SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005(swpc.noaa.gov)
swpc.noaa.gov
SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005
32 comments
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If you have a pair of eclipse glasses you may be able to see the sunspot cluster causing all the action with them, it’s enormous.
I just went a took a look, seems like I could see sunspots around the 3oclock position.
I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof. Mathew Owens post [4]
[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-das... [2] https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/global-positioning-sys... [4] https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1788655731471696372
[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-das... [2] https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/global-positioning-sys... [4] https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1788655731471696372
Why are you worried? Not saying you're wrong to be worried, but I'm interested to know what the actual concern is.
My concern comes from my own naïveté. I don’t know enough about flying to know how concerned I should be.
Hearing there’s a storm that affects navigation is an eyebrow-raiser, especially when sitting at an airport gate like I am.
Hearing there’s a storm that affects navigation is an eyebrow-raiser, especially when sitting at an airport gate like I am.
Totally makes sense - if we don't understand what's going on, our minds immediately go to a worst case scenario. I hope you have a safe and enjoyable flight - at this point you're putting your trust in the hands of air travel regulators, and they have a pretty solid track record of safety.
There can be interruptions to radio communications and GPS, but there's multiple ways that airplanes track where they were and where they're headed. In addition to GPS, airliners have Inertial Reference Units which the aircraft can use to figure out where they are.
The big impact to humans from storms like these are the miles-long antennas (also known as power lines) that can pick up a charge from the energized particles streaming from the sun and cause damage to transformers and other equipment.
So, your flight will be fine, but worst case scenario maybe you will land at a place that won't have power.
There can be interruptions to radio communications and GPS, but there's multiple ways that airplanes track where they were and where they're headed. In addition to GPS, airliners have Inertial Reference Units which the aircraft can use to figure out where they are.
The big impact to humans from storms like these are the miles-long antennas (also known as power lines) that can pick up a charge from the energized particles streaming from the sun and cause damage to transformers and other equipment.
So, your flight will be fine, but worst case scenario maybe you will land at a place that won't have power.
In addition to the points others have made, flights that pass near the poles are often rerouted to lower latitudes.
This site is also pretty good:
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/
Looks promising so far.
Edit: damn those values are crazy. Gonna climb the mountain tonight. Fingers crossed for a clear sky
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/
Looks promising so far.
Edit: damn those values are crazy. Gonna climb the mountain tonight. Fingers crossed for a clear sky
I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?
>Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?
An airplane is a big closed conductive tube, not connected to the ground. There's nothing to worry about. I'd happily fly on those days.
As for why we worry about the storms on the ground - the main effects of Geomagnetic storms on the ground involve DC currents generated in power grids that span hundreds of miles, at the ends of those transmission lines, are transformers engineered to most efficiently use the transformer steel by almost pushing it to saturation, at which it rapidly loses the ability to contain more lines of flux. This saturation can then allow almost unlimited amounts of current to flow, turning the transformer into a space heater, connected to gigawatts of power. Things can then very rapidly get out of hand, circuits fault, opening lines, causing power to be diverted elsewhere, until the entire grid goes down.
No such issues can happen in an airframe.
An airplane is a big closed conductive tube, not connected to the ground. There's nothing to worry about. I'd happily fly on those days.
As for why we worry about the storms on the ground - the main effects of Geomagnetic storms on the ground involve DC currents generated in power grids that span hundreds of miles, at the ends of those transmission lines, are transformers engineered to most efficiently use the transformer steel by almost pushing it to saturation, at which it rapidly loses the ability to contain more lines of flux. This saturation can then allow almost unlimited amounts of current to flow, turning the transformer into a space heater, connected to gigawatts of power. Things can then very rapidly get out of hand, circuits fault, opening lines, causing power to be diverted elsewhere, until the entire grid goes down.
No such issues can happen in an airframe.
Thanks for this explanation, this is exactly why I love Hacker News :D
I was trying to find stuff around Oct 2003 when the last event of this magnitude took place, but I wasn't able to find anything comparable. From what I can tell the forecast is more mild on the 12th UTC, so I wouldn't worry that much about that. I was worried in my case because my flight leaves pretty much at the apex of the geomagnetic storm.
I think we can expect delays, GPS being unresponsive, radio issues, and some control tower congestion & issues. Can't really comment with any more detail.
I think we can expect delays, GPS being unresponsive, radio issues, and some control tower congestion & issues. Can't really comment with any more detail.
Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 there's already been a G4 in march and it didn't seem to have caused any issues (AFAIK).
The March G4 was unexpected. I wouldn't be surprised if this one turns out to be much stronger than is modeled today as well.
in link [4], what timezone is displayed? trying to figure out if I will be at the day or night side
all of them are UTC I believe, Prof. Mat answer to a question about the tz on the post replies
Are you worried enough to not fly?
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I am confused by the slide, which mentions in the first bullet point that this is the first "G4" since 2005, but in the last bullet point says there was one in March.
It’s the first G4 watch, but not the first G4 event. In other words, the prior G4 event was not predicted. It can happen that an event is more significant when it arrives than what was predicted, which is what happened here.
A G4 storm was forecast yesterday, but guess what—a G5 was observed: https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed. As with G4 before, not predicted.
It also resulted in Aurora visible in Mexico.
it's a typo, Mar 2024 was a G3, not G4. ref https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39796973 and link in comments there.
[edit] i stand corrected, there was a G4 in march. sibling comment is correct. ref https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-...
[edit] i stand corrected, there was a G4 in march. sibling comment is correct. ref https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-...
Tony Philips with NASA runs Spaceweather.com. Yesterday he posted a pic, with an overlay from the 1859 Carrington Event sunspot. They are the same size. Let that sink in.
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...
> Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue. Don't worry, though. The four CMEs currently en route to Earth--even combined--are probably no match for the monster CME of 1859. The Carrington Event won't happen again this weekend.
the solar spot is comparable in size but the CME were significantly (100x) less energetic than is estimated for Carrington. With that said, the Earth's magnetic field has weakened by ~15% since the 1800s so there's that...
There are 6 X-class flares. Solar Flares can cannibalize each other. If the different flares travel at different velocities. Leading to a larger impact. Obviously, we were not able to measure how many solar flares came from the Carrington Event or if this cannibalization occurred.
[dupe]
More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40315394
More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40315394
One of these days I'll see the Northern Lights.... somehow I don't think this will be it. 8(