Instagram Is Over(theatlantic.com)
theatlantic.com
Instagram Is Over
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/11/instagram-tiktok-twitter-social-media-competition/672305/
225 comments
I feel like there’s a natural adoption curve to social media:
1. The growing social media platform balances the needs of two user groups: the consumer’s need for fresh content and the neophyte producer’s need for a slowly ramping trickle of validation. This is possible because the people don’t know how to produce content in the new format yet.
2. The mature social media platform has picked winners. We know who the successful youtubers are, the successful twitch streamers, etc., and they know how to create the optimal media for their platform. At this point we’re maximally satisfying consumer demand, but we’re actively repelling the neophyte producers because the bar is now too high. They form a growing untapped market for the next social media platform.
3. Decay. A competing platform has stolen the limelight by restoring the dynamism of the consumer/producer balance. The successful producers of the platform start flexing out to the new upstart, though they’re unlikely to repeat their successes there, they’re too late to the game and bound to old habits. Chasing feature parity with the new platform does nothing because now you’re just upsetting the existing balance but that’s not suddenly going to pull new people into the game, they’ve already written you off.
1. The growing social media platform balances the needs of two user groups: the consumer’s need for fresh content and the neophyte producer’s need for a slowly ramping trickle of validation. This is possible because the people don’t know how to produce content in the new format yet.
2. The mature social media platform has picked winners. We know who the successful youtubers are, the successful twitch streamers, etc., and they know how to create the optimal media for their platform. At this point we’re maximally satisfying consumer demand, but we’re actively repelling the neophyte producers because the bar is now too high. They form a growing untapped market for the next social media platform.
3. Decay. A competing platform has stolen the limelight by restoring the dynamism of the consumer/producer balance. The successful producers of the platform start flexing out to the new upstart, though they’re unlikely to repeat their successes there, they’re too late to the game and bound to old habits. Chasing feature parity with the new platform does nothing because now you’re just upsetting the existing balance but that’s not suddenly going to pull new people into the game, they’ve already written you off.
Some social media are like that, others are not. When I read “It’s that I don’t see my actual friend’s posts and they don’t see mine.” I thought that my friends do see my posts and viceversa because we use channels on WhatsApp and Telegram. If all I want is keeping in touch with friends, why should I use media like Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok?
The original idea is that you can share this same photo to all your friends and family at once. That’s why it’s superior to 1:1 messaging apps.
The problem is you start following strangers which causes the app to transforms itself to promote strangers over friends and family to meet monthly usage goals. It’s a viscous cycle.
The problem is you start following strangers which causes the app to transforms itself to promote strangers over friends and family to meet monthly usage goals. It’s a viscous cycle.
Agreed. I can't help but feel that many current social media platforms are on step 3 right now.
It's how everything on the internet dies. Advertising infects and ruins pretty much everything. Even normal websites are just as bad, they even have the exact same escalating ads problem. By now the web is unusable without uBlock Origin and Instagram's problem is we can't install an ad blocker on it.
There should be a way to speed up this cycle to make them fail faster. These corporations are making way too much money selling off our attention to the highest bidder as if it was their property.
There should be a way to speed up this cycle to make them fail faster. These corporations are making way too much money selling off our attention to the highest bidder as if it was their property.
> There should be a way to speed up this cycle to make them fail faster
One way is to consciously leach off them. Use their resources while blocking all of their user tracking and display of advertising. A strategy somewhat stymied however by people who consider it their 'moral duty' to allow themselves to be brainwashed by advertising so as to 'support' these companies.
One way is to consciously leach off them. Use their resources while blocking all of their user tracking and display of advertising. A strategy somewhat stymied however by people who consider it their 'moral duty' to allow themselves to be brainwashed by advertising so as to 'support' these companies.
Yes, that is what I do. I don't even consider it "leeching" either. They sent me the web page for free, I simply deleted parts of it. They assumed I would look at the ads but unfortunately for them their assumptions just aren't going to work out.
It's ridiculous when I see the "moral duty" argument. Moral duty my ass, they aren't entitled to a thing. Actually it's our moral duty and imperative to oppose such corporate abuses. We are not cattle to be sold to the highest bidder. This neo-techno-feudalism bullshit must end.
AdNauseam is also an ingenious idea since it actually costs them money and directly drives down their returns on investment. Advertising should have negative returns.
It's ridiculous when I see the "moral duty" argument. Moral duty my ass, they aren't entitled to a thing. Actually it's our moral duty and imperative to oppose such corporate abuses. We are not cattle to be sold to the highest bidder. This neo-techno-feudalism bullshit must end.
AdNauseam is also an ingenious idea since it actually costs them money and directly drives down their returns on investment. Advertising should have negative returns.
We should stop letting them have it as if it was their property.
Yes. Advertising should be illegal. Failing that, there should be ubiquitous technology to render it completely ineffective by deleting ads in real time, destroying any and all returns on their advertising investment.
One day someone smarter than me will make some machine learning thing that deletes brands from videos in real time.
One day someone smarter than me will make some machine learning thing that deletes brands from videos in real time.
YouTube figured it out, whether it was intentional or not. Let me pay money to not see ads. I watch a lot of YouTub & have a premium subscription. If I needed to watch unskippable ads, or any pre roll ads, I’d mostly stop using YouTube at all.
No. Paying money not to see ads is completely backwards, it's just extortion. Why should I pay to avoid having my attention stolen or my mind programmed with corporation trademarks? It should be illegal for them to even attempt to invade my mind like this. My mind is mine, it's not a blank slate for them to insert their little brands at will. Advertising is aggression and ad blocking is self defense.
Paying any amount of money just drives up the value of your attention. If you can afford to pay off the advertising platform, then you obviously have enough disposable income to waste on the products the advertisers wants to sell to you. In the end, you're helping them segment the market and paying for the privilege.
In YouTube's case, you're paying to avoid ads but you're still being advertised to since videos now have hardcoded sponsored segments. You're also being constantly tracked by Google's surveillance. So you're still gonna have to use uBlock Origin and SponsorBlock if you want to avoid advertising or tracking.
Paying any amount of money just drives up the value of your attention. If you can afford to pay off the advertising platform, then you obviously have enough disposable income to waste on the products the advertisers wants to sell to you. In the end, you're helping them segment the market and paying for the privilege.
In YouTube's case, you're paying to avoid ads but you're still being advertised to since videos now have hardcoded sponsored segments. You're also being constantly tracked by Google's surveillance. So you're still gonna have to use uBlock Origin and SponsorBlock if you want to avoid advertising or tracking.
You are paying directly for servers, admin, content creators, and bandwidth in real money.
Instead of wasting time watching annoying ads.
I think it’s a great deal.
Instead of wasting time watching annoying ads.
I think it’s a great deal.
Advertising being illegal would be completely different story: no ads in the content itself. No 'sponsored' videos, no ads meant for other people (inside a browser in the video, on the street in the video).
Also, it's just not feasible to say 'let me pay money to not see ads'. You can pay for netflix, youtube, google search.. but what about the long-tail of all the sites you visit? I think Brave or somebody tried solving it with micro transactions but automatically deducting money also does not work that way because most of the content is trash I would not be happy to pay $0.005 for.
Also, it's just not feasible to say 'let me pay money to not see ads'. You can pay for netflix, youtube, google search.. but what about the long-tail of all the sites you visit? I think Brave or somebody tried solving it with micro transactions but automatically deducting money also does not work that way because most of the content is trash I would not be happy to pay $0.005 for.
> Advertising should be illegal.
Arguably, it should not be a tax-deductible business expense for businesses. At least not beyond, say, 20% of cost of goods sold.
Arguably, it should not be a tax-deductible business expense for businesses. At least not beyond, say, 20% of cost of goods sold.
This isn't my experience with Instagram at all. I only follow people I know personally, check in once or twice a day and see posts and stories from them and really nothing else. No sponsored posts, no reels, etc. Maybe some ads. I don't use the discover page and stop scrolling my feed once I get through all the new posts so maybe that's it.
All mine has devolved to is trying to get me to watch absurd reels posts from half naked women trying to send me to an OnlyFans. Asking around to people I know they have experienced the same. I just stopped using it. It didn’t help that I realized every post on Instagram authentic or not is really just an ad. Even for people I know, it is an ad trying to sell me that their life is different than I know it is.
So, while I 100% agree with the original premise--that Instagram is filled with ads and content farms, with relatively few "real users" to be found--this specific complaint is actually "a you thing": Instagram's feed algorithm ranks content in ways that seems to give the wrong players power (such as by giving more weight to people who merely steal and aggregate content than the ones who produce it), but it isn't entirely incompetent.
I am, thereby, going to claim that, if you are getting nothing but half naked women on Instagram on your feed, it is because you actually "wanted" to see half naked women (...maybe "merely" subconsciously! as, while I am not entirely sure about Instagram, TikTok is apparently tracking implicit watch time more so than explicit actions, and maybe you stop for just a bit longer on such content as it catches your eye).
In contrast to your experience, I recently went through a devastating breakup, and my algorithmic Instagram feed seriously has no half naked women on it: it is, instead, nothing but an intense pile of captioned voices (like, an audio with text, but not video of that person) saying pseudo-motivational quotes about relationships ("if she had wanted to make time, she would have" sort of shit) with inspirational background music overlapped with videos of people "making stuff" (such as carpentry).
It is demoralizing to experience: I go into Instagram for whatever reason, start scrolling by accident, and then a half hour later I am at the bottom of a pit of emotions crying my eyes out while clutching a pillow and I am lucky if I escape even an hour after that :(... but, the algorithm does't care about my mental health: it only knows that if it shows me videos that cluster along these axes I apparently am willing to spend the rest of my life watching ads (which make up about 1/4th of the content on Instagram).
I am, thereby, going to claim that, if you are getting nothing but half naked women on Instagram on your feed, it is because you actually "wanted" to see half naked women (...maybe "merely" subconsciously! as, while I am not entirely sure about Instagram, TikTok is apparently tracking implicit watch time more so than explicit actions, and maybe you stop for just a bit longer on such content as it catches your eye).
In contrast to your experience, I recently went through a devastating breakup, and my algorithmic Instagram feed seriously has no half naked women on it: it is, instead, nothing but an intense pile of captioned voices (like, an audio with text, but not video of that person) saying pseudo-motivational quotes about relationships ("if she had wanted to make time, she would have" sort of shit) with inspirational background music overlapped with videos of people "making stuff" (such as carpentry).
It is demoralizing to experience: I go into Instagram for whatever reason, start scrolling by accident, and then a half hour later I am at the bottom of a pit of emotions crying my eyes out while clutching a pillow and I am lucky if I escape even an hour after that :(... but, the algorithm does't care about my mental health: it only knows that if it shows me videos that cluster along these axes I apparently am willing to spend the rest of my life watching ads (which make up about 1/4th of the content on Instagram).
My friend - apologies for your experience.
In my experience, you can clean up your feed of unwanted content pretty quickly. Just go to discover and long tap > "Not Interested" on the stuff that's of the genre you want to filter out of your life.
I do this every couple months with IG babes & thot accounts to keep my feed free of sexual imagery. Works a charm.
In my experience, you can clean up your feed of unwanted content pretty quickly. Just go to discover and long tap > "Not Interested" on the stuff that's of the genre you want to filter out of your life.
I do this every couple months with IG babes & thot accounts to keep my feed free of sexual imagery. Works a charm.
Wow I did not know this exists.
How many people do you "know"? Because I follow about 50 people I know, and only around 20 of them post with any regularity, and Instagram injects "Suggested Posts" throughout my feed. I'd say it's majority "Suggested Posts" on most days. And then I'll stumble on a nice photo that a real friend posted, and it's from 3 days ago.
I am in the same situation as you but as soon as you have caught up with the posts from friends (which if you only have a few hundreds and check everyday goes very quickly), it's literally only sponsored posts.
I just checked right now, I scrolled through 10 posts of accounts that I follow, which took 30 seconds, before getting "You're all caught up" and having literally only spam posts.
And I don't even go on Instagram every day.
I just checked right now, I scrolled through 10 posts of accounts that I follow, which took 30 seconds, before getting "You're all caught up" and having literally only spam posts.
And I don't even go on Instagram every day.
That's true, but I consider "you're all caught up" to mean "it's time to close the tab and do something else." Honestly it's really great of Instagram to provide a convenient stopping point like that instead of an infinite scroll.
I true that. That article seems like a big cap to me, younger generations including me still use it pretty avidly. Interesting that there is such a different perception on that
When the accountants make the decisions, the company must die.
Hey don’t blame the accountants. The root problem is that these services don’t actually have a business plan other than grow, sell ads. Instagram is 12 years old and their leadership hasn’t come up with anything that makes money.
Indeed, seems to be a very common pattern. Poor search, low signal to noise, try to reinforce doom scrolling for more eyeball minutes.
I didn't realize how big an impact that had, till I tried Mastodon. No ads, no patterns to try to keep you online longer. Just posts from who you follow.
What's worse is apparently cell and bluetooth tracking of all customers in realtime is becoming more common. So retailers can optimize their floor layouts so you have to go through as much of the store as possible to get what you want. Trying to stretch out the experience, show you the most ads/products, and lower the signal to noise down close to zero, just like ad driven social media.
I didn't realize how big an impact that had, till I tried Mastodon. No ads, no patterns to try to keep you online longer. Just posts from who you follow.
What's worse is apparently cell and bluetooth tracking of all customers in realtime is becoming more common. So retailers can optimize their floor layouts so you have to go through as much of the store as possible to get what you want. Trying to stretch out the experience, show you the most ads/products, and lower the signal to noise down close to zero, just like ad driven social media.
This is 100% my experience with facebook. It used to be bearable, but once covid and WFH hit globally, they changed ratio of adverts massively overnight, making the use of product a sufferfest for people like me who are allergic to ads. Unfortunately not even ublock origin can handle all of their embedded ads.
Well, I certainly will never ever miss FB but those contacts would be nice to preserve somehow...
Well, I certainly will never ever miss FB but those contacts would be nice to preserve somehow...
I would agree up until the myspace part. Myspace died simply because facebook was percieved as way trendier at the time. The transition happened while myspace was more or less at its peak and I don't remember many adds or major changes to the platform until more like 2007 2008 after it had sold and was basically completely irrelevant
I thought "pulling a MySpace" was selling out for an over $1 billion (inflation adjusted) payday and deciding to enjoy life.
Maybe that's "pulling a Tom from MySpace"
Maybe that's "pulling a Tom from MySpace"
That summary nails down my experience to a T. I don't know how anyone can use it.
> something small but noticeable—like wearing a fedora—that immediately turns you off forever.
There seems to be a thing that some people hate "fedoras". I think it's to do with the "Fedora guy" meme. The hat Jerry Messing appears in is not a fedora; it's a trilby.
A trilby is a hat with a quite narrow brim, and stiffened; it's often woven and patterned. It can be made of just about anything (such as leather). You can't really mess with the brim; it's flipped up at the back and down at the front, and it stays that way.
A fedora is a soft felt hat with a wide brim. The hats worn by both the cops and the robbers in 30's gangster movies are all fedoras. Felt hats are not woven; they're felted, and that means they have to be made of wool or fur (I guess a panama fedora is an exception, but then I think a panama fedora is just a panama hat that is the same shape as a real fedora).
Where I come from, a trilby is associated with racecourse bookies and the criminal fraternity, as well as tacky seaside "kiss-me-quick" hats, made of something like cardboard. Fedoras, on the contrary, are stylish.
They're also very functional. They shed rain like an umbrella, without dumping it down your neck. The only thing wrong with them is that they make a good aerofoil - you have to "hold onto your hats" if it's windy.
There seems to be a thing that some people hate "fedoras". I think it's to do with the "Fedora guy" meme. The hat Jerry Messing appears in is not a fedora; it's a trilby.
A trilby is a hat with a quite narrow brim, and stiffened; it's often woven and patterned. It can be made of just about anything (such as leather). You can't really mess with the brim; it's flipped up at the back and down at the front, and it stays that way.
A fedora is a soft felt hat with a wide brim. The hats worn by both the cops and the robbers in 30's gangster movies are all fedoras. Felt hats are not woven; they're felted, and that means they have to be made of wool or fur (I guess a panama fedora is an exception, but then I think a panama fedora is just a panama hat that is the same shape as a real fedora).
Where I come from, a trilby is associated with racecourse bookies and the criminal fraternity, as well as tacky seaside "kiss-me-quick" hats, made of something like cardboard. Fedoras, on the contrary, are stylish.
They're also very functional. They shed rain like an umbrella, without dumping it down your neck. The only thing wrong with them is that they make a good aerofoil - you have to "hold onto your hats" if it's windy.
This comment is imperceptible from a parody of a hacker news comment.
It perfectly captures the original characterization of the meme. I really hope they are in on the joke.
Indistinguishable?
I think it’s a copypasta but I can’t quite recall.
You are mistaken. If there's someone on the internet that agrees with me, then I'm surprised! I composed it myself, and I didn't refer to other sources.
If I quote someone else here, I put it in quotes.
If I quote someone else here, I put it in quotes.
"Actually, it's a trilby" is a point that was made already 10 years ago when fedora hate was at its peak.
Imagine there's a meme called "ignorant Ferrari guy" but in the meme he's actually driving a Porsche. That's what the fedora guy meme feels like to anyone who knows anything about hats, so of course this point gets made over and over again.
Yeah I probably mixed it up with something on the same subject.
no hits on google; it appears to be original
well it's saved in my copypasta file now
I usually just upvote and move on, not to add a noisy comment to the discussion; however you comment was so informative and well-written that I felt compelled to comment on it.
For those who want to try the fedora, I recommend the “Indiana Jones” look (https://herbertjohnson.co.uk/collections/indiana-jones-colle...). I had one of these but unfortunately the parent’s comment about them being aerofoils is true: lost it to a gust in the Grand Canyon. It fell tantalizingly close to the fence, re-creating the “Let it go!” scene :-)
For those who want to try the fedora, I recommend the “Indiana Jones” look (https://herbertjohnson.co.uk/collections/indiana-jones-colle...). I had one of these but unfortunately the parent’s comment about them being aerofoils is true: lost it to a gust in the Grand Canyon. It fell tantalizingly close to the fence, re-creating the “Let it go!” scene :-)
This looks like it has been written by ChatGPT.
I’m far from bullish on meta long-term, but reporting like this would have you believe that nobody uses Facebook, and that Instagram is soon to share its fate. Optimists that they are, tech reporters overweight growth to absurd extremes. Maybe reporting on youth trends brings out the insecurities in all of us—you’d rather not look clueless in front of your two cool friends in their early 20s than the 2 billion or so Facebook MAUs.
TikTok is a platform with huge growth potential. IG is perceptibly declining. But Facebook has proven itself fairly durable, mostly to people outside tech and media bubbles. It’d be wise to not call it over just yet.
TikTok is a platform with huge growth potential. IG is perceptibly declining. But Facebook has proven itself fairly durable, mostly to people outside tech and media bubbles. It’d be wise to not call it over just yet.
It takes a second to open an app, become a MAU, and then close it in disinterest. I'll admit this is my relationship with Facebook. I never see anything on there I am remotely interested in. Just old relatives spewing nonsense. But I guess I count as one of those 2 billion MAUs. I wonder how many are in the same spot.
I’d bet a solid majority, like it is on any social platform. Most users don’t post or engage.
Biggest predictor for Facebook and IG use among my sample of friends is whether they’re married and have families, or in many cases, pets. In my sample, many own homes or property. Not where the growth is, but not worthless from a revenue standpoint.
Biggest predictor for Facebook and IG use among my sample of friends is whether they’re married and have families, or in many cases, pets. In my sample, many own homes or property. Not where the growth is, but not worthless from a revenue standpoint.
> Biggest predictor for Facebook and IG use among my sample of friends is whether they’re married and have families, or in many cases, pets.
Which way does the correlation go?
Which way does the correlation go?
Myself and other folks in my friend group are MAU in that we use FB about once a month, maybe once every two months. My IG use became the same after the recent feed changes. Using either platform now feels like work and I have enough work to do already.
You keep opening it though
Durable isn't a great word for what Facebook has become. It's been LinkedIn-ified - the entire notifications category is filled with useless recommendations and suggestions rather than meaningful updates from connections. And they still put notification dots up for it.
Even if there's an opt out option and I could 'filter that' I haven't seen anything else relevant in 1+ year.
That sounds like a bad experience, but it’s not universal. It’s challenging to understand a platform from our individual vantage points (without access to internal dashboards), particularly on a network with between 2–3 billion MAUs. And if your personal interests are elsewhere, and your generational cohort is underrepresented. I’m an ‘elder millennial’ who got Facebook when it was still only for edu domains, and I’ve grown older with the service. I just briefly checked in with mine and within the last 24 hours I can see at least a dozen updates (all with decent engagement) from family and friends, some distant and others close. Babies being born, kids doing kid stuff, holiday posts. Pretty typical, particularly at this time of year. All that is to say, it’s all a function of your real world network. If I were the age I was when I started using Facebook, I’d probably find it desolate and boring, too.
But I would say ‘fairly durable’ is an apt description of an 18 year old service still operating at its scale. Exciting, maybe less than it once was. But fairly durable, certainly.
But I would say ‘fairly durable’ is an apt description of an 18 year old service still operating at its scale. Exciting, maybe less than it once was. But fairly durable, certainly.
All of us tend to forget that each year there is a whole cohort of people getting a new phone and using fb, instagram, twitter, whatever for the first time.
Disagree on Facebook being enduring; agreed on TikTok.
The underlying thesis behind FB - that people want to connect with people that they know - is eroding.
The underlying thesis behind FB - that people want to connect with people that they know - is eroding.
Does it? Back in 2021 TikTok was averaging more hours of viewing per month than Youtube (in the US.)
On the topic of social media in decline, TikTok also appears to have peaked in content already.
Following people isn't that interesting since most content creators that hit it big are One Hit Wonders. After they hit that big growth spike, they either follow the herd with the latest dance or trend, or they keep doing the same thing that made em famous with slight variations.
How long can you milk the same dance routine by switching out which celebrity does the silly little dance?
There were a few interesting educational channels for a while, but most people just don't have that many interesting things to keep posting about at the rate which is expected of a platform like TikTok. Quality content takes time to produce.
TikTok really only has a few buckets of content types. Some examples include thirst traps from sex workers that are looking to promote their OnlyFans and cute animals doing cute things.
Instagram isn't that different. I mostly use the app to see cute pictures of people's pets and the occasional human picture.
Following people isn't that interesting since most content creators that hit it big are One Hit Wonders. After they hit that big growth spike, they either follow the herd with the latest dance or trend, or they keep doing the same thing that made em famous with slight variations.
How long can you milk the same dance routine by switching out which celebrity does the silly little dance?
There were a few interesting educational channels for a while, but most people just don't have that many interesting things to keep posting about at the rate which is expected of a platform like TikTok. Quality content takes time to produce.
TikTok really only has a few buckets of content types. Some examples include thirst traps from sex workers that are looking to promote their OnlyFans and cute animals doing cute things.
Instagram isn't that different. I mostly use the app to see cute pictures of people's pets and the occasional human picture.
You have to commend YouTube and Twitter's longevity as social networks.
YouTube has better and more content than ever. Twitter also has the best and most relevant content, provided you curate your feed. All the stuff happening on academic Twitter, for instance, is hard to find elsewhere.
Reddit also seems to be going down the path of irrelevancy. The content is increasingly mediocre and hivemind-ish.
YouTube has better and more content than ever. Twitter also has the best and most relevant content, provided you curate your feed. All the stuff happening on academic Twitter, for instance, is hard to find elsewhere.
Reddit also seems to be going down the path of irrelevancy. The content is increasingly mediocre and hivemind-ish.
> Reddit also seems to be going down the path of irrelevancy. The content is increasingly mediocre and hivemind-ish.
If you're just looking at the 'popular front page', sure, but there's a reason people now search Reddit from Google: there's value in a 'centralized hub' for communities versus Twitter's loosely coupled social graphs.
Reddit replaced all vBulletin-backed forums. You could argue Discord might usurp Reddit but Discord isn't searchable from the web and is logged in a terribly inconducive format.
I follow MMA, and the MMA reddit is the biggest forum for MMA on the English-speaking internet, especially for live events, there's no substitute, and I'm sure its like that with a lot of niches.
If you're just looking at the 'popular front page', sure, but there's a reason people now search Reddit from Google: there's value in a 'centralized hub' for communities versus Twitter's loosely coupled social graphs.
Reddit replaced all vBulletin-backed forums. You could argue Discord might usurp Reddit but Discord isn't searchable from the web and is logged in a terribly inconducive format.
I follow MMA, and the MMA reddit is the biggest forum for MMA on the English-speaking internet, especially for live events, there's no substitute, and I'm sure its like that with a lot of niches.
> Reddit also seems to be going down the path of irrelevancy.
Reddit's irrelevance is only a matter of time. They're jacking up the advertising and banning anything that offends the advertisers.
Consider also how imageboards managed to remain relevant to this day.
Reddit's irrelevance is only a matter of time. They're jacking up the advertising and banning anything that offends the advertisers.
Consider also how imageboards managed to remain relevant to this day.
Reddit always had a hive mind, it's just the hive mind no longer agrees with you so you think it's irrelevant?
Nope, frankly given how long reddit's been around and how it continues to gain in popularity I expect it will outlive everything on that list except for youtube. It's the webs default forum and there will always be a demand for a forum on the web.
Nope, frankly given how long reddit's been around and how it continues to gain in popularity I expect it will outlive everything on that list except for youtube. It's the webs default forum and there will always be a demand for a forum on the web.
YouTube has matured and now has professional YouTube-first content. The first time I was on YouTube it had every imaginable show (illegally) and that’s how they hit their incredible initial growth. Then it was amateurs for the next ten years doing silly stuff and now it’s quite a enjoyable platform for information and niche entertainment
Both Twitter and Reddit might be in decline. I know people keep on saying that some subset of those platform are still useful, but that doesn't attract eyeballs nor advertisement. Once the main page declines, the rest should follow. This is quickly accelerated if there is some alternative platform that provides a similar experience.
It is remarkable how hard it is for a business to simply last a decade. To do it at the scale of the incumbent apps is astounding to me.
While TikTok is growing quickly, we still don’t know its long term potential, how ‘sticky’ it is. I’d predict it has a trajectory more like Twitter and less like Snapchat. But it could well become a YouTube. All we can do is wait and find out.
While TikTok is growing quickly, we still don’t know its long term potential, how ‘sticky’ it is. I’d predict it has a trajectory more like Twitter and less like Snapchat. But it could well become a YouTube. All we can do is wait and find out.
TikTok has a creator fund that incentives and rewards their creators. It is much closer to YouTube than Twitter or Snapchat. And I’m pretty sure it’s DAUs are way greater than both of those as well.
I regretted the Twitter comparison as soon as I reread my comment. I was thinking in broader terms — apps where the bulk of users follow creators and not personal contacts tend to grow and sustain very differently. But it’s so obviously most similar to YouTube, from a user perspective, it’s an accelerated YouTube experience.
It's almost like these businesses don't actually provide any value (the users do, but the users aren't motivated to provide value, just motivated to drive engagement)
This just reminds me of music in the 50s/60s and radio (without the payola)
Some bands were one hit wonders, but some were able to transition to a career, usually help behind them - writers, producers, and everything else from the record label. Chubby Checker always makes me laugh with the song Let’s Twist Again.
Something similar happened with Youtube, I think. Especially with media for kids. Popular channels turned into a productions, but usually it was much slower.
TikTok will be like Youtube/Radio Hybrid. Some people will take their one hit wonder and transition to a career, but not without the help of something like a record label or production company.
And if there’s payola, it’s going to click farms.
Some bands were one hit wonders, but some were able to transition to a career, usually help behind them - writers, producers, and everything else from the record label. Chubby Checker always makes me laugh with the song Let’s Twist Again.
Something similar happened with Youtube, I think. Especially with media for kids. Popular channels turned into a productions, but usually it was much slower.
TikTok will be like Youtube/Radio Hybrid. Some people will take their one hit wonder and transition to a career, but not without the help of something like a record label or production company.
And if there’s payola, it’s going to click farms.
> Chubby Checker always makes me laugh with the song Let’s Twist Again.
Can you explain the joke? I don't get it.
Can you explain the joke? I don't get it.
The Twist was his first big hit.
Let’s Twist Again came out a year later. The entire song is referring to the phenomenon of The Twist.
“Let’s twist again, like we did last summer”
Also, it was a number one hit in some countries.
Let’s Twist Again came out a year later. The entire song is referring to the phenomenon of The Twist.
“Let’s twist again, like we did last summer”
Also, it was a number one hit in some countries.
I consider Tiktok content to be a sign of what the next generation has to offer. That frightens me.
I am surprised people expect these apps to remain popular for a long time. The internet has changed so much. I've watched social media apps come and go every few years and I personally think they are all short lived trends with maybe a few exceptions. They capture a young market first, who provide the value (photos, videos, memes) and then older generations start joining after the young market is captured. Then after five to 10 years, they age out, the fad is over. A new app captures the younger generation and the cycle repeats.
Some smaller social media networks have maybe kinda sorta survived more than one generation to some extent but it's debatable. Twitter seems like it has the most staying power so far but the present situation is evolving rapidly.
Some smaller social media networks have maybe kinda sorta survived more than one generation to some extent but it's debatable. Twitter seems like it has the most staying power so far but the present situation is evolving rapidly.
I'd actually keep using social apps more if they stayed closer to their original versions.
My Facebook feed turned from updates from my friends and family to garbage filled with politics, ads, suggested pages, and I stopped using it.
My Instagram feed turned from photos of my family and friends to garbage: again ads, recommended pages, later videos. Eventually I deleted it.
Twitter was close to that when they introduces algorithmic feed which showed stuff I didn't want to see and I was close to deleting the app, thankfully there's a way to still have the chronological feed without all the "likes" and "recommendations".
I keep using Reddit because I still can use it the same way as years ago - join communities that interest me and not see the stuff I don't want (even though they regularly push some more useless stuff to show me)
I believe social media can last long, but they need to find balance between monetization, innovation, and staying true to their users. Facebook and Instagram went way too far in alienating their users, and while they're still popular, they're declining.
My Facebook feed turned from updates from my friends and family to garbage filled with politics, ads, suggested pages, and I stopped using it.
My Instagram feed turned from photos of my family and friends to garbage: again ads, recommended pages, later videos. Eventually I deleted it.
Twitter was close to that when they introduces algorithmic feed which showed stuff I didn't want to see and I was close to deleting the app, thankfully there's a way to still have the chronological feed without all the "likes" and "recommendations".
I keep using Reddit because I still can use it the same way as years ago - join communities that interest me and not see the stuff I don't want (even though they regularly push some more useless stuff to show me)
I believe social media can last long, but they need to find balance between monetization, innovation, and staying true to their users. Facebook and Instagram went way too far in alienating their users, and while they're still popular, they're declining.
I’m surprised Reddit is even considered social media. The anonymity of the users and focus on subjects over people make it a very different experience. With Facebook and instagram you have a limited pool of people that interest each other and if they stop posting they have to figure out what to show you. That’s… really hard, especially if you signed up with these people in mind.
With Reddit meanwhile you can easily select the subjects you are interested in and there’s a bottomless pit of people who can post and comment on that. While it being mostly text based will probably limit how big it can get compared to something like TikTok I suspect there’s a better slow and steady business model with less churn.
I also really like that they offer a monthly sub at a fair price that removes the ad problem. I really wish more companies would take this sort of approach.
With Reddit meanwhile you can easily select the subjects you are interested in and there’s a bottomless pit of people who can post and comment on that. While it being mostly text based will probably limit how big it can get compared to something like TikTok I suspect there’s a better slow and steady business model with less churn.
I also really like that they offer a monthly sub at a fair price that removes the ad problem. I really wish more companies would take this sort of approach.
What you're saying is interesting. I think part of that is the tension between older and younger generations which is why I don't think these things last.
Reddit is kind of a notable standout. Maybe that and Twitter's features are what guarantees a sustained viewership. I don't know, this is all kind of new.
At least for photo and video sharing sites, it seems like these tend to be trendy and have a population boom and bust cycle. But then again I don't want to speak authoritatively. But looking at FB it reported it's first decline in daily visits this year and the decline among teens and younger generations is even more pronounced. Certainly looks like a population peak.
Reddit is kind of a notable standout. Maybe that and Twitter's features are what guarantees a sustained viewership. I don't know, this is all kind of new.
At least for photo and video sharing sites, it seems like these tend to be trendy and have a population boom and bust cycle. But then again I don't want to speak authoritatively. But looking at FB it reported it's first decline in daily visits this year and the decline among teens and younger generations is even more pronounced. Certainly looks like a population peak.
Reddit tried to kill itself with the new ad optimized UI but saved itself by continuing to let users use the old UI.
The desire to "grow", and the lack of a defined end state for that growth, is the problem. It's not hard to build a social media service that pays for itself and then some, but they all are run by greedy people and so they want more money all the time. These people have no notion of "enough money". That's the fundamental problem behind all social media services going to shit.
The fediverse won't be like that though.
The fediverse won't be like that though.
Time will tell what happens with the fediverse, collapsing under the weight of moderation sounds like a probable scenario to me.
I mean I think the people who predicted they would remain popular for a long time were actually right? They may stop accelerating but they are still as popular as ever.
YouTube is the second visited site in the US and FB is the third - and they've been at the top for over a decade. E-mail is not a social network but has stuck around for 20 years. I've used Reddit since 2010. I've been on Instagram for six years now and probably use it more now than I ever have. Even Snapchat which to me seemed like a fad - is massively popular among teens.
I think it is true there are lots of smaller sites like Vine or Digg or YikYak which peter out but it seems like if you hit the critical mass then you can maintain popularity for decades.
YouTube is the second visited site in the US and FB is the third - and they've been at the top for over a decade. E-mail is not a social network but has stuck around for 20 years. I've used Reddit since 2010. I've been on Instagram for six years now and probably use it more now than I ever have. Even Snapchat which to me seemed like a fad - is massively popular among teens.
I think it is true there are lots of smaller sites like Vine or Digg or YikYak which peter out but it seems like if you hit the critical mass then you can maintain popularity for decades.
YouTube likely has staying power despite of what the company are doing with the UI and user experience flows, because it sure as hell can't be because of it. And at least their search is not trying to actively work against the user. (Their recommendation engine is a dumpster fire, for sure.)
A mostly usable, generally accessible, and fairly easily discoverable video hosting platform. I can think of a lot of worse product pitches.
A mostly usable, generally accessible, and fairly easily discoverable video hosting platform. I can think of a lot of worse product pitches.
I also have seen and beleive this is an accurate picture of how these things go. But I'd ask, what about pseudo- social network apps like airbnb? They have a minimal social aspect, but to me app like that will have a longer possible lifetime. I guess even in airbnb's case there are competitors encroaching and stealing market share...
“In other words, Instagram is giving us the ick: that feeling when a romantic partner or crush does something small but noticeable—like wearing a fedora—that immediately turns you off forever”
This was so ridiculously judgmental that I couldn’t keep reading.
This was so ridiculously judgmental that I couldn’t keep reading.
If it makes you feel any better, it's not the hat's fault.
found the fedora-wearer
Instagram is doing just fine at the job it morphed into. A high end escort advertising board.
A 20yo guy cannot afford to spend $5K a day for a beautiful girl that has posted scantly clad pics exactly for this purpose. They are not the market. The market is middle age wealthy men and the women they pay for their "time." Then the women they pay go back to Instagram to find things to buy for "bragging rights" which satisfies the advertisers.
A 20yo guy cannot afford to spend $5K a day for a beautiful girl that has posted scantly clad pics exactly for this purpose. They are not the market. The market is middle age wealthy men and the women they pay for their "time." Then the women they pay go back to Instagram to find things to buy for "bragging rights" which satisfies the advertisers.
Maybe I'm ignorant of what TikTok is but it seems to be mostly about video sharing and less about "social networking" with friends and family??
I also think TikTok has serious risks going forward re Chinese government. Already a lot of grumbling from lawmakers in US about banning it as CCP growing more belligerent in recent years whereas Facebook products aren't at all influenced by it.
I also think TikTok has serious risks going forward re Chinese government. Already a lot of grumbling from lawmakers in US about banning it as CCP growing more belligerent in recent years whereas Facebook products aren't at all influenced by it.
Tiktok is short addictive videos from randos.
Youtube is long addictive videos.
Instagram and facebook is still primarily focused on content from people you know, though they are also trying to copy some of TikTok’s randos content via the Reels feature.
At the end of the day they just want to get attention by giving content, whether using friends or essentially crowdsourcing.
I prefer Netflix, because I’m paying them and they are not just manipulating me to show ads.
Youtube is long addictive videos.
Instagram and facebook is still primarily focused on content from people you know, though they are also trying to copy some of TikTok’s randos content via the Reels feature.
At the end of the day they just want to get attention by giving content, whether using friends or essentially crowdsourcing.
I prefer Netflix, because I’m paying them and they are not just manipulating me to show ads.
This reminds me of a related article discussed earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32482523
The Three Trends:
1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR
2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate
3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay
TikTok is at the video/recommend/swipe stage.
The Three Trends:
1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR
2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate
3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay
TikTok is at the video/recommend/swipe stage.
Autoplaying VR porn generated on-demand to perfectly match each visitor's preferences.
Yeah, that sounds like it would become popular very quickly.
Yeah, that sounds like it would become popular very quickly.
The trend in social media for years has been away from social and toward just addictive content and finding the best way to crowdsource that content. The purpose is becoming simply to get you to spend as much time as possible staring at the phone to sell ads, and nothing more.
I predict the next advancement will be pure AI generated content, just a continuous adversarial attack on the human brain programmed to maximize viewing time for each individual. This could be packaged as things like virtual friends (Replika) or games with constantly evolving game play punctuated with ads or even as something that looks like TikTok.
Pure refined 200 proof addictive emptiness is the logical apex of “free” mass media. We will look back on TV and early generation social media as high culture compared to what’s coming.
I predict the next advancement will be pure AI generated content, just a continuous adversarial attack on the human brain programmed to maximize viewing time for each individual. This could be packaged as things like virtual friends (Replika) or games with constantly evolving game play punctuated with ads or even as something that looks like TikTok.
Pure refined 200 proof addictive emptiness is the logical apex of “free” mass media. We will look back on TV and early generation social media as high culture compared to what’s coming.
I think we're seeing a pendulum swing in some ways. The migration to Mastodon has been really exciting because servers are funded through Patreon, not eyeballs.
Communities are smaller and content is higher quality, without pressuring you to post content you think will get the most likes. It's like an actual social media platform, not what so many others have become.
Facebook was never really about social. They just stumbled upon the realization that commenting on friends’ stuffs and looking at some of it was addicting. That’s why there was backlash against it because people realized Facebook wasn’t really working to help us improve our social relationships in any way but merely using it to steal our attention, much to our detriment (waste time).
Eventually AI was developed to automate addictive content which is just a more generalized solution yo what FB was doing.
Eventually AI was developed to automate addictive content which is just a more generalized solution yo what FB was doing.
> I prefer Netflix, because I’m paying them and they are not just manipulating me to show ads
Sorry to break it to you but Netflix is absolutely manipulating their audience in trying to convince everyone to watch Netflix productions.
When Netflix came into the market they had a unique platform and were burning money to get good content in. Now studios realized there is money in streaming and are squeezing Netflix prices.
Making their own productions means it is all vertical for them, less risk and more profitable.
By the end of it you're stuck watching something, just not exactly what you wanted in the first place.
Sorry to break it to you but Netflix is absolutely manipulating their audience in trying to convince everyone to watch Netflix productions.
When Netflix came into the market they had a unique platform and were burning money to get good content in. Now studios realized there is money in streaming and are squeezing Netflix prices.
Making their own productions means it is all vertical for them, less risk and more profitable.
By the end of it you're stuck watching something, just not exactly what you wanted in the first place.
I don’t understand. What I see on Netflix I either want to watch or not. What does it matter if it is a Netflix production or not? My point is more that I’d rather watch more long form thoughtfully crafted content than short dopamine hits designed to hook me for the purpose of showing ads in between.
In my eyes, TikTok is a social entertainment app where simple user-generated content is created with the purpose to provide enjoyment. It's not focused on the needs of other users, but entirely about one's own needs. Hence, I call this new version of social Eigensocial.
In a very broad sense, I'm glad to see things like this happening; I think a (relatively) high rate of turnover in social media is probably orders of magnitude better and safer than "one app to rule them all, forever."
It additionally makes me bullish on federated deals like Activitypub/Mastodon.
It's funny that the above presently tend to be "lefty-crunchy-hippie" -- because, I think if corporations get it through their hiveminds that the above enables them to have their own "official source of truth," thus preventing doofiness like blue check marks, this would all take off in a beneficial way.
It additionally makes me bullish on federated deals like Activitypub/Mastodon.
It's funny that the above presently tend to be "lefty-crunchy-hippie" -- because, I think if corporations get it through their hiveminds that the above enables them to have their own "official source of truth," thus preventing doofiness like blue check marks, this would all take off in a beneficial way.
They keep starting out with a free service then they focus on turning it into a paid service... In Instagram's case, just like with Twitter and even TikTok now, they charge users for visibility, or they trickle it out just enough to make users constantly and feverishly ask what they're doing wrong. It's mental manipulation that just doesn't work, and the paid advertising format leads platforms to their death, but just like users keep posting, investors are flocking to put money onto the next social media platform.
I hope that independent web communities return, and that people start making their own web sites, tracking music and entertainment across multiple platforms and dealing with their content payola schemes and repetitive marketing is ruining everything fun and useful about the Internet.
I hope that independent web communities return, and that people start making their own web sites, tracking music and entertainment across multiple platforms and dealing with their content payola schemes and repetitive marketing is ruining everything fun and useful about the Internet.
It's because these apps are longer social in the original sense of social media. Most of my family's sharing of what would have been Instagram or Facebook posts are now in a WhatsApp group I admin. Sure I would have loved to get everyone onto Signal instead but the end result has been much better experience for us.
Group chats are wonderful for two very basic, core reasons: chronological and no ads.
And for larger groups Discord is not horrible alternative. Just need to give up on tracking everything, but it is very good platform to share and momentarily discuss interesting things.
They moved on from Facebook being over to Instagram being over lol.
Instagram isn't over. It's still the most popular social media app on both App Store and Google Play in the US.
For the past couple of years you always see articles popping up about Facebook being dead, then you look at the actual data and people are using Facebook more than ever.
Look at the last report from Meta, more people on a daily and monthly basis are using Facebook and Instagram than ever both.
Nearly 3b people use their apps on the daily basis. It going to take on hell of a long time before they become over.
Instagram isn't over. It's still the most popular social media app on both App Store and Google Play in the US.
For the past couple of years you always see articles popping up about Facebook being dead, then you look at the actual data and people are using Facebook more than ever.
Look at the last report from Meta, more people on a daily and monthly basis are using Facebook and Instagram than ever both.
Nearly 3b people use their apps on the daily basis. It going to take on hell of a long time before they become over.
> Look at the last report from Meta, more people on a daily and monthly basis are using Facebook and Instagram than ever both.
It's more nuanced than that.
If you're losing traction where it matters - in younger generations & high-value markets like the US that have higher future cash flows - it doesn't matter if you're making up for it with usage from old people or people in poor countries without good advertising infra.
Facebook is definitely not looking rosy for the future.
And Instagram seems like it's on a similar path to Facebook 4 or 5 years ago. It doesn't look bad, but it also doesn't look great...
It's more nuanced than that.
If you're losing traction where it matters - in younger generations & high-value markets like the US that have higher future cash flows - it doesn't matter if you're making up for it with usage from old people or people in poor countries without good advertising infra.
Facebook is definitely not looking rosy for the future.
And Instagram seems like it's on a similar path to Facebook 4 or 5 years ago. It doesn't look bad, but it also doesn't look great...
> in younger generations & high-value markets like the US that have higher future cash flows
People in their 30s and 40s earn more money than college students and new grads in their 20s, and they are spending that money right now. Facebook groups for home decorating, design, cars, fitness, parenting, all of those are really popular. You can go on Facebook and find a large community dedicated to literally any style of home decor you can imagine, and those people are quite willing to spend money.
Same with the parenting groups. DINKs don't spend money at anything near the rate parents do. DINKs have higher free cash flow, but that is because they have free cash, parents are buying stuff all the time.
Honestly, 5 years ago I barely used Facebook, now that I am older I am using it a lot more.
Also, with that entire population decline thing, each new generation is, at best, the same size as the generation that came before it. If constant double digit growth is desired, sure, need to get that next generation on board, but at some point Facebook may have to be happy with "just" earning hard to imagine amounts of money each year and only seeing single digit growth in revenue.
People in their 30s and 40s earn more money than college students and new grads in their 20s, and they are spending that money right now. Facebook groups for home decorating, design, cars, fitness, parenting, all of those are really popular. You can go on Facebook and find a large community dedicated to literally any style of home decor you can imagine, and those people are quite willing to spend money.
Same with the parenting groups. DINKs don't spend money at anything near the rate parents do. DINKs have higher free cash flow, but that is because they have free cash, parents are buying stuff all the time.
Honestly, 5 years ago I barely used Facebook, now that I am older I am using it a lot more.
Also, with that entire population decline thing, each new generation is, at best, the same size as the generation that came before it. If constant double digit growth is desired, sure, need to get that next generation on board, but at some point Facebook may have to be happy with "just" earning hard to imagine amounts of money each year and only seeing single digit growth in revenue.
>but at some point Facebook may have to be happy with "just"
This isn't a Facebook problem, this is a late stage capitalism problem that risks causing our current economies to collapse to the ground.
This isn't a Facebook problem, this is a late stage capitalism problem that risks causing our current economies to collapse to the ground.
Companies change over to paying dividends and become boring instead of insane growth companies.
Makes recruiting harder.
Makes recruiting harder.
I went on Instagram for the first time in a few years yesterday. None of my friends post anymore and it’s all ads or sponcon.
Group chats have been slowly growing for the last decade, and now have become completely dominant. I wonder how much of it is fear of cancellation leading to defaulting to private communication.
Group chats have been slowly growing for the last decade, and now have become completely dominant. I wonder how much of it is fear of cancellation leading to defaulting to private communication.
I had my account banned this year after logging in for a long while and told I looked too much like a bot. The only way to try to get access again was to upload a 'video selfie' at multiple angles, but no way would I want to help that facial algorithm any more than necessary. Good riddance.
Gonna say between my three daughters and their huge network of friends and family I can’t see “insta” fading away anytime soon… maybe as an investor we could say expected growth is going to slow due to market saturation or something but “insta” is here to stay from what I can see
I like how HN crowd falls all over for an article that caters to what they want to believe.
Where is Anecdotal vs Actual Usage Data rage?
Ah, that's right, it doesn't fit their narrative. So, everyone is happy to Fox-News this.
Where is Anecdotal vs Actual Usage Data rage?
Ah, that's right, it doesn't fit their narrative. So, everyone is happy to Fox-News this.
Social products all have a lifetime value and it’s incredibly short. The same thing will also happen to TikTok one day. I suspect we will learn in the coming decades that social media companies are very profitable in the short term, but not so in the long term, say 20 years, unless the keep introducing new viral social products.
I think this is a lazy conclusion and needs more depth. What’s huge - seismic really - is that people actually prefer to know more about strangers than friends. On average, these strangers tend to be personalities and as a result are more entertaining / interesting / provocative than my typical friend. Combine this with the average person posting less about their life and you end up with a serious problem.
Twitter first rode this trend, but TikTok really exploited it specifically with the medium of video and their algorithm to serve content.
Networks effects were once seen as the ultimate moat and one reason why FB could never be taken down. But it turns out if the content people “trade” on their “marketplace” is poor, all the network effects in the world won’t save you.
Twitter first rode this trend, but TikTok really exploited it specifically with the medium of video and their algorithm to serve content.
Networks effects were once seen as the ultimate moat and one reason why FB could never be taken down. But it turns out if the content people “trade” on their “marketplace” is poor, all the network effects in the world won’t save you.
What you are describing is the broadcast model. Instagram is moving towards that model to compete with TikTok but that is exactly why people stopped using it because it’s no longer the Instagram they were using.
Influencers (aka personalities) are only entertaining for a short period of time. They have constantly churn out new content to keep engaging users. It is because user don’t know them and are less attached.
Therefore as long as TikTok has influencers that can continue to make new content, it will keep attracting new users. But I suspect that this is also not long term sustainable. People, both influencers and users, will get burned out eventually.
Your argument that network model dies because of broadcast model is just one part. My argument still stands that eventually people will get tired of a social media product and move on to the next ones.
Not sure how my observations are lazy though considering your does not provide anymore insight that others didn’t already know… it’s already been reported on Rolling Stone, Venture Beat, etc back in July. Aren’t you just regurgitating their idea with offhand keywords?
Influencers (aka personalities) are only entertaining for a short period of time. They have constantly churn out new content to keep engaging users. It is because user don’t know them and are less attached.
Therefore as long as TikTok has influencers that can continue to make new content, it will keep attracting new users. But I suspect that this is also not long term sustainable. People, both influencers and users, will get burned out eventually.
Your argument that network model dies because of broadcast model is just one part. My argument still stands that eventually people will get tired of a social media product and move on to the next ones.
Not sure how my observations are lazy though considering your does not provide anymore insight that others didn’t already know… it’s already been reported on Rolling Stone, Venture Beat, etc back in July. Aren’t you just regurgitating their idea with offhand keywords?
I take that back the "lazy" comment - my mistake. In my defense, I haven't read those articles and came up with these ideas on my own.
Agreed re broadcast model - that's an important distinction too vs the classic follower model. This is why, despite my best efforts, I still see content from strangers on my twitter feed. They know it drives engagement.
> People, both influencers and users, will get burned out eventually.
I disagree - because the space here is endless. Influencers will churn out and users will move on to the next one. I don't think users will get burned out - their tastes will evolve. Each phase of life has its own content pool. I'll describe my own journey here: I got married this past year. In the lead up to that, there were tons of wedding planning videos. Now I get served a lot of married couple w/no kids content. That'll probably keep changing as I move through life.
Agreed re broadcast model - that's an important distinction too vs the classic follower model. This is why, despite my best efforts, I still see content from strangers on my twitter feed. They know it drives engagement.
> People, both influencers and users, will get burned out eventually.
I disagree - because the space here is endless. Influencers will churn out and users will move on to the next one. I don't think users will get burned out - their tastes will evolve. Each phase of life has its own content pool. I'll describe my own journey here: I got married this past year. In the lead up to that, there were tons of wedding planning videos. Now I get served a lot of married couple w/no kids content. That'll probably keep changing as I move through life.
> I got married this past year. In the lead up to that, there were tons of wedding planning videos. Now I get served a lot of married couple w/no kids content. That'll probably keep changing as I move through life.
This is an interesting observation. You are arguing that your taste for content will change preventing you from getting tired of the product.
My argument is more along the lines of the medium. People get bored of photos because it’s old and so they move on to short videos.
Both are non-conflicting. I do see how your argument will prolong the lifecycle of the product.
This is an interesting observation. You are arguing that your taste for content will change preventing you from getting tired of the product.
My argument is more along the lines of the medium. People get bored of photos because it’s old and so they move on to short videos.
Both are non-conflicting. I do see how your argument will prolong the lifecycle of the product.
That's possible - video is definitely more enticing than photos and there's data out there to back that up among the general population. Perhaps people will get bored of videos one day - we'll see.
Why bother building a network when the whole world can be your network.
This is a problem for commercial social media companies. Companies need to make profit to operate, and once they stop being able to show growth then investments start to dry up. There is also no clear revenue model aside from ads and mining of user data.
The situation is quite different in open source world. The only factors that matter for an open source platform are having enough people who are willing to develop it, run servers, and post content. Once the platform reaches enough users to be sustainable then it can exist indefinitely without need for growth or any significant funding.
We can look at Mastodon as a case study. It builds on top of all the work done by GNU Social and the OStatus protocol. GNU Social languished in obscurity for many years, but Mastodon was able to build on this work and create a much larger social network. Now, there's a whole federation of different platforms using ActivityPub protocol that grew out of OStatus. Fediverse will likely outlive every single commercial social media platform in existence today.
The situation is quite different in open source world. The only factors that matter for an open source platform are having enough people who are willing to develop it, run servers, and post content. Once the platform reaches enough users to be sustainable then it can exist indefinitely without need for growth or any significant funding.
We can look at Mastodon as a case study. It builds on top of all the work done by GNU Social and the OStatus protocol. GNU Social languished in obscurity for many years, but Mastodon was able to build on this work and create a much larger social network. Now, there's a whole federation of different platforms using ActivityPub protocol that grew out of OStatus. Fediverse will likely outlive every single commercial social media platform in existence today.
I think it's the opposite: lifetimes for well-established social products are getting longer. People left digg for reddit because of a redesign, people stay on Twitter despite an ideologic shift from left to right! Nerds switch platforms over minor perceived slights and switch Linux distributions over license-philosophies or systemd-controversies; normies stay with the herd, with the audience, with the likes and clicks.
It would be interesting to see a major player in the space really embracing the fashion and seasonality of their products and succeeding with that strategy.
Like the CPG, dating, porn, gaming, and clothing industries?
Some categories of brands can be long lived. Coca Cola and Disney.
Some categories of brands are mayflies. Pop music, TV, fast fashion.
My hunch is the average lifecycle of social media brands and MMORPG properties are roughly the same. Say 5-10 years?
Some categories of brands can be long lived. Coca Cola and Disney.
Some categories of brands are mayflies. Pop music, TV, fast fashion.
My hunch is the average lifecycle of social media brands and MMORPG properties are roughly the same. Say 5-10 years?
WOW would like to have a word.
WoW is the outlier that destroyed the genre. Looking at games released after it isn't pretty picture. Those before it fare better.
Mosdef. Ravelry and metafilter are my go to examples of outliers. By what magic are they sustaining themselves?
Eldest son (17) and all his mates use it - very rarely do they post publicly, it's purely for messaging. I've never been sure why, there's plenty enough alternatives, but that's how it is for him and his cohort.
It’s used heavily in dating these days. We use instagram as a messenger because that’s what everyone has and it’s socially easier to ask a new person for the instagram rather than their phone number.
Its predictable and not entirely private like a close friend group chat on iMessage or WhatsApp. Plus of course the way it integrates with feeds of photo/videos you’re already looking at casually.
The same way FB used to be.
Its predictable and not entirely private like a close friend group chat on iMessage or WhatsApp. Plus of course the way it integrates with feeds of photo/videos you’re already looking at casually.
The same way FB used to be.
If data plans weren't tied to them, Gen Z probably wouldn't have phone numbers at all anymore. (Well, at least in those parts of the world where a data reception no slower than 3G is ubiquitous.)
If you think about it, the whole concept really does stick out nowadays. The idea of this unique, static (or at least not easily changeable), non-descript identifier tied only to you and your physical device is very much a product of its time.
Phone numbers only continue to exist by momentum – if a similar thing were to be implemented today, it would never catch on so universally.
If you think about it, the whole concept really does stick out nowadays. The idea of this unique, static (or at least not easily changeable), non-descript identifier tied only to you and your physical device is very much a product of its time.
Phone numbers only continue to exist by momentum – if a similar thing were to be implemented today, it would never catch on so universally.
I’m pretty sure your son and his mates all have finstas and post a lot - you are just not seeing it (source: having two teenage daughters)
Not OP, but going by pesonal experience way back in days of original facebook days a lot of people never posted that much and mainly consumed as soon as it was possible.
Even before that on forums etc. there were many more lurkers than posters.
17 year old me didn't wanted to be compared to all the others "perfect" lives.
Maybe I'm naive but I bet that hasn't fundamentally changed.
Even before that on forums etc. there were many more lurkers than posters.
17 year old me didn't wanted to be compared to all the others "perfect" lives.
Maybe I'm naive but I bet that hasn't fundamentally changed.
As an avid photographer I thought Instagram would be a good place to share my work but was amazed to find just how photo-hostile it is: I loathe the forced 4:5 portrait aspect ratio and I die inside every time it ignores the embedded ICC profile and my colors get warped slightly after I post.
I loathe reels and the recommended posts but their recent addition a mode for only viewing people you follow has more or less solved the other problems; I just wish they'd put a bit more of effort into the basic functionality.
I loathe reels and the recommended posts but their recent addition a mode for only viewing people you follow has more or less solved the other problems; I just wish they'd put a bit more of effort into the basic functionality.
Instagram used to be about seeing what my friends were up to; now it’s all my friends resharing made-for-IG takes and re-re-re-re-re-sharing group photos I’ve already seen seven times.
I want an “OC Only” toggle.
Edit: And the above was referring only to Stories. I haven’t looked at the feed regularly in over a year.
I want an “OC Only” toggle.
Edit: And the above was referring only to Stories. I haven’t looked at the feed regularly in over a year.
I hope not. I use it as a way to save my moments with my family, in the expectation that It will survive some good years, and therefore my kids can then watch the pics, videos, comments and get a better picture (pun intended) of the context of the photos. Much better than have it in a disk (if its survive) or printed.
This situation is increasingly a concern for me too, and I think replication and shared data ownership is the solution.
Like everyone you care about having a copy of your data, and the copy always being up to date, perhaps encrypted so only those family you want to consume the content have access to those pictures too via user control.
Anyhow it's sad that Facebook has so much of my family's lives hostage... Only there can I see what's up.
I wish I could see a 'family' feed.
Like everyone you care about having a copy of your data, and the copy always being up to date, perhaps encrypted so only those family you want to consume the content have access to those pictures too via user control.
Anyhow it's sad that Facebook has so much of my family's lives hostage... Only there can I see what's up.
I wish I could see a 'family' feed.
> Anyhow it's sad that Facebook has so much of my family's lives hostage... Only there can I see what's up.
I'm not the social media kind of people, but I have some friends and family members, that my last words were through facebook. So as a communication tool, I see its value. Said that, I don't have the app installed anywhere. Just messages notifications via email.
I'm not the social media kind of people, but I have some friends and family members, that my last words were through facebook. So as a communication tool, I see its value. Said that, I don't have the app installed anywhere. Just messages notifications via email.
If you don't care at all about popular figures and just want to share content with people you actually know, https://movim.eu would be a much better alternative.
Yes, well i just have it private, i just have the real close friends and family.. thats my message in a bottle to the future.. I hope it reaches the shore, someday.
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Instagram has functionality to download all of your content, including archived stories.
> Casey Lewis, a youth-culture consultant who writes the youth-culture newsletter After School, told me over email. “They don’t want to be on it, but they feel it’s weird if they’re not.
A "youth-culture consultant" trying to predict the future? How scientific
Since this whole article is just one big hot take, here's another hot take: eponymous social media as a whole is on the way out. The only stuff anyone can put on eponymous social media is personal brand stuff (think LinkedIn), never anything actually genuine
It's impossible for people to have real engagements under eponymous social media because anything they can say could be turned against them
IG is predominantly just marketing, whether it's people showing off (like LinkedIn), pages trying to build a following with e.g. pet videos so they can make money from ads, annoying influencer "content", or actual overt ads
A "youth-culture consultant" trying to predict the future? How scientific
Since this whole article is just one big hot take, here's another hot take: eponymous social media as a whole is on the way out. The only stuff anyone can put on eponymous social media is personal brand stuff (think LinkedIn), never anything actually genuine
It's impossible for people to have real engagements under eponymous social media because anything they can say could be turned against them
IG is predominantly just marketing, whether it's people showing off (like LinkedIn), pages trying to build a following with e.g. pet videos so they can make money from ads, annoying influencer "content", or actual overt ads
I think the key to a massively successful new social network will be a fallback API of just email/text.
Why not let your shiny new social network UI parse any dumb input into a fancy thread format? Zero adoption friction. Federation baked in.
Example: You run a mastodon-like service that can receive email. When it gets an email, it publishes a twirt with the contents. Truncates as needed.
If it's a new email address, spin up new user with email username. No password needed, cause it came from the email address you own.
Conversely, in the fancy interface, you can @[email protected] and it will email them for you. Doesn't matter if they've "joined twartordon." So it has a dumb-simple user growth model baked in.
I've been promoting this idea for years in the man-yells-at-clouds format, but folks don't seem to get why it's so powerful...
Why not let your shiny new social network UI parse any dumb input into a fancy thread format? Zero adoption friction. Federation baked in.
Example: You run a mastodon-like service that can receive email. When it gets an email, it publishes a twirt with the contents. Truncates as needed.
If it's a new email address, spin up new user with email username. No password needed, cause it came from the email address you own.
Conversely, in the fancy interface, you can @[email protected] and it will email them for you. Doesn't matter if they've "joined twartordon." So it has a dumb-simple user growth model baked in.
I've been promoting this idea for years in the man-yells-at-clouds format, but folks don't seem to get why it's so powerful...
SMS is how I used to use Twitter, back in 2008 or so. You could text 40404 with your tweet, and you could receive Tweets from that number too. It was great in that era before I had a smartphone, and it felt like something halfway between a group chat and microblogging. I miss that mode of interaction.
Have you ever ran a mail server?
When you're blocking 99.93% of incoming messages as spam you'll learn to be more selective.
When you're blocking 99.93% of incoming messages as spam you'll learn to be more selective.
I stopped posting photos on Instagram. It takes a lot of effort to compose a good shot, process the RAWs and upload them. The interaction rate has gone down considerably. A decade ago, people genuinely commented on photos and provided feedbacks. Like counts has gone down as well. It feels discouraging to post photos with such less of a interaction and feedback. I don't care about the likes, but the platform that originally built to share photos no longer values them. Photos are replaced with stories, reels and ads. The influencers are pushing all sort of crap that gets boosted by the algorithm.
"To scroll through Instagram today is to parse a series of sponsored posts from brands, recommended Reels from people you don’t follow, and the occasional picture from a friend that’s finally surfaced."
I have two Instagram accounts: one that only follows friends and family. Another that follows brands, influencers, and such. It completely fixed my Instagram experience. I can choose the (low volume) social network of friends, or endless scrolling and discovery. Never do they intermix. The friends-only feed is so low traffic, I never get sucked into sponsored or suggested posts. Highly recommend.
I have two Instagram accounts: one that only follows friends and family. Another that follows brands, influencers, and such. It completely fixed my Instagram experience. I can choose the (low volume) social network of friends, or endless scrolling and discovery. Never do they intermix. The friends-only feed is so low traffic, I never get sucked into sponsored or suggested posts. Highly recommend.
When the percentage of ads (sponsored posts/stories) is higher than the content you want to see, it becomes a pain to actually use the app, and you slowly use it less and less until you stop using it alltogether.
This is one of the biggest jibes I have ever read, given that Meta's MAU is the highest of all time (2.9b, if I remember correctly)
Instagram it's not over, and I bet will win the battle against TikTok
Instagram it's not over, and I bet will win the battle against TikTok
MAU doesn't mean much if they are losing users in primary markets and new users are from places where the ads don't pay.
Jibe?
Jibe
(verb): change course by swinging a fore-and-aft sail across a following wind.
(noun): an act or instance of jibing.
GP believes that the Atlantic article constitutes an instance of changing course by swinging a sail across a following wind, presumably metaphorically.
(verb): change course by swinging a fore-and-aft sail across a following wind.
(noun): an act or instance of jibing.
GP believes that the Atlantic article constitutes an instance of changing course by swinging a sail across a following wind, presumably metaphorically.
I don't know if IG is dead, but that Reels nonsense was an absolute fiasco. They kept showing me reels that were nonsensical and were only designed to lead engagement stats from questions of "what is the person trying to do here". Not to mention, the comments on many of these useless vids were always in Turkish. I don't speak Turkish, I've never been to Turkey, yet comments on videos were always in Turkish.
I know plenty of friends who can spend hours on reels everyday, my SO is an example, but most of my female friends are the same.
I understand that modern IG may not be the greatest, but engagement wise their choices, at least for the 25+ tier, have paid off imho.
I understand that modern IG may not be the greatest, but engagement wise their choices, at least for the 25+ tier, have paid off imho.
Yeah, I can attest to that. I've went from barely using Instagram to spending a lot of time on it.
I get the baffling Turkish videos too. It’s a shame, instagram used to show me landscape architecture photos that I was genuinely interested in. And it doesn’t matter how much I flag it as not interesting, the random videos never stop.
I get a lot of Turkish construction videos, and even more strangely, a lot of Turkish bus driver videos. No idea how I ended up in that cohort ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I clicked on some sort of Turkish meat sandwich video once and now get at least a handful of videos showing the same sandwich being made a week.
I don't think it's a fiasco. I think Reels are better than TikTok.
My anecdata is that all IG is really used for anymore is messaging due to inertia and cross-posting content from other platforms. Very little original user generated content.
Fundamentally, these old apps that are built on the "create an account and manually follow users" model cannot compete with TikTok right now, and I don't think they'll be able to change to be competitive with TikTok in the future.
Fundamentally, these old apps that are built on the "create an account and manually follow users" model cannot compete with TikTok right now, and I don't think they'll be able to change to be competitive with TikTok in the future.
Instagram as a social network sucks but I like sharing my photos with people who are already my friends (private account), and seeing their photos too.
In my German circles, that spot has been covered by whatsapp for a long while now. It never has been instagram or anything else really. For me it went from studivz (long defunct German "facebook" for university students, didn't last long), via facebook (for a short while, and due to lack of alternatives) straight to whatsapp, and has stayed there ever since, with the exception of some photography interested people sharing larger sets of photos on flickr at times, and some dating/sexting happening on snap (but most of that still was/is on whatsapp). Instagram was always understood as a place where you go if you want to see celebs, influencers and the "wannabes".
Granted, I am a bit older, a millennial (as much as it hurts me to admit) and an older one at that, but I regularly take the tram in my city at times when all the teenagers are going to school or coming from school, and you can see a damn lot of whatsapp on all those phone screens, a lot of tiktok, and a good amount of discord.
Granted, I am a bit older, a millennial (as much as it hurts me to admit) and an older one at that, but I regularly take the tram in my city at times when all the teenagers are going to school or coming from school, and you can see a damn lot of whatsapp on all those phone screens, a lot of tiktok, and a good amount of discord.
my close friends and family have moved to the app Locket for sharing photos. much more direct and less "social" features (likes, follows, reels) that i don't care about.
Instagram is "transitional" technology. It peaked at a time when traditional social networks had started their slow decline, and things like Snapchat and TikTok were gaining some popularity. These days it's a bit too open for traditional users, and a bit too boring for the average TikTok user. It will always fill a niche, but it will inevitably shrink by at least an order of magnitude.
Honestly I never understood the appeal.
A social network that forces you to wedge your content in images and short videos, while on Facebook you could share YouTube videos, music, interesting links, write-ups, you name it. How can anyone in their right mind prefer something as limiting as Instagram? Even its instant messenger is limited compared to Facebook's.
A social network that forces you to wedge your content in images and short videos, while on Facebook you could share YouTube videos, music, interesting links, write-ups, you name it. How can anyone in their right mind prefer something as limiting as Instagram? Even its instant messenger is limited compared to Facebook's.
The simplification is (was) part of the appeal. It felt clean and refreshing to mostly look at pretty photos with minimal text. And it was a much more positive space. Photos of vacations, food, clothes, pets, friends. No political fighting or conspiracy theories or bitching about an ex. The comment space, a usual cesspool of unmitigated negativity and cruelty, was conveniently tucked away.
I miss the pre-pandemic Instagram. Now, it feels like it's transformed into a more general-purpose, Facebook-like social network. Which I guess should have been predictable!
I miss the pre-pandemic Instagram. Now, it feels like it's transformed into a more general-purpose, Facebook-like social network. Which I guess should have been predictable!
Instagram's formats feel nicer for getting updates from friends and family. No rants, just happy photos against usually a nice background.
Performative or commercial accounts make the experience worse though, and from what I understand these are being prioritized in the timeline.
Performative or commercial accounts make the experience worse though, and from what I understand these are being prioritized in the timeline.
People said the same thing about Twitter with its original 140 character limit. Just easily-consumable content you can scroll through. I enjoy the artwork I find on there. If I want YouTube links, music videos, news articles, etc I'll hit up Reddit.
The Atlantic is more over than IG
And yet, here we are commenting on an Atlantic article and not an Instagram post.
unlike most digital apps The Atlantic has been around for almost 170 years. Based on that fact alone I'd give it a good shot to outlive not one but the next five to ten successors of IG.
FWIW (not much) - I've never used IG or read The Atlantic.
There is simply far too much stuff on the Internet that's not memberwalled or paywalled.
There is simply far too much stuff on the Internet that's not memberwalled or paywalled.
When Facebook bought it, they prioritized growth over the product itself. This kills the product.
Today I did an experiment.
I opened up Facebook (the desktop version), scrolled down 40 times, and categorized every post I saw in my timeline. The result was roughly 30% ads, 30% "suggested" posts of random memes, 30% updates to pages I'm subscribed to by necessity (local clubs and such), and only 10% "real" content published by friends. An that last 10% was mostly people sharing or commenting on random pages I don't care about, not anything about their life.
So Facebook, which is still marketed a social network and a way to stay in touch with friends, is now to me 90% irrelevant (or mostly irrelevant) garbage. I'm only using it as a mailing list for the few communities I'm still subscribed to, and despite having close to 200 "friends" I have not interacted with any of them through Facebook in years, save for the occasional birthday wish. Maybe I would if my timeline had some of their content, but either it's being pushed at the bottom of the algorithm or maybe like me they just don't bother posting anything at all anymore.
It wasn't always like this. I'm old enough to remember Facebook's rise but young enough to have joined it when it was "hype", in my final years of high school. It looked nothing like today, your home feed was a constant buzzing of people sharing updates about their life and interacting organically. Yes, there were privacy concerns already, but it also tremendously helped me broaden my social circle and feel part of a community. It was very effective at the "social" part of "social network".
But then came the engagement maximization algorithms, the ads, the brands, the sponsored content, the atrocious UI updates...and slowly but surely people started leaving, because it was becoming harder and harder to parse signal from noise. I'm sure there's a generational rift element too (teenagers pretty much ignored Facebook after their parents started to join), but even people who grew up with it are leaving because it's a fundamentally different platform than it was back in 2010.
Seems like Instagram is taking a similar route. Makes you wonder if it's the fate of every social network to eventually decrepit and die.
I opened up Facebook (the desktop version), scrolled down 40 times, and categorized every post I saw in my timeline. The result was roughly 30% ads, 30% "suggested" posts of random memes, 30% updates to pages I'm subscribed to by necessity (local clubs and such), and only 10% "real" content published by friends. An that last 10% was mostly people sharing or commenting on random pages I don't care about, not anything about their life.
So Facebook, which is still marketed a social network and a way to stay in touch with friends, is now to me 90% irrelevant (or mostly irrelevant) garbage. I'm only using it as a mailing list for the few communities I'm still subscribed to, and despite having close to 200 "friends" I have not interacted with any of them through Facebook in years, save for the occasional birthday wish. Maybe I would if my timeline had some of their content, but either it's being pushed at the bottom of the algorithm or maybe like me they just don't bother posting anything at all anymore.
It wasn't always like this. I'm old enough to remember Facebook's rise but young enough to have joined it when it was "hype", in my final years of high school. It looked nothing like today, your home feed was a constant buzzing of people sharing updates about their life and interacting organically. Yes, there were privacy concerns already, but it also tremendously helped me broaden my social circle and feel part of a community. It was very effective at the "social" part of "social network".
But then came the engagement maximization algorithms, the ads, the brands, the sponsored content, the atrocious UI updates...and slowly but surely people started leaving, because it was becoming harder and harder to parse signal from noise. I'm sure there's a generational rift element too (teenagers pretty much ignored Facebook after their parents started to join), but even people who grew up with it are leaving because it's a fundamentally different platform than it was back in 2010.
Seems like Instagram is taking a similar route. Makes you wonder if it's the fate of every social network to eventually decrepit and die.
There are 3 reasons why Tiktok succeeded and Instagram struggles.
1) The focus of the Social Network is normal people, doing anything it might be interesting to others. Which is pretty much the contrary of Instagram which focus on Celebrities and "Friends".
2) Tiktok has an amazing fine-tuned Algorithm. Its like even a mirror of your subconscious, it tries very much to play anything you desire to see.
3) Instagram, Youtube and Twitter are full of ads. It just breaks the user experience. Youtube experience sucks too because they show Videos with higher probability of views which in turn are tipically big youtubers playing sponsored content.
1) The focus of the Social Network is normal people, doing anything it might be interesting to others. Which is pretty much the contrary of Instagram which focus on Celebrities and "Friends".
2) Tiktok has an amazing fine-tuned Algorithm. Its like even a mirror of your subconscious, it tries very much to play anything you desire to see.
3) Instagram, Youtube and Twitter are full of ads. It just breaks the user experience. Youtube experience sucks too because they show Videos with higher probability of views which in turn are tipically big youtubers playing sponsored content.
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Next time you're on a bus, or other public area, peek at what people are doing on their phones. I'd bet it will be Facebook or Instagram like 99% of the time. Maybe WhatsApp outside of the US, and possibly Youtube. These are the apps people are on almost all the time. They have absolutely massive user bases and are integral parts of most adult humans' lives. The idea these apps are "dying" is out of touch with reality.
Instagram, like many social networks, is what you make of it and who your friends are.
Pick friends and who you follow well and it's a great experience. Pictures and video are equally supported, discovery is good, search is the best of any social network IMO.
And pro-tip: if your discovery is too full of stuff you don't want, click stuff you don't want and click "not interested". It'll then remove similar posts from your discovery page in the future.
Pick friends and who you follow well and it's a great experience. Pictures and video are equally supported, discovery is good, search is the best of any social network IMO.
And pro-tip: if your discovery is too full of stuff you don't want, click stuff you don't want and click "not interested". It'll then remove similar posts from your discovery page in the future.
That's hardly the case anymore and it's one of the main points the article is making. It doesn't matter who you follow when well over half your feed is composed of ads, suggested reels, and two week old TikTok reposts from random strangers.
Instagram was over when all the “kids” were on Snapchat, except it wasn’t.
Maybe it is, but it will be a death by 500 million cuts, not a max exodus. There is no clear successor.
Maybe it is, but it will be a death by 500 million cuts, not a max exodus. There is no clear successor.
>There is no clear successor.
Successor to what? As if it serves some purpose? This is like wondering what will "successfully replace" a tumor that's to be removed...
(And, yes, you can have millions of users without service a purpose, at least not any useful one. All kinds of crap has).
Successor to what? As if it serves some purpose? This is like wondering what will "successfully replace" a tumor that's to be removed...
(And, yes, you can have millions of users without service a purpose, at least not any useful one. All kinds of crap has).
Author points to data showing 300m active users in 2013, 2b active users now, yet claims that Instagram is over. What is the replacement? Where is the decline?
Author is in what some would call an NYC cool kid media bubble, and you know, those cool kids aren't using it anymore, which means no on who matters does (2billion active dorks notwithstanding)
On more than a few occasions now I have loaded up my infrequently checked instagram accounts and been presented with something awful. They were always attention seeking reels from random accounts I don't follow; showing people being hurt or accident footage. I swipe up on the app and kill it pretty much straight away, then I consider deleting my instagram accounts once again.
And there’s no use relevant/usable alternative on the horizon. Except a few utopian (or shall I say purist) ones.
I guess one reason could be - even if someone wants to give it a shot they pretty much know that one of these behemoths will copy and drive them out, or buy them out but for that they need to have audience which is locked in vast corporate silos.
I guess one reason could be - even if someone wants to give it a shot they pretty much know that one of these behemoths will copy and drive them out, or buy them out but for that they need to have audience which is locked in vast corporate silos.
Instagram isn't over, but it is becoming passé, which is not a positive sign for an app built around making people look cool.
There are different segments on Instagram. Perhaps the "lifestyle blogger" or "influencer" has lost it's popularity. However, other audiences are still following different interests on Instagram. There are still thousands of artists (maybe millions) posting their art and illustrations, and still popular on Instagram.
I wonder if there’s a market for small app, limited in scope, knock off of the original Instagram. $1/month.
You end up having a cyclical problem, though:
No one uses it because no one posts > No one posts because they don't expect interaction > No one expects interaction because no one uses it
And then brands or influencers don't join because there's no potential to make money.
Part of the history of these big incumbents is that people were discovering a more user-friendly way to use the web through them; Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube all were "Hey, we can now do something we could do before, much easier, in a more accessible way that I can show to my normie friends/my parents."
Alternatives that DO come up, like 500px or Vimeo, end up needing to become more for enthusiasts (people who care about fidelity, rather than novelty), turning away normies in the process. That's fine for them, as long as their goal isn't to "be an alternative YouTube/Flickr."
No one uses it because no one posts > No one posts because they don't expect interaction > No one expects interaction because no one uses it
And then brands or influencers don't join because there's no potential to make money.
Part of the history of these big incumbents is that people were discovering a more user-friendly way to use the web through them; Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube all were "Hey, we can now do something we could do before, much easier, in a more accessible way that I can show to my normie friends/my parents."
Alternatives that DO come up, like 500px or Vimeo, end up needing to become more for enthusiasts (people who care about fidelity, rather than novelty), turning away normies in the process. That's fine for them, as long as their goal isn't to "be an alternative YouTube/Flickr."
There are reasons why IG has 2B people, part of which is not charging $1/month.
There are many email providers who are quite profitable by charging just that and are not afraid of Gmail's absolute dominance.
If you use one of those smaller paid email providers you can still interact with people who use Gmail. If you tried to create a small Instagram competitor it's unlikely that Facebook would ever agree to federate with you.
No, but you can federate with the millions of people already using other alternatives based on ActivityPub.
People are really underestimating the second order effects from the Twitter exodus. It's not just Twitter that has a competitor. It's just a matter of time until all the Fediverse gets enough of a critical mass and then all walled gardens will lose its appeal.
People are really underestimating the second order effects from the Twitter exodus. It's not just Twitter that has a competitor. It's just a matter of time until all the Fediverse gets enough of a critical mass and then all walled gardens will lose its appeal.
Well, and do those providers have 1.5 billion users like Gmail does?
I'm not really sure whether you made this analogy to disagree or to prove their point.
I'm not really sure whether you made this analogy to disagree or to prove their point.
Neither. The analogy was to say that their point was irrelevant. The fact that there is a network with 1.5B users does not prevent of a smaller, pay-to-join, network.
It obviously doesn't, plenty of space for niche players.
But it does prevent them from becoming the next 2B people social network which will default to becoming to go-to social media to connect with just about anyone you meet in the world.
A $1/month app won't replace Instagram (the article is about IG dying).
But it does prevent them from becoming the next 2B people social network which will default to becoming to go-to social media to connect with just about anyone you meet in the world.
A $1/month app won't replace Instagram (the article is about IG dying).
My sibling comment addressed this point: my bet [0] is that the next big social media network is not going to be a monopolistic walled garden, but it will be instead made by a constellation of federated providers. My belief is not that Instagram is going to be replaced by one niche app where people pay $1/month, but it will die and be replaced by thousands of smaller players who can interoperate:
- Newspapers, TV networks and streaming services who will offer a "free" account to their Mastodon (or similar) server for paying subscribers.
- "Influencers" who will be hosting their own ActivityPub servers
- Companies who will realize that they can put all their marketing communications under their own control and branding.
- Fringe communities who will be running their servers just because they can.
- Commercial providers who will look for something that can differentiate themselves (privacy, custom clients with special features) and charge for it.
- etc, etc, etc.
[0]: By bet, I mean that literally. This has been one of my side-projects and I've put already a non-negligible amount of time and money into it. Thanks to Musk, my service has seen more activity, signups and inquiries about custom hosting in the past 3 weeks than it has seen in the first 3 years.
- Newspapers, TV networks and streaming services who will offer a "free" account to their Mastodon (or similar) server for paying subscribers.
- "Influencers" who will be hosting their own ActivityPub servers
- Companies who will realize that they can put all their marketing communications under their own control and branding.
- Fringe communities who will be running their servers just because they can.
- Commercial providers who will look for something that can differentiate themselves (privacy, custom clients with special features) and charge for it.
- etc, etc, etc.
[0]: By bet, I mean that literally. This has been one of my side-projects and I've put already a non-negligible amount of time and money into it. Thanks to Musk, my service has seen more activity, signups and inquiries about custom hosting in the past 3 weeks than it has seen in the first 3 years.
https://pixelfed.org.
Tell me you are willing to pay $1/month, and I will stop postponing it and finally add it to https://communick.com
Tell me you are willing to pay $1/month, and I will stop postponing it and finally add it to https://communick.com
I’m sure there’s many but in the world of social media, content is key and users are what make that happen.
I tried using Peer Tube recently, felt like I was on 2005 YouTube...absolute no man’s land
I tried using Peer Tube recently, felt like I was on 2005 YouTube...absolute no man’s land
Pixelfed is the droid you're looking for. You can find a server to join at https://pixelfed.org and then support the project via Patreon for $1/month (or more).
Instagram was really nice until a few years ago. I could keep up visually with family and friends, and didn't have all advertorial, news and political garbage get in the way. Still good for talking to people, but a lot of that is moving to messenger apps not from Meta.
Figures.
It recently passed the mom test. My 70-something mom signing up for something is a strong signal it has peaked.
It recently passed the mom test. My 70-something mom signing up for something is a strong signal it has peaked.
An increase in ads seems to be desparation. It's an easy throttle when a company needs cash but there's a tipping point.
Protip: interact with a couple ads you like and you'll see mostly those instead of rando
Protip: interact with a couple ads you like and you'll see mostly those instead of rando
I never installed Instagram, but as I remember, it's an app to apply nice filters to photos you took with your phone. Do I confuse it with some other app or am I just getting old?
Walking through the mall yesterday, I was shocked to see 5+ adults watch FB Reels / IG / TikTok. I think FB might be right about video being the future.
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the login wall is what killed it for me. try this link in a private window:
https://instagram.com/p/ClCFeRSjOXo
if you hit refresh 5 times, even slowly, you get blocked until you login. I shouldn't have to login just to view a post.
https://instagram.com/p/ClCFeRSjOXo
if you hit refresh 5 times, even slowly, you get blocked until you login. I shouldn't have to login just to view a post.
"cool people are bored of some media consumption format"
What will be the next one?
A: hand drawn postcards
What will be the next one?
A: hand drawn postcards
I think it's more accurate to say The Atlantic is over before Instagram is.
We've been using Instagram more than any of the other social networks. Not making a TikTok account. YouTube lost me forever with their invasive ad push. Facebook lost me with its over the top moderation and irrelevant & useless ads. My Twitter account was suspended for a SNL quote.
Instagram currently has relevant and generally well done ads, if anything. The videos are also captivating and addictive and currently not littered with ads. I think that if they put ads in the Reels, they'd drive away a lot of traffic. Right now you almost don't notice some of the ads, and the ones you do notice are generally well done. That's a big difference right there, in my opinion.
Instagram has a lot of fun educational content & accounts. TikTok seems to lack that - it's a pool of misinformation more than education in my experience.
Definitely going to disagree with The Atlantic here.
We've been using Instagram more than any of the other social networks. Not making a TikTok account. YouTube lost me forever with their invasive ad push. Facebook lost me with its over the top moderation and irrelevant & useless ads. My Twitter account was suspended for a SNL quote.
Instagram currently has relevant and generally well done ads, if anything. The videos are also captivating and addictive and currently not littered with ads. I think that if they put ads in the Reels, they'd drive away a lot of traffic. Right now you almost don't notice some of the ads, and the ones you do notice are generally well done. That's a big difference right there, in my opinion.
Instagram has a lot of fun educational content & accounts. TikTok seems to lack that - it's a pool of misinformation more than education in my experience.
Definitely going to disagree with The Atlantic here.
Atlantic has been around for over 150 years. The kids are moving away from Instagram, so unless Instagram is going to wait out the next generation and hope the grandchildren are going to make accounts, they are going to run into issues.
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Instagram is the new Tumblr
That seems to be how social media services die. Too many ads, fewer users, revenue drop, more ads to boost revenue, still fewer users, irrelevance. This is called "pulling a Myspace".