Tesla releases Q1 2024 deliveries: disastrous results(electrek.co)
electrek.co
Tesla releases Q1 2024 deliveries: disastrous results
https://electrek.co/2024/04/02/tesla-releases-q1-2024-deliveries-disastrous-results/
311 comments
You're not buying quality when you buy Tesla, you're buying fashion. if you want quality buy a Toyota/Lexus.
I'm a big fan of Toyota Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime. (High efficiency vehicles, Prius Prime is #1 most green car of ACEEE list, etc. etc.). But people buying Tesla aren't aligned to Toyota.
But a better match to culture is likely Jeep Wrangler 4xe. Incredible offroading performance, reasonable towing capacity, large size / in-your-face advertising to some extent. And electrified, so that your daily commute is efficient and environmentally friendly.
Etc. etc. There's a lot of competition these days. People who buy Toyota / Honda are people who care #1 about reliability and simplicity.
But "Tesla Buyers" are more excited about niche features or feeling like their car can do something other cars cannot do (even if they never actually use that feature). And honestly, vehicles like Jeep Wrangler 4xe are best suited for that mindset.
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Or the new Dodge Charger EV. Now that Stellantis is making their EV push, I think Stellantis has better branding for what the stereotypical Tesla Buyer is going for... without the awfulness associated with Elon.
But a better match to culture is likely Jeep Wrangler 4xe. Incredible offroading performance, reasonable towing capacity, large size / in-your-face advertising to some extent. And electrified, so that your daily commute is efficient and environmentally friendly.
Etc. etc. There's a lot of competition these days. People who buy Toyota / Honda are people who care #1 about reliability and simplicity.
But "Tesla Buyers" are more excited about niche features or feeling like their car can do something other cars cannot do (even if they never actually use that feature). And honestly, vehicles like Jeep Wrangler 4xe are best suited for that mindset.
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Or the new Dodge Charger EV. Now that Stellantis is making their EV push, I think Stellantis has better branding for what the stereotypical Tesla Buyer is going for... without the awfulness associated with Elon.
Naw, I and many people probably cross shopped Toyota's Prius Prime and Rav4 Prime with the Tesla Model Y. As of last fall and early this year, both models were barely to be found in Northern Virginia, and if you could find one within hours of where I live they were under huge dealership-fuckery with options and markups.
When I finally was able to test drive a standard 2023 Prius, I decided its cargo space was way too small for what I was looking for. When test driving a Rav4 (not Prime) I decided its visibility (for me, maybe this is highly personal) was absolutely terrible compared to the Model Y. Model Y prices were VERY competitive compared to Rav4 Primes anyway, so that's what I went with. I've been very happy with it.
When I finally was able to test drive a standard 2023 Prius, I decided its cargo space was way too small for what I was looking for. When test driving a Rav4 (not Prime) I decided its visibility (for me, maybe this is highly personal) was absolutely terrible compared to the Model Y. Model Y prices were VERY competitive compared to Rav4 Primes anyway, so that's what I went with. I've been very happy with it.
> electrified, so that your daily commute is efficient and environmentally friendly.
Moving an off-road vehicle of over two tons to transport (usually) one person to work seems neither efficient nor environmentally friendly. The vehicle being electric doesn’t change that, as the electricity has to be generated somewhere.
Moving an off-road vehicle of over two tons to transport (usually) one person to work seems neither efficient nor environmentally friendly. The vehicle being electric doesn’t change that, as the electricity has to be generated somewhere.
I do nominally agree with you. But I'm also pretty sure I can't convince my coworker or my sister-in-law to switch off of their Jeep.
But switching them to a Jeep Wrangler 4xe is much easier. They seem more amendable to that idea, because they want an offroading vehicle so much. I do think its a bit of a "cosplay" situation because they only do offroading one or two times per year, but ... yeah.
Anyway, getting +5 MPG and electrifying the overall drive of a Jeep will save a ton of fuel. If I can't convince them to drive efficiently with a Corolla, I'm still happy to convince them to get a more environmentally friendly decision here.
But switching them to a Jeep Wrangler 4xe is much easier. They seem more amendable to that idea, because they want an offroading vehicle so much. I do think its a bit of a "cosplay" situation because they only do offroading one or two times per year, but ... yeah.
Anyway, getting +5 MPG and electrifying the overall drive of a Jeep will save a ton of fuel. If I can't convince them to drive efficiently with a Corolla, I'm still happy to convince them to get a more environmentally friendly decision here.
We have EV sports cars, SUV, trucks and package vans but I have not seen an EV passenger van.
I suppose they are out of fashion right now but honestly that is the form factor that I would be most interested in. I could use it for both home projects but also with the longer body it would have have a fairly decent range so wouldn't be bad for the family road trips. I don't like the idea of having to stop every 2 or 3 hours, 4 would be more ideal.
I suppose they are out of fashion right now but honestly that is the form factor that I would be most interested in. I could use it for both home projects but also with the longer body it would have have a fairly decent range so wouldn't be bad for the family road trips. I don't like the idea of having to stop every 2 or 3 hours, 4 would be more ideal.
Chrysler Pacifica PHEV should be mostly electric on daily drives and then gasoline for the long trips.
Honestly, passenger van / road trip vehicle makes the most sense in PHEV form factor out of all other styles IMO.
Honestly, passenger van / road trip vehicle makes the most sense in PHEV form factor out of all other styles IMO.
Yes on paper this looks like a great and very practical vehicle for many people, but boy am I hesitant to buy a Chrysler product with this amount of drivetrain complexity. You've got everything that can fail in a fairly high tech ICE drivetrain, plus everything that can fail in an EV drivetrain, made by the lowest reliability major automaker.
> You've got everything that can fail in a fairly high tech ICE drivetrain, plus everything that can fail in an EV drivetrain
You should seriously look up the drivetrain of hybrids.
The planetary gearset is a single set of gears that functions as the alternator/generator, the starter/EV motor, the transmission, and the engine driveshaft.
Its not "different" or "new" components. Its a singular design that accomplishes what 3x different parts of the car used to do seperately. There's a reason why Toyota Hybrids are $23k, its a lot cheaper and more efficient to do it this way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofycaXByTc
You needed the starter anyway. When its beefed up to a full-size EV motor that can drive the car, its more powerful and more durable.
You needed the alternator anyway. When its beefed up to a full-sized generator, its more powerful and more durable.
When the ICE engine operates at its ideal RPM (rather than directly connected to the road), it can be made cheaper, more reliable, smaller, more efficiently than when its the only thing moving the car.
Hybrids are superior to ICE, and Prius shows how to do it with more reliability. Now yes, Chrysler is terrible with reliability, but that's nothing to do with Hybrids and everything to do with Chrysler.
You should seriously look up the drivetrain of hybrids.
The planetary gearset is a single set of gears that functions as the alternator/generator, the starter/EV motor, the transmission, and the engine driveshaft.
Its not "different" or "new" components. Its a singular design that accomplishes what 3x different parts of the car used to do seperately. There's a reason why Toyota Hybrids are $23k, its a lot cheaper and more efficient to do it this way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofycaXByTc
You needed the starter anyway. When its beefed up to a full-size EV motor that can drive the car, its more powerful and more durable.
You needed the alternator anyway. When its beefed up to a full-sized generator, its more powerful and more durable.
When the ICE engine operates at its ideal RPM (rather than directly connected to the road), it can be made cheaper, more reliable, smaller, more efficiently than when its the only thing moving the car.
Hybrids are superior to ICE, and Prius shows how to do it with more reliability. Now yes, Chrysler is terrible with reliability, but that's nothing to do with Hybrids and everything to do with Chrysler.
The Volkswagen ID.Buzz (sic) is supposed to start selling in the US this summer.
I bought a new Wrangler last year, and I was sorely tempted by the 4xe, but Chrysler's track record with electronics is pretty poor. I'd lease one, but I don't think I'd buy one.
I don't think that's true.
I think tesla has the most features of any EV. They started off with a clean slate and have done quite well. Their EVs have had the best Coefficient of Drag, have had state-of-the-art batteries, and some amazing motors as far as efficiency and/or power.
Unfortunately, they started cheaping out. No dashboard on the model 3 and too many functions on the touchscreen, like defrost.
They've done this sort of thing with every iteration, and now the latest cars have no gearshift lever/stalk (car guesses which direction you want), there are no stalks for turn signal, wipers, flashing headlights, etc.
the newest steering wheel moved many of these functions to touch areas on the wheel itself horn wipers. And the buttons move with the wheel, so you need to take that into account when you aren't going straight. what if you're on a curve and need to access wipers?
The touchscreen is a mess. First, the moving touchscreen is incredibly hard to touch in a moving vehicle and there is nowhere to rest your hand while you attempt it. For example, turning on the defrost or fog lights.
I sort of wish the NHTSA extended the rules requiring a dedicated emergency flasher button to more of these critical functions a good driver needs to access directly.
The FAA and the military take this stuff seriously for aircraft. They investigate accidents, and if a confusing control is the cause, they follow up and make changes. If only the millions of drivers of cars had someone to get their back.
I think tesla has the most features of any EV. They started off with a clean slate and have done quite well. Their EVs have had the best Coefficient of Drag, have had state-of-the-art batteries, and some amazing motors as far as efficiency and/or power.
Unfortunately, they started cheaping out. No dashboard on the model 3 and too many functions on the touchscreen, like defrost.
They've done this sort of thing with every iteration, and now the latest cars have no gearshift lever/stalk (car guesses which direction you want), there are no stalks for turn signal, wipers, flashing headlights, etc.
the newest steering wheel moved many of these functions to touch areas on the wheel itself horn wipers. And the buttons move with the wheel, so you need to take that into account when you aren't going straight. what if you're on a curve and need to access wipers?
The touchscreen is a mess. First, the moving touchscreen is incredibly hard to touch in a moving vehicle and there is nowhere to rest your hand while you attempt it. For example, turning on the defrost or fog lights.
I sort of wish the NHTSA extended the rules requiring a dedicated emergency flasher button to more of these critical functions a good driver needs to access directly.
The FAA and the military take this stuff seriously for aircraft. They investigate accidents, and if a confusing control is the cause, they follow up and make changes. If only the millions of drivers of cars had someone to get their back.
I got a Tesla (model Y) because I wanted an reasonably priced family EV with long range. It seemed to be the best choice, and so far I'm not disappointed.
I'm not gonna get another Tesla, but not because I dislike the brand, rather because one buys so few cars in one's life that it's more interesting to get something else.
I'm not gonna get another Tesla, but not because I dislike the brand, rather because one buys so few cars in one's life that it's more interesting to get something else.
I don’t think either had an EV option suiting my needs when we bought a Model X? Meaning able to seat 6-7 humans and ~300 miles of range in the battery pack?
Do they even have a viable option today? (I’m unaware how the Lexus electrification is going.)
Do they even have a viable option today? (I’m unaware how the Lexus electrification is going.)
Forget Toyota/Lexus, that's a bit of a red herring - the point is that there was literally no competition for Tesla in three-row electric vehicles when you bought yours.
Now, you have the choice of a Mercedes-Benz EQB or EQS, a Rivian R1S (as you chose) or a Kia EV9 with Lucid, Hyundai and VW all with products about to enter the market.
Now, you have the choice of a Mercedes-Benz EQB or EQS, a Rivian R1S (as you chose) or a Kia EV9 with Lucid, Hyundai and VW all with products about to enter the market.
Toyota Motor North America sold over 200k "electrified" vehicles in the first quarter 2024. Their sales alone could account for the unsold Teslas.
https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-repo...
Those are mostly hybrids, but reportedly, U.S. sales of gas-electric hybrid vehicles surge and electric-vehicle sales cool
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-aut...
https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-repo...
Those are mostly hybrids, but reportedly, U.S. sales of gas-electric hybrid vehicles surge and electric-vehicle sales cool
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-aut...
As for Toyota, 6-7 humans, it's either hybrid or you're SOL. I think the GP might have been referring to ICE?
The thing is, I'd say Rivian is considerably more fashionable at this point. The only problem with them is potentially going out of business.
It's not fashionable either by any stretch of the imagination.
I'm buying a budget EV with the model 3. I'm pretty happy with that.
Yeah, and the twitter opinions are really stinking up the brand so depending on your social group you may want to look elsewhere.
Maybe Elon can get conservatives to buy EVs to "own the libs." Godspeed on that, but so far it doesn't seem to be working.
Maybe Elon can get conservatives to buy EVs to "own the libs." Godspeed on that, but so far it doesn't seem to be working.
One of my coworkers bought a Model S. At first he was always going on about how amazing it was. Then within the first year he started having all kinds of problems with it. He's now in the middle of a lawsuit trying to get a refund on it.
S and X are not their bread and butter. Look at how well LFP 3's and y's hold up.
LFP is for base, low-range models; Panasonic's NCA for the mid/perf trims and the MY in the US.
Tesla's QC problem is serious and still affects all EVs made in the US -- the batteries in these EVs have little to do with it.
Tesla's QC problem is serious and still affects all EVs made in the US -- the batteries in these EVs have little to do with it.
It’s important to discern drivetrain problems vs trim imperfections. I know X/S are expensive, but buying Tesla you have to accept some of the interior and exterior will not be as MB, but you do get some other benefits. These issues have nothing to do with reliability/longevity.
I have had the exact opposite experience w/ both of my cars, multiple friends have had the opposite experience also - what is your point?
Could it be that Musk's inflammatory language and behaviors are a turn off for potential buyers? They are a turn off for me. I like the vehicles but I'd never get one.
Yep. I am a current Tesla Model 3 owner, really like my car, but plan to switch to another brand after running this one into the ground. Elon's behavior is awful and dangerous given his fame/money, and luckily, unlike in 2017, there are now other good EV options which are getting better all the time.
I recently saw a Tesla that had a “No Elon” magnet on the back. (Red circle over white background, with a diagonal red line through the word “ELON.”)
I talked to the owner who said that his wife had custom ordered it.
I talked to the owner who said that his wife had custom ordered it.
How is the charging situation? I remember that everyone announced NACS and compatibility with the Tesla network a while ago, has that happened or is it still just promises?
Technically still just promises, but the timelines are all in the 1-3 year range, which seems about right for a manufacturing and support line change. I think Hyundai/Kia plan to start shipping native NACS cars this year.
It's in progress, I think. Ford and Rivian just gained access to the network about a month or so ago, and I think that other manufacturers will be added over the next year or two.
> after running this one into the ground
Oh, come on. Don't wait another 25 years! /s
Oh, come on. Don't wait another 25 years! /s
This seems to be the case for some online communities, but in my offline circles (Asians working in tech in the PNW) no one seems to care. Driving on the street it seems every other car is a Tesla, and by and large everyone is pretty happy with them. I wouldn't say we're particularly pro-Tesla either, it's just that they were the best cars for the money at the time.
As more car manufacturers start to deliver good EVs, I think you'll start to see more variety in the EVs on the road. For example my next car after the cybertruck could be a Rivian or an electric van, if someone finally decides to make one.
As more car manufacturers start to deliver good EVs, I think you'll start to see more variety in the EVs on the road. For example my next car after the cybertruck could be a Rivian or an electric van, if someone finally decides to make one.
Same here in Frisco, Texas. Teslas are so common here and pretty much it is always Asians driving them. I keep hearing that Tesla is the new Toyota.
But talking with some of the Tesla owners, many feel embarrassed by Elon. Many say that they will not buy another Tesla or they have some other reasoning to justify their purchase (like Elon has gone crazy but we shouldn't punish the entire company for it etc)
But talking with some of the Tesla owners, many feel embarrassed by Elon. Many say that they will not buy another Tesla or they have some other reasoning to justify their purchase (like Elon has gone crazy but we shouldn't punish the entire company for it etc)
Forget the content of what Musk says, the fact that he's on Twitter so much seems like a bad sign if you're a Tesla shareholder. His attention is already split between 3-4 companies, if he's tweeting all day on top of that how much attention is Tesla and its problems/opportunities getting?
A business who had an assistant manager who spent this much time on Twitter during business hours would've written a pink slip a long time ago. Investors/BODs are shockingly forgiving. How is he creating value when he's spending half his time being a keyboard culture warrior?
> how much attention is Tesla and its problems/opportunities getting
Judging by the fragmented and meandering Highland/Juniper roll-out, none.
The company seems to be running on autopilot (or should I say, full self-driving), where local management is making local decisions out of sync with the rest of the company to try and save another quarter. Which is clearly not working anymore.
Judging by the fragmented and meandering Highland/Juniper roll-out, none.
The company seems to be running on autopilot (or should I say, full self-driving), where local management is making local decisions out of sync with the rest of the company to try and save another quarter. Which is clearly not working anymore.
While Musk’s attention was certainly a key asset in Tesla’s early years, I’m not sure that his attention is still a net positive.
For me it's this + going overboard on minimalism (speed only on center screen, turn signals now buttons, wiper controls on touch screen). It's a shame because there's a lot to like about the model 3.
Personally I’d never buy one for that reason. Would never work for one of his companies either. I don’t want to contribute to his wealth.
It's such a shame that he's sullying his reputation like this. Howard Hughes-like.
He could have retired in a blaze of glory a couple of years ago, straight into the pantheon of epic American entrepreneurs.
He could have retired in a blaze of glory a couple of years ago, straight into the pantheon of epic American entrepreneurs.
His behavior isn't the only Howard Hughes callback. The entire Cybertruck project screams it.
I didn't think about the parallel to the Spruce Goose, but it's a fair comparison. Honestly, it seems to happen to a lot of megalomaniac, ivory-tower type creators - the urge to build something to top their last creation (and for all his faults, Elon does have some really impressive creations behind him). The other example that jumps to mind is George Lucas with the Star Wars prequels.
The Star Wars prequels are not comparable to the Spruce Goose. The Star Wars prequels did exactly what they intended to do: sell toys so George could maintain the independence of Lucasfilm.
The fact those movies are terrible is irrelevant.
The fact those movies are terrible is irrelevant.
> The other example that jumps to mind is George Lucas with the Star Wars prequels.
These were by far not as bad as some people tend to paint them, the problem with the Star Wars prequels IMHO was more that the "old guard" fanbase tends to be quite the whiny bunch.
The sequels are another topic entirely - these were corporate driven projects which isn't a bad sign per se (see the MCU), but unlike the MCU there wasn't a central person like Kevin Feige who actually took care about a cohesive storyline, directors and script writers kept changing, and the SW universe unlike Star Trek or MCU doesn't have a concept of multiple/alternate realities or time travel so a ton of lore went down the drain for nothing.
These were by far not as bad as some people tend to paint them, the problem with the Star Wars prequels IMHO was more that the "old guard" fanbase tends to be quite the whiny bunch.
The sequels are another topic entirely - these were corporate driven projects which isn't a bad sign per se (see the MCU), but unlike the MCU there wasn't a central person like Kevin Feige who actually took care about a cohesive storyline, directors and script writers kept changing, and the SW universe unlike Star Trek or MCU doesn't have a concept of multiple/alternate realities or time travel so a ton of lore went down the drain for nothing.
They’re just stories. A future Disney could declare 7-9 non-canon and redo the lore.
Apparently Henry Ford bought a newspaper (the Dearborn Independent) to publish his opinions on jews. History sure does rhyme. What is it with car CEOs?
If it rhymes this much, it's bad news for Musk but fantastic for Tesla. Ford has generated a ridiculous amount of shareholder returns over the years and makes good cars today.
And Ford was hardly alone collaborating with Nazis:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39888684
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39888684
South African entrepreneurs?
EDIT: I had heard he was South African. Googled it though: "South African-born American businessman" so I guess he is American now. Thanks.
EDIT: I had heard he was South African. Googled it though: "South African-born American businessman" so I guess he is American now. Thanks.
He's a US citizen, he lives in the US, and his companies are headquartered in the US. "American" is definitely an appropriate label here.
You seem not American.
To Americans, being born to a different nationality doesn't preclude you from being considered a full and true American. First generation immigrants and naturalized citizens tend to be completely accepted as equals by natural born citizens, so long as they are productive and not criminally destructive.
I do understand that this tends to not be the case in many other countries, where even second generation immigrants may not be fully accepted because ethnic identity is so deeply entwined in nationality in most countries.
To Americans, being born to a different nationality doesn't preclude you from being considered a full and true American. First generation immigrants and naturalized citizens tend to be completely accepted as equals by natural born citizens, so long as they are productive and not criminally destructive.
I do understand that this tends to not be the case in many other countries, where even second generation immigrants may not be fully accepted because ethnic identity is so deeply entwined in nationality in most countries.
You would have to admit that passing the "looks white to me" test helps a lot in being culturally accepted as an American. You don't have to go very far to find counter examples. Even in this comment section people talk about "Asians" driving Tesla's - regardless of the fact they maybe second or third generation Americans.
The way you put it, it would seem odd to me to mention someone's ethnicity unless it was somehow relevant to the conversation.
Without context though my generous assumption is that when they say "Asian driving a Tesla" they mean "Asian-American driving a Tesla" and are lazy rather than racist.
Without context though my generous assumption is that when they say "Asian driving a Tesla" they mean "Asian-American driving a Tesla" and are lazy rather than racist.
I don't think they were being racist for what it's worth.
Putting it another way, if Elon Musk was born in South Africa and happened to be black, I doubt he'd so easily be given a pass as an American. Every article would start "South-african born entrepreneur Elon Musk..."
Putting it another way, if Elon Musk was born in South Africa and happened to be black, I doubt he'd so easily be given a pass as an American. Every article would start "South-african born entrepreneur Elon Musk..."
Very unlikely, Bezos & Gates basically did that and they are still massive targets of criticism.
If Elon had decided to just roll over a couple years ago and do everything the media asked him to do (shutdown the Fremont factory during covid, stop "polluting the sky" with starlink, rely on a nice unionized automaker like GM to "lead the EV revolution") Tesla & SpaceX wouldn't exist today.
If Elon had decided to just roll over a couple years ago and do everything the media asked him to do (shutdown the Fremont factory during covid, stop "polluting the sky" with starlink, rely on a nice unionized automaker like GM to "lead the EV revolution") Tesla & SpaceX wouldn't exist today.
None of that shit actually matters to the people who despise Elon.
No, it’s the fascist-friendly sex-mongering racist rhetoric that gets most people.
Even that could be explained the way if it weren’t for his inept business moves with Twitter and ugly cybertruck.
Jobs proved you can be worshipped while being an eccentric asshole if you’re at least competent.
No, it’s the fascist-friendly sex-mongering racist rhetoric that gets most people.
Even that could be explained the way if it weren’t for his inept business moves with Twitter and ugly cybertruck.
Jobs proved you can be worshipped while being an eccentric asshole if you’re at least competent.
The vast majority of the world doesn't exist in the online sphere.
I think that they have saturated the initial EV buyers, mainstream is still afraid of EV and there's more anti-EV propaganda in the media than ever before.
I think that they have saturated the initial EV buyers, mainstream is still afraid of EV and there's more anti-EV propaganda in the media than ever before.
1. The vast majority of the world isn't buying Teslas, either
2. Musk is one of few figures whose controversies escape the online world, though. Like the "pedo diver" thing, it was an international story with world attention and he jammed himself in the middle of it.
That said, I'm also not convinced his reputation is the reason for shipments to drop precipitously. But it could absolutely be a contributing factor.
2. Musk is one of few figures whose controversies escape the online world, though. Like the "pedo diver" thing, it was an international story with world attention and he jammed himself in the middle of it.
That said, I'm also not convinced his reputation is the reason for shipments to drop precipitously. But it could absolutely be a contributing factor.
> The vast majority of the world doesn't exist in the online sphere.
I wonder if the vast majority of potential Tesla customers does though.
I wonder if the vast majority of potential Tesla customers does though.
The vast majority of the world doesn't exist in the online sphere.
You don't think there's a significant overlap between prospective Tesla buyers and people who are familiar with Musk's hijinks?
Some of it is propaganda, and some of it is a direct result of Tesla's design choices. It would be ironic if Tesla helped give EVs a bad name with novelty "features" like electric door latches and a lack of mechanical controls.
He's supporting a dictator that launched a full scale war in Europe. Hard no for me.
There are other practical reasons too, but I am literally never going to buy a Tesla. It’s just never going to happen.
He’s made it his mission to insult me on a personal level. One dollar equals one vote so I pay attention where mine go.
He’s made it his mission to insult me on a personal level. One dollar equals one vote so I pay attention where mine go.
[deleted]
I'm in the market for an EV for the first time and won't consider a Tesla due to him going full mask off on Twitter over the last year.
Honestly, he has been on a tear alienating the primary pool of Tesla buyers and appealing to a group that denies climate change and would never buy an electric car. I used to hear praise of Musk constantly from other folks in software 10 years ago and all that positive buzz is gone.
Yes. I am a Y owner and in for a 2nd EV. But waiting until Rivian R2.
> "Whether you hate me, like me or are indifferent, do you want the best car, or do you not want the best car?"
... only works when you're making the best car. There are a lot of very competitive EV alternatives now.
... only works when you're making the best car. There are a lot of very competitive EV alternatives now.
Even if I wanted a Tesla, it wouldn’t pass the partner acceptance test for me. My partner is aware of the quality issues, but beyond that, she (like me) can’t help but cringe at the optics of owning a Musk-mobile.
If you want to be a loudmouth dick online and intertwine your persona with that of your companies for #traction, it cuts both ways.
If you want to be a loudmouth dick online and intertwine your persona with that of your companies for #traction, it cuts both ways.
It's funny how different cultures view things so differently. My wife (Chinese) and her circle of friends are pretty much the opposite. They used to all get BMWs/Mercedes but with how practical EVs are, the default choice is now Tesla. I think they're somewhat aware of Elon's shenanigans but it's all chalked up to "silly American politics" so no one cares.
This may be related as well, in a smaller way: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-...
I ask owners of other EV vehicles how they like their car, and >50% of my sample size of ~10 bring up "at least it's not owned by that crazy man" as a big reason as they explain the other deficiencies. (Mostly bad controls, UX, etc. stuff that the Tesla gets right.)
I have a Tesla Model 3 right now and it's my favorite car ever, by far, but I also will be unlikely to buy another tesla. It's not the same company as six years ago.
I have a Tesla Model 3 right now and it's my favorite car ever, by far, but I also will be unlikely to buy another tesla. It's not the same company as six years ago.
I chose a Kia eNiro because it had ”bad” but predictable controls/UX. Basically a normal, boring car with dedicated buttons for most things, but with a EV drivetrain.
Same with my Kia EV6. After driving my old Kia Rondo for 15 years, I felt right at home in the EV6. Traditional stalks for lights and wipers, all kinds of dedicated buttons, familiar and comfortable.
Kia went to quite some work to make it feel like a regular car.
Kia went to quite some work to make it feel like a regular car.
You have basically found the Reddit /r/technology contingency. Most stories I see there are laughing at a single man's failures. There's just a lot of hate. I wanted a Tesla because other friends and family let me ride in theirs. I liked the car. I also like Chick-fil-a Chicken, and Papa Johns Pizza. From time to time, I visit Hobby Lobby. If I did digging on EVERY CEO, and found things that I disagreed with, I'd likely have few places left to shop. Instead, I try to focus on the other "non-crazy" folks that work at these places.
When it comes to Tesla technology... it's actually really good.
When it comes to Tesla technology... it's actually really good.
I don't know anything about r/technology, but I do know that Musk has alienated his core customer base, and is continually making massive noise about politics, unlike most other CEOs. And even more stupidly, he is aligning with an anti-EV, anti-solar, anti-energy storage political faction in his attempt to alienate early adopters. Makes him seem extremely weak and self-hating.
And that's before all the bad decisions in the direction of the product over the past six years. Musk's made a great product far worse by being so involved and making boldly bad decisions left and right.
And that's before all the bad decisions in the direction of the product over the past six years. Musk's made a great product far worse by being so involved and making boldly bad decisions left and right.
> Mostly bad controls, UX, etc. stuff that the Tesla gets right.
What? Tesla's controls are ass. They're infotainment responsiveness is great, but the turn signal steering wheel buttons, windshield wipers, drive mode select, etc... are all absolutely horrible.
It's literally the reason we passed on the Model 3 & S when shopping for an EV. The extra 20-60 miles of range wasn't worth it to put up with that nonsense.
What? Tesla's controls are ass. They're infotainment responsiveness is great, but the turn signal steering wheel buttons, windshield wipers, drive mode select, etc... are all absolutely horrible.
It's literally the reason we passed on the Model 3 & S when shopping for an EV. The extra 20-60 miles of range wasn't worth it to put up with that nonsense.
That's just for the cars with that yoke steering wheel, right? The controls for the more "normal" cars is pretty intuitive. Except for headlights. I don't know why it couldn't just have a switch for headlights.
No, it's for all of them. The Model 3 was updated to also have the stalks taken away and the PRND controls moved to the roof
https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_eu/GUID-A5F2B9D...
https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_eu/GUID-A5F2B9D...
I have a 2018 Tesla, which got those things right. One of the ways the company has changed in the past six years is to mess up those controls.
Funny, I'm considering buying our second Tesla (to replace my BMW) because the company _is_ run by Musk. I'm also big fan of not dictating what other people should say, and find his direct communication style refreshing, even though I disagree with some of his opinions. And that's before we even bring up several other areas where he's successfully doing civilizationally impactful work.
All I’ll say is: don’t advertise your lust for a Muslkian “direct” communication style during job interviews. All I’m hearing is “terrible to work with”.
I’m sure you’ll appreciate the direct nature in which I communicated this, even if you disagree with it.
I’m sure you’ll appreciate the direct nature in which I communicated this, even if you disagree with it.
I no longer do "job interviews". People ask me whether I'd like to come work for them. Sometimes, I go and work for them.
Your communication style is not direct enough for me I'm afraid, clearly you feel quite a bit more passionate about this than you let on. People must say what you permit, and never stray from the approved narratives, or else. Be careful to not mention that in job interviews.
Your communication style is not direct enough for me I'm afraid, clearly you feel quite a bit more passionate about this than you let on. People must say what you permit, and never stray from the approved narratives, or else. Be careful to not mention that in job interviews.
>even though I disagree with some of his opinions
Let me guess, nothing that's part his core believes?
Let me guess, nothing that's part his core believes?
Yes, I do believe our species needs to be multiplanetary, internet should be available everywhere, electric cars need to take over, and paralyzed people should be able to walk again.
We share the same goals (except for electric cars needing to take over - they do, but the real issue is that public mass transit needs to take over!), but the methods / the lengths Elon Musk is willing to go to in pursuit of those goals are disturbing to many people.
I don't think public mass transit will take over in the US in my lifetime, outside major cities. We're just too spread out, and a lot of us, especially people with kids, like it that way. Mass transit absolutely, positively does not work in the US if you have at least one child.
> Mass transit absolutely, positively does not work in the US if you have at least one child.
Kind of a confusing statement. Sure the current state doesn't work in the US, which is because it isn't designed to work and there is little to no investment or money spent on public transit. You can know that this is factually true by looking at your state department of highways budgets and examining how funds are allocated.
It does work in other countries, including countries that have parents with children. There is no logistical or cost-based reason it won't or couldn't work in the US. Nothing special about "spread out" - which is another choice we intentionally make or the size of the country. It's also mostly untrue since most of the population in the US lives in urban areas. Suburban areas can just continue to grow as is and become more dense while preserving SFHs.
Kind of a confusing statement. Sure the current state doesn't work in the US, which is because it isn't designed to work and there is little to no investment or money spent on public transit. You can know that this is factually true by looking at your state department of highways budgets and examining how funds are allocated.
It does work in other countries, including countries that have parents with children. There is no logistical or cost-based reason it won't or couldn't work in the US. Nothing special about "spread out" - which is another choice we intentionally make or the size of the country. It's also mostly untrue since most of the population in the US lives in urban areas. Suburban areas can just continue to grow as is and become more dense while preserving SFHs.
_Transit_ is not what needs to change first. Infrastructure (stores, schools, daycares, hospitals, offices) needs to change before mass transit is even feasible. And that needs to be built out over an extended period of time, like 15-20 years, to have good coverage. This is particularly hard to grasp for someone who has never lived in Europe, which I have. So we “invest” in mass transit which (at least in my neck of the woods) almost nobody uses because it’s 10 minute drive to the grocery store and 15 minute drive to school, and both of those numbers triple or quadruple without a car. And now consider your kids extracurriculars, like swim team or something. And now consider having 2-3 kids. Cars are here to stay. To refrain from improving them would be like not doing anything about energy generation until we have fusion, which probably also won’t happen in my lifetime
> Infrastructure (stores, schools, daycares, hospitals, offices) needs to change before mass transit is even feasible. And that needs to be built out over an extended period of time, like 15-20 years, to have good coverage.
It's a chicken and egg problem in the end. A government has it easier to just dump funds for 10-20 years onto public transit subsidies (and provide the guarantee to the third parties you mention that any investment they make isn't going to be in vain) than if it convinces and pays off all these third parties to change before there is a viable public transit system.
It's a chicken and egg problem in the end. A government has it easier to just dump funds for 10-20 years onto public transit subsidies (and provide the guarantee to the third parties you mention that any investment they make isn't going to be in vain) than if it convinces and pays off all these third parties to change before there is a viable public transit system.
In much of the US you can’t even build places people would need to walk to within walkable distance, due to zoning. A bus which takes 30 minutes to take you to the grocery store is barely any better than no public transportation at all. I haven’t used public transportation even once in the last 15 years. I sometimes check how long it’d take to get to the places I need to be however. Grocery store trip turns from 9 minutes into 36 each way. Going to work takes 25 minutes by car or an hour and a half by bus, each way. Dropping off my kid at his soccer practice? 8 vs about half an hour, each way. Idk where you people live that you think spending 3 hours daily on a bus is feasible or desirable, let alone logistically possible.
Cities in those countries, for the most part, were built around public transit. As a result, navigating by car is difficult and sometimes costly.
Retrofitting public transit into a city designed for cars at that same scale is unbelievably expensive before the costs of changing public opinion are factored in.
I say this as someone who dislikes what suburbs have become and would _love_ to see public transit proliferate throughout the US.
Retrofitting public transit into a city designed for cars at that same scale is unbelievably expensive before the costs of changing public opinion are factored in.
I say this as someone who dislikes what suburbs have become and would _love_ to see public transit proliferate throughout the US.
Where I live I’m Columbus I can still see the trolly tracks lining my streets. Buildings were torn down to pave over for parking lots. There is not this extensive retrofit that needs to occur for many American cities, it just needs to be funded.
In my home state of Ohio and in my home town we are spending a billion dollars to build a new ramp and make some other changes to a highway that was built well after the city was founded to make it “easier” for car traffic. We have the money. We are just choosing to spend it only on car infrastructure.
I do agree about public opinion though. But fortunately attitudes amongst millennials and Gen Z seem to be strongly in favor of better transit and more dense development patterns.
In my home state of Ohio and in my home town we are spending a billion dollars to build a new ramp and make some other changes to a highway that was built well after the city was founded to make it “easier” for car traffic. We have the money. We are just choosing to spend it only on car infrastructure.
I do agree about public opinion though. But fortunately attitudes amongst millennials and Gen Z seem to be strongly in favor of better transit and more dense development patterns.
Where I live I'm Sam Houston ;)
The city named after me was also founded (1836) purposefully on undeveloped land and planned from the beginning to become an urban center and territory capital.
Within 3 decades of when Columbus got going, so I would have to say they both have a downtown layout that was originally designed for horses and horse-powered vehicles to begin with. And to accommodate a lot more horses in the future than there were in the area at the time.
Plus think of the gig workers. I can only imagine one of the blocks where people are waiting for an Uber today, is where early residents were once waiting for a Wells-Fargo coach. Once the Wells-Fargo startup was able to leverage being online 24/7, at your local telegraph office ;)
Streetcars came in the late 1800's and I would expect tracks were laid on what could be considered thoroughfares.
There was probably quite a bit of urban character by then and a good chance it was the rapid transit offered by the march of technology, rather than the mass transit aspect that was most appreciated by the riders. Houston already had horse-powered "buses" before this.
Next thing you know, a few decades later there's Model T's and you can really save tonnes of animal feed while helping the environment (at the time) at the same time. They all shared the roads even if it was not all horses and pedestrians as intended any more.
After years of mass-production, it would be like cars are reproducing faster than horses and taking over the place, car owners would have growing influence. Plus if for some reason older mass-transit hardware were deteriorating at a faster rate than the payer could justify reversing, there would be increasing incentive to eventually throw in the towel and let people drive themselves around.
It could happen ;)
Technology marches on but the mainstream beats the most heavily-trodden path.
The city named after me was also founded (1836) purposefully on undeveloped land and planned from the beginning to become an urban center and territory capital.
Within 3 decades of when Columbus got going, so I would have to say they both have a downtown layout that was originally designed for horses and horse-powered vehicles to begin with. And to accommodate a lot more horses in the future than there were in the area at the time.
Plus think of the gig workers. I can only imagine one of the blocks where people are waiting for an Uber today, is where early residents were once waiting for a Wells-Fargo coach. Once the Wells-Fargo startup was able to leverage being online 24/7, at your local telegraph office ;)
Streetcars came in the late 1800's and I would expect tracks were laid on what could be considered thoroughfares.
There was probably quite a bit of urban character by then and a good chance it was the rapid transit offered by the march of technology, rather than the mass transit aspect that was most appreciated by the riders. Houston already had horse-powered "buses" before this.
Next thing you know, a few decades later there's Model T's and you can really save tonnes of animal feed while helping the environment (at the time) at the same time. They all shared the roads even if it was not all horses and pedestrians as intended any more.
After years of mass-production, it would be like cars are reproducing faster than horses and taking over the place, car owners would have growing influence. Plus if for some reason older mass-transit hardware were deteriorating at a faster rate than the payer could justify reversing, there would be increasing incentive to eventually throw in the towel and let people drive themselves around.
It could happen ;)
Technology marches on but the mainstream beats the most heavily-trodden path.
Thankfully technology continues to march on, and the march of progress will continue to free us from being required to buy cars instead of starting new companies.
> Mass transit absolutely, positively does not work in the US if you have at least one child.
Here in Munich, one of the densest cities in Europe, I took the subway alone at age 7. There's nothing preventing US kids from doing the same with a bus, no matter if driven by a human or by some sort of autonomous system - except that US infrastructure at large is completely focused on cars and has zero respect for anyone not in the safety shell of a car, so it will be a challenge for a kid to even get to a bus stop safely.
But that can change, even in the matter of a few years. All it needs is the political will, a bit of funding, and in larger cities to get the homeless and drug addicts in safe housing or, for those incompatible with society for mental health reasons, into institutions.
Here in Munich, one of the densest cities in Europe, I took the subway alone at age 7. There's nothing preventing US kids from doing the same with a bus, no matter if driven by a human or by some sort of autonomous system - except that US infrastructure at large is completely focused on cars and has zero respect for anyone not in the safety shell of a car, so it will be a challenge for a kid to even get to a bus stop safely.
But that can change, even in the matter of a few years. All it needs is the political will, a bit of funding, and in larger cities to get the homeless and drug addicts in safe housing or, for those incompatible with society for mental health reasons, into institutions.
Note that Munich itself is built for this. You can’t drop a bus line into an existing layout and expect that it’ll magically work. Which is what most mass transit projects in the US seem to be attempting to do. IOW it’s not even _transit itself_ that makes this feasible in Europe. It’s how they build the rest of their spaces.
It's unfortunate that this is the exact strategy that many politicians and government people default to.
"We got $200M in federal money for improving transportation. Let's spend $50M on it adding a station to this light rail we built 20 years ago to win federal money _that_ time and spend $150M on adding five miles of express lanes to the interstate."
Perfect example. I lived in Dallas for five years. Denton, a city about 45 miles north of downtown Dallas, operates this "commuter rail" line called the A-Train. This line has existed since 2006.
Denton is one of the biggest college towns in Texas. It has two of the biggest universities in Texas (TWU, UNT).
The A-Train doesn't stop at _either college_.
The A-Train also doesn't stop anywhere near where people actually live unless you live in downtown Denton (few people do). So, to use it, you have to drive (or take the DCTA bus, which, lol, don't) to a station to take this train which terminates...
...about 20 miles from downtown Dallas. You need to connect in Carrollton (a station you _definitely_ have to drive to) to take the Dallas Area Regional Transit train, which has a larger network (that still doesn't bring you anywhere you want to go, at least not directly)
The entire system was set up this way because the A-Train runs along one of the busiest segments of Interstate 35E. It runs up this segment because that's where the pre-existing rail was.
This segment is 8 miles.
That rail network goes ALL THE WAY UP TO KANSAS AND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO GALVESTON.
So, to summarize, two of the biggest cities in Texas have a commuter rail that connects them, on a relatively super small segment of rail that was already laid down, but takes passengers to stations where they will need a car to complete their trip.
Oh, and the A-Train only has, like, six stations, operates every 30 minutes between 0600 and 2200 on weekdays and every hour on Saturday, and is closed on Sunday because Texas.
The crazy part about this is that DESPITE ALL OF THIS, this is _still_ better than the *zero* rail service we have in Houston (the biggest and most populated city in Texas).
_This_ is why public transit is an incredibly hard problem to solve here. It will take billions and billions of dollars to _just_ develop DART, Houston's METRO and Austin's Capital into anything closely resembling a real public transit network. Most folks will just vote for a new stadium or more lanes to get stuck in.
(The kicker? I just learned that a section of the Missouri-Kansas-Texas network that the A-Train rides on in Houston was scrapped in 1998 to become...part of Katy Freeway, the 12+ lane monstrosity that absolutely completely fills up every rush hour like clockwork.)
"We got $200M in federal money for improving transportation. Let's spend $50M on it adding a station to this light rail we built 20 years ago to win federal money _that_ time and spend $150M on adding five miles of express lanes to the interstate."
Perfect example. I lived in Dallas for five years. Denton, a city about 45 miles north of downtown Dallas, operates this "commuter rail" line called the A-Train. This line has existed since 2006.
Denton is one of the biggest college towns in Texas. It has two of the biggest universities in Texas (TWU, UNT).
The A-Train doesn't stop at _either college_.
The A-Train also doesn't stop anywhere near where people actually live unless you live in downtown Denton (few people do). So, to use it, you have to drive (or take the DCTA bus, which, lol, don't) to a station to take this train which terminates...
...about 20 miles from downtown Dallas. You need to connect in Carrollton (a station you _definitely_ have to drive to) to take the Dallas Area Regional Transit train, which has a larger network (that still doesn't bring you anywhere you want to go, at least not directly)
The entire system was set up this way because the A-Train runs along one of the busiest segments of Interstate 35E. It runs up this segment because that's where the pre-existing rail was.
This segment is 8 miles.
That rail network goes ALL THE WAY UP TO KANSAS AND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO GALVESTON.
So, to summarize, two of the biggest cities in Texas have a commuter rail that connects them, on a relatively super small segment of rail that was already laid down, but takes passengers to stations where they will need a car to complete their trip.
Oh, and the A-Train only has, like, six stations, operates every 30 minutes between 0600 and 2200 on weekdays and every hour on Saturday, and is closed on Sunday because Texas.
The crazy part about this is that DESPITE ALL OF THIS, this is _still_ better than the *zero* rail service we have in Houston (the biggest and most populated city in Texas).
_This_ is why public transit is an incredibly hard problem to solve here. It will take billions and billions of dollars to _just_ develop DART, Houston's METRO and Austin's Capital into anything closely resembling a real public transit network. Most folks will just vote for a new stadium or more lanes to get stuck in.
(The kicker? I just learned that a section of the Missouri-Kansas-Texas network that the A-Train rides on in Houston was scrapped in 1998 to become...part of Katy Freeway, the 12+ lane monstrosity that absolutely completely fills up every rush hour like clockwork.)
> I'm also big fan of not dictating what other people should say
I'm trying to understand this in the context of musk's behavior, did you mean "I'm also a big fan of saying that I'm a big fan of not dictating what other people should say"? Or "I'm also a big fan of dictating what other people say"? I think either of those would make more sense in this context.
I'm trying to understand this in the context of musk's behavior, did you mean "I'm also a big fan of saying that I'm a big fan of not dictating what other people should say"? Or "I'm also a big fan of dictating what other people say"? I think either of those would make more sense in this context.
> I'm also big fan of not dictating what other people should say
Me either, but in this context what would that have to do with Elon Musk or Tesla? Are you suggesting that other automobile manufacturers or their CEOs try to dictate what other people say?
Me either, but in this context what would that have to do with Elon Musk or Tesla? Are you suggesting that other automobile manufacturers or their CEOs try to dictate what other people say?
I doubt it, as it would have equally affected previous quarters.
It could be that there were things positive going for Tesla, but the Elon thing finally outweigh the positives or the positives essentially evaporated, leaving only this negative.
I mean, he's been pretty bad for a while, but he's definitely been going downhill rapidly over the last year or so. I'm expecting full-blown Howard Hughes-ian behaviour by about 2025.
> It's very likely that Musk himself is contributing to the reputational downfall
This. I really like Tesla as a brand, but Musk should really stop over-promising and under-delivering.
Their technology is really good, but far away from the promises of their CEO.
This. I really like Tesla as a brand, but Musk should really stop over-promising and under-delivering.
Their technology is really good, but far away from the promises of their CEO.
Elon has always done that during the time Tesla was gaining popularity. It seems somewhere between pedo-diver and Twitter take over his public perception started taking a nose dive. I agree though I still want to see Tesla succeed.
It almost feels like he's just overpromising to get other car companies to miss what is the USP of a Tesla vehicle - the efficiency. The autopilot nonsense is criminal, but the fact that VW group, Mercedes nor any Japanese manufacturer can't hold a candle to the upper limit of 4 miles per kilowatt. If a model 3 was within my budget, I'd get it despite of the lack of a good radar-guided cruise control, despite the lack of buttons to engage drive, despite the lack of a HUD and mechanical buttons for climate controls. And despite the moron at the helm. All of that since it is the most efficient car on the market as far as I can tell.
My non-Tesla EV hit its advertised range out of the factory, and hasn’t meaningfully shifted in the 2-3 years I’ve owned it. Literally every Tesla owner I know complains about not getting the range they thought they were buying. More than one has switched away because of it.
Speak all you want about Tesla’s efficiency, but it’s hardly a meaningful USP against the absolute bad taste left in one’s mouth after hypeman Elon yet again under-delivers.
Speak all you want about Tesla’s efficiency, but it’s hardly a meaningful USP against the absolute bad taste left in one’s mouth after hypeman Elon yet again under-delivers.
> 4 miles per kilowatt
You probably know this, but FYI it’s per kilowatt-hour.
Anecdote: my Model S Plaid’s efficiency over 23,000 miles is 305 Watt-hours per mile.
You probably know this, but FYI it’s per kilowatt-hour.
Anecdote: my Model S Plaid’s efficiency over 23,000 miles is 305 Watt-hours per mile.
I wanted a Tesla, but I couldn’t inage buying one with Musk as CEO.
I know that the plural of "anecdote" isn't "data", but ... I ended up with a Polestar because I got a fantastic lease deal but my wife literally wouldn't countenance buying a Tesla because of Musk.
Yeah. Ten years ago it was the cool, new brand. Now it's what you buy when you want to rep an insane drug addict transphobe's fall from grace.
I'm looking to buy a Hyundai later this year.
I'm looking to buy a Hyundai later this year.
> Now it's what you buy when you want to rep an insane drug addict transphobe's fall from grace.
Drug addict? You mean his ketamine for depression?
And when you buy a car are you "representing" the CEO's views?
What are the CEO of Hyundai's personal beliefs? Do you even know?
Drug addict? You mean his ketamine for depression?
And when you buy a car are you "representing" the CEO's views?
What are the CEO of Hyundai's personal beliefs? Do you even know?
The CEO of Hyundai hasn't bought a media company to put his mistaken beliefs and bad habits in front of millions of people.
What are the CEO of Hyundai's personal beliefs? Do you even know?
Unlike Musk, the CEO of Hyundai doesn't go out of their way to make sure I'm aware of their opinions. I don't even know the name of Hyundai's CEO, and we bought an Ioniq 5 last year. One might argue such a dichotomy is one of the reasons we didn't buy a Tesla (well, that and the crap build quality).
Unlike Musk, the CEO of Hyundai doesn't go out of their way to make sure I'm aware of their opinions. I don't even know the name of Hyundai's CEO, and we bought an Ioniq 5 last year. One might argue such a dichotomy is one of the reasons we didn't buy a Tesla (well, that and the crap build quality).
> Do you even know?
I think that's the point?
I think that's the point?
Well I’m a Tesla employee and I started looking for a new job today. There’s a lot of smart people who see where this is going.
Robot taxis not coming soon enough?
I was under the impression (admittedly from an article I read a couple of years ago) that the consensus within the company was pretty much always that robo-taxis were one man’s pipe dream.
Weren’t there also disclosure documents a couple of years ago when they were trying to license autopilot that said they believed internally they were at level 2 as opposed to 4/5? (I might be remembering this part wrong)
Weren’t there also disclosure documents a couple of years ago when they were trying to license autopilot that said they believed internally they were at level 2 as opposed to 4/5? (I might be remembering this part wrong)
> I was under the impression (admittedly from an article I read a couple of years ago) that the consensus within the company was pretty much always that robo-taxis were one man’s pipe dream.
If robo-taxis were ready with the kind of economics outlined by Musk it would be financially irresponsible to actually sell the cars to others instead of just building a massive Tesla fleet and pivoting towards transportation services.
Tesla's still selling their cars? If so, then they're not robo-taxis.
Edit: The other option for Tesla would be selling the cars for a high enough premium to offset the lost taxi revenue. The fact that Tesla seems to be in a price war with other EV makers is not a promising sign for robo-taxis.
If robo-taxis were ready with the kind of economics outlined by Musk it would be financially irresponsible to actually sell the cars to others instead of just building a massive Tesla fleet and pivoting towards transportation services.
Tesla's still selling their cars? If so, then they're not robo-taxis.
Edit: The other option for Tesla would be selling the cars for a high enough premium to offset the lost taxi revenue. The fact that Tesla seems to be in a price war with other EV makers is not a promising sign for robo-taxis.
Everyone knows they’re at level 2. Level 4/5 is completely hands off, no supervision.
Not even their Supervised Full Self Driving does that
Not even their Supervised Full Self Driving does that
Do I taxis certainly aren’t just one man’s dream. Whether not not they are possible in the next 50 years is another matter, but plenty of people want them and are willing to invest in developing them.
They’re here. Just not from Tesla.
What happened?
I’m going to assume that awful Q1 results lead employees to suspect layoffs are on the way. I imagine they are correct.
They should just do an offering. That stock has held it's stupidly massive over valuation for 5+ years now. Just dump it on whatever dumb ass investors have been propping the stock up.
Have you looked at Tesla stock recently? The stock is down 5% today to 166. It was 250 at beginning of year, so dropped 30%. The peak was 400 in 2021, and dropped to 113 in 2023.
I think it is still overpriced and can drop further, but it has lost its shine. They will make less money from offering, and it would probably tank the stock. And there is no sign they need the money.
I think it is still overpriced and can drop further, but it has lost its shine. They will make less money from offering, and it would probably tank the stock. And there is no sign they need the money.
The company is currently valued at $530 billion.
Compare this to Toyota, who sold 11 million cars last year (~20x Tesla), is worth $385 billion.
It is still grossly over valued.
Compare this to Toyota, who sold 11 million cars last year (~20x Tesla), is worth $385 billion.
It is still grossly over valued.
Tesla sold 1.8 million cars last year and Toyota sold 11.23 million cars last year. so a 6.2x multiple, not a ~20x multiple
Maybe not layoffs - maybe more the fact that their stock compensation will plummet in value as it is no longer a hyper growth stock. Also, the consequences of Elon’s misbehaviour has finally caught up with the branding so it is no longer cool to work there.
Again to Musk's reputation: he's not exactly layoff-averse. Even if it isn't strictly required I can't imagine he'd hesitate to pull the trigger.
probably in response to the content of the article.
"Lot of smart people who see where this is going"...uh huh.
The smart people left years ago and started working at Lucid and elsewhere. All the people who had talent got sick of Musk's shit, saw the company stagnating, and left for functional, non-toxic workplaces.
Tesla has spent the last ~5 years resting on its laurels, aside from (eventually) producing a pavement-queen meme vehicle that breaks down on even the simplest off-roading tests and gets stuck on beaches. Oh, and slightly tweaking the Model 3's looks, I guess that's...something.
Your cars have completely stagnant styling, terrible reliability (matched with even worse parts availability!), the worst interiors in their class, the worst build quality, and they're no longer kings in anything - not efficiency, range, performance, or charging speed.
Your company was at the forefront of removing physical switches and moving to screen-based and capacitive-touch controls, both reviled by the public and coming under increasing scrutiny by regulators.
Your cars have the highest crash rate of any automaker.
Tesla's "autopilot" has been surpassed by several manufacturers whose systems don't randomly slam on the brakes (or, for that matter, into the backs of police cruisers.)
Here's a 2008 blog post about V2G: https://www.tesla.com/blog/smarter-charging ...and sixteen years later your cars still can't do it. Hyundais and Kias can...
Your cars are still stuck on 400V (sorry, "480") architecture while years ago other companies went to 800v. VW/Audi/Porsche, Hyundai/Kia, GM, and Lucid are all on 800v. And while "V4" stations have been deployed, they're all still 400v 'under the hood'. 800v CCS has been slow to roll out, but it's actually been
If you're all so smart, why are your cars on fire sale and still selling like dogshit?
The smart people left years ago and started working at Lucid and elsewhere. All the people who had talent got sick of Musk's shit, saw the company stagnating, and left for functional, non-toxic workplaces.
Tesla has spent the last ~5 years resting on its laurels, aside from (eventually) producing a pavement-queen meme vehicle that breaks down on even the simplest off-roading tests and gets stuck on beaches. Oh, and slightly tweaking the Model 3's looks, I guess that's...something.
Your cars have completely stagnant styling, terrible reliability (matched with even worse parts availability!), the worst interiors in their class, the worst build quality, and they're no longer kings in anything - not efficiency, range, performance, or charging speed.
Your company was at the forefront of removing physical switches and moving to screen-based and capacitive-touch controls, both reviled by the public and coming under increasing scrutiny by regulators.
Your cars have the highest crash rate of any automaker.
Tesla's "autopilot" has been surpassed by several manufacturers whose systems don't randomly slam on the brakes (or, for that matter, into the backs of police cruisers.)
Here's a 2008 blog post about V2G: https://www.tesla.com/blog/smarter-charging ...and sixteen years later your cars still can't do it. Hyundais and Kias can...
Your cars are still stuck on 400V (sorry, "480") architecture while years ago other companies went to 800v. VW/Audi/Porsche, Hyundai/Kia, GM, and Lucid are all on 800v. And while "V4" stations have been deployed, they're all still 400v 'under the hood'. 800v CCS has been slow to roll out, but it's actually been
If you're all so smart, why are your cars on fire sale and still selling like dogshit?
If you're all so smart, why are your cars on fire sale and still
selling like dogshit?
All those smart people really turned Lucid into a hypergrowth company.
> terrible reliability (matched with even worse parts availability!)
What I love as a "defense" from Tesla fans is when they comment that "they're not the worst for reliability, in fact they're middle to above average"...
... when compared with ICEs which are far more complex. "EVs are far simpler than ICEs, and there's far less that can go wrong with them"... if so, being in the middle of the pack with a bunch of ICEs isn't the flex it seems.
What I love as a "defense" from Tesla fans is when they comment that "they're not the worst for reliability, in fact they're middle to above average"...
... when compared with ICEs which are far more complex. "EVs are far simpler than ICEs, and there's far less that can go wrong with them"... if so, being in the middle of the pack with a bunch of ICEs isn't the flex it seems.
"Disastrous" seems like a significant overstatement.
To me this looks more like "unsurprising". Tesla has some additional business lines which might eventually prove quite valuable, but in the short to medium term it is mostly a car company. The whole car industry is dealing with the results of higher interest rates. It would be much more surprising if Tesla somehow turned out to be immune to that.
To me this looks more like "unsurprising". Tesla has some additional business lines which might eventually prove quite valuable, but in the short to medium term it is mostly a car company. The whole car industry is dealing with the results of higher interest rates. It would be much more surprising if Tesla somehow turned out to be immune to that.
It’s below estimates, so it’s by definition “surprising” relative to the people whose business it is to predict these things.
Disastrous may be going too far unless it portends further drops going forward.
But disastrous may also be the right word because Tesla’s valuation is based entirely on massive growth. So even if this means Tesla will start growing fairly normally as opposed to rapidly, that’s bad for Tesla stock.
Disastrous may be going too far unless it portends further drops going forward.
But disastrous may also be the right word because Tesla’s valuation is based entirely on massive growth. So even if this means Tesla will start growing fairly normally as opposed to rapidly, that’s bad for Tesla stock.
There is suspicion that Tesla always seemed to just exceed predictions, predictably. I'm sure plenty of people made money when "oh look, another quarter of exceeding expected results".
The market doesn't knock $30bn off the value of your company at the open if your results were "unsurprising".
It was literally under target. That’s the definition of surprising.
It comes as no surprises that the rest of your comment either looks for positives or places the blame on conditions affecting the auto industry at large.
Can Tesla do no wrong?
It comes as no surprises that the rest of your comment either looks for positives or places the blame on conditions affecting the auto industry at large.
Can Tesla do no wrong?
The disaster isn't missing of a quarter, but the entire facade as to why Tesla is valued at the astronomic multiple of earnings.
Tesla has confirmed what most it's not a tech company, but an auto manufacturer. And if it's repeated, the stock will never recover.
Tesla has confirmed what most it's not a tech company, but an auto manufacturer. And if it's repeated, the stock will never recover.
Any reaction to bad news for Elon Musk businesses are outsized for the amount of hate people have for him. I'd say the hate is pretty well-deserved but I also value SpaceX and Tesla tremendously and I hope they continue taking us into the future.
Maybe we're getting to saturation in early adopter market? Looking around, there are a lot of folks who could not easily live with a BEV, i.e. live in apartment buildings or don't have an easy way to install L2 charging at home.
I built www.letselectrify.org as a side project to make it easier for people in multifamily buildings (condos, apartments, and HOAs) to get their own dedicated EV chargers.
In multifamily buildings, such as my 85-unit condo, there isn’t any at-home charging. At best, there is one shared charger for the community to use.
This sucks for several reasons: 1. You have to remember to move your car when it’s done charging, 2. The HOA is stuck paying the bill for all the electricity, and 3. As more and more people get electric cars, shared chargers don’t scale.
The most common Homeowner Association (HOA) objections to adding more charging: 1. It costs too much, and 2. Nobody wants this.
HOAs are generally risk-averse and don’t want to spend money on discretionary things like EV charging. This means that the only way for residents to conveniently own an electric car is to pay out of pocket (sometimes up to $20k) to install a single charger, which usually also requires the HOA to approve on a case-by-case basis.
Instead of all these one-off installs, letselectrify.org combines everyone that wants a charger into one campaign and lets them split the cost of installation, which ends up being much cheaper.
In multifamily buildings, such as my 85-unit condo, there isn’t any at-home charging. At best, there is one shared charger for the community to use.
This sucks for several reasons: 1. You have to remember to move your car when it’s done charging, 2. The HOA is stuck paying the bill for all the electricity, and 3. As more and more people get electric cars, shared chargers don’t scale.
The most common Homeowner Association (HOA) objections to adding more charging: 1. It costs too much, and 2. Nobody wants this.
HOAs are generally risk-averse and don’t want to spend money on discretionary things like EV charging. This means that the only way for residents to conveniently own an electric car is to pay out of pocket (sometimes up to $20k) to install a single charger, which usually also requires the HOA to approve on a case-by-case basis.
Instead of all these one-off installs, letselectrify.org combines everyone that wants a charger into one campaign and lets them split the cost of installation, which ends up being much cheaper.
Even people for whom home charging is not an issue aren't going to abandon their existing gas cars to get an EV that performs the exact same function for a lot more money. Having an EV is not transformational.
Even with a $7,500 discount, there's still a wide gap between the value of the ten-year old gas car in the driveway and the cost of a brand new EV. Not going to a gas station is just not that beneficial to most.
Even with a $7,500 discount, there's still a wide gap between the value of the ten-year old gas car in the driveway and the cost of a brand new EV. Not going to a gas station is just not that beneficial to most.
> Even people for whom home charging is not an issue aren't going to abandon their existing gas cars to get an EV that performs the exact same function for a lot more money.
It's an interesting point. Still anecdotal, but our family ended up doing the first part of your sentence - that is, we abandoned our existing gas car. However, it was certainly not a lot more money - in fact part of the equation was that it was slightly cheaper to get the EV, exactly because it was not a super luxurious super long range $100k vehicle. There turned out to be a bonus benefit of 1 year of free charging at EVgo chargers, which we didn't count on but is nice.
Our main reason for this was that the gas car we replaced was requiring a lot of repairs and we were hoping to minimize the time we spend at repair shops. Hopefully the EV will require even less time than an IC vehicle due to no fluid changes.
One other unexpected change we encountered is that due to charging at home, we spend less total time fueling up the car, i.e. no more gas station visits. The time we occasionally use the free EVGO charger is at a department store so it's a side effect of going shopping instead of a single-purpose refueling trip.
It's an interesting point. Still anecdotal, but our family ended up doing the first part of your sentence - that is, we abandoned our existing gas car. However, it was certainly not a lot more money - in fact part of the equation was that it was slightly cheaper to get the EV, exactly because it was not a super luxurious super long range $100k vehicle. There turned out to be a bonus benefit of 1 year of free charging at EVgo chargers, which we didn't count on but is nice.
Our main reason for this was that the gas car we replaced was requiring a lot of repairs and we were hoping to minimize the time we spend at repair shops. Hopefully the EV will require even less time than an IC vehicle due to no fluid changes.
One other unexpected change we encountered is that due to charging at home, we spend less total time fueling up the car, i.e. no more gas station visits. The time we occasionally use the free EVGO charger is at a department store so it's a side effect of going shopping instead of a single-purpose refueling trip.
Just so. Today, I'd be able to get by with an EV if one were to miraculously appear before me, but none of them could have replaced an ICE for the kind of tasks we use our vehicle for at the time of our last refresh cycle (~6 years ago) at a remotely competitive cost.
Early adopters are going to early adopt, and people in high income brackets who own multiple vehicles can readily afford to have an ICE vehicle and an EV, but there are finite numbers of these folks out there to sell to. I reckon only recently EVs have gotten good and cheap enough to seriously replace ICE vehicles in the mass market.
Personally, I've got zero incentive to replace our fully functional ICE vehicle with any vehicle (EV or otherwise) until its "pretty darn reliable" service life ends - which I would place at least another 5 years in the future - at which point EVs will have closed even more of the gaps.
Early adopters are going to early adopt, and people in high income brackets who own multiple vehicles can readily afford to have an ICE vehicle and an EV, but there are finite numbers of these folks out there to sell to. I reckon only recently EVs have gotten good and cheap enough to seriously replace ICE vehicles in the mass market.
Personally, I've got zero incentive to replace our fully functional ICE vehicle with any vehicle (EV or otherwise) until its "pretty darn reliable" service life ends - which I would place at least another 5 years in the future - at which point EVs will have closed even more of the gaps.
I agree this is part of it. There are still many parts of the USA where charging is a real concern, as is the need to drive beyond the vehicle's range (I do that several times a month, and would worry about charging along the way or at my destination).
I'm a recent first time buyer of a (used) EV and use the L1 120v charger that came with the vehicle. The daily commute use is low enough that it charges to full overnight.
Before I purchased I thought I'd need to pay for a L2 charger and hire an electrician to install a 240v circuit in the driveway. Turned it that I just needed a short 10ga extension cord from an existing 120v receptacle.
Our household have a second ICE for longer trips.
I live in a house though, not an apartment.
Before I purchased I thought I'd need to pay for a L2 charger and hire an electrician to install a 240v circuit in the driveway. Turned it that I just needed a short 10ga extension cord from an existing 120v receptacle.
Our household have a second ICE for longer trips.
I live in a house though, not an apartment.
I think one of the biggest enemies of EV adoption is that people just don't intrinsically understand that "refueling" is fundamentally different.
That was me. I had to do my own research to educate myself.
I've done a couple longer trips where the battery goes to 20%. It took a few nights of charging to get it back to 100%. Which was totally fine because our daily use is less than 15 miles per day.
When I was ready to buy, I knew more about EV's than the person who sold me the vehicle. The amount of false information I got from the salesperson was worrisome. Even the amount of sales tax he quoted on the first offer was wrong.
I've done a couple longer trips where the battery goes to 20%. It took a few nights of charging to get it back to 100%. Which was totally fine because our daily use is less than 15 miles per day.
When I was ready to buy, I knew more about EV's than the person who sold me the vehicle. The amount of false information I got from the salesperson was worrisome. Even the amount of sales tax he quoted on the first offer was wrong.
And they are constantly badgered to not gain that understanding.
I think the apartment issue is really more of a non-issue, assuming there are fast chargers near you. Can apartment dwellers like myself really not go charge for 10-30 minutes every couple of days? A trip to the gas station is typically ~5 minutes.
At least that is how I rationalize potential EV ownership.
At least that is how I rationalize potential EV ownership.
Nah, it's a big deal to not have charging where you park overnight.
A huge part of EV ownership is the minimal thought put into keep track of how full the car is. You drive, you come home, you plug in, you drive later, etc. No worries at all, no effort.
If you don't have that convenience, you're always going to have a bug nagging you "should I go charge?" and it'll wear at you.
Street parking with chargers on light poles, load balancing so they don't pop the circuit? Win. Chargers saturating common area parking that bills you for power you draw? Making people go charge their car at some central location for 45 minutes once or twice a week? Total fiasco.
I get by fine on a 20a/16a 240v (nema 6-20 plug) in the relatively mild new england winters and can drive my car just like a normal car 98% of the time.
A huge part of EV ownership is the minimal thought put into keep track of how full the car is. You drive, you come home, you plug in, you drive later, etc. No worries at all, no effort.
If you don't have that convenience, you're always going to have a bug nagging you "should I go charge?" and it'll wear at you.
Street parking with chargers on light poles, load balancing so they don't pop the circuit? Win. Chargers saturating common area parking that bills you for power you draw? Making people go charge their car at some central location for 45 minutes once or twice a week? Total fiasco.
I get by fine on a 20a/16a 240v (nema 6-20 plug) in the relatively mild new england winters and can drive my car just like a normal car 98% of the time.
>assuming there are fast chargers near you.
That's a big assumption. Based on the data I see here:
https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Drive-Clean-Rebate-F...
... there are fewer than 10 total DC fast charging connection serving the entire of Manhattan, Staten Island and the Bronx.
That's a big assumption. Based on the data I see here:
https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Drive-Clean-Rebate-F...
... there are fewer than 10 total DC fast charging connection serving the entire of Manhattan, Staten Island and the Bronx.
Interest rates and vehicle prices too high, must come down to expand TAM. Future benchmark rate cuts should improve affordability (most people finance and buy a payment), but Tesla will need to navigate burn rate until central bank pivots.
I think it'd be a mistake to also underestimate the impact of actual competition showing up with far fewer quirks. Tesla's interiors were already spartan to say the least, and with each interior update the cost cutting gets even more obvious and more compromising (eg, replacing turn signal stalks with buttons on the steering wheel).
Meanwhile you've got things like the Ioniq 5 that have fun styling, way better interiors, and don't really cost that much more. They're still selling a lot fewer in total numbers than Tesla, but Ioniq 5 + EV6 is around 53,000 vehicles in 2023. Given the shape of the EV landscape and EV sales in general, that's probably a lot of lost sales from Tesla specifically. BMW also started showing up, and they're responsible for another 47,000 sales in 2023.
And then at the high end it looks like the Model X + S sold 17,027 total, which yeah. At that price point those vehicles are just one-trick ponies. They go fast, and that's about it. Meanwhile you've got Lucid Air, Porsche Taycan, Audio e-Tron GT, etc... Taycan + eTron GT sales in the US add up to around 10,000. Lucid only had 6,000 delivers in 2023, but it also only offers a Model S competitor atm.
Meanwhile you've got things like the Ioniq 5 that have fun styling, way better interiors, and don't really cost that much more. They're still selling a lot fewer in total numbers than Tesla, but Ioniq 5 + EV6 is around 53,000 vehicles in 2023. Given the shape of the EV landscape and EV sales in general, that's probably a lot of lost sales from Tesla specifically. BMW also started showing up, and they're responsible for another 47,000 sales in 2023.
And then at the high end it looks like the Model X + S sold 17,027 total, which yeah. At that price point those vehicles are just one-trick ponies. They go fast, and that's about it. Meanwhile you've got Lucid Air, Porsche Taycan, Audio e-Tron GT, etc... Taycan + eTron GT sales in the US add up to around 10,000. Lucid only had 6,000 delivers in 2023, but it also only offers a Model S competitor atm.
> Interest rates and vehicle prices too high, must come down
I'm still a bit surprised how many people, even professionals in the lending space, hold this view that "interest rates must fall!"
We're still relatively low for federal interest rate[0]. Near zero interest rates are not sustainable long term and have lead to a tremendous asset bubble we're still just figuring out the consequences of.
It's a bit frightening that the only solution most companies have to improving their future out look boils down to "wait for rates to drop".
I suspect even if rates do drop again, it will be only for a brief while before it becomes clear that "print free money!" is not a long term viable economic strategy.
0. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
I'm still a bit surprised how many people, even professionals in the lending space, hold this view that "interest rates must fall!"
We're still relatively low for federal interest rate[0]. Near zero interest rates are not sustainable long term and have lead to a tremendous asset bubble we're still just figuring out the consequences of.
It's a bit frightening that the only solution most companies have to improving their future out look boils down to "wait for rates to drop".
I suspect even if rates do drop again, it will be only for a brief while before it becomes clear that "print free money!" is not a long term viable economic strategy.
0. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
I’m not sure why people think interest rates will go down if we’re running 3%+ (50%+ above target) inflation and unemployment is below 5%. I don’t care what the projections are, the rates won’t drop until inflation is below 3% or unemployment shoots up. If they did drop the rates in these conditions, it would signal a failure of the FEDs dual mandate.
My prediction is that rates stay the same or even are raised if inflation continues to run hot while unemployment is down.
My prediction is that rates stay the same or even are raised if inflation continues to run hot while unemployment is down.
> I'm still a bit surprised how many people, even professionals in the lending space, hold this view that "interest rates must fall!"
Because it's mostly high earning white collar professionals or anyone with at least $100k in liquid assets who benefit from an interest rate drop.
If rates drop significantly, then house sale prices skyrocket again because you can take out larger loans with a smaller down payment, and you can leverage yourself to acquire multiple properties. Same with car sales, and any other luxury good.
Because it's mostly high earning white collar professionals or anyone with at least $100k in liquid assets who benefit from an interest rate drop.
If rates drop significantly, then house sale prices skyrocket again because you can take out larger loans with a smaller down payment, and you can leverage yourself to acquire multiple properties. Same with car sales, and any other luxury good.
> We're still relatively low for federal interest rate[0]. Near zero interest rates are not sustainable long term and have lead to a tremendous asset bubble we're still just figuring out the consequences of.
My house is still likely to go for more than I paid for it in 2018, even after adjusting for inflation. It should be obvious that housing cannot sustainably rise at above-inflation rates indefinitely.
My house is still likely to go for more than I paid for it in 2018, even after adjusting for inflation. It should be obvious that housing cannot sustainably rise at above-inflation rates indefinitely.
American consumers run on credit because of wage stagflation in the face of inflation and price levels. Either wages must go up or credit costs must come down to improve affordability if prices aren’t coming down.
Securing wage increases takes time, worker organizing, etc. credit affordability is as easy as Chair Powell holding a press conference.
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/02/08/americans-use-of-cred...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default....
Securing wage increases takes time, worker organizing, etc. credit affordability is as easy as Chair Powell holding a press conference.
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/02/08/americans-use-of-cred...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default....
When the price of the car tops out around that of a house in a low cost of living area, low interest rates make the price seem less obscene.
With higher rates than before (and more competition), the price is too high, no matter how you shake it.
With higher rates than before (and more competition), the price is too high, no matter how you shake it.
FWIW they had some insane discounts toward the end of March, to the extent that I'm not sure high prices is the problem. I bought a new long-range AWD Model Y myself a couple weeks ago because between the discounts and tax credits I ended up paying under $40k (would've been around $36k but even after sales tax and fees and stuff it was still only around $39k).
At those prices I'm not sure how they aren't selling more cars. For the amount of range and functionality you get, that kind of deal blows the competition out of the water; no other EV I'm aware of comes close. (That said, I have no idea if they still made much of a profit off that car or if they were just desperate to clear out space.)
At those prices I'm not sure how they aren't selling more cars. For the amount of range and functionality you get, that kind of deal blows the competition out of the water; no other EV I'm aware of comes close. (That said, I have no idea if they still made much of a profit off that car or if they were just desperate to clear out space.)
> At those prices I'm not sure how they aren't selling more cars.
I cannot imagine paying $40K for a car, and I'm sure there are millions like me. You may be optimistic on what you think the average person can afford.
I cannot imagine paying $40K for a car, and I'm sure there are millions like me. You may be optimistic on what you think the average person can afford.
The average price of a new car is $48k:
https://caredge.com/guides/new-car-price-trends-in-2024
The average new car purchaser may not be the average person, also the average include trucks with tend to be super super expensive.
https://caredge.com/guides/new-car-price-trends-in-2024
The average new car purchaser may not be the average person, also the average include trucks with tend to be super super expensive.
also the average include trucks with tend to be super super expensive.
Funny how things change.
My first new car was a truck, for the very reason that pick-up trucks were generally much cheaper than cars because they were mostly empty space and didn't have so many creature comforts.
Now, trucks are like rolling vacation spas. When my wife's car was side-swiped, the insurance company gave her a huge new truck as a loaner. It had more electronics, more comfortable seating, and more luxury appointments than our living room.
Funny how things change.
My first new car was a truck, for the very reason that pick-up trucks were generally much cheaper than cars because they were mostly empty space and didn't have so many creature comforts.
Now, trucks are like rolling vacation spas. When my wife's car was side-swiped, the insurance company gave her a huge new truck as a loaner. It had more electronics, more comfortable seating, and more luxury appointments than our living room.
Right, of course, $40k is not cheap in absolute terms. But for a luxury long-range AWD electric crossover, it's significantly cheaper than the competition (at least here in the US), and also much cheaper than the same car cost a year ago.
My main point is that if prices have come down a lot, yet Tesla is now selling fewer cars than before, then it seems like there must be other factors in play besides price.
My main point is that if prices have come down a lot, yet Tesla is now selling fewer cars than before, then it seems like there must be other factors in play besides price.
> At those prices I'm not sure how they aren't selling more cars.
The above mentioned Elon Factor?
The above mentioned Elon Factor?
Yeah, I mean sure, maybe that's all there is to it, but he's been a high-profile asshole for years now. He's definitely changed, but that change happened years ago, it's not a new problem.
I guess it's possible that maybe it's just taken this long to catch up with him though.
My two cents are that it's more important to support the company that's building the best EVs, and the positive impact Tesla has on the world is way bigger than whatever negative effects Elon's tweets are having, but I can definitely relate to folks' discomfort. I wish we had the old Elon back.
I guess it's possible that maybe it's just taken this long to catch up with him though.
My two cents are that it's more important to support the company that's building the best EVs, and the positive impact Tesla has on the world is way bigger than whatever negative effects Elon's tweets are having, but I can definitely relate to folks' discomfort. I wish we had the old Elon back.
I agree with almost your entire comment, but I hope they boot Elon and bring JB in as CEO. Elon has no humility and empathy, JB does (at least from my brief interactions years ago). Old Elon is gone I fear, but maybe he finds himself, I really hope so. Story isn’t over yet.
Yeah, I think that's a great idea, I would love to see that happen.
Elon is toxic and the cars are either exactly the same or worse than they’ve been for years. And then you have the bizarro cyber truck.
I was looking at adding another Y to our household while those sales were offered, but didn’t because my income prevents us from getting the tax credit, so maybe next year. Agree it’s a great value, more customer research required (what price do the vehicles need to get to in order to move faster, and can Tesla still make a profit at those prices).
Do you think that maybe a $40K car is a fairly large amount of money for a lot of people?
Average price of a new car in the US is ~$47k as of February 2024.
I'd be curious if the median price is a bit lower, but perhaps we're finding that that average price is not sustainable?
Agreed, US consumer is potentially tapped out.
It's a global issue. Even BYD's sales crashed by almost 50% [0]
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-ma...
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-ma...
Those are sequential sales.
YoY BYD is up 13%.
TSLA sales are down sequentially but more relevantly also YoY.
YoY BYD is up 13%.
TSLA sales are down sequentially but more relevantly also YoY.
Right but when do I get my cheap Tesla?
[deleted]
Tesla are still producing cars which have the same design elements as the Model S did in 2012. I'm amazed they have pulled that off but maybe the lack of "freshness" is also hurting their bottom line?
[deleted]
Model S and X aren’t big volume movers. The 3 and Y are, that’s why they’re getting refreshes.
i hope elon's behavior is part of the drop in demand. i'm afraid it is mostly economic though.
Anecdotal, but this is absolutely the case for me. The widely reported fit-and-finish issues would have made me hesitant regardless, but as long as it's Elon's company I will not be buying a Tesla regardless of improvements in quality. Bought a Prius plug-in hybrid instead (which I'm very happy with).
Prior to Elon taking the mask off I was really excited about the idea of getting a Tesla, and I'm squarely in what I imagine must be the main target demographic.
Prior to Elon taking the mask off I was really excited about the idea of getting a Tesla, and I'm squarely in what I imagine must be the main target demographic.
misiti3780(2)
I saw a bumper sticker on one: “I bought this before Elon went crazy”.
It’s not great when your customers are embarrassed to be seen driving the car you made.
It’s not great when your customers are embarrassed to be seen driving the car you made.
I shared this in my other comment, but there is some support for that notion: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/would-...
great article. i have a tesla -- it is a great car. i regret that elon is such an awful person and i will definitely look elsewhere before buying another.
at least as long as he's involved.
at least as long as he's involved.
Tesla should be absolutely terrified of this. I think lots of us would love to like Elon, but the man is such a disgrace that we are actively disincentivised to root for his success.
I went from assuming that a Tesla would be my next car to assuming that an EV that's not a Tesla will be my next car. All because of Musk.
I really hope it will support stalks soon or have turn indicators actually placed on left+right.
I am shopping for an EV right now. I absolutely refuse to look at Teslas. So there is some effect of unknown size, and in hard times that added effect can push things over an edge.
Or the reality that there is lot more options so people gravitate towards them. And brand loyalty might also be a thing, of which there is lot for also other brands.
The technological gap is tightening, Tesla was alone before, the same way that Nvidia is "alone" for now.
Tesla still has some advance in terms of autopilot (in the US), but for all other things, it's an electric car with a great software but a rather low-quality hardware finish if to compare with other brands like Mercedes.
Tesla still has some advance in terms of autopilot (in the US), but for all other things, it's an electric car with a great software but a rather low-quality hardware finish if to compare with other brands like Mercedes.
> The technological gap is tightening, Tesla was alone before, the same way that Nvidia is "alone" for now.
It's worse than that. Nvidia has a moat (deployed software and the open source software ecosystem) that buys them at least a few years, even if a well-resourced hardware peer appeared out of thin air tomorrow. Tesla has nothing like this. The cost of switching away from them is negligible, and they have half a dozen extremely well-resourced competitors.
It's worse than that. Nvidia has a moat (deployed software and the open source software ecosystem) that buys them at least a few years, even if a well-resourced hardware peer appeared out of thin air tomorrow. Tesla has nothing like this. The cost of switching away from them is negligible, and they have half a dozen extremely well-resourced competitors.
It also has much better range than the Mercedes, accelerates faster, costs nearly half as much, and can use Superchargers. I can forgive the slightly less fancy "finish" for all that.
When Tesla gets tight for money they raise the Supercharger price to more than gas, it happened once around 2018 during a cash crunch.
I rarely use it (the vast majority of Tesla owners charge at home), but when I do, I appreciate the fact that it's there, even if the price is higher. It's still cheaper than gas. I actually think that's kind of the idea. One or two long road trips per year become possible. With most other EVs they're a dicey proposition still.
Yeah I think they lowered it back after a backlash and an improvement in their financial situation.
very few people outside the permanently online care about this
Perhaps! That leads to a question actually: I wonder how many people know that Musk intentionally reinstated accounts for literal neo nazis, and very obviously has personal knowledge of Andrew Anglin being on the service? I suspect most people do not know, because getting caught providing material support for nazism would destroy a normal person's reputation.
The 2016 election changed the calculus. Supporting white supremacists is no longer a deal-breaker.
It seems to me this is heavily related to Elon being a vocal Republican.
I wonder if people would care as much if he was a quiet Republican?
I wonder if people would care as much if he was a quiet Republican?
I don't think it's so much because he is Republican. It's what he says that matters.
Promoting great replacement theory is very different than vocal Republican. He only said the Republican persecution thing after he was informed the horse for handjob scandal was going to be reported: they emailed him for comment and he immediately made the post.
> Promoting great replacement theory is very different than vocal Republican
They used to be very different. Today, not so much.
They used to be very different. Today, not so much.
Is there any evidence that the best-fit portions of the market are getting saturated. There are plenty of places in the USA where an ICE vehicle is just a better fit, given usage patterns, lack of charging facilities etc.
Well, it's a specialty item that can substitute for a very popular mainstream one in a number of popular use cases.
And come close to substituting in a number of cases that might still lead to a bit of rapid adoption.
More ideal as an incremental acquisition for many of those who already possess the mainstream merchandise. Not so much desirability for those that would have to choose one or the other. So that's a smaller subset of the niche.
Then there are those who find the novel solution is superior for their particular needs, an even smaller subset, but more enthusiastic.
Seems like the behavior would be to fly off the shelf until the subsets of the mainstream have been saturated, then plateau at the rate that the mainstream becomes amenable to replacement.
At the smallest of scale, like with handcrafted items, it can occasionally be easy to do well financially as long as you can sell all you can make. This can happen when they're "flying off the shelf" so there can be relentless pressure to just make more, and the pressure can seem unending when there is a multi-year timeline for any scale-up activities.
If the market matures at a less-giga-than-anticipated level, and you end up in the process of building more than you can sell on an ongoing basis, you have reversed the financial opportunity that was supposed to accrue by building more to begin with.
One day when you wake up and can no longer sell all you can make for some reason, it's a whole different ball game.
And come close to substituting in a number of cases that might still lead to a bit of rapid adoption.
More ideal as an incremental acquisition for many of those who already possess the mainstream merchandise. Not so much desirability for those that would have to choose one or the other. So that's a smaller subset of the niche.
Then there are those who find the novel solution is superior for their particular needs, an even smaller subset, but more enthusiastic.
Seems like the behavior would be to fly off the shelf until the subsets of the mainstream have been saturated, then plateau at the rate that the mainstream becomes amenable to replacement.
At the smallest of scale, like with handcrafted items, it can occasionally be easy to do well financially as long as you can sell all you can make. This can happen when they're "flying off the shelf" so there can be relentless pressure to just make more, and the pressure can seem unending when there is a multi-year timeline for any scale-up activities.
If the market matures at a less-giga-than-anticipated level, and you end up in the process of building more than you can sell on an ongoing basis, you have reversed the financial opportunity that was supposed to accrue by building more to begin with.
One day when you wake up and can no longer sell all you can make for some reason, it's a whole different ball game.
Not sure how it will affect things going forward, but the Model 3 may help. Jay Leno did an excellent segment about it a few weeks back, with a pair of Tesla engineers:
https://youtu.be/WLMalLy_3JU
https://youtu.be/WLMalLy_3JU
Making more Model 3s than Tesla can sell is a big part of the problem. The Model 3 and Y account for 43,000 out of the 46,000 unit overrun.
Tesla don't even dare show the Model 3 numbers. I suspect they are very, very low in comparison to the Model Y, looking at official sales numbers tracked in other countries.
If I were a Tesla stockholder I would be very disappointed in Tesla not breaking down sales like every other car manufacturer does.
It's starting to look increasingly boneheaded to spend time and money on the Cybertruck instead of a new lower-cost SUV (the Model Y isn't really a SUV in my book). Their platform is starting to feel dated compared to the competition. I'm sure some stuff from the Cybertruck platform will trickle down to the next like steer-by-wire and 800 V (which they are catching up on), but since I don't build cars, I don't know how amenable that platform is to build normal cars on.
If I were a Tesla stockholder I would be very disappointed in Tesla not breaking down sales like every other car manufacturer does.
It's starting to look increasingly boneheaded to spend time and money on the Cybertruck instead of a new lower-cost SUV (the Model Y isn't really a SUV in my book). Their platform is starting to feel dated compared to the competition. I'm sure some stuff from the Cybertruck platform will trickle down to the next like steer-by-wire and 800 V (which they are catching up on), but since I don't build cars, I don't know how amenable that platform is to build normal cars on.
Production constraints could be a regional problem. Model 3 highland only recently started showing up in inventory in the US and for now, it's only the standard range models and there are no inventory discounts. No long-range models are showing up in inventory (for me at least?). Plenty of Y are in inventory. I'd have bought one in Q1 but I don't qualify for the tax credit, so I went used.
Until Tesla changes their Model 3 sourcing to be eligible for the $7500 tax credit, I don’t understand who would buy one over the Model Y even with the “highland” improvements.
I don't know if it's the tax credit you're referring to, but in that video (15:35), they claim with tax credits the model 3 is available for under $30,000
https://youtu.be/WLMalLy_3JU?t=935
https://youtu.be/WLMalLy_3JU?t=935
Only the performance Model 3 is currently eligible for the Federal tax credit[1]. They may be referring to some generous state EV credits.
[1] https://insideevs.com/news/700533/tesla-model-3-rwd-long-ran...
[1] https://insideevs.com/news/700533/tesla-model-3-rwd-long-ran...
Some other context
As of Q3 2022, Tesla’s profit margins stand out significantly compared to its competitors:
Gross profit per car: $15,653 Net profit per car: $9,574
In comparison, other major automakers have lower profit margins:
General Motors (GM): Gross profit per car of $3,818 and net profit per car of $2,150.
Toyota: Gross profit per car of $3,925 and net profit per car of $1,197.
Volkswagen (VW): Gross profit per car of $6,034 and net profit per car of $973.
Hyundai: Gross profit per car of $5,362 and net profit per car of $927.
As of Q3 2022, Tesla’s profit margins stand out significantly compared to its competitors:
Gross profit per car: $15,653 Net profit per car: $9,574
In comparison, other major automakers have lower profit margins:
General Motors (GM): Gross profit per car of $3,818 and net profit per car of $2,150.
Toyota: Gross profit per car of $3,925 and net profit per car of $1,197.
Volkswagen (VW): Gross profit per car of $6,034 and net profit per car of $973.
Hyundai: Gross profit per car of $5,362 and net profit per car of $927.
You seem to know where to find these numbers (I don't), so do you know how that stacks up with luxury car manufacturers?
Most of those companies do compete with Tesla, but the price range of a Tesla ($40k to $90k for most models) lines up much more closely with Audi and BMW than any of those companies. I'd imagine that those companies would have higher gross margins if they didn't sell any cheap models or trims levels.
Most of those companies do compete with Tesla, but the price range of a Tesla ($40k to $90k for most models) lines up much more closely with Audi and BMW than any of those companies. I'd imagine that those companies would have higher gross margins if they didn't sell any cheap models or trims levels.
Here is operating margins of car companies, it puts Tesla behind BMW but ahead of Mercedes...
https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/automakers-ranked-...
https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/automakers-ranked-...
Any particular reason why you are looking at Q3 2022, other than the fact that 2021-2022 were a complete anomaly, due to Covid shortages and impacts ? It's all downhill from there - Tesla used to include their margin charts in the shareholder's deck, until Q4 2023. Care to comment why ? We all know why.
Let's wait 3 weeks and find out what Tesla margins are in Q1 2024.
Let's wait 3 weeks and find out what Tesla margins are in Q1 2024.
What's the difference between gross profit and net profit?
Gross profit is the money a company makes after subtracting the cost of producing its goods or services.
Net profit is what remains after all expenses, like operating costs, taxes, and interest, are deducted from the gross profit.
Net profit is what remains after all expenses, like operating costs, taxes, and interest, are deducted from the gross profit.
Ah, so gross profit is kind of like "this is how much we profited off this specific car", and net profit is "this is the average of how much we profited off all these cars"?
gross profit is "money we got for selling this car" - "all per car expenses". Net profit is - "all the other expenses a company has"
I could see this coming weeks ago: My local dealer was cold-calling existing owners to try to get them to buy the updated model 3, which isn't a very significant update at all. They had a bunch on the lot that weren't selling.
We can also see the promotion of a free trial for self-driving as a response to this too: Hoping some people bite after trying it out. Whether that happens, or we just see more videos of failed self-driving is another story.
Either way, Tesla hasn't done much to improve their normal models in 2 years. The cybertruck is barely in production, and it's hard to see it as having massive demand. Elon's cultural alignment with people that at the same time are being told that electric vehicles will be bad for America is probably not great for sales on either side of the cultural divide. Add high interest rates, and it's unsurprising to see trouble. But does anyone have enough shares to try to force Tesla to make significant changes in diection? Unlikely.
We can also see the promotion of a free trial for self-driving as a response to this too: Hoping some people bite after trying it out. Whether that happens, or we just see more videos of failed self-driving is another story.
Either way, Tesla hasn't done much to improve their normal models in 2 years. The cybertruck is barely in production, and it's hard to see it as having massive demand. Elon's cultural alignment with people that at the same time are being told that electric vehicles will be bad for America is probably not great for sales on either side of the cultural divide. Add high interest rates, and it's unsurprising to see trouble. But does anyone have enough shares to try to force Tesla to make significant changes in diection? Unlikely.
It seems like Tesla should focus on updating the Model Y, which is by far their best-selling model, instead of the 3. The typical US consumer is not all that excited about sedans anyway.
Isn’t Teslas whole schtick that they are dealer-free? Where is this? Is it a franchise?
He probably meant the local, Tesla employed, sales person or sales manager. Tesla has showrooms all over the country.
Interesting.
Tesla in Norway is all JIT sales. Cars are ordered and come straight from the docks to the customer. I did not expect Tesla showrooms in the us to carry stock.
Maybe walkin purchases are more common across the pond
Tesla in Norway is all JIT sales. Cars are ordered and come straight from the docks to the customer. I did not expect Tesla showrooms in the us to carry stock.
Maybe walkin purchases are more common across the pond
The new Model 3 is a significant update in many areas (noise, handling, cabin design).
Lots of talk about how Musk's controversies are hurting the company (agree!) but I think a bigger problem may be his tendency to hyper-focus on things. Many tesla models have not received significant updates or styling changes in years. Tesla is no longer brand new, the oldest production Model S'es are ~12 years old. Many of their changes have been along the line of company-wide changes or upgrades (which are also good) but people like having their new car look new, not like one from a decade ago. It feels like Musks companies suffer from hyperfocus, probably because effort is directed by the his attention, but car companies can't work like that.
Tesla has the Cybertruck now (is it shipping yet?). People love trucks, so this might work out great for TSLA.
But they don't really have an SUV, which is by far the most popular form factor. The Model Y is closest but it's still a bit car-ish.
Interest rates are up.
Their chairman is going through a very public ...episode.
They'll definitely overcome the headwinds: they still have superfans despite the Musk antics; they have lower leverage than GM/F [0]; there's a lot of regulatory pressure coming down the pipes over the next 10-30 years to phase out ICE engines.
[0]: https://valustox.com/GM
https://valustox.com/F
https://valustox.com/TSLA
But they don't really have an SUV, which is by far the most popular form factor. The Model Y is closest but it's still a bit car-ish.
Interest rates are up.
Their chairman is going through a very public ...episode.
They'll definitely overcome the headwinds: they still have superfans despite the Musk antics; they have lower leverage than GM/F [0]; there's a lot of regulatory pressure coming down the pipes over the next 10-30 years to phase out ICE engines.
[0]: https://valustox.com/GM
https://valustox.com/F
https://valustox.com/TSLA
> People love trucks, so this might work out great for TSLA.
1. there is essentially no market for pick-up trucks outside the US.
2. the market for pick-up trucks inside the US is dominated by suburban American dads. They love trucks because they can imagine pulling up to a job site in one. We all know, even the suburban dads, that if you pull up to a job site in a Cybertruck, the guys working there are going to laugh at you. Look into your heart. You know this to be true. That's the kiss of death. (That and the fact the panel gaps are like two inches.)
1. there is essentially no market for pick-up trucks outside the US.
2. the market for pick-up trucks inside the US is dominated by suburban American dads. They love trucks because they can imagine pulling up to a job site in one. We all know, even the suburban dads, that if you pull up to a job site in a Cybertruck, the guys working there are going to laugh at you. Look into your heart. You know this to be true. That's the kiss of death. (That and the fact the panel gaps are like two inches.)
Trucks are great for moving furniture, bringing garden material, wood, and mulch from the store.
I'm a Model Y owner and I still would not get a Cybertruck. If its too big for the Y I'll rent a Uhaul if its worth it, or borrow my friend's truck.
It would be a nice upgrade for my occasional camping trip to have the outlets and truck bed space for all the gear. so far the Model Y fits everything. give me a minivan-like vehicle though...
I'm a Model Y owner and I still would not get a Cybertruck. If its too big for the Y I'll rent a Uhaul if its worth it, or borrow my friend's truck.
It would be a nice upgrade for my occasional camping trip to have the outlets and truck bed space for all the gear. so far the Model Y fits everything. give me a minivan-like vehicle though...
Who cares - you can sustain an ultra successful vehicle just in the US. American suburban dads are an economic force on par with entire global regions. If they want cyber trucks, for any reason, TSLA will be just fine.
> 1. there is essentially no market for pick-up trucks outside the US
You’ve obviously never been to a war-torn country. The mid-sized Toyota/Nissan pickup with a machine gun mounted in the bed is the most popular vehicle by far.
You’ve obviously never been to a war-torn country. The mid-sized Toyota/Nissan pickup with a machine gun mounted in the bed is the most popular vehicle by far.
Tesla has the Cybertruck now (is it shipping yet?). People love trucks, so this might work out great for TSLA.
Here in Redmond, where buying a Tesla seems to be a rite of passage for Microsoft employees, I will often see three Teslas at an intersection (and maybe one behind me). The things are everywhere. If you've got a dead cat, careful you don't hit a Tesla when you swing it around.
And I've seen a total of one Cybertruck. Either not that many have been made and shipped, or no one is buying. People do love trucks, and they even love electric ones because I seen Rivians all the time (and a few Lightnings). But I've only seen the one lonely, butt-ugly Cybertruck.
Here in Redmond, where buying a Tesla seems to be a rite of passage for Microsoft employees, I will often see three Teslas at an intersection (and maybe one behind me). The things are everywhere. If you've got a dead cat, careful you don't hit a Tesla when you swing it around.
And I've seen a total of one Cybertruck. Either not that many have been made and shipped, or no one is buying. People do love trucks, and they even love electric ones because I seen Rivians all the time (and a few Lightnings). But I've only seen the one lonely, butt-ugly Cybertruck.
Good luck with that thesis and sorry for your loss.
I’m a value investor and wouldn’t touch Tesla for at least another 10 years
[deleted]
Not surprising. They are experiencing serious scaling difficulties with the new "Highland" Model 3. The community [0] thinks that there are supply chain issues with several components in the Long Range variant of these cars, the white seats being especially bottlenecked.
[0] https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-highland-us-...
[0] https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-highland-us-...
Others are gaining market share fast, especially on S/X vs. German luxury EVs. But the whole industry is far behind where they thought total vehicle sales would be in 2023-2024, the cause being high loan/lease payments in the US, and weak Chinese consumer demand overall. So part of this is unique to Tesla, but part is an industry that was expecting 2023-4 to be much better than it has been so far.
This seems largely to be blogspam. There is a less clickbaity version from Reuters [0].
[0] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas...
[0] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas...
Are Tesla sales levelling off?
I'm not convinced that electric cars are going to be mainstream, apart at the high end, for a few decades.
I'm not convinced that electric cars are going to be mainstream, apart at the high end, for a few decades.
It's already around 20% of all cars sold globally last year. And prices are still dropping. https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-ma...
Dropping prices are what are going to move EVs IMHO. On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost. My understanding is that the battery is the expensive component — and I understand the prices of those keep coming down.
> On paper they are so much simpler than ICE vehicles they should be a fraction of the cost.
Except for the $20,000 battery in each of these Tesla vehicles.
That battery pack is basically the cost of a Chevy TRAX. And the battery is that expensive because its a complicated mess of chemicals: Lithium, Nickle, Cobalt... with complex battery-management systems (op-amps, transistors, MOSFETs) that can handle 800V and 250+ Amps of current, in a load-balanced way in both power and charging directions... designed for longetivity and safety.
Come on, its not actually that simple. The 15-gears that make up the Toyota Prius Power Split Device (serving as Transmission, Generator, and Starter) is obviously simpler in both chemical composition, sourcing (only uses Steel), and assembly.
-----------
And building a 13kW-hr battery pack at 200lbs with a fraction of the power, and smaller electric motors at 110 hp out of cheap magnets (instead of Tesla's rare-earth magnets pushing 600+ horsepower or whatever) is also more environmentally friendly.
A lot of the problems with Tesla vehicles are self-imposed. They aim at absurdly high horsepower for not really much benefit to the typical everyday driver.
Except for the $20,000 battery in each of these Tesla vehicles.
That battery pack is basically the cost of a Chevy TRAX. And the battery is that expensive because its a complicated mess of chemicals: Lithium, Nickle, Cobalt... with complex battery-management systems (op-amps, transistors, MOSFETs) that can handle 800V and 250+ Amps of current, in a load-balanced way in both power and charging directions... designed for longetivity and safety.
Come on, its not actually that simple. The 15-gears that make up the Toyota Prius Power Split Device (serving as Transmission, Generator, and Starter) is obviously simpler in both chemical composition, sourcing (only uses Steel), and assembly.
-----------
And building a 13kW-hr battery pack at 200lbs with a fraction of the power, and smaller electric motors at 110 hp out of cheap magnets (instead of Tesla's rare-earth magnets pushing 600+ horsepower or whatever) is also more environmentally friendly.
A lot of the problems with Tesla vehicles are self-imposed. They aim at absurdly high horsepower for not really much benefit to the typical everyday driver.
> Are Tesla sales levelling off?
No. Tesla sales are dropping. This is worse than "leveling off".
EDIT: Tesla hasn't had sales this low in a quarter since 2022.
No. Tesla sales are dropping. This is worse than "leveling off".
EDIT: Tesla hasn't had sales this low in a quarter since 2022.
In one decade it will be illegal to sell an ICE car in California (and about 20 other states) and Canada. Your prediction is silly.
In my opinion governments are likely to change those deadlines as they approach.
Does anyone know by what measure/scale other major car manufacturers over produce vehicles in a year?
I suspect Tesla has wiggle room to discount this batch of vehicles to get them out the door quickly, the rebate will be built into the price of the vehicles this year so i'm curious how much that will reflect in the price drop.
I suspect Tesla has wiggle room to discount this batch of vehicles to get them out the door quickly, the rebate will be built into the price of the vehicles this year so i'm curious how much that will reflect in the price drop.
I have a feeling most people who want a Tesla already have a Tesla.
Now Tesla has to fight and sway those who are looking to purchase their next vehicle.
It doesn’t help that Elon is playing politics and driving a large crowd away from Tesla brand. Also there are many repair horror stories. So the brand seems tainted.
Now Tesla has to fight and sway those who are looking to purchase their next vehicle.
It doesn’t help that Elon is playing politics and driving a large crowd away from Tesla brand. Also there are many repair horror stories. So the brand seems tainted.
I have a Tesla with EAP. I’m not buying another Tesla unless I can transfer this over. Not with the prices for software DLCs they have today.
What’s fascinating is that they have this transfer for FSD, but not EAP.
Anyone from Tesla sales reading this, reach out to me and you may have a customer :)
What’s fascinating is that they have this transfer for FSD, but not EAP.
Anyone from Tesla sales reading this, reach out to me and you may have a customer :)
I'm not sure if the latest Model 3 upgrade is going to sell as well as the previous ones. Some changes are bad.
Eg: Someone I know struggles with turn signals. We have a few roundabouts here and it can be a bit confusing on tighter turns when the buttons are upside down.
Eg: Someone I know struggles with turn signals. We have a few roundabouts here and it can be a bit confusing on tighter turns when the buttons are upside down.
Some things to think about.
- Tesla's charging network is opening up. I think this used to be the single biggest selling point.
- Tesla's repairability is not great, neither are the insurance rates.
- The 4680's have not exactly changed the world... might have made things cheaper for Tesla but that is about it.
- Some folks might think that Teslas aversion to buttons has reached peak dumb. Latest model 3 has even ditched the turn signals and drive-selector stalks...
- Requiring FSD demos prior to sales? GTFO.
- Musk is officially more of a liability than an asset.
- Tesla's charging network is opening up. I think this used to be the single biggest selling point.
- Tesla's repairability is not great, neither are the insurance rates.
- The 4680's have not exactly changed the world... might have made things cheaper for Tesla but that is about it.
- Some folks might think that Teslas aversion to buttons has reached peak dumb. Latest model 3 has even ditched the turn signals and drive-selector stalks...
- Requiring FSD demos prior to sales? GTFO.
- Musk is officially more of a liability than an asset.
So trying to establish how to attribute this to:
- World wide supply issues (Red Sea) - TSLA specific issues (Strikes, Pay Dispute) - Overall demand for EVs - to this factor, any good benchmarks out there to establish demand?
- World wide supply issues (Red Sea) - TSLA specific issues (Strikes, Pay Dispute) - Overall demand for EVs - to this factor, any good benchmarks out there to establish demand?
It's not an under-supply problem that supply chain or unions or demand would cause. It's an over-supply problem. Tesla made 46,000 more cars than it could sell.
Rivian is not doing well either: https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/02/rivian-started-a-tough-yea...
In addition Ford, Lucid and Fisker are also scaling back and not selling EV's as well.
I think this points to a falling EV market.
In addition Ford, Lucid and Fisker are also scaling back and not selling EV's as well.
I think this points to a falling EV market.
Txs, yes sentiment clearly seems to have shifted down. 6 months ago I was sold on my next daily driver being fully electric but now looking at hybrid (phev)
I think the market is tapped out for EV's at the moment. Most people seem to want plug in hybrids vs. full EV's.
Ok we had our one hour of HN reality, now the post making national news off the page and the we are back in fansty land.
For comparison GM's total EV sales for Q1 2024 were 16,425, down 15% from 19,305 in Q4 2023.
GM's total sales were down 1.5%
GM's total sales were down 1.5%
Tesla's target consumer is not the sort of person who shares Musk's personal or political views. Add the facts that you can't even be sure what you're going to get when you buy one of their cars, that the company has constantly overpromised and underdelivered, interest rates are high, and there's simply more competition in the electric space... why buy a Tesla?
Aside from all of that, Musk's views on his expectations from employees alone would have been enough to turn me off from ever purchasing one of those cars.
Aside from all of that, Musk's views on his expectations from employees alone would have been enough to turn me off from ever purchasing one of those cars.
Tesla Minivan incoming to save the day.
Make a safety and family oriented cool van and I'll buy one
Make a safety and family oriented cool van and I'll buy one
(at least internationally) Tesla has failed so far to provide a low cost EV when all their competitors already have. There is a limited number of people who buy them for the prestige factor, but it s a small population. I m thinking of a Volvo EV but would consider a Tesla if they had one in the same category/price ranges.
Pretty much nobody cares if it's self driving
Pretty much nobody cares if it's self driving
A CEO that doesn't take responsibility is a major issue. Unfortunately shareholders will have to punish him.
Setting aside the antics of the CEO, Teslas are increasingly unappealing. I don't want a "yoke", I don't want everything on a touch screen, and I don't want to try to navigate a roundabout using signal buttons on a steering wheel in the winter. I do want CarPlay.
A lot of this stuff is blatant cost-cutting with a fig leaf of "it's futuristic".
A lot of this stuff is blatant cost-cutting with a fig leaf of "it's futuristic".
I think the problem is that Musk is injecting more and more of his “design” philosophy into everything. This does not inspire confidence. Tesla needed a new CEO yesterday.
EVs will crawl out of their trough of disillusionment
it will take time though
in ten years there will be vastly more EVs than today
ICE is still on the way out
it will take time though
in ten years there will be vastly more EVs than today
ICE is still on the way out
top down government technology mandates never work. the early adopters and rich california folks all already have EVs. normal people don’t want them
toyota was right and that’s why i got their hybrid vehicle instead of an EV
toyota was right and that’s why i got their hybrid vehicle instead of an EV
I’m a “normal person” and I’d love one. But they’re too expensive and the charging situation near me isn’t great.
When talking about market demand, the only thing that matters is how many people will actually spend money on the thing. Wanting something hypothetically if a bunch of additional conditions are met doesn't really help Tesla. Basically, Toyota was right.
It sounds like you like the idea of EVs but not the reality. I'm in the same boat; it's a cool technology, just not currently very practical for my situation. Maybe future technology and infrastructure improvements will change that someday, but we aren't there yet, at least not for me.
Right, as much as anything I was addressing the OP's statement "top down government technology mandates never work". Some technologies need top down help to achieve viability and to my mind EVs fit that bill. If the government help bootstrap the industry it could easily achieve viability over the years. It's hardly without precedent: would car travel be the same without the interstate highway system?
I'm curious, how much would you spend on a car?
The $7,500 rebate sort of tweaked with the value system in my head and got my to purchase my model Y. also with not dealing with dealerships was a huge +
The $7,500 rebate sort of tweaked with the value system in my head and got my to purchase my model Y. also with not dealing with dealerships was a huge +
I love the rhetoric that simultaneously paints California as rich yet wrong with policy. "Those successful Californians are failures!"
wow so right!! those saudi sheikhs must have really good policies too. rich = correct
[deleted]
First, my experience 2 years ago was the A/C compressor was so loud that during summer with cooling running at maximum, you couldn’t hold a conversation in the cabin because of the noise. Tesla investigated and eventually said “looks fine to us, there isn’t designed to be any additional noise abatement on the firewall between the front and the passenger space”. We had issues with our Falcon Wing doors, and we eventually sold the vehicle after a year.
Now, our friends Model X, that’s had ~6 non-trivial maintenance problems in six months, including the Falcon Wing doors failing three times, and they’re in the process of trying to get a refund through Lemon Laws.
Other acquaintances who own Teslas also have service issues on their Model X, the Cybertruck looks like an even worse mess, so I concluded over a span of multiple years, quality still isn’t a strong suit of Tesla, thus I’m not shocked to see there’s limited brand loyaly, and with increasingly viable competition, demand is falling?
I now have a Rivian R1S and we are incredibly happy with that vehicle, having put about 6000 miles on it. Mercedes EQS also seems like a reasonable choice in 2024, depending on what you want.