those achievements as marketing hype is, again, absurd.
I am shaking my head in sad bafflement. Your whole schtick just reads like sour grapes, and why? If you want to have a real conversation about this stuff, you need to get over the edgy negativity.
What about SpaceX? Their technical achievements are literally unprecedented, and they are dominating a market that has been the sole domain of an increasingly consolidated handful of incumbent military-industrial giants for the better part of a century. Dismissing those achievements as marketing hype is, again, absurd.
I am shaking my head in sad bafflement. Your whole schtick just reads like sour grapes, and why? If you want to have a real conversation about this stuff, you need to get over the edgy negativity.
Look, despite all your overwrought labels and name calling, I don’t have as much personally invested in Musk’s success as you do. If he lives up to his hype, great, if he doesn’t, maybe we can move more quickly into an economic reality where people aren’t so invested in cults of personality as being core to valuations.
As to Space X, I don’t fall for the notion that their engineering accomplishments are somehow solely dependent on Musk. A lot of really talented people work there and have done some really incredible feats of engineering. If those were regularly attributed to them instead of with Musk, I would have greater respect for the whole enterprise.
Whether the direction they’re pushing things, the privatization of space exploration and it’s underlying research, is a good thing, is also a separate conversation that I doubt you or I would agree on.
As to Space X, I don’t fall for the notion that their engineering accomplishments are somehow solely dependent on Musk. A lot of really talented people work there and have done some really incredible feats of engineering. If those were regularly attributed to them instead of with Musk, I would have greater respect for the whole enterprise.
Whether the direction they’re pushing things, the privatization of space exploration and it’s underlying research, is a good thing, is also a separate conversation that I doubt you or I would agree on.
> I don’t have as much personally invested in Musk’s success as you do.
I don't own any Tesla products, nor do I have any direct investments in any of Musk's companies. Also, I think the guy is a literal maniac and I'd never want to work under him. I think you're far more invested in your viewpoint than I am.
> As to Space X, I don’t fall for the notion that their engineering accomplishments are somehow solely dependent on Musk. A lot of really talented people work their and have done some really incredible feats of engineering. If those were regularly attributed to them instead of with Musk, I would have greater respect for the whole enterprise.
I never said they were "solely dependent on Musk." You brought up, and I quote (with emphasis mine), the "marketing hype around Musk and his companies." I haven't mentioned Musk at all until this comment.
Reality distortion intensifies, eh? It seems that the one you're really trying to convince is yourself (via some very flimsy straw men), and it's not my job to make you see reality objectively. Good luck.
I don't own any Tesla products, nor do I have any direct investments in any of Musk's companies. Also, I think the guy is a literal maniac and I'd never want to work under him. I think you're far more invested in your viewpoint than I am.
> As to Space X, I don’t fall for the notion that their engineering accomplishments are somehow solely dependent on Musk. A lot of really talented people work their and have done some really incredible feats of engineering. If those were regularly attributed to them instead of with Musk, I would have greater respect for the whole enterprise.
I never said they were "solely dependent on Musk." You brought up, and I quote (with emphasis mine), the "marketing hype around Musk and his companies." I haven't mentioned Musk at all until this comment.
Reality distortion intensifies, eh? It seems that the one you're really trying to convince is yourself (via some very flimsy straw men), and it's not my job to make you see reality objectively. Good luck.
Go to a tesla showroom, Look at the doors of the model three. Note that they don't line up.
Look at the paint job, notice that there are bumps and chips, especailly on the edges of the doors. This is on a _demo_ car, stuck in a showroom. these should be perfect.
Even a budget Kia has better build quality than this.
Its not the isolated parts of a car that makes it good, its the whole package. (yes that works both ways. )