Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
32 comments
1. Election year, so massive BLM or similar riots in the USA.
2. The economic gap between Western/Northern European countries and the USA is increasingly acknowledged. It becomes evident that the two regions are on divergent paths. The EU promises more regulation.
3. Surveillance and control throughout society continues to increase thanks to technology. Employers over employees, states over citizens.
2. The economic gap between Western/Northern European countries and the USA is increasingly acknowledged. It becomes evident that the two regions are on divergent paths. The EU promises more regulation.
3. Surveillance and control throughout society continues to increase thanks to technology. Employers over employees, states over citizens.
My most pessimistic outlook is another 9/11 incident close to elections. It's the perfect moment - Americans are pissed with what's happening in the Middle East. They're pissed about their own quality of life and poverty. They're pissed about the poor handling of COVID and lockdowns. America's enemies may use it to provoke American policy to be more isolationist, much like it was pre-Pearl Harbor, because doubling down on the war on terror sounds like a bad idea.
It's also quite common for terrorists/rebels/etc to make moves close to elections because they expect it to be a time when govs are too tied down with campaigning to act decisively.
It's also quite common for terrorists/rebels/etc to make moves close to elections because they expect it to be a time when govs are too tied down with campaigning to act decisively.
Re 1: Could be BLM. Could be MAGA. Could be both, in different places. Could even be an armed clash between them.
Re 2: I don't know about "acknowledged". I might go with "obvious", but "acknowledged" requires people admitting it. I think it's going to be a while before that happens.
Re 2: I don't know about "acknowledged". I might go with "obvious", but "acknowledged" requires people admitting it. I think it's going to be a while before that happens.
My predictions:
1. state-space models make transformer based models obsolete
2. Cuda killer gets set loose by AMD
3. The world's first successful head transplant takes place
4. Children of Dune gets greenlit
5. Lex Friedman retires from interviewing
1. state-space models make transformer based models obsolete
2. Cuda killer gets set loose by AMD
3. The world's first successful head transplant takes place
4. Children of Dune gets greenlit
5. Lex Friedman retires from interviewing
There's no such thing as a "head transplant". The person receiving the transplant is the one whose head it is. The transplant they receive is the rest of the body. Therefore, "full body transplant" is a more accurate term.
Respectfully, I don't think you or anyone else alive right now actually knows how this would go down. The amount of interactions between organs, central nervous system, endocrine system, and brain means I'm not sure anybody involved would remain "them"
> state-space models make transformer based models obsolete
We will see whether they work on a large scale pretty soon. I hope they will, but they might not be. There're models which might outperform more advanced models on the smaller scale, and I haven't heard how Mamba performs on GPT scale.
We will see whether they work on a large scale pretty soon. I hope they will, but they might not be. There're models which might outperform more advanced models on the smaller scale, and I haven't heard how Mamba performs on GPT scale.
Which Lex? Friedman or Fridman? They both do podcasts and interviews.
Why do you think Lex will retire? Did he indicate something?
State space?
See https://srush.github.io/annotated-s4.
I also think state-space models will make a comeback.
I also think state-space models will make a comeback.
Physics is falsified by experimental evidence as Barry-1 pushes itself into a 100 km higher orbit, despite a lack of propellant. Quantized inertia makes it to the cover of Nature.
We fail to adopt Capability Based Security, and continue to suffer through security incident after incident.
Bitcoin reaches a peak of $120,000, and subsequently drops back 50%
BitGrid comes out of left field as the high performance replacement for the Turing machine in academic lessons. The fact that it turns out to be faster, yet simpler than all existing AI hardware stuns many.
We fail to adopt Capability Based Security, and continue to suffer through security incident after incident.
Bitcoin reaches a peak of $120,000, and subsequently drops back 50%
BitGrid comes out of left field as the high performance replacement for the Turing machine in academic lessons. The fact that it turns out to be faster, yet simpler than all existing AI hardware stuns many.
* Apple rumoured to be working on sunglasses similar to Meta Ray-bans
* Regulation is passed specifically to limit what artificial partners can do. Possible limitations: alignment required, limits in ERP, limits on session time. Best bet is China.
* Stronger regulation is passed to limit unauthorised cloning of people’s voices in one of the major economies. This beyond current weak IP and privacy laws.
* AI becomes a scapegoat in several major elections.
What I got right last year:
- text and image generating AI is hugely disruptive to education and content generation
This was pretty obvious
- Inflation eases, stock market recovers
Less obvious at the time but still likely
- A Twitter alternative breaks through.
Who woulda thunk that it would be Meta with Threads
- One of the big tech companies joins the fediverse (Microsoft most likely)
Once again, Meta for the win with Threads joining the fediverse
Now, nobody look back at all the predictions I made that didn’t happen.
Also, fairly gutted that Reddit hobbling its API was my 2022 prediction. I’m clearly prognosticating too far into the future.
* Regulation is passed specifically to limit what artificial partners can do. Possible limitations: alignment required, limits in ERP, limits on session time. Best bet is China.
* Stronger regulation is passed to limit unauthorised cloning of people’s voices in one of the major economies. This beyond current weak IP and privacy laws.
* AI becomes a scapegoat in several major elections.
What I got right last year:
- text and image generating AI is hugely disruptive to education and content generation
This was pretty obvious
- Inflation eases, stock market recovers
Less obvious at the time but still likely
- A Twitter alternative breaks through.
Who woulda thunk that it would be Meta with Threads
- One of the big tech companies joins the fediverse (Microsoft most likely)
Once again, Meta for the win with Threads joining the fediverse
Now, nobody look back at all the predictions I made that didn’t happen.
Also, fairly gutted that Reddit hobbling its API was my 2022 prediction. I’m clearly prognosticating too far into the future.
There will be some black swan event that dominates the elections that we have no idea about/hasn't happened yet now.
The US economy continues to roar ahead of the rest of the world, to the shock of everyone.
The April total eclipse is really cool.
The US economy continues to roar ahead of the rest of the world, to the shock of everyone.
The April total eclipse is really cool.
1. The 'swipe-based' dating app model (Tinder, Hinge, Bumble, etc) begins to implode. Driven on one hand by the rise of AI partners, and on the other hand by a resurgence of IRL in-person events.
2. The US sees its first domestic terrorist attack by consumer drone
3. A major tech company (Microsoft?) announces an enterprise competitor to the Vision Pro that only functions while tethered to a desktop PC. We see VR devices bifurcate into recreational wireless headsets and tethered enterprise models.
4. Tiktok loses market share
2. The US sees its first domestic terrorist attack by consumer drone
3. A major tech company (Microsoft?) announces an enterprise competitor to the Vision Pro that only functions while tethered to a desktop PC. We see VR devices bifurcate into recreational wireless headsets and tethered enterprise models.
4. Tiktok loses market share
Server-side WASM takes off with the re-implementation of PHP, Ruby/Rails, Python, and others, and a WASM based virtual server (shell, filesystem, web server, etc..) Cost more but has better security for both the host and user.
My prediction for 2025 is that many systems will break because their certificates were set to expire on 31DEC 2024.
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Starship gets up.
California quake.
Ukraine gets messier.
President Harris.
Guyana concessions.
Hurricane Gordon and Florida.
Atlanta/Toronto world series.
Carbondale tornado.
California quake.
Ukraine gets messier.
President Harris.
Guyana concessions.
Hurricane Gordon and Florida.
Atlanta/Toronto world series.
Carbondale tornado.
Continued war formations.
A small renaissance, rediscovery of innovation and quality in tech.
A small renaissance, rediscovery of innovation and quality in tech.
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* Trump will pick a woman for VP. But won't be Haley.
* Russia & Ukraine come to the table. Nothing of substance will be decided or agreed upon.
* Election season here will be chaotic as usual. It's a going to be a long year.
* Disinformation campaigns, now with the use of generative AI will be turned up to the max. Mainly targeting users on Tiktok, WhatsApp and Facebook.
* Biden will lose the election simply because of a divided democratic party. Gen-Z turn out will be lower than expected. Although results of the election won't be certain until well into late December, 2024 or January 2025.
* Venezuela attempts to grab parts of Guyana. The brits get involved. (They've already sent couple of naval ships into the region).
* Expectations ,excitement and investments around LLMs starts to taper off.
* Musk starts renegotiating financing to keep X going. Possibly due to pressure from investors that initially put up the money to buy twitter.
* Basically it's going to 2023, with more brush fires around the world.
* U.S economy will continue to hum along. But growth will slow a bit, due to cost of borrowing.
* Russia & Ukraine come to the table. Nothing of substance will be decided or agreed upon.
* Election season here will be chaotic as usual. It's a going to be a long year.
* Disinformation campaigns, now with the use of generative AI will be turned up to the max. Mainly targeting users on Tiktok, WhatsApp and Facebook.
* Biden will lose the election simply because of a divided democratic party. Gen-Z turn out will be lower than expected. Although results of the election won't be certain until well into late December, 2024 or January 2025.
* Venezuela attempts to grab parts of Guyana. The brits get involved. (They've already sent couple of naval ships into the region).
* Expectations ,excitement and investments around LLMs starts to taper off.
* Musk starts renegotiating financing to keep X going. Possibly due to pressure from investors that initially put up the money to buy twitter.
* Basically it's going to 2023, with more brush fires around the world.
* U.S economy will continue to hum along. But growth will slow a bit, due to cost of borrowing.
Bitcoin breaks all time high.
Trump wins 2024 election.
Ukraine has a breakthrough but war not ending.
Hamas destroyed, Israel takes over Gaza’s management and security completely.
China’s economy still in poor shape as more crises require ever more bailouts and censorship of news.
Trump wins 2024 election.
Ukraine has a breakthrough but war not ending.
Hamas destroyed, Israel takes over Gaza’s management and security completely.
China’s economy still in poor shape as more crises require ever more bailouts and censorship of news.
Elon outed as Russian agent
A Russian agent in his position would be bolstering Twitter in effort to foment an "American Arab Spring",
wouldn't they?
wouldn't they?
A competent Russian agent in his position probably would...
- AI underwhelms in terms of advancements and economic benefits (although we do get marginally better models), but politicians begin to become increasingly concerned by politically and sexuality controversial AI generated content and demand big tech does / regulators do more.
- The public continues to be increasingly gaslight as conspiracy theorists, with this becoming a major theme of the US presidential election where every candidate that isn't Biden is considered a conspiracy theorist in one way or another. Many politicians, judges and big tech CEOs believe we need to do more to prevent "conspiracy theorist" candidates like, Trump, Vivek, RFK, and their European counterparts being elected.
- Sentiment on VR shifts. Many of those previously sceptical about AR/VR acknowledge that it's likely one of the next major tech trends.
- Tensions regarding RU/UA further escalates after path to RU victory becomes clear. Many leaders dislike the the concessions UA will need to make to Russia. After reluctant peace negotiations leaders demand that UA is given long-range offensive weapons to defend themselves from further Russian attacks. European borders become more militarised. Russia continues escalate rhetoric around nuclear conflict.
- China's economy continues to stagnate.
- Economic growth in US remains "surprisingly" robust, especially when contrasted with Europe. Europe continues to blame their economic problems on Russia, the rich not paying enough tax and a lack of regulation.
Random things:
- We make a significant advancement in curing some common age-related disease like cancer or alzheimer's.
- Elon Musk dies leading to wide-spread conspiracies regarding the cause of his death. This causes Joe Rogan and others to ramp up conspiracy content in the run up to the US presidential election and are then deplatformed for spreading harmful "misinformation".
- Racial and cultural tensions in Western Europe escalate significantly. Far-right parties and narratives make significant headway, however the rise of the far-right is met equally by the rise of far-left parties and narratives. This racial and cultural division will largely define the lines of European politics this decade with all parties supporting increasingly authoritarian policies to fix the problems of the other side.
- The public continues to be increasingly gaslight as conspiracy theorists, with this becoming a major theme of the US presidential election where every candidate that isn't Biden is considered a conspiracy theorist in one way or another. Many politicians, judges and big tech CEOs believe we need to do more to prevent "conspiracy theorist" candidates like, Trump, Vivek, RFK, and their European counterparts being elected.
- Sentiment on VR shifts. Many of those previously sceptical about AR/VR acknowledge that it's likely one of the next major tech trends.
- Tensions regarding RU/UA further escalates after path to RU victory becomes clear. Many leaders dislike the the concessions UA will need to make to Russia. After reluctant peace negotiations leaders demand that UA is given long-range offensive weapons to defend themselves from further Russian attacks. European borders become more militarised. Russia continues escalate rhetoric around nuclear conflict.
- China's economy continues to stagnate.
- Economic growth in US remains "surprisingly" robust, especially when contrasted with Europe. Europe continues to blame their economic problems on Russia, the rich not paying enough tax and a lack of regulation.
Random things:
- We make a significant advancement in curing some common age-related disease like cancer or alzheimer's.
- Elon Musk dies leading to wide-spread conspiracies regarding the cause of his death. This causes Joe Rogan and others to ramp up conspiracy content in the run up to the US presidential election and are then deplatformed for spreading harmful "misinformation".
- Racial and cultural tensions in Western Europe escalate significantly. Far-right parties and narratives make significant headway, however the rise of the far-right is met equally by the rise of far-left parties and narratives. This racial and cultural division will largely define the lines of European politics this decade with all parties supporting increasingly authoritarian policies to fix the problems of the other side.
Trump, scarier AI shit.
- One prediction per list item.
Historical:
2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628
2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236
2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596
2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859
2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988
2017: none?
2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
2013: none?
2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681