Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement(news.airbnb.com)
news.airbnb.com
Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
https://news.airbnb.com/airbnb-announces-confidential-submission-of-draft-registration-statement/
117 comments
In all of my sales I have modified the offering midstream after feedback from investors that jumped through hoops to see how to invest and balked at the numbers. All advisors I've ever had all completely missed the mark about what the market is interested in and what a good deal looks like. And then after modifying its published publicly and that's the only record of what the terms ever were. In the public's mind we never mispriced or raised or lowered based on demand.
Confidential S-1's are perfect for that same result.
Confidential S-1's are perfect for that same result.
All of your sales? Have you founded multiple public companies or are you an investment banker or something?
> All advisors I've ever had all completely missed the mark about what the market is interested in and what a good deal looks like.
May I ask:
1. How many data points are you talking about? (how many pieces of advice? how many advisors?)
2. (In cases where quantitative analysis makes sense) what kind of statistics have you seen around percentage error?
May I ask:
1. How many data points are you talking about? (how many pieces of advice? how many advisors?)
2. (In cases where quantitative analysis makes sense) what kind of statistics have you seen around percentage error?
Confidential S-1's are reasonably new (2012) and limited to "emerging growth" companies. But yeah, I imagine most S-1s discussed on HN take advantage of that provision.
EDIT: ohh, that changed in 2017. Now all companies can file confidentially.
EDIT: ohh, that changed in 2017. Now all companies can file confidentially.
Here's another bear argument: the political tide is turning against them.
Lisbon and New York are just some of the cities that have made AirBNB more difficult. New York has made even a listing advertisement illegal if it's for a short-term (under 30 days) timeframe. Paris forced registrations and taxing some years back, which slashes the number of properties available. Politicians in Brooklyn constantly evoked AirBNB these past few years in gentrifying neighborhoods. Barcelona has had protests.
In an era of affordable housing becoming an issue, someone profiting off of short term sublets at the expense of longer-term residents (who have to deal with noise issues in addition to more scarcity of housing) will be targeted politically. Will COVID and the move from the cities offset that?
Lisbon and New York are just some of the cities that have made AirBNB more difficult. New York has made even a listing advertisement illegal if it's for a short-term (under 30 days) timeframe. Paris forced registrations and taxing some years back, which slashes the number of properties available. Politicians in Brooklyn constantly evoked AirBNB these past few years in gentrifying neighborhoods. Barcelona has had protests.
In an era of affordable housing becoming an issue, someone profiting off of short term sublets at the expense of longer-term residents (who have to deal with noise issues in addition to more scarcity of housing) will be targeted politically. Will COVID and the move from the cities offset that?
What action has Lisbon taken recently? I hadn't heard this until now.
They're market-friendly actions but there's still a political response: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/in-europe-covid-19-i...
edit: Basically they're offering landlords incentives to rent to the city which rents to workers and students. The article says that's 2000 apartments off the AirBNB (or "short term") platforms. That's some serious revenue.
Other cities and countries are also mentioned in this article, which is a few days old. It seems cities are taking advantage of the pandemic to pull housing back from AirBNB. The bear thesis gets stronger.
edit: Basically they're offering landlords incentives to rent to the city which rents to workers and students. The article says that's 2000 apartments off the AirBNB (or "short term") platforms. That's some serious revenue.
Other cities and countries are also mentioned in this article, which is a few days old. It seems cities are taking advantage of the pandemic to pull housing back from AirBNB. The bear thesis gets stronger.
I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews.
Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.
Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.
Another dark pattern is hiding the price until you are nearly booking the place. Most people want a cheap stay close to where they need to be, so they look on the prices on the map, which fail to include fees which can be all over the place depending on the host.
And the fees can be extreme. I recently tried to book a place before covid and the cleaning fees etc ended up being $400. I feel like this is a scheme landlords on airbnb are perpetrating which are similar to what used to go down on ebay years ago.
For ebay they did not take a cut of the shipping cost(typically their cut was around 10% of the final sale of an item) so sellers would list items at rock bottom prices but with shipping like 5x of what it should be so they could receive a maximum amount of money. I assume airbnb does not take a cut of cleaning costs?
For ebay they did not take a cut of the shipping cost(typically their cut was around 10% of the final sale of an item) so sellers would list items at rock bottom prices but with shipping like 5x of what it should be so they could receive a maximum amount of money. I assume airbnb does not take a cut of cleaning costs?
Some Ebay sellers still engage in this type of behavior and it's infuriating. Also sellers who use USPS but still won't ship to a PO BOX. I don't get it.
This hasn't been the case for years. If you choose the dates, the full price (including any fees) is included in the total.
It’s not included in the list/map view for your search, so you can’t really compare the actual price without individually visiting each listing
I just checked and it absolutely is included as long as you add dates. Of course it can't give you exact prices if they don't know when you'll be staying, prices change based on demand.
You’re right. They must have added it between the last time I used Airbnb. BUT I just checked it and the total price they display doesn’t include occupancy taxes and fees (so I saw an example listing go $420->$501). They still don’t let you filter by total price, only exposing nightly rate for that filter. It’s definitely better than it was but still not ideal. In fairness it’s been so long since I booked a non-expenses hotel I don’t even remember if it’s customary to exclude occupancy taxes+fees from the sticker price there
This was outlawed in Germany / the EU. So the price you see on the map includes cleaning and platform fees.
Chesky mentioned at one point he would look into this. I don’t see what’s so hard about computing the average price per day in the aggregate view though...
The cancellation policies are nuts too.
What’s nuts about the cancellation policies? Genuinely curious as I lead that team.
As a user it’s just frustrating to find a place you like and then see that you need to give them say two months notice. Or you can’t cancel at all.
It’s made me go back to hotels where you can usually cancel pretty freely.
There’s probably nothing you can do about that.
It’s made me go back to hotels where you can usually cancel pretty freely.
There’s probably nothing you can do about that.
There’s a range of flexibility offered including many homes that have free cancellation until 5 or 1 day before check-in. Some are on Stricter policies that are more strict than what you would find with hotels but homeowners also have different risk profiles and the policies help balance that risk out.
In my experience flexible cancellation policies are extremely rare. At least hotels have that one advantage.
I used to never care much but in 2020 it’s been a big deal. Will the main attraction in the area I’m visiting decide to close down or impose unreasonable restrictions? Will the entire state close down or make me quarantine?
There’s so much uncertainty with traveling these days.
There’s so much uncertainty with traveling these days.
I'm not even sure if that is a dark pattern rather than just poor design. In the end, you're just going to frustrate users who think they are paying $50/night over 7 nights but when they divide their final price by 7 it is $100/night.
The market can remain irrational far longer than one's ability to remain liquid :-)
You know, the moment the pandemic hit, the layoffs at Uber and Lyft came and the recent disappointing earnings and the worker classification ruling, it was just screaming "short me".
Lyft in particular offered some deranged predictions thinking this sort of market is sustainable and reaching "profitablity in 2021". This was them last year [0], this was them four months ago [1], and this is them now [2]. They seem to have used a malfunctioned crystal ball for that prediction.
Airbnb seems like they are now escaping for an IPO, but I'd rather short the stock until it reaches below its IPO price. This virus is not going away any time soon.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21328871
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23020812
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24114206
Lyft in particular offered some deranged predictions thinking this sort of market is sustainable and reaching "profitablity in 2021". This was them last year [0], this was them four months ago [1], and this is them now [2]. They seem to have used a malfunctioned crystal ball for that prediction.
Airbnb seems like they are now escaping for an IPO, but I'd rather short the stock until it reaches below its IPO price. This virus is not going away any time soon.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21328871
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23020812
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24114206
I don't really like Airbnb as a company but they are the only one out of the marketplace based unicorns who's unit economics seem really solid to me. I personally would not be against them.
Even in the world of COVID and restricted air travel?
I mean there are lots of city people escaping .. but how likely will that continue as cabins and beachhomes become too cold.
I mean there are lots of city people escaping .. but how likely will that continue as cabins and beachhomes become too cold.
Arguably AirBnB becomes the only safe travel option when compared to hotels.
Though neither survive a complete travel collapse.
Though neither survive a complete travel collapse.
Do you expect this to last for years/decades? I think it’s fair to say that the current climate is priced in.
Priced into what? Stock prices?
Branson had to dig into his purses to bail out Virgin recently. Layoffs are periodically occurring in the air travel world. No one knows precisely when it ends.
What does "priced in" mean? Some sort of perfect market pricing thesis manifesting or am I reading into it?
Branson had to dig into his purses to bail out Virgin recently. Layoffs are periodically occurring in the air travel world. No one knows precisely when it ends.
What does "priced in" mean? Some sort of perfect market pricing thesis manifesting or am I reading into it?
This thread is about Airbnb in particular. Yes I mean their stock price, from the perspective of whether or not Airbnb is a good investment.
What stock price, the IPO one? I don't know if you follow IPO price points, but they fluctuate wildly in the day of the IPO. Downvote or no, the idea that something like the pandemic is priced in doesn't even make sense given the volatility.
The world isn't going to shut down forever and no one is going to let a viable company die over a temporary circumstance.
Short the company -- not the stock.
1. Don't buy the stock.
2. Don't use the platform.
3. Tell others to do the same.
Also, for places you do like, alot of them can be booked without airbnb and they will charge you less as they are not being gouged 30% by airbnb. I always grab business cards/contact info for places I stay at that I really like on airbnb and if I plan on going back I skirt airbnb and deal directly with the houses owner/manager. More money to the owner, less to airbnb and cheaper for you, win all the way around.
[deleted]
This is super common for Uber in places where drivers/cars are rare and hard to find, and probably recommended in poor countries where people could use the income.
That's bad, because your life can be in the hands of your AirBnb host. https://medium.com/matter/living-and-dying-on-airbnb-6bff8d6... https://www.huffpost.com/entry/a-death-at-an-airbnb-rental-p...
There are going to be legitimate reasons for removing a review like bad writing, personal information, or foul language, but the net effect is making the listing appear better than it is, and that doesn't sit well with me.
There are going to be legitimate reasons for removing a review like bad writing, personal information, or foul language, but the net effect is making the listing appear better than it is, and that doesn't sit well with me.
There's a subreddit where the hosts tell each other how to remove reviews (the main airbnb one). One hint is any mention of location. Other than that, anything you can prove inaccurate is grounds for Airbnb to support the host and do that for them.
I used to have 5 star experiences and my last few were pretty negative, ranging from disgusting, to bad locations (not allowed to criticize location in reviews so you'll never know), to a toilet which required pushing things with brush. And more expensive than hotels.
I used to have 5 star experiences and my last few were pretty negative, ranging from disgusting, to bad locations (not allowed to criticize location in reviews so you'll never know), to a toilet which required pushing things with brush. And more expensive than hotels.
You shouldn't short a stock on the basis of you not liking it or based on X bad business practices. You should only short it if you believe that the market will perceive it as over valued, and the valuation will go down. That's it.
If there is enough people who do or don't like something that can drive large swings in a stocks price regardless the fundamentals. A few very recent examples would be TSLA and BYND.
Can you share an example of a place where you stayed at and the negative review was removed ? Would be great to see a before and after screenshot so that people are aware that this is happening
For privacy reasons, no.
But check the AirBNB reddit group for discussions by hosts on the topic, do some searches, there are instructions and hints for how to remove negative reviews. In summary: it's trivial.
But check the AirBNB reddit group for discussions by hosts on the topic, do some searches, there are instructions and hints for how to remove negative reviews. In summary: it's trivial.
I followed your advice and searched on the Airbnb reddit for advice on review removal. And the results are the opposite of what you indicated. All posts are about how incredibly difficult it is to get reviews removed from Airbnb [1]. And it seemed like hosts are frustrated that they cannot even remove unfair reviews.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/search/?q=removing%20review&...
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/search/?q=removing%20review&...
First off it's a host subreddit. Again, look for the tips on how to remove.
"ButchDeal Host5 points · 5 months ago
A little relevant comment in an otherwise mostly irrelevant review will not stop support from removing it. level 5 jackasseress 0 points · 5 months ago
This is simply not true level 6 ButchDeal Host2 points · 5 months ago
actually it is. I have had 4 removed (2 from early last year which were the hardest to do as they were from before the new policy ;) I also head up a local host support group for AirBnB and helped others get some removed as well.
It is in the discretion of the case worker but they have quite a bit of discretion on this, though just with other things occasionally you get a poor support person but I and others have gotten things removed."
(https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/fdyeim/damning_revi...)
Here's a one month ago experience similar to mine: https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/hg8tmy/my_opinion_o...
Here's a two year-old echo chamber of hosts: https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/73kdk9/airbnb_remov...
A recent echo-chamber dismissal of neg reviews removed: https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/i7jzby/i_had_a_revi...
Someone was edited: https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/3a1mgu/airbnb_edite...
https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/hed9xa/can_you_requ... Conversation about 'new review policy'
"ButchDeal Host5 points · 5 months ago
A little relevant comment in an otherwise mostly irrelevant review will not stop support from removing it. level 5 jackasseress 0 points · 5 months ago
This is simply not true level 6 ButchDeal Host2 points · 5 months ago
actually it is. I have had 4 removed (2 from early last year which were the hardest to do as they were from before the new policy ;) I also head up a local host support group for AirBnB and helped others get some removed as well.
It is in the discretion of the case worker but they have quite a bit of discretion on this, though just with other things occasionally you get a poor support person but I and others have gotten things removed."
(https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/fdyeim/damning_revi...)
Here's a one month ago experience similar to mine: https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/hg8tmy/my_opinion_o...
Here's a two year-old echo chamber of hosts: https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/73kdk9/airbnb_remov...
A recent echo-chamber dismissal of neg reviews removed: https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/i7jzby/i_had_a_revi...
Someone was edited: https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/3a1mgu/airbnb_edite...
https://www.reddit.com/r/AirBnB/comments/hed9xa/can_you_requ... Conversation about 'new review policy'
[deleted]
I heard that Airbnb's business is actually stronger in US and Europe now than pre-pandemic, as tourism shifts towards local and people shy away from hotels.
On the other hand, they're still in money saving mode, reducing ad spending and laying people off.
Anyone know what is going on?
On the other hand, they're still in money saving mode, reducing ad spending and laying people off.
Anyone know what is going on?
From knowledge of the travel industry:
1. Hotels are still in the dumps.
2. Single home rentals, a la VRBO and AirBnB, are doing fantastic as people decamp from urban areas and work remotely.
3. Urban rentals are in the shitter.
4. Shared spaces are also in the shitter.
AirBnB has a lot more urban inventory and shared spaces than for example VRBO (which was always more based around vacation destinations), but I have no idea if their split between urban and vacation destinations is an overall boon or hindrance for them.
1. Hotels are still in the dumps.
2. Single home rentals, a la VRBO and AirBnB, are doing fantastic as people decamp from urban areas and work remotely.
3. Urban rentals are in the shitter.
4. Shared spaces are also in the shitter.
AirBnB has a lot more urban inventory and shared spaces than for example VRBO (which was always more based around vacation destinations), but I have no idea if their split between urban and vacation destinations is an overall boon or hindrance for them.
I think you're overall on the money here, but I would probably be a bit more cautious on #3 (at least private units). Some of the managed rental providers that focus on urban markets seem to be doing OK. Sonder raised a new round in June[1], albeit after laying off part of their workforce.
1: https://shorttermrentalz.com/news/sonder-series-e-round-june...
1: https://shorttermrentalz.com/news/sonder-series-e-round-june...
I live in a very touristic neighborhood in Lisbon and several of the apartments in my building are rented full time through AirBnB & friends and it's definitely still a lot quieter than pre-covid, and we're in August when there should be tourists everywhere.
It's only one datapoint of course but from this very limited perspective it seems very hard for me to believe that their business would be stronger now than pre-covid.
But hotels are probably suffering even more, that's true.
It's only one datapoint of course but from this very limited perspective it seems very hard for me to believe that their business would be stronger now than pre-covid.
But hotels are probably suffering even more, that's true.
Personally I’d love to spend some time in Lisbon but as an American I’m pretty sure I (rightly) wouldn’t be allowed in your country. So travel restrictions are probably the issue there
Sure, that's part of the problem, but I think that's not a purely Portuguese thing. Hence why I have some difficulty believing that AirBnB would be thriving right now.
This is at least as far as the UK goes, Brighton 2 weekend ago was £430 for 2 nights for 2 people in the Mercure which is kinda well meh facility wise.
Hotels basically are either closed for renovation or jacked up the prices while closing down everything that they had as an advantage over AB&B.
The restaurant is closed, there is no room cleaning unless you explicitly book it a day in advance, the gym, spa and pools are closed and so are all other in-house attractions and services such as the children play areas, lounges, media rooms etc.
So you have higher prices than pre-pandemic in many places due to them having to recoup their losses and a much much much worst service than usual which already in many places in Europe was a hit and miss outside of the large resorts and world renowned hotels the hotel service and overall quality in Europe is pretty shite.
Hotels basically are either closed for renovation or jacked up the prices while closing down everything that they had as an advantage over AB&B.
The restaurant is closed, there is no room cleaning unless you explicitly book it a day in advance, the gym, spa and pools are closed and so are all other in-house attractions and services such as the children play areas, lounges, media rooms etc.
So you have higher prices than pre-pandemic in many places due to them having to recoup their losses and a much much much worst service than usual which already in many places in Europe was a hit and miss outside of the large resorts and world renowned hotels the hotel service and overall quality in Europe is pretty shite.
Another big factor in Airbnb, like other "platforms" like this vs their traditional counterparts, they have no assets that incurr costs no matter how down the market it
Hilton, Marriott, etc all still have MASSIVE amounts of physical property that they have to maintain year around no matter if they are full or empty. Airbnb has none of those costs.
This makes them more flexible and are able to quickly respond to changes in the travel market, more so than their traditional competitors
Hilton, Marriott, etc all still have MASSIVE amounts of physical property that they have to maintain year around no matter if they are full or empty. Airbnb has none of those costs.
This makes them more flexible and are able to quickly respond to changes in the travel market, more so than their traditional competitors
Actually Marriott works with a franchise model. If the franchisee goes bankrupt, that's a problem for Marriott... but it is also a problem for Airbnb (many owners of several properties are going bankrupt).
As an anecdote, I had an Airbnb stay in Rome but the landlord went bankrupt due to Covid and had to close the business.
As an anecdote, I had an Airbnb stay in Rome but the landlord went bankrupt due to Covid and had to close the business.
Depending on the city some hotels aren't doing as poorly as you might expect. LA has been running project roomkey during this pandemic, where they basically pay for a hotel or motel room for homeless people.
Marriott doesn't own their hotels, they lease them from third party owners. I would wager that Hilton is doing the same.
I dont know about the Marriott family of brands specifically but I would image like most large companies in this sector they have a Mix of Franchisees and Direct owned properties.
Hilton Certainly does under several of its brands.
This Franchise model does not change my statement really at all, as it is far different model than what airbnb has
Hilton Certainly does under several of its brands.
This Franchise model does not change my statement really at all, as it is far different model than what airbnb has
Do they lease them? I got the impression that it’s closer to a franchise model (for all major chains)
Does leasing change the fact that you still need to maintain the property and pay the lease?
I moved back to Rome from Milan because I knew that without tourism (from US in particular) rents would go down
I'm now in the process of choosing between 2 houses both in the most exclusive part of the city centre, a thing I could only dream of until few months ago, at the same price I was renting an apartment in Milan in an average neighborhood
Most of the listings are former Airbnb places, you can tell when you visit the houses that packing up so many beds to maximize profit didn't pay, that level of service could only be acceptable by youngsters looking for a cheap place to crash during the two nights spent in Rome with friends, but it actually lowered the real value of the apartments a lot, to the point that many of them are corridors with the same number of rooms and bathrooms, but not a living room or a kitchen, hence impossible to live in unless you enjoy suffering.
Unfortunately for them young tourists and cheap flights will not come back for at least a few years
So now their properties are basically worthless
Agencies that were managing the properties have abandoned the business or are selling their licenses (good luck with that!) and owners have to face the choice of renewing and waiting at least next year to start renting again or lower the prices and avoid more losses, but accept a long term contract which binds them for at least 3+2 years
As I said many of them are not worth it even if the rent went down considerably so it's not even easy to rent in this economy, even owning an apartment in a super exclusive neighborhood rented at half the price, also considering that people who can afford it don't pay for shitty places full of sofa-beds and cheap furniture.
all the listings say the same thing "NO AIRBNB, NO HOLIDAY RENTALS, NO AGENCIES" they only want to deal with medium-long term rentals with trusted people after checking their income.
I'm quite sure even after covid airbnb and all the businesses around it won't come back, at least not in Rome, not in the same way, people are fed up with mass tourism and businesses are starting to enjoy working more with locals who actually live in the neighborhood, like it used to be not so long ago, but were forced to leave by the "tourist-pay-double-for-shit" craze.
It happened and until it worked, it worked, but when it stopped it left ruins
I think people have opened their eyes
Airbnb will still be the preferred way to rent a van on a beautiful beach on a Greek island where a couple can spend few romantic nights, but the idea that it was going to improve the fabric of our old cities is dead IMO
I'm now in the process of choosing between 2 houses both in the most exclusive part of the city centre, a thing I could only dream of until few months ago, at the same price I was renting an apartment in Milan in an average neighborhood
Most of the listings are former Airbnb places, you can tell when you visit the houses that packing up so many beds to maximize profit didn't pay, that level of service could only be acceptable by youngsters looking for a cheap place to crash during the two nights spent in Rome with friends, but it actually lowered the real value of the apartments a lot, to the point that many of them are corridors with the same number of rooms and bathrooms, but not a living room or a kitchen, hence impossible to live in unless you enjoy suffering.
Unfortunately for them young tourists and cheap flights will not come back for at least a few years
So now their properties are basically worthless
Agencies that were managing the properties have abandoned the business or are selling their licenses (good luck with that!) and owners have to face the choice of renewing and waiting at least next year to start renting again or lower the prices and avoid more losses, but accept a long term contract which binds them for at least 3+2 years
As I said many of them are not worth it even if the rent went down considerably so it's not even easy to rent in this economy, even owning an apartment in a super exclusive neighborhood rented at half the price, also considering that people who can afford it don't pay for shitty places full of sofa-beds and cheap furniture.
all the listings say the same thing "NO AIRBNB, NO HOLIDAY RENTALS, NO AGENCIES" they only want to deal with medium-long term rentals with trusted people after checking their income.
I'm quite sure even after covid airbnb and all the businesses around it won't come back, at least not in Rome, not in the same way, people are fed up with mass tourism and businesses are starting to enjoy working more with locals who actually live in the neighborhood, like it used to be not so long ago, but were forced to leave by the "tourist-pay-double-for-shit" craze.
It happened and until it worked, it worked, but when it stopped it left ruins
I think people have opened their eyes
Airbnb will still be the preferred way to rent a van on a beautiful beach on a Greek island where a couple can spend few romantic nights, but the idea that it was going to improve the fabric of our old cities is dead IMO
The timing is certainly interesting...
Presuming Airbnb makes it through the crisis, they're set up for many quarters of blistering earnings "growth" as things return to normal.
Presuming Airbnb makes it through the crisis, they're set up for many quarters of blistering earnings "growth" as things return to normal.
Brian Chesky pretty much said exactly this in his interview with Guy Raz on How I Built This a week or so ago.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=594606847885635
https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=594606847885635
I highly doubt they make more money now than before covid.
There aren't further layoffs, this information is inaccurate.
Local tourism is fine but international is not. Airline travel is not fully functional yet.
Right. How can AirBNB be hopping with airlines down 70-80 percent?
they are benefiting from rise of the "local summer getaway" but that's only one season of the year. what happens in the fall and winter? and to business travel?
organizational bloat.
IBM lawsuit
https://www.forbes.com/sites/washingtonbytes/2020/03/13/airb...
> Thes patents at issue are used primarily in e-commerce—and some of them date back to the time of dial-up technologies such as Prodigy.
Dial-up era!? Patents shouldn't last that long! This is centuries in technology!
I think the only valid use for software patents (if there are any at all), is to prevent bigger players from moving into your space. But small companies don't have the time, energy, or money to wage fights in the courtroom. They have pressing existential issues.
Companies without products are patent trolls and shouldn't be permitted to have them. If you "invent" yet don't do anything with it, what good are you to society?
Ossified and decaying companies like IBM shouldn't be allowed to trample upstarts.
It's all so backwards.
> Thes patents at issue are used primarily in e-commerce—and some of them date back to the time of dial-up technologies such as Prodigy.
Dial-up era!? Patents shouldn't last that long! This is centuries in technology!
I think the only valid use for software patents (if there are any at all), is to prevent bigger players from moving into your space. But small companies don't have the time, energy, or money to wage fights in the courtroom. They have pressing existential issues.
Companies without products are patent trolls and shouldn't be permitted to have them. If you "invent" yet don't do anything with it, what good are you to society?
Ossified and decaying companies like IBM shouldn't be allowed to trample upstarts.
It's all so backwards.
US patents last 20 years, which is pretty reasonable. Prodigy ran until 2001, just under 20 years ago.
Wow, I didn't hear about this. How sad that IBM is now a patent troll.
Yeah. Unfortunately it's a nontrivial source of revenue.
In 2018 they sued Groupon for $167m and got $83m.
Interesting quotes from an article [0] reporting on it include:
> In 2017 IBM generated about $1.2 billion in revenue from its licensing activities.
> An IBM licensing executive testified that Amazon, Facebook, Google, LinkedIn and Twitter have each paid IBM $20 million to $50 million as part of cross-licensing deals that gave them access to the patent portfolio.
> IBM lawyer John Desmarais told jurors the company had no choice but to sue after Groupon refused to take responsibility for using IBM’s foundational technology.
> “The verdict is a vindication for IBM’s licensing program,” Desmarais said by phone.
It looks like they've been at it for a while, too. They sued Amazon in 2006 [1]. Quotes from that reporting:
> IBM alleges that Amazon.com knowingly exploits its intellectual property by infringing on several patents that cover, among other things, the presentation of applications in an interactive service, the storage of data in an interactive network, the presentation of advertising in an interactive service, and the ordering of items from an electronic catalog.
While doing some digging, I stumbled across this [2] super interesting scoop on how IBM views and remunerates successful patent-applicant-employees, from 2001. Makes sense to give out bonuses for patents, when they weaponize them this way.
Gross. :/
[0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ibm-groupon-lawsuit-idUSK...
[1]: https://www.computerworld.com/article/2547652/ibm-sues-amazo...
[2]: https://www.eetimes.com/ees-want-a-bigger-piece-of-patent-ro...
In 2018 they sued Groupon for $167m and got $83m.
Interesting quotes from an article [0] reporting on it include:
> In 2017 IBM generated about $1.2 billion in revenue from its licensing activities.
> An IBM licensing executive testified that Amazon, Facebook, Google, LinkedIn and Twitter have each paid IBM $20 million to $50 million as part of cross-licensing deals that gave them access to the patent portfolio.
> IBM lawyer John Desmarais told jurors the company had no choice but to sue after Groupon refused to take responsibility for using IBM’s foundational technology.
> “The verdict is a vindication for IBM’s licensing program,” Desmarais said by phone.
It looks like they've been at it for a while, too. They sued Amazon in 2006 [1]. Quotes from that reporting:
> IBM alleges that Amazon.com knowingly exploits its intellectual property by infringing on several patents that cover, among other things, the presentation of applications in an interactive service, the storage of data in an interactive network, the presentation of advertising in an interactive service, and the ordering of items from an electronic catalog.
While doing some digging, I stumbled across this [2] super interesting scoop on how IBM views and remunerates successful patent-applicant-employees, from 2001. Makes sense to give out bonuses for patents, when they weaponize them this way.
Gross. :/
[0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ibm-groupon-lawsuit-idUSK...
[1]: https://www.computerworld.com/article/2547652/ibm-sues-amazo...
[2]: https://www.eetimes.com/ees-want-a-bigger-piece-of-patent-ro...
Reality still hasn't hit the travel industry yet. We still haven't even begun to see the impact of covid on the economy start to unravel.
Business travel is done, but this is where a huge amount of airline and hotel profits come from. Travel is dirt cheap right now because, at least in the US, airlines have to fly. They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September. But once they can I suspect we'll see very different behavior for airlines.
Beyond that we still haven't started to feel the full impact of all the job losses, and the people who remain employed but at substantially lower rates, or in more volunerable positions.
The relatively young travelers that make up a lot of AirBnb's business, have largely not been concerned about the virus, certainly aren't concerned about future economic impacts and have mostly seen cheap flights with hotels unwilling to book so they head to a rental.
These are travelers whose optimism is based on a decade+ of perpetual economic growth. Even those losing their jobs don't really believe that there can be a prolonged period where it's hard to find work.
I believe that this coming Fall will bring a lot of reality to the forefront. I suspect leadership at AirBNB has similar thoughts and wants to get that IPO before the buzzer.
Business travel is done, but this is where a huge amount of airline and hotel profits come from. Travel is dirt cheap right now because, at least in the US, airlines have to fly. They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September. But once they can I suspect we'll see very different behavior for airlines.
Beyond that we still haven't started to feel the full impact of all the job losses, and the people who remain employed but at substantially lower rates, or in more volunerable positions.
The relatively young travelers that make up a lot of AirBnb's business, have largely not been concerned about the virus, certainly aren't concerned about future economic impacts and have mostly seen cheap flights with hotels unwilling to book so they head to a rental.
These are travelers whose optimism is based on a decade+ of perpetual economic growth. Even those losing their jobs don't really believe that there can be a prolonged period where it's hard to find work.
I believe that this coming Fall will bring a lot of reality to the forefront. I suspect leadership at AirBNB has similar thoughts and wants to get that IPO before the buzzer.
I’m not so sure. Look at Sweden, look at NYC. The numbers ain’t going up again until now. There have been pandemics before, that’s not the first one. And after the pandemic everything will be as before.
> They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September.
The WARN letters for October 1 layoffs have all already gone out. They needed to be out before August 1st. So we'll know of any further layoffs with two months notice.
The WARN letters for October 1 layoffs have all already gone out. They needed to be out before August 1st. So we'll know of any further layoffs with two months notice.
I think the big bucks for AirBnb in the future are in the medium-long term rental market, not the vacation market. The >1 month rentals also happen to bypass most of the regulations they're having issues with.
I dont think they have any competitive advantage there.
Am I the only one who is super eager for them to go public so that I can short them?
I'm super eager for the opposite reason: I want to go long. In 3 years people's travel habits will mostly be back to normal, and AirBnb has a very strong competitive moat
I think they're moat is more of a wading pond. They've relied on user interface dark patterns and sleaziness far too much. They're highly political, which has alienated a lot of people who disagree with their politics. People who DO agree are also likely to dislike what Airbnb has done to rents in many places. Basically, a lot of people hate them.
That stickiness goes away when a credible competitor steps in.
I think if an organization like Google were to start listing similar listing on Maps alongside hotels, they'd be done for. If a competitor were to start with listings on several major travel websites (and easy way to do that is by taking them on as investors), that would also overcome any such moat.
I think whether they do okay or not depends more on the credibility of the competition than on any moat.
That stickiness goes away when a credible competitor steps in.
I think if an organization like Google were to start listing similar listing on Maps alongside hotels, they'd be done for. If a competitor were to start with listings on several major travel websites (and easy way to do that is by taking them on as investors), that would also overcome any such moat.
I think whether they do okay or not depends more on the credibility of the competition than on any moat.
I don't believe they have a strong competitive moat at all. They don't own the properties they rent, there are a myriad of other services that the exact same properties can list on. They have market/mind share but that can easily wane.
What's their moat?
The main one to me is network effect. Hosts will join the platform because there are renters there, renters will join because there are hosts.
You should also be a chef because people will never stop eating.
This is a train that went away a long time ago. AirBNB is slowing down and becoming the yellow pages/TripAdvisor of the internet (that is very clear in terms of the commodification of the review process).
It doesn’t mean they will fail, however you can’t just state they will grow forever.
This is a train that went away a long time ago. AirBNB is slowing down and becoming the yellow pages/TripAdvisor of the internet (that is very clear in terms of the commodification of the review process).
It doesn’t mean they will fail, however you can’t just state they will grow forever.
> You should also be a chef because people will never stop eating.
Not sure how this has anything to do with the network effect point I brought up. I definitely never stated they will "grow forever", I said the network effects of their platform are a sort of moat.
Do you have a source for AirBNB slowing down?
Not sure how this has anything to do with the network effect point I brought up. I definitely never stated they will "grow forever", I said the network effects of their platform are a sort of moat.
Do you have a source for AirBNB slowing down?
You brought up a very obvious point.
Any marketplace will benefit from network effects. The devil is in the extent to which you can take advantage of these. And you made no points about that.
Any marketplace will benefit from network effects. The devil is in the extent to which you can take advantage of these. And you made no points about that.
Sure, my comment wasn't great. Was just surprised by the chef thing since it seemed like a non sequitur.
Do you have the source about the slowdown? Really curious.
Do you have the source about the slowdown? Really curious.
As soon as a competitor comes along that is better for landlords, renters or has a good marketing campaign people will move.
The network effect is not that of Facebook where you would have to convince all your friends and family to sign up and start using a new site/app.
I suppose they could just buy the competitor like Facebook does, assuming another large corp is not behind it.
The network effect is not that of Facebook where you would have to convince all your friends and family to sign up and start using a new site/app.
I suppose they could just buy the competitor like Facebook does, assuming another large corp is not behind it.
Better how?
Though, I agree the network effect here isn't as strong as for a social network.
Though, I agree the network effect here isn't as strong as for a social network.
There's the old saying, It's Probably Overpriced. Not just tech stocks, not just Airbnb.
We wrote similar comments at almost the same time. Yes and Yes.
They're a pretty shady experience as a guest, so on a personal level I'm upset (per other comment). There's a pandemic and economic catastrophe, so there's a good bear argument that adds to the already bear argument that cities around the world are cracking down on AirBNB rentals because they're easy political targets.
They're a pretty shady experience as a guest, so on a personal level I'm upset (per other comment). There's a pandemic and economic catastrophe, so there's a good bear argument that adds to the already bear argument that cities around the world are cracking down on AirBNB rentals because they're easy political targets.
Good luck with that. In this market stonks only go up.
Why do you think AirBNB will be overvalued?
Because this happens with every SV company that is often in the news.
I'm long term bullish too, but most companies don't take off after their IPO. I like the approach of buying the stock and selling calls on top of them (to also capitalize on high IV).
My zoom stock is doing quite well, thank you very much.
Pagerduty was a letdown, though.
Pagerduty was a letdown, though.
SV Bubble v real world is a 30% discount minimum.
I'm eager for them to go public so people who short them can lose their shirts.
It seems highly likely that you are not, and therefore that this trade is much less of an obvious win than you appear to assume.
What do you mean? If lots of people short a stock, the crowdedness are borrow costs, or a short squeeze if things go south (or should I say north).
It's a see-saw here. The lower it goes the lower it will go.
It's a see-saw here. The lower it goes the lower it will go.
As someone who was looking into escaping the city for a bit on AirBnb a couple months ago, I think they might be doing better than many people think.
You'd think so but my brother started an extended WFH road trip and his first booking (after a very long drive) ended up going to hell due to the host not having the place ready and to top it off Airbnb has some crazy policies such as: if you have any issue it's a 100% refund (ok, great you think) but since there is no leeway to even attempt to work something out with a host, the host will always leave poor feedback, which (get this) you can not view unless you leave a review. Bonkers.
Not worth the trouble for people who have enough money to not want to worry about the hassle and headache.
Travel might come back but one thing I'm more confident that the pandemic has changed is awareness and empathy for systemic inequities in our society. Uber and Lyft are currently dealing with an existential crisis to their business model in California that I think will reverberate into housing eg greater empathy across cities on issues related to affordable housing and how Airbnb has crowded out would be renters and buyers for what are essentially illegal hotels.
Also with business travel being depressed for quite some time I doubt many business travelers would be looking to Airbnb to get a deal when hotel prices will be depressed for the foreseeable future.
Also with business travel being depressed for quite some time I doubt many business travelers would be looking to Airbnb to get a deal when hotel prices will be depressed for the foreseeable future.
Airbnb might just IPO in time before the first batch of RSUs expire later this year.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/technology/airbnb-employe...
[1] https://www.teamblind.com/post/Early-AirBnB-Employees-IPO-NB...
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/technology/airbnb-employe...
[1] https://www.teamblind.com/post/Early-AirBnB-Employees-IPO-NB...
I'm very curious to see what their public valuation will be, but at the same time the market seems to be doin its own thing, so perhaps's it'll do great.
But all things considered, it's pretty clear that everything is too volatile right now, but AirBnB is being pressured to IPO anyway. If the market doesn't have an appetite for travel, I foresee a lot of recent AirBnB hires taking a huge haircut on their total comp.
But all things considered, it's pretty clear that everything is too volatile right now, but AirBnB is being pressured to IPO anyway. If the market doesn't have an appetite for travel, I foresee a lot of recent AirBnB hires taking a huge haircut on their total comp.
Ah, yes, the classic go public to try to save the sinking ship move. Buy your pet rock while it's hot, people!
[deleted]
What's confidential is the contents of the filing, not the fact.
All the initial S-1 filings I'm aware of are confidential. After amendments (S-1A filings), the resulting document can be made public. At this time, any details of offering are still volatile, and there's no reason to force companies to publish that information until the final offering details are solid.